Joe Ryan, Jose Berrios, and the Twins' Next Homegrown Pitching Gamble

The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me.

I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE.

Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary.

Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. 

Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million.

Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher.

That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. 

Now let's talk about an extension.

A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment.

Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return.

If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies.

It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do.

They actually did well with José Berríos.

Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball.

The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment.

But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him.

After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move.

Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return.

SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment.

Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value.

And that's the bigger problem.

If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment.

In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach.

The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value.

You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else.

That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York.

Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play. 

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me.

I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE.

Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary.

Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. 

Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million.

Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher.

That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. 

Now let's talk about an extension.

A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment.

Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return.

If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies.

It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do.

They actually did well with José Berríos.

Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball.

The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment.

But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him.

After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move.

Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return.

SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment.

Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value.

And that's the bigger problem.

If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment.

In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach.

The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value.

You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else.

That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York.

Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play. 

 

This is a thought provoking post. First, I had forgotten about Faucher - man the Twins have let a bunch of good relief pitchers slip between their fingers. That’s a problem. Second, I appreciate the observations about Opportunity Cost. Many times roster decisions are judged solely by what happened which is a limited analysis. Opportunity Cost is useful in that it incorporates the idea of what could have happened in order to fully evaluate the value of a given decision. In other words, what was the value difference between the best decision available and the decision that you made. There can be many layers to this. In the case of Berrios, the trade return was likely not optimal but they also received the value of not paying him the $117 million required to extend him. Ostensibly that money was used to obtain other value. Anyway, I appreciate the discussion. 

28 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is a thought provoking post. First, I had forgotten about Faucher - man the Twins have let a bunch of good relief pitchers slip between their fingers. That’s a problem. Second, I appreciate the observations about Opportunity Cost. Many times roster decisions are judged solely by what happened which is a limited analysis. Opportunity Cost is useful in that it incorporates the idea of what could have happened in order to fully evaluate the value of a given decision. In other words, what was the value difference between the best decision available and the decision that you made. There can be many layers to this. In the case of Berrios, the trade return was likely not optimal but they also received the value of not paying him the $117 million required to extend him. Ostensibly that money was used to obtain other value. Anyway, I appreciate the discussion. 

Too many TwinsDaily posters analyze players based purely on personal feelings.

 

The truth is... every single player represents a money, budget, and value discussion.

 

It's impossible to have a realistic baseball debate without looking at the financial footprint a guy leaves on the payroll.

 

Even my constant focus on platooning comes back to this: while it helps development, the core driver is budget efficiency and maximizing value.

 

Budget dictates everything.

40 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I think some of this footprint needs to include the rotation impact as a whole.

its not just Joe Ryan (though he’s a huge trade chip and value driver).

there are 4 starters currently on the 40 man roster that will not be on their current contract in 2028.

Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Kremer are in their last years of contract going into 2027.

they shouldn’t plan on backfilling all 4 next offseason, even if the current depth chart is 9 deep, it needs to remain 9-10 deep all the time.

this offseason one to two of the 4 should be turned into prospects for 2028 and forward, and one to two should be extended or external free agents added so the FO only has plan on signing one free agent in the 2027-2028 offseason and have a prospect or two graduate. They can’t plan on 9 guys all taking a step forward at the same time.
 

Right now it does not appear there is a robust succession plan.

I’ve been calling it the wall. They need to mitigate the upcoming crash into that wall. If the plan is for the expiring contracts to lead the way in 2027. They certainly could do it. However… after the season concludes. It’s a full speed crash into that wall and it won’t be pretty. 

thats why I advocate signing at least one upper level starter this off season to a multi year deal despite the current depth and trading off two (Ober and Kremer) to make sure youth is served in the 5th rotation spot. 
 

I think it’s a critical move. 

Pedanticism is really not effective at convincing anyone of anything. 

It's also not important for this decision what they didn't do last year. It's over. 

What should they do now? If you think they are legit, keep Ryan. 

If you can't get at least a top sevent five prospect and another good one? Keep him. 

I'd trade him. But I understand why others wouldn't, and I'm fairly sure Tommy boy won't let them either.