How the Four-Seam Fastball Has Changed, and How the Twins Are Changing With It - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

Yes, pitchers throw harder than they used to. But there's so much more about their fastballs that has changed, over the last 20 years.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Last week, in watching an old Twins game against the Red Sox, I found myself thinking a lot about all the information we didn't get about games played as recently as 2007, but which we can obtain with a few well-directed clicks for any game of the last 17 seasons. It's obvious, to anyone who grew up with the game before computers began meticulously capturing and documenting the action in numbers, that pitching has changed a lot in the time since then. As I watched, though, I was increasingly struck by the feeling that some of the non-obvious changes to the way pitchers throw fastballs were the most important ones.

For those who didn't read the above-linked article, the game I watched and reflected on was a clash on the day of the 2005 trade deadline, and Brad Radke took the ball for the Twins that day. If you're reading this, you probably have at least a generational memory of Radke; he was a fixture for the team for over a decade. He was one of the great FIPsters of the era just before FIP gained wide acceptance as an indicator of real talent. He struck out a good number of batters, for a pitcher without overwhelming stuff, and he issued very, very few walks. His ERAs rarely fully reflected his brilliance in those regards, though, because he gave up a lot of home runs. It was as much part of his style as were the good strikeout and walk numbers, but it felt unfair. He was doing everything right, except the most important thing, and so he was much more often good than great.

Radke was, perhaps, a little ahead of his time. He used the high fastball to set up the rest of his arsenal, which tended to bend and tumble toward the bottom of the zone. He accepted the homers he allowed as part of doing business, because he didn't have five extra miles per hour laying around or anything, and he couldn't enjoy as much success with his soft stuff except by throwing the high heater.

In the two decades since Radke slipped into his senescence, the landscape of pitching has changed in some radical ways. There are plenty of modern pitchers who do some version of the same calculus Radke did and accept the same tradeoffs, but the way those tradeoffs actually take shape has changed quite a bit. Let's talk about how.

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[Aerodeliria]

Radke was never wild except when he pitched against the Yankees in the playoffs, which bummed me out, but that also brings up an interesting side point. Radke could throw strikes and was effective without having a blazing fastball. Maybe all of these maximization strategies about arm angle, velocity and spin rates come at a high price. Virtually every team has dealt with significant injuries up and down the lineup. Because I am an old fart, I remember quite well baseball all the way back to the 1970s. In those days, a significant injury was headline news. I still remember when Frank Tanana got injured, for example. This in an era where pitchers were asked to pitch a complete game if they were in the zone irrespective of pitch count. Nowadays, it almost a given that one of your starters will be out for a significant part of the season or have his goose cooked for this season and half of the next--one starter if you're lucky. Two or three if you're not so lucky. The same goes for relievers as well.

 

The question becomes what can be done to compete and yet keep players healthy? I wonder if there is a solution. Modern medical and sports training should be keeping players healthier and for longer, but the trend seems to be going in the opposite direction...