Uh-oh. Simeon Woods Richardson is Throwing Gas Again.

[2wins87]

22 hours ago, Verified Member said:

Can someone explain the (0,0) axis reference point? I cannot believe a fastball rises 18"± from the elevation point from which it was thrown. Thanks.

 

22 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

If I am understanding this graph correctly, the vertical axis is actually "Induced Vertical Break" - or how much a pitches location differs vertically from where you'd expect a ball thrown with no magnus effect to end up. For fastballs, this is a measurement of how much the pitch "rises". So 0,0 would be a ball thrown with no magnus effect.

That being said, I don't understand why a changeup would have nearly the same rise as a fastball, and how a gyro slider would only just barely end up below a ball thrown with no magnus effect. 

 

Yes it would have to be induced vertical break.  I think that around 18 inches of IVB is roughly the cutoff between good and average.  Given the time to the plate a 90 MPH fastball with 18 inches of "rising" movement still drops by somewhere around 15 inches under gravity+magnus force.

I think most changeups and sliders do still have some rising movement, but drop more due the extra time to the plate.  The additional drop under gravity for an 80 MPH pitch vs a 90 MPH pitch is about 10 inches.  SWR's changeup should therefore be dropping about 15 more inches than his fastball.  This looks roughly consistent with the vertical movement on his pitches last year from baseball savant.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

21 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Yes it would have to be induced vertical break.  I think that around 18 inches of IVB is roughly the cutoff between good and average.  Given the time to the plate a 90 MPH fastball with 18 inches of "rising" movement still drops by somewhere around 15 inches under gravity+magnus force.

I think most changeups and sliders do still have some rising movement, but drop more due the extra time to the plate.  The additional drop under gravity for an 80 MPH pitch vs a 90 MPH pitch is about 10 inches.  SWR's changeup should therefore be dropping about 15 more inches than his fastball.  This looks roughly consistent with the vertical movement on his pitches last year from baseball savant.

I chatted with the guy who's tweet I posted earlier in the thread, and yes changeups do actually have rise - they just have less rise than a fastball and our eyes have been trained to see that as "drop".

Thanks for the clarification on actual downward movement with gravity vs. IVB.

Additionally, SWR has a pretty outlier changeup in terms of IVB.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

50 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

This is interesting if, as I would assume, his version of stuff+ includes release point etc. in a similar way to Eno Sarris's.  SWR has always scored high in stuff+ models despite throwing 90 MPH, and I think a big part of that was his unique release point.  Something didn't quite translate from stuff+ to results in his case though.

His release point will be less unique now, but if it is more than offset by velocity and movement then the changes worked.  Will be one to watch this year.

If you're interested, here's his explainer https://medium.com/@thomasjamesnestico/modelling-tjstuff-d9a451765484

[Major League Ready]

It would be an equally big deal if the arm slot gave him better command.