Draft Status and Prospect View Point

[Trov]

I was thinking about how people had been big on Carson McCusker, even coming into the season, but now some are really big on him due to his hot start in AAA. He was an undrafted guy, after a pretty average college career and summer leagues. His first 2 years in independent ball was okay, again nothing crazy.  Then at age 25 he is on fire independent league, leading to the signing of the Twins.  He did fine moving up the leagues and was decent, but nothing crazy in A and AA.  Then age 26 he has a decent time at AA and moves up to AAA.  Now age 27 season he is crushing AAA causing many to call for him coming up expecting him to hit like that at MLB.  He is now on TD 19th prospect. 

This is not a forum on McCusker and if he deserves to be on the list, but he is rising up the prospect list, because at age 27 he is starting to really show some talent.  Now I want to look at someone else, I will not name him, as I am not saying he should be on a prospect list or anything, but want to compare his history and how people view him versus someone like McCusker.

This guy crushed in college with over 1.100 OPS in his college time. McCusker was under .900 OPS in college. The second guy had more HR in 2 years in college than McCusker did in 4. The second guy was drafted high in draft, unlike McCusker being undrafted.  The second guy was put on prospect list right away, he is now off it after spending several years in minors putting up OPS around .750 ish.  He is putting up similar numbers to McCusker did in AA at age 26 season, .852 OPS.  McCusker OPS was .848.  

I believe that even if the second guy finishes the year similar to McCusker and gets to AAA and starts off as hot as McCusker anyone will want to move him back into prospect lists, and will not be pushing to a call up, but still call the second guy a bust. The point I am trying to make is how if a guy is expected to be good, but struggles early, we write them off, even if they turn it around, but if they start off not good and becomes good later on we have hope they will be a diamond in the rough.  

Two players at similar age putting up similar numbers, I could do deeper in them just used OPS as a general, but they are all pretty close, but two different views in how fans think of them as possible prospects.  Yes, player two would need to build off what is going on similar to McCusker, but if he does I still doubt fans will be high on him.  

The reverse though is true.  If a guy like McCusker would have been drafted, maybe would have in the old 50 rounds, but if he did not do well after a year or two he would have been cut having to go independent ball route and until he tears it up like he did he would get no second chance.  Where guy number two because of his draft status and his college number he is given several years of trying to figure it out.