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    Cubs 8, Twins 2: Joe Ryan Leaves Early, Lots of Things Fall Apart At Once


    Theodore Tollefson

    Start went crazy; the rubber match went snap. Now we have to find out who'll hold it down til Ryan gets back.

    Image courtesy of David Banks

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher:
    Joe Ryan 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (33 pitches, 22 strikes (66.7% strikes))
    Home Runs: None
    Top 3 WPA: Max Kepler .143, Matt Wallner .089, Carlos Santana .034, 
    Bottom 3 WPA: Trevor Richards -.347, Willi Castro -.100, Austin Martin -.094

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    Screenshot2024-08-07162243.png.9e3354a076357b1e69681f43d5736bc1.png

    Getting Runs Early 
    Following Tuesday night’s 8-3 loss, the Twins bats determined to get on the board early in this one. Trevor Larnach drew a one-out walk in the top of the first, and two batters later, Matt Wallner drilled an RBI double to right-center to drive him in and put the Twins up 1-0.

    That lead was shortlived, but the Twins offense continued to be a thorn in Cubs starter Javier Assad’s side. Carlos Santana and Max Kepler led off the second with back-to-back singles. With one out, Brooks Lee was up. He battled out a 12-pitch at-bat and managed an RBI groundout to score Santana and give the Twins back the lead again. 

    The Joe Ryan Experience Makes a Sudden Stop
    Joe Ryan had heavy expectations on him on Wednesday afternoon. He’d be making the Twins' last start before a four-game series against the Guardians at home, and he needed to do his part to ensure a win before a pivotal series for the American League Central takes place.

    Ryan struck out Ian Happ on three quick pitches to begin the game. The next batter, Cubs first baseman and Minnesota native Michael Busch, would not make things so easy. On a 2-2 count, Ryan threw a 94.1 MPH fastball right down the middle for Busch, who crushed it for a solo home run to right-center field.

    Ryan would have a quick 10-pitch, 1-2-3 second inning. But things turned for the worse in the third. After throwing only four pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ryan had a visit on the mound from Twins trainer Nick Paparesta. Whatever Ryan felt on the previous two pitches didn’t sit right with him, and Ryan removed himself from the game after facing only eight batters. He was diagnosed with triceps tightness, which could mean any number of things. Now, we wait.

    Unexpected Bullpen Game
    Trevor Richards was the first man out of the Twins bullpen following Ryan’s exit from the game. He came in inheriting a 1-2 count on Crow-Armstrong, threw two balls outside the strike zone, then allowed a base hit into right field to get one of the Cubs' deadliest baserunners on. 

    Things would not get any easier for Richards, as his command of the strike zone was not there. He walked three batters in the bottom of the third, including a bases-loaded freebie to Seiya Suzuki that tied the game. Suzuki’s RBI walk was followed by a sacrifice fly from Isaac Parades that gave the Cubs a 3-2 lead.

    Richards did not even make it out of the third inning after throwing 41 pitches, walking five batters, and having only 17 of those 41 pitches landed for strikes. 

    Cole Sands came into the game to mop up Richards's mess, getting Dansby Swanson to ground out and keep the Twins out of further damage only trailing 4-2.

    Sands would remain on for the fourth, and while his command of the strike zone was much better than Richards's, the results were just as bad. After Christian Bethancourt hit a one-out double, Happ drilled a 96.5 MPH fastball down and in for a two-run shot to extend the Cubs lead to 6-2. Fortunately, Sands would regain his composure and avert any further damage as he retired the final two batters.

    Josh Winder threw only 10 pitches to get the Twins through the fifth without the deficit growing. He remained in the game for the bottom half of the sixth and was once again perfect, getting a groundout and two strikeouts on just 13 pitches. He did allow a hit in the seventh, but held Chicago scoreless for a third frame in a row. In the meantime, though, zeros piled up on the Twins' row of the scoreboard.

    Caleb Thielbar was the Twins' last man out of the bullpen Wednesday, and things did not go well for him. The Cubs managed to get three hits and score two more insurance runs off him, all but securing their win with an 8-2 lead. 

    Bats go Cold After Ryan's Exit 
    While the Twins were able to get at least one base runner in each inning from the 4th to the 6th, they managed to leave each runner stranded. Kepler drew a walk in the fourth and was left behind, José Miranda had a two-out double in the fifth, but saw no help from Wallner who struck out swinging. Santana had his second hit of the game in the sixth, but was left stranded.
    The trend continued into the seventh inning, as Lee had a leadoff single, but was out on a force out at second hit by Willi Castro.

    Aside from Austin Martin getting hit by a pitch in the top of the ninth, the Twins combined to go 0-for-6 with no base runners in the last two innings, leaving five runners on base after Ryan's departure.

    Other Notes
    Ryan’s injury exit from the game was announced to be a right triceps injury. This was the first time all season Ryan left a game due to injury. More details are to come following the Twins postgame.

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins are off on Thursday but will return home for their biggest series of the summer against the Cleveland Guardians. They will play a doubleheader Friday against Cleveland with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland as their starters. The Twins have yet to announce who is starting which game. Game 1 starts at 4:10 p.m.

    Postgame Interview 
    Coming soon.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
    Screenshot2024-08-07161851.png.c812ee270f0db0f38e6a652daee059fd.png

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    19 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    Ehh. Even granting the premise that Richards isn't a long-relief guy, you don't bring in your long relief guy (especially an injury-prone one like Winder) to replace the injured starter. You go to a short reliever who should be able to get hot in a hurry, and then you warm the long reliever to come in the following inning. I thought RB managed the miserable situation fine; sometimes it's just a bad situation and can't be ameliorated.

    Said it first and said it best. My thoughts exactly

    3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I think you're probably right here. Varland comes up as the 27th man who pitches the second game Friday. He then goes back to St. Paul. SWR goes Saturday, Festa Sunday, Lopez Monday. Ober goes Wednesday so that leaves Tuesday to cover. Too soon to bring Varland back so I think they probably go with either Winder or Dobank as an opener in a bullpen game.

    The other wildcard here is  when they bring up Topa. You have to think that either Dobnak or Winder goes back to AAA to make room unless they decide to put Ryan on the IL. Based on the incredibly small sample size so far, the obvious choice to go back down is Dobnak.  My guess is they bring Topa up for the Cleveland series so my guess is that Ryan goes on the IL today or tomorrow for Topa and one of those two will be the opener next Tuesday. They're also going to have to make room for Okert soon. He has to come back from the bereavement list after seven days, which I think might be Tuesday the 13th but hopefully is Wednesday the 14th. Topa up today or tomorrow, then Okert for Winder or Dobnak next Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully on Wednesday the 14th after Winder starts on the 13th. and then Varland up for whichever one of Winder or Dobnak is still on the roster so he can start next Friday the 16th.

    The other potential wildcard is whether there's a waiver claim or recently released guy they can pick up to start Tuesday. That would probably mean a DFA of Dobnak, since no one will pick up his contract and he can then be reassigned to AAA. Fun times.

    IMO, Varland is worth about 3 Dobnak’s! If they send Varland down after Friday, they can’t bring him back for 10 days - to me, that doesn’t work. Ryan will definitely go to IL - Hopefully, Topa for Dobnak as well for this weekend! Varland is now #5 guy in the rotation, for at least a month….,not going anywhere. I still think Matthews is a better risk than an opener approach on Tuesday.

    3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    IMO, Varland is worth about 3 Dobnak’s! If they send Varland down after Friday, they can’t bring him back for 10 days - to me, that doesn’t work. Ryan will definitely go to IL - Hopefully, Topa for Dobnak as well for this weekend! Varland is now #5 guy in the rotation, for at least a month….,not going anywhere. I still think Matthews is a better risk than an opener approach on Tuesday.

    It's my understanding that if Varland comes up designated as the 27th man for a doubleheader they can send him back down and call him up without waiting 10 days. That's a "free" move. I agree, he is a better call than Dobnak now that we need a starter for Tuesday.  The problem is that if he pitches Friday he won't be ready to come back by Tuesday so we'll have to find someone else. 

    I think maybe Matthews on a piggyback might be a good approach. Give Matthews basically one or two times through the order, then Winder, and hope you've covered 6 innings. I think Matthews going much more than once or certainly twice through could be a recipe for disaster once MLB hitters see his stuff. His AAA results show that he isn't a finished product yet. 

    6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

     If they send Varland down after Friday, they can’t bring him back for 10 days - to me, that doesn’t work. 

    False.

    A player brought up as the 27th man for a doubleheader isn't subject to the normal rules regarding recalls. He could be the 27th man tomorrow, returned the next day, and be recalled at any time.

    https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/27th-man

    20 hours ago, South Dakota Tom said:

    So I get using Varland Friday with Ober as he’s 27th man.  Does Festa pitch Saturday then and SWR on Sunday?  Push Lopez back to Monday against the Royals….we still need a starter for Tuesday before getting back to regular rest (assuming, I guess, that Joe will miss a turn).  Votes?  Bullpen game seems like a stretch looking at the usage chart above.

    The PLAN can’t be a bullpen “opener” game in the 6th game of 7 games in 6 days.

    I cannot imagine it isn’t Matthews at this point on Tuesday. It’s too soon for him but they really don’t have any other plausible options that I’m aware of right now. Is there another starter at AAA that may be able to perform better than Dobnak? He’s not good enough to try on Tuesday!




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