Can Alex Kirilloff Stay in the Twins' Plans?

Despite being a former first-round pick and top prospect who has reached the MLB level, Alex Kirilloff has had a difficult professional career thus far. Repeated wrist injuries have limited his performance and availability for multiple years. After two slow seasons in 2021 and 2022, he showed his talent by posting a .793 OPS in 2023. Unfortunately, it came in 88 games, as a shoulder injury limited him again. Injury should be the primary concern with Kirilloff, but the Twins may see some red flags even apart from the health risk.

Kirilloff made some gains in 2023, by pumping his walk rate up to 8.8%. It’s a mark he’s never reached in anything close to an entire season, and the hope is that this is a newfound skill, as he’s long been considered a reasonably free swinger.

Despite the signs of refinement in approach he showed, though, Kirilloff has yet to show he can consistently impact the baseball, a skill the Twins value highly. Among 17 Twins players with at least 50 batted-ball events in 2023, Kirilloff ranked 13th in hard-hit percentage, only ahead of players such as Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. He ranked 12th in barrels per plate appearance, and his maximum exit velocity ranked 15th. Here's a scatterplot showing all the Twins hitters' 90th-percentile exit velocities for 2023, and their slugging average on contact. Only four are to the left of the vertical line marking the average mark for 90th-percentile EV: Donovan Solano, Farmer, Vázquez, and Kirilloff. The latter is the one in the box. He's not all that close to the average mark, even, and he doesn't have the lift-and-pull approach the Twins have exalted for the last half-decade, either.

Yet, he has showed (in a limited sample) that he can be an above-average hitter despite these measures, so what’s the problem?

The Twins have shown they’re willing to make any move, if they feel a value discrepancy between themselves and another team. Despite Kirilloff’s pedigree and history of eye-popping numbers in the minor leagues, the data he’s put out doesn’t align with some of the offensive philosophies this organization believes in. Another organization may see his exit velocities as a non-issue and view Alex Kirilloff as the long-term answer at first base. If the Twins are less confident, that’s often when we see them make surprising moves.

The Twins haven’t had a long-term player at first base in some time, but they have no shortage of options for the future. Even after Jorge Polanco was shipped out of town, an infield log jam is coming. Edouard Julien has already spent brief periods at first base, and with Brooks Lee nearing MLB-readiness and Julien’s shakiness defensively, it’s not out of the question that he could be a long-term answer. Though he’s no Matt Wallner when it comes to loud contact, his established on-base ability and the power he’s flashed would fit in just fine at a corner spot. Julien had 16 home runs in 408 plate appearances as a rookie. Kirilloff has just 22 of them in over 700 career trips to the plate.

As for Wallner, the Twins will likely want to keep him in the outfield for as long as possible with his arm, but his physical build and offensive skillset also make him a candidate to move into the infield at some point. That timeline could be sped up should the need arise, and if other outfield options start to break through in the next few years.

Similar to Wallner, though with more immediate question marks, is Trevor Larnach. Though many have given up on a Larnach breakout season, he’s similar to Wallner in size and offensive skillset. If Larnach can figure out non-fastballs, some time at first base may be a way to get his bat in the lineup more often.

Kirilloff also shares another concern with the last few Twins players who were painfully traded away. Both Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco had significant injury concerns. In each case, the Twins found a team willing to gamble on the players' availability in a big way. The Twins had replacements at the ready and could add reinforcements elsewhere. After the disaster of the 2022 season, the Twins could still be afraid of being left holding the bag when it comes to injuries, and Kirilloff's health history is as murky as it gets.

Is Kirilloff at risk of being traded in the immediate future? Probably not, though it’s hard to rule anything out with how this front office has operated late in the offseason. They likely still think highly of the former top prospect, and the ceiling is still high. 

The concern is that Kirilloff meets some of the criteria of former Twins who were traded away, to the dismay of fans. Pair his lack of durability with a style at the plate that doesn’t quite match up with the organizational philosophy for hitters, and if a team comes calling on a left-handed corner bat, Kirilloff could lose the tiebreaker to other players.

Could Kirilloff’s offensive profile and injury risk make him available on the trade market? Should the Twins make an exception to how they value offensive players and believe in his prospect pedigree? Let us know below!

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.