Durán's Future

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I saw today that David Bednar of the Pirates had been optioned after a tough start to his season. Bednar had put together three very good seasons with the Pirates and had 39 saves in 2023 before slumping badly last year. He lost two of the Buccos first three games (both walkoffs) and was optioned. Bednar was also pretty bad in Spring Training this year and even the Twins roughed him up.

This is a roundabout prelude to discuss Twins' closer Jhoan Durán. It's very early, but results and metrics are pointing to a guy who isn't elite and might actually be a weak spot in the bullpen as a closer. In 2023, Durán was the hardest thrower in MLB with a majority of the highest velo fastballs recorded that year coming from his right arm. Now, he's averaging a noticeable 4-5 mph slower fastball without elite movement. He still has a very good curve ball and split finger pitch with the splittie among the hardest "off speed" pitches in baseball. Results have been okay, but not great. Durán's ERA and WHIP have increased each of his three years with the Twins and his strikeout percentage has fallen. It would appear that his fastball isn't elite unless he has elite velocity and 100 mph fastballs have become more and more common.

Which brings me to Durán's future. If he still has high value, would the Twins consider moving him? He's still pretty young (27) and under team control for two additional seasons beyond this year. Also, if he struggles ala Bednar, would the Twins consider sending him to the minors? I think there is a sneaky good percentage chance that this will occur because Durán had exactly three years of service prior to the start of the season. If he were to spend two week on option, the Twins or a team that would acquire him would get another full year of service from him. 

The Twins current front office has been hesitant to pay large dollars for their bullpen. Durán is now in arbitration years and will get more and more money even if his results don't improve. They also have a guy Griffin Jax, who by most measures has passed Durán by as the most effective bullpen arm. I don't think Durán will be a Twin by 2026 unless he regains elite status as a pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he is traded, or if he struggles, that he is sent to the minors. 

 

[Vanimal46]

If we purposely manipulate his service time I’m sure he’ll want to leave. His results will need to be really bad to justify a demotion. 

What do you expect for a trade return of Duran? 

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4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If we purposely manipulate his service time I’m sure he’ll want to leave. His results will need to be really bad to justify a demotion. 

What do you expect for a trade return of Duran? 

Like they did for Buxton? Now BB is talking about playing his entire career with the Twins. “Purposely manipulate” means one thing to a player and agent and another to the team. I’ll put it this way—if Durán is bad enough to be removed from the closer role, the team would certainly consider demotion as a reset and the service time component would absolutely figure in.