Twins bullpen for 2027

[MeleMouth]

Based on the current roster, only five relievers who were on the year-end roster should be considered likely to be in the Twins bullpen in 2027: Hoffman, Morris, Funderburk, Nance, and Adams, and even three of those come with question marks.

Eight relievers are needed, so the Twins need to fill three spots. Where could candidates come from?

1. Other relievers on the 40-man: Gomez, Orze, Anderson, Acton, and Raya.

2. Relievers who have been on the IL: Sands and Festa.

3. Inexperienced starters who convert to relief: Rojas and Matthews.

4. Free agents: adding salary for free agent relievers has typically been a high risk, low reward game. In a small sample of World Series winners since Covid, very few teams signed a free agent from another team who made a difference. Hector Neris, a middle reliever for the 2021 Astros, was probably the most successful. However, many interesting names are available this winter, including Bednar, Morejon, Phillips, Loaisiga, Matsui, Vesia, old friend Okert, and new friend Minter.  

5. Veteran starters who convert to relief: Ober and Lopez.

If it were me, I would move Ober and Lopez to the bullpen and, unless either Festa or Sands look great, add whomever between Gomez and Raya looks better in spring training.

Reasoning:

1. Start with who is being excluded. Anderson, Acton, Raya, Sands, Festa, Rojas and Matthews have options, assuming they don't find other spots on the active roster. Of the pitchers without options, the loss of Orze would be relatively easy to take. Losing Gomez would cause more consternation, based on his successful surface results in 2026, but putting him on the 2027 roster would cause even more consternation if he pitches like he did in the second half of 2026: 5.79 ERA, 5.82 xERA, 7.33 BB/9. 

2. Then deal with complicated roster issues, which include projecting pitchers returning from injury and a combination of too many starters for the active roster and too few in the organization. The Twins have a weird posture regarding starters, in that they seem to have more than needed to start the year but may not have enough in the system to make it through a season. At the same time, only one starter, Bradley, appears to be a lock. Assuming Ryan and Kremer are retained, they make two more. In my mind, Prielipp showed more than enough in 2026 to consider him a starter in 2027, leaving one opening. Leading candidates are Lopez, Ober, Abel, Matthews, and Rojas. Assuming health, Abel would be my top choice. Like Lopez, he is returning from injury, but it is a less severe injury, and he may have the highest ceiling among the five.

3. Decide what to do with Lopez, Ober, Matthews, and Rojas. Ober and Rojas are relatively easy. Rojas goes to AAA to continue as a starter. Ober has the lowest ceiling and looked like he was getting by with wiles instead of talent. Among the nine candidates to be a starter, he could be #9 in talent. However, he provides a unique pitching style that could give a unique look coming out of the bullpen and retaining him would allow the Twins to return him to starting if necessary. Matthews should join Rojas in St. Paul's rotation. Some people have talked about converting him to the bullpen, analogizing Matthews to Varland. This is a reasonable position when comparing pitchers, but is less relevant when comparing teams - adding a power reliever to the 2023 team helped make that team competitive for the ALCS; the 2027 team will be competing to squeak into the wild card. If things look more optimistic in July or August, of course, Matthews could be a candidate to switch at that time. For now, he has shown enough as a starter to still think that he could succeed. And that leaves Lopez. Coming off his second TJ, it is highly doubtful that he can immediately return to being a top starter for a full season. However, he's on the team. My recommendation is that he follow the example of John Smoltz and take over closer duties.

4. With this plan, the Twins don't need to take the risk of signing an expensive free agent reliever to a multi-year contract. Those deals rarely work for any team, and expensive free agent contracts for any position rarely work for the Twins. As we have seen, veteran relievers are often available during the season for an extra boost. However, the bullpen as constructed here includes only one lefty, Funderburk, who doesn't have the most reliable track record. If the Twins want to sign another lefty, that could be a good decision. If the Twins bring in another lefty reliever, it is likely that Adams would be sent to St. Paul, because Nance does not have an option.

Thus, your 2027 Opening Day bullpen: Lopez, Hoffman, Morris, Ober, Funderburk, Nance, Adams and [Gomez or Raya].

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can't get there with moving Lopez. He should be starting bullpens in a couple of weeks time. If he needs more ramp up time whenever the season/spring training actually starts, then so be it. But I can't imagine a world where he is moved to the pen.

I'm curious why you list Morris over Gomez? Yes Gomez was pitching on fumes and a shell of himself the last 2 months or so, for sure September. But how is that any different than what Morris was doing? I'd say both have to earn it, but both have a decent shot. Gomez has a good fastball, and hopefully the new pitching coach can help him with his command a bit. We'll see about Morris, he was so good the first few months in the pen, then it felt like he either ONLY threw hard stuff or he had a tell of some kind.

Admittedly I expect Ober to be moved. Some team will want him as a back end starter. I don't see him back, even if he is a good dude.

I have a hard time moving Zebby to the pen so quickly too. He showed really good starter results in like 60% of his starts. I think there is something to work with there, adding to Prielipp and Bradley and Ryan. All guys I take over Ober for sure, if we are also keeping Kremer. But then IF Lopez and Abel can show they are healthy, that's when I very much listen on Ryan at some point too.

Fun to dream on. If it were me, when free agency opens, I'd bring in a multi year free agent option and another who is maybe a 2 year deal with the 2nd being an option year. They need numbers, and I'd imagine most bullpens in baseball, even good ones, go through 18-25 pitchers per year anyway.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm curious why you list Morris over Gomez? Yes Gomez was pitching on fumes and a shell of himself the last 2 months or so, for sure September. But how is that any different than what Morris was doing? I'd say both have to earn it, but both have a decent shot. Gomez has a good fastball, and hopefully the new pitching coach can help him with his command a bit. We'll see about Morris, he was so good the first few months in the pen, then it felt like he either ONLY threw hard stuff or he had a tell of some kind.

Many indicators besides surface stats predict a better future for Morris than for Gomez:

Second half: Morris - 3.97 xERA and 4.23 BB/9; Gomez - 5.82 xERA and 7.33 BB/9*. *On a full year basis, would be worst by more than 1 BB/9 among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. His full year walk rate of 5.24/9 is 20th worst.

Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+: Morris - 107, 102, 106; Gomez - 113, 81**, 93. **2nd lowest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings.

GB%: Morris - 45.0%; Gomez - 26.2%***. ***7th lowest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. 

FB%: Morris - 35.9%; Gomez - 48.7%. Neither are great nor terrible, but lower is better.

LD%: Morris - 19.1%; Gomez - 25.1%****. ****Tied for 8th highest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. 

Full year: Morris - 3.33 xERA, 3.29 FIP, 4.03 xFIP; Gomez - 5.48 xERA; 4.40 FIP; 5.09 xFIP.

Other than for counting saves, Gomez pitched well only for a little more than one month. He also has some good qualities, such as his Stuff+ being almost top 10%, so, like you said, he should get a shot in spring training with the new pitching coach to see if he can improve on some of his weaknesses. If he doesn't, however, he should be let go. In particular, if he's a middle innings reliever instead of the closer, his high walk rate will be devastating. Morris, on the other hand, didn't have an incredible year, but he was a rookie who was called up unexpectedly. He's also two years younger, which gives better odds for further improvement. As a rookie without the bad extremes of Gomez, and as a pitcher with options, Morris should get a longer leash.

[Cory Engelhardt]

55 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Many indicators besides surface stats predict a better future for Morris than for Gomez:

Second half: Morris - 3.97 xERA and 4.23 BB/9; Gomez - 5.82 xERA and 7.33 BB/9*. *On a full year basis, would be worst by more than 1 BB/9 among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. His full year walk rate of 5.24/9 is 20th worst.

Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+: Morris - 107, 102, 106; Gomez - 113, 81**, 93. **2nd lowest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings.

GB%: Morris - 45.0%; Gomez - 26.2%***. ***7th lowest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. 

FB%: Morris - 35.9%; Gomez - 48.7%. Neither are great nor terrible, but lower is better.

LD%: Morris - 19.1%; Gomez - 25.1%****. ****Tied for 8th highest (bad) among 389 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings. 

Full year: Morris - 3.33 xERA, 3.29 FIP, 4.03 xFIP; Gomez - 5.48 xERA; 4.40 FIP; 5.09 xFIP.

Other than for counting saves, Gomez pitched well only for a little more than one month. He also has some good qualities, such as his Stuff+ being almost top 10%, so, like you said, he should get a shot in spring training with the new pitching coach to see if he can improve on some of his weaknesses. If he doesn't, however, he should be let go. In particular, if he's a middle innings reliever instead of the closer, his high walk rate will be devastating. Morris, on the other hand, didn't have an incredible year, but he was a rookie who was called up unexpectedly. He's also two years younger, which gives better odds for further improvement. As a rookie without the bad extremes of Gomez, and as a pitcher with options, Morris should get a longer leash.

I wasn't advocating for ditching Morris, Both have options, which is good. Thank you for laying out your reasons. I appreciate it.

[MeleMouth]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I wasn't advocating for ditching Morris, Both have options, which is good. Thank you for laying out your reasons. I appreciate it.

Yes, you were just asking for a comparison.

Gomez does not have an option left, however.