What Went Right in 2023 and Wrong in 2024

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The Twins won the AL Central and their first postseason series in 2023. They won 87 games. In 2024, the club won 82 games, only five less, but they missed the playoffs and faded horribly in the stretch. So maybe the decline wasn't as great as it seems.

That said, some things went very right for the Twins in 2023 and didn't go nearly as well this season. Is there something to be learned from the successes of 2023 and the disappointments of 2024? Or, is this just a demonstration of the randomness of baseball?

In 2023, the Twins brought in veterans Michael A. Taylor, Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano to provide depth and right handed hitting. All three performed admirably--Taylor set a career high for home runs and became the Twins' regular center fielder with elite defense.  Solano logged the most innings on the team at first base and was a reliable hitter, Farmer crushed left handed pitching and despite missing time from injury, played in 120 games and logged 1.7 WAR. New guys were brought in in 2024, most notably Manuel Margot, who set an all-time record for pinch-hitting futility, logged a negative WAR and was a disappointment as a defender.

Willi Castro made the team out of Spring Training in 2023 and was used frequently throughout the season. Castro set a career high in stolen bases and helped the team at the plate, in the field and on the bases. In 409 plate appearances, Willi logged a 2.7 WAR. Used almost every day in 2024, Castro had a strong first half, but faded in the stretch and had only 1.6 WAR in 635 plate appearances.

Ryan Jeffers broke out in 2023. Sharing time equally with Christian Vázquez, Jeffers picked up 3.3 WAR in 335 plate appearances. Despite a hot start in 2024, Jeffers only reached 2.1 WAR in 465 plate appearances. Jeffers was used often early in the season as the DH increasing his playing time. 

In 2023, rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner were brought up during the season (Lewis returning from injury). All three performed well, with Julien and Lewis being two of the best three hitters in postseason. All three players had more the 2 WAR is less than a full season.  In 2024, rookies Brooks Lee and Austin Martin made their debuts and neither player provided a positive WAR.

In 2023, the Twins got outstanding production from Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax. This year, several retread relievers were brought in and all the were acquired in the offseason bombed out.

If someone is looking into why the Twins reached the playoffs and one a series, the successes of 2023 were not duplicated in the succeeding year. It seems good fortune has a shelf life and we can't continue to have nice things.                                                          

 

[bean5302]

Looking at the roster, you can break it down by expected opening day at player acquision/position.

C - Jeffers*
1B - Santana*
2B - Julien
3B - Lewis
SS - Correa
LF - Wallner
CF - Buxton*
RF - Kepler
DH - Kirilloff
UI/UO - Castro*
UI - Farmer
UO - Margot
BC - Vazquez*

SP1 - Lopez
SP2 - Ryan
SP3 - Ober*
SP4 - Paddack
SP5 - Desclafani 

BP1 - Duran*
BP2 - Stewart
BP3 - Jax*
BP4 - Thielbar
BP5 - Topa
BP6 - Okert
BP7 - Alcala*
BP8 - Jackson

*Player performed to expectations. The list is frighteningly short. Whether or not major time on the IL or just plain performance woes, the Twins got much less than expected to absolutely nothing from the majority of their expected opening day roster. The guys who really made a difference and were much more valuable than expected were all guys who didn't and/or weren't expected to make the opening day roster.
Trevor Larnach, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands, Jose Miranda. Things would have been much worse without those mostly surprise performances.