The Value of Losing

[drjim]

I'm against the full on blow it up rebuild being advocated by a few people here.

 

First, I like it when the Twins win.

 

Second, this team is further along than we may have thought gokng into the season. Competing as soon as next year might be realistic.

 

Third, some of the guys mentioned in these trades could very much contribute to the team next year. In addition, the return for these guys will be minimal. What is the point of trading Doumit? He is signed for a reasonable contract next year, fits a need, isn't blocking a significant prospect, and wont result in much return. He has value to the Twins.

 

Fourth, I think there is value in a winning culture (or at least a competent culture). The Twins are breaking in several young players this year that will hopefully form a successful core going forward, and I believe that is done easier on a somewhat successful team as opposed to starting from scratch.

 

I am not opposed to a few smart trades - maybe Willingham and Burton, perhaps some guys that won't be on the roster next year. In short, only players with clear replacements for this year.

[Oxtung]

I'm against the full on blow it up rebuild being advocated by a few people here.

 

First, I like it when the Twins win.

 

Second, this team is further along than we may have thought gokng into the season. Competing as soon as next year might be realistic.

 

Third, some of the guys mentioned in these trades could very much contribute to the team next year. In addition, the return for these guys will be minimal. What is the point of trading Doumit? He is signed for a reasonable contract next year, fits a need, isn't blocking a significant prospect, and wont result in much return. He has value to the Twins.

 

Fourth, I think there is value in a winning culture (or at least a competent culture). The Twins are breaking in several young players this year that will hopefully form a successful core going forward, and I believe that is done easier on a somewhat successful team as opposed to starting from scratch.

 

I am not opposed to a few smart trades - maybe Willingham and Burton, perhaps some guys that won't be on the roster next year. In short, only players with clear replacements for this year.

 

I don't see how. Over the next season we're going to start breaking in a whole bunch of rookies. Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, Santana, Tonkin, Achter should all get looks next year with other possibilities being Baxendale, Danny Ortiz, Cole Johnson, Angel Morales, James Beresford, Logan Darnell, Andrew Albers, Duffey, Wimmers, Vargas, Mejia, Eades, Zach and Tyler Jones. That doesn't even include Hicks, Arcia and Gibson from this year. That is just WAAAAAY to many rookies getting playing time to hope we'll be competitive. What we see this year is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Next year begins the real transfer of power.

[cmb0252]

I guess some people took what I wrote wrong. I wasn't suggesting the Twins should tank. I'm not saying the Twins should purposefully try to throw games. All I was trying to do is show that with losing, rebuilding, there is value in having a few extra L. While tanking and rebuilding have some similarities, they are not the same thing.

[cmb0252]

I kind of felt the same way as CMB but then Shipley fell to #15 in this last draft, Appel fell to 8 in 2012 and Russell fell to 11. In 2011, Fernandez went 11, Bradley went 7 (seriously loaded draft). Sale went #13 in 2010 and so on. The draft is so unpredictable that the Twins should get a good player regardless if their scouts are doing their job. The elite talent will go in the first few spots but there usually isn't more than 3-4 elite players in a draft and we can't lose enough to catch up with a top 4 spot.

 

My guess is the Twins won't finish with the 11th worst record. My guess is they'll finish around 7 or 8 and I do think Ryan will make several deadline trades. (I think the Twins are better than the White Sox, Seattle, Houston, Miami, Mets and Cubs for sure. After that, it's closer).

 

(Oh, and I wanted Stewart over Gray).

 

I completely agree. You don't have to get a player from the "expert" proclaimed top tier of talent to get a great player. Your examples definitely prove that. The one thing I will say is that the higher the pick the greater chance of big league success. BA actually did a study right before this last draft showing that the higher the pick the better chance of big league success. Which shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

[Vervehound]

This is hardly a fact. I've seen nothing that shows any indication that they are buyers and it is a fact several players are being openly shopped. The rebuilding process is a process and will take time. We're in much better shape than we were a year ago, and I've seen no indication this momentum is anywhere near slowing. Also, I know for a fact, the concept of selling high is not foreign to the Twins. I think Brock said it best recently. Posters fall into the trap where they feel they know more than GM's etc. and have the ability to hose said GM's in trades. It's another fact, that no poster has ever done this.

 

there is empirical evidence that suggests we haven't realized when we've sucked before, see the 2011 season as exhibit a, nor have we proactively shopped guys even when we're out of it (see willingham and others last year). couple that with the comments interspersed on the main board (will not shop correia, etc.) and you seem to have the misguided notion that we think we may be better than we are.

 

i think we can agree to let their (in)actions speak for themselves and i'd rather have zack wheeler than travis harrison (pseduo kidding).

[gunnarthor]

there is empirical evidence that suggests we haven't realized when we've sucked before, see the 2011 season as exhibit a, nor have we proactively shopped guys even when we're out of it (see willingham and others last year). couple that with the comments interspersed on the main board (will not shop correia, etc.) and you seem to have the misguided notion that we think we may be better than we are.

 

i think we can agree to let their (in)actions speak for themselves and i'd rather have zack wheeler than travis harrison (pseduo kidding).

 

I think you're comparing apples to oranges. We had a different GM in 2011. Ryan has been known to make trades in seasons like this - he made a bunch of them in the 90s and he also traded Castillo in 2007 when the Twins had a winning record and were 7 games back. He's a realist. He's not afraid to make trades we he has the opportunity and he hasn't been bullied into making bad ones. The Twins didn't have to make any moves at the deadline last year. The best rumor out there for Willingham was a #4 type starter - Sean Gilmartin was floated around a bit. So, he didn't see a deal he liked so he kept Span and Willingham and Burton and he might make another move this deadline or this offseason.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I really don't think tanking exists in the majors. Obviously, you could argue that selling at the deadline is, but really, teams want to win whatever they can get. Every player will try their best and do what it takes to win. I think the whole "tanking" is a fan perception and that's okay. Do you really want your team to lose for it to pay off larger dividends later? Or do you want to win despite the nearly non-existent chances of competing for a pennant now? Personally, I like tWINs and in baseball the incentives for "tanking" aren't substantial. Even at the end of an unsuccessful season (when they're eliminated), I want to win as much as they possibly can.