Does Spending Mean Wins?

[Trov]

Every year we talk about how Twins can, and maybe should, spend more on the roster.  Fans go back and forth on it.  The argument for spending is more you spend the more you win.  Arguments against it is that you get tied to players and may spend wrong.  There are years where the highest payrolls win the World Series, and years where low payroll win.  Looking at this year, the highest payroll, by far is the New York Mets, at 344 mil.  They have sold off some of their high priced guys after being below .500 and well out of playoff contention.  Next is New York Yankees, who pretty much stood pat at deadline and are in last place in their division, still just above .500 but odds of making playoffs not good.  Their payroll comes in at 279 mil.  Next is a team compared to Twins by some, the San Deigo Padres, at 252 Mil.  They are also below .500 and not likely to make playoffs.  They also have sold much of their farm system to load up on talent in recent years. 

After those top three the playoff bound teams start coming in. the next four in order are Rangers 247 mil, Phillies 245 mil(wild card team most likely) Dodgers 238, and Houston 236(most likely a wild card team) The rangers spent big last year too, but failed to make playoffs.  The other three made deep playoff runs, but one thing if you look deep into the roster development for all four teams, their teams were not just built from FA, but from many internal minor league players that came up, and each had traded for or signed big name FA as well.  Houston big name signing Jose Abreu has actually been a negative war player. 

Angels come in just behind the Houston on payroll at 235 mil, but much of that payroll has been injured.  They got off to hot start looking like a playoff team, then Trout, and Rondon do what they do and get hurt.  

Toronto comes in next at 213 mil, and they are fighting for a wild card spot 8.5 out of first but in the wild right now.  Atlanta is at 205 mil, and crushing their division up 11.5 over Phillies.  The next three teams are all fighting for playoff spots, Giants at 186, Cubs at 185, and Boston at 180.  All are fighting for wild card, and cubs trying to win division too. Rockies are next just above league average at 169 mil.  They are dead last in division, but one of their highest paid players has been hurt much of year.

White Sox come in just below the league average payroll at 162 mil, and sporting a 4th place record and sold at deadline.  Twins are next at 154, holding first place being only non selling team in division.  Their highest paid players on offense have been some of the least valuable players as well. Just behind Twins at 152 mil is St. Louis, a last place team. 

Seattle is at 134 mil, fighting for wild card spot, with a slightly better win percentage than Twins.  Milwaukee at 124 mil are in first place.  Detroit at 121 mil are in third place with little chance of making playoffs.  Diamondbacks at 118 started off super hot, but after break have fallen off cliff, dropping out of any playoff chances.  Miami is at 101 mil fighting for wild card.

The bottom 8 teams are a mixed bag.  The Reds at 93 mil have surprised many with a hot stretch and was in first place for a bit.  They have cooled off still fighting for wild card spot, but their top paid players are not the reason for the surge.  The nationals come in at 93 mil as well, and have been near bottom of division all year. KC is at 90 mil, being one of worst teams all year.  Cleveland comes in at 88 mil and has been neck and neck with Twins most of year, but sold at deadline. 

Next two are Tampa at 78 mil and Baltimore at 70 mil.  Tampa surged to huge lead at beginning of year, then dropped back to earth in middle months.  Baltimore built off of what last year brought and just kept going with their young hitters carrying the team to an AL leading record.  

Pittsburgh is 29th in payroll at 68 mil, started off hot being in first place in May, but since they have been what was expected, injuries did not help, but they sold at deadline.  Then there is Oakland who is doing a real life Major League by actively trying to lose it would seem to force their way out of town. They have a payroll of 58 mil.  Not even sure how they got their. 

A deeper dive into how the high priced players could open some more info, but it is interesting that this year, the top 3 payrolls are not likely to make playoffs, and only the Yankees can point to injury of their top guy, but it shows how lack of depth they really had, even paying Hicks to play now for Baltimore, where he is playing much better for them than he did for New York this year.  Other teams have also under performed. 

Then you have the run of 10 teams in top half of payrolls all either clearly in, or fighting for a playoff spot.  Next teams around league average are a mixed bag, either terrible or fighting for first place.  Then there are the few very lost payroll teams among best records in league.  When you look at how much money is on IL, Angles lead league with 101 mil currently on IL, mostly from Trout and Rondon.  Yankees have 80 mil, and had Judge out for a long time as well.  Those are the only teams on the high end of payroll that have 25% of payroll on IL.  

To sum up, high payroll this year, does not fully equate to wins, as the three highest are not making playoffs.  However, higher overall payroll seems to help winning as the rest of the above average payrolls, outside of Rockies who are just above average, all are either well on way to playoffs or fighting for it.  On the bottom half of payroll, a few teams are fighting for playoff spots, but most are in divisions were no one is paying huge sums.  The AL central does not have 1 team in top half of payrolls, with White Sox just below average, and 8 mil more than Twins.  Clearly it did not work well for Sox this year.  The NL central has 1 team in top half, the Cubs, outside of that everyone has payroll below the Twins. So when compared to teams in the division, Twins are second in payroll, close to Sox, beating them badly, but barely above Cleveland who are last in division in payroll.  The NL central the rankings of payroll and standings are a bit all over the place.  Pirates are well last in payroll, and tied with Cards for last place, but the Cards are second in payroll behind Cubs.  Cubs are essentially tied with Reds for second 3.5 behind Brewers.  

Then the 2 way low payroll to win ratio of Tampa and Baltimore.  Rays are generally always low and have been a good team for years. Baltimore is doing it with young kids that are crushing getting league min. 

I think generally higher payroll will generally result in more wins, but clearly that is not always the fact.  Really, if you look at the Twins, the high priced guys outside some pitching, they are not carrying the team, but the younger guys have been.  This overall makes sense when you look at how things work.  Even if you are not going out buying big name FA, when you have a controlled guy in arbitration you need to pay more for their production they give you.  So even if you have younger team overall, if they are in arbitration years, they will cost you more if they perform well.  So no matter how a roster is built if it is built by bring up guys through system and retaining them through arbitration years, or bringing in a ton of high priced FA, you will be spending more.  Baltimore will need to raise payroll in a couple of years or trade away the young guys making league min that are carrying their team. 

However, I would also say, that just trying to trade for and buy FA will not equal wins either.  Padres and Mets have shown that can be an issue.  Part of the question is, does payroll equal wins, or will wins equal payroll to maintain?