Astros 3, Twins 2: Houston Walks-Off Duran and the Twins

SP: Joe Ryan 7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (93 pitches, 59 strikes (63%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.368), Matt Wallner (-.170), Willi Castro (-.148)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

The Twins have gone 1-3 over their past four games, surrendering an average of 13 runs in the three losses, while only allowing two runs in their lone victory. Joe Ryan took the hill as the current ace of the Minnesota staff, with a 7-2 record and an ERA creeping towards the land of "less than three." With the offense struggling, and the pitching staff reeling, Ryan needed to deliver another gem if the Twins were going to have any chance of winning in Houston. Unfortunately, the Astros also had their ace going in Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.76 ERA). Add in the fact that Royce Lewis was going to be spending his Saturday afternoon getting an MRI on his injured hamstring, and Twins fans' were in dire straits. Would the Twins be getting money for nothing, or would they surprise everyone and become sultans of swing?

Brown Better than Advertised
The silver lining in Brown's stat line over the past two games was that he averaged over four walks per outing. That didn't translate to runs, but again we are searching for any potential advantage here. After three innings, Brown hadn't walked a single Twin and he had struck out six without allowing a hit. 

Ryan Cruises Until He Doesn't
Ryan matched Brown pitch for pitch in the first two innings, but the number nine man Brendan Rodgers poked a single to right in the bottom of the third. Carlos Correa almost turned a double play off of the man who usurped him in Houston, Jeremy Pena, but Pena beat out the relay and the two out danger zone once again reared its ugly head. This time the villain was Yainer Diaz, and his victim was an elevated Ryan fastball that landed 339 feet to the right field homer zone for a 2-0 Astros lead.

Brooks Lee Keeps On Streaking
The top of the fifth inning looked like more of the same from Brown, as he sawed Correa's bat in half with a first pitch sinker. The new lumber served Carlos well, however, as he laced the next pitch 105.7 mph up the middle to put the lead-off man on base for the first time today. Before Twins Territory had a chance to get excited, Brooks Lee smashed the left-field version of "just enough" 345 feet and over the scoreboard to tie the game up at two apiece, and to extend his hitting streak to 14 games.

Brown Giveth in the sixth, and Then He Taketh Away
Byron Buxton took a fastball off of his elbow pad and hand to start the top of the sixth inning, and he was able to not only stay in the game but to steal second base. Trevor Larnach followed with a quality at-bat, holding off several off-speed pitches for a walk to put runners at first and second with nobody out. Brown settled down and blew away Willi Castro before he could advance the runners. Matt Wallner came up next with a chance to pick up his teammate and to put the Twins in the lead, but he was unable to deliver on a 3-1 sinker and lined out to center. Correa was the last hope for the rally, and Brown greeted him with a fastball two millimeters from Correa's knuckles. Three pitches later Correa was walking back to the dugout after striking out, and Brown escaped the jam. The final line on Brown was 98 pitches, 12 strike outs, and one mistake. 

Ryan Giveth Nothing
As stellar as Brown was on Saturday afternoon, Ryan matched him in the most important way that matters: the scoreboard. Ryan struck out seven, surrendered just two hits, and provided seven crucial innings for a rotation that entered the game desperate for success.

A Bullpen Will Win This, and a Bullpen Will Lose This
The Astros turned to Bryan Abreu for the top of the eighth inning, and Christian Vazquez couldn't hold off of ball four and struck out to lead off the inning. Harrison Bader came up next after replacing the wounded Buxton in the seventh, and he learned from Vazquez's at-bat and held off on a full count pitch to take the walk. Bader followed Buxton's lead also by swiping second base to put the go-ahead run in scoring position with one out. Larnach fanned, however, to put the pressure on Castro with two outs. Abreu stayed filthy, striking out Castro and the side to end yet another Twins threat. Griffin Jax took the ball in the bottom of the eighth, and he struck out two to keep Houston off the board as well.

This set the stage for Josh Hader vs. Jhoan Duran in the ninth. Hader dominated Wallner, Correa and Lee in order. Duran got behind Jose Altuve to lead off the bottom of the ninth, and Altuve unloaded a rocket to the deepest part of left-center. Bader tracked it down, and blood pressures returned to normal. Except Duran's, apparently, as he lost control and walked Christian Walker on five pitches. Victor Caratini also didn't offer at Duran's off-speed pitches, and suddenly it was a 3-1 count and Duran was in danger of walking the winning run into scoring position. Jhoan never left the zone again, eventually buckling Caratini's knees with a knuckle curve. Jake Meyers took a pitch in the zone the other way just under a diving Kody Clemens to push Walker to third base and to bring up rookie Cam Smith with the game on the line. Advantage, rookie. A chopper up the middle plated Walker and wasted a stellar Ryan outing. 

What’s Next?
The Twins look to salvage a win in Houston after dropping yet another series in June. The Twins send righty Simeon Woods Richardson (2-3, 5.74 ERA) out in hopes of erasing the taste of his last start from the collective mouths of Twins Territory. Opposing him will be young lefty Brandon Walter (0-0, 1.64 ERA) who is making his third start of the year. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm CDT on Father's Day.

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