Figuring out Rocco’s bullpen moves

[GusGus11]

 I just want some input on what they think could be the reasoning for some Rocco today.

Let me start with something I understand completely why Rocco made the move.

Funderburk for Pagan vs Calhoun. Obviously Rocco wanted left on left. Now personally I disagree with that and think its classic Rocco going short sighted simple minded "see lefty pitch lefty". And funderburks splits along with Calhouns splits side with me. Pagan being our top arm lately also sides with me. But regardless I get where Roccos line of thinking was and its open for differing opinions on what the correct move was. No move was perfect. Same with pulling gray or letting him pitch. I know what Id do. But again, arguments both sides.

What baffles me is the moves that are made where I cant even think of why they were done to even start foruming a two sided debate. Like how can I even debate if it was a good move or a bad move if it literally makes no sense. So I will post the Luplow moves and I am open to any and all suggestions about what his thought process may have been. Good or bad thought I just want thoughts. No wrong answers here.

1. Pinch hitting Luplow for Gallo in the 5th with 1st and 2nd 1 out. This isnt a no out spot where you can move the runners and get out. You have to get on base. Gallo walks a lot. Might close his eyes and hit a homer. Luplow is terrible vs righties for his career(even when he was OK for teams) and especially now. So batting him right on right makes no sense. And its more baffling why even start Gallo then.

- Currently my two ideas I have are 1. Gallo stinks(Luplow stinking cancels that out though) and 2.Gallo hurt himself.

Thats all I got. Open to anyone elses ideas of what could have been a factor.

2. Luplow hitting against another righty in the bottom of the 7th and 1 out, only to be replaced by Michael A Taylor in the top of 8 for Defense. So Taylor in his rest day was healthy enough to immediately play D. But our better hitter couldnt bat immediately before?

-Currently I have literally zero explanation for this one. So I am truly open to any potential ideas.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The bullpen usage made no sense to me. Funderburk and Jax both have reverse splits, yet both of them only faced batters of same handedness (until the Calhoun homer). Jax should have pitched to Kwan, which would have saved Thielbar. I really disliked the move to bring in Funderburk in that spot (Pagan clearly had his ish together), but Thielbar would have made sense had he been available. I know Calhoun has reverse splits, but Pagan is pretty bad against lefties.

[GusGus11]

1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The bullpen usage made no sense to me. Funderburk and Jax both have reverse splits, yet both of them only faced batters of same handedness (until the Calhoun homer). Jax should have pitched to Kwan, which would have saved Thielbar. I really disliked the move to bring in Funderburk in that spot (Pagan clearly had his ish together), but Thielbar would have made sense had he been available. I know Calhoun has reverse splits, but Pagan is pretty bad against lefties.

Yeah its frustrating because as I said, it appears that Rocco(and it could come from the top) simply operates on surface level left vs left. Ive said it in regards to our hitters too. Like he basically assumes at all times that lefties cant hit lefties. Even though many times pitchers are better vs the other handed batter and vice versa from the hitter.

Its funny cause the joke over the years is that "Rocco just follows a spreadsheet" or "twins are all analytics" but in reality many of our moves seem to actually ignore any facts on a spreadsheet.

But as I said in the OP that one I can at least explain where his decision came from. Its same reason Im not even mad at pulling Gray, personaly I think its dumb to not let Sonny face the bottom til someone reaches but whatever. We have 30ish starts worth of data that say "3rd time through and 80+ pitches Sonny is done". So cant argue it to much because we know its happening.

The parts that still baffle me 5 hours later is the Luplow usage today. I still cannot for the life of me figure out what any of that was about.

Curious if anyone saw/read his post games if he touched on it?

[SwainZag]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The bullpen usage made no sense to me. Funderburk and Jax both have reverse splits, yet both of them only faced batters of same handedness (until the Calhoun homer). Jax should have pitched to Kwan, which would have saved Thielbar. I really disliked the move to bring in Funderburk in that spot (Pagan clearly had his ish together), but Thielbar would have made sense had he been available. I know Calhoun has reverse splits, but Pagan is pretty bad against lefties.

Thielbar is absolutely filthy against lefties.  You are up 2-0 with a runner on 3rd with 2 outs in the 8th, he is who you go to.  Thielbar gets the out and you get your ace Duran to face the heart of the Guardians order in the 9th.  Saving Thielbar means you are anticipating losing the lead and using him in extras.  You just can't do that when you have the matchup you want.  

Calhoun has reverse splits for this season, which is a tiny SSS at 26 PA.  For his career, he has .748 OPS vs RHP and a .701 vs LHP.  IMO, I think they should have walked him to load the bases after he fell behind 3-0 and Ramirez had already swiped 2nd base.

[Irishman]

I will never understand Rocco’s strategy.   IMO Rocco and FO need to be replaced.   

[GusGus11]

13 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Thielbar is absolutely filthy against lefties.  You are up 2-0 with a runner on 3rd with 2 outs in the 8th, he is who you go to.  Thielbar gets the out and you get your ace Duran to face the heart of the Guardians order in the 9th.  Saving Thielbar means you are anticipating losing the lead and using him in extras.  You just can't do that when you have the matchup you want.  

Calhoun has reverse splits for this season, which is a tiny SSS at 26 PA.  For his career, he has .748 OPS vs RHP and a .701 vs LHP.  IMO, I think they should have walked him to load the bases after he fell behind 3-0 and Ramirez had already swiped 2nd base.

We 100% used Thielbar at the right time, I dont really think someone can aruge that with much concrete support. Only debate was if Gray starts the inning or not and we all know our philosphy was never going to allow that so why bother complaining. 8th inning Jax to Thielbar like you said was correct.

You're right on Calhoun having small sample size this year. But he also hit lefties better last year. And the issue with looking at career averages is its factoring in numbers from who a guy was long ago. Especially with the game changing so much hitters are adapting their approaches. Even Mike Trout is completely different then 2012 Mike Trout.

So while I completely get the notion that 26 PA is a small sample size. You also cannot point to career when making decisions today as some better gauge. I think with this year and last, plus Funderburk not having a dominant lefty split should have shown it was a shaky call.

You are also 100% though that throwing a 3-0 cookie there was mental. The already mentioned splits of Fundy say cut your losses and left him face the righty if need be. Make Calhoun chase.