Article: Two Strike Counts and Joe Mauer

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1614-Two-strike-counts-and-Joe-Mauer

[ashbury]

His not being petrified of having two strikes on him allows him to be extremely selective early in the count, and not swing at just any old thing just because the count is favorable and he'd "expect" a fat pitch.

[Guest USAFChief]

Like virtually every hitter who's ever played baseball, Joe Mauer is a much worse hitter with two strikes on him. That he's not horrible with two strikes is a good thing, maybe even a great thing. But let's not pretend it's a good thing when he gets two strikes on him. It's not.

[70charger]

I'm not sure anyone's said that. Maybe some overzealous people might creep in that direction, but I thought the author was pretty clear. Obviously, his batting average is lower with 2 strikes than his overall batting average, but it's much higher than the norm as compared to the rest of the majors. In fact, his average in two strike counts is higher than the major league overall average. That's something.

 

Hence the difference between "strike two, you're out" with a normal player, contrasted with the "strike two, don't panic" with Joe Mauer. Mauer was also called one of the best two-strike hitters in history. Which he is. But the author never hinted that therefore Joe should attempt to get into two strike counts.

[ThePuck]

I'm not sure anyone's said that. Maybe some overzealous people might creep in that direction, but I thought the author was pretty clear. Obviously, his batting average is lower with 2 strikes than his overall batting average, but it's much higher than the norm as compared to the rest of the majors. In fact, his average in two strike counts is higher than the major league overall average. That's something.

 

Hence the difference between "strike two, you're out" with a normal player, contrasted with the "strike two, don't panic" with Joe Mauer. Mauer was also called one of the best two-strike hitters in history. Which he is. But the author never hinted that therefore Joe should attempt to get into two strike counts.

 

exactly.

[Physics Guy]

Hitting with two strikes is what makes Joe a great hitter. He has a great OBP because he is able to draw walks by taking more pitches. Do I wish he didn't take as many pitches? Sure, but the number of pitches he takes does help to wear down the pitcher. His average is consistently in the .300's because his two-strike BA doesn't drag him down. The way he is hitting with two strikes this year is unbelievable.

 

As for Pierre and Suzuki, it's pretty clear why they are on the list. They are both good contact hitters, with low K rates. With two strikes they put the ball in play and use their speed to get infield hits. I would hazard to guess that they, in their younger days, were amongst the leaders in IF hits.

[ashbury]

I probably should just go find the site with these breakdowns, but one thing that occurs to me is that lumping "two strikes" together may be what accounts for Joe's edge over other batters. Splitting stats further risks SSS of course; but if batters do worse on 0-2 than 1-2 (than 2-2, than 3-2), then *if* Joe is facing fewer of the highly unfavorable two-strike counts (due to better batting eye and selectivity, presumably) it would skew the totals to his advantage. Which of course is a good thing, but maybe at 0-2 specifically, he's no better relative to his norm than anyone else is.

[ashbury]

I'm not sure anyone's said that.

 

Well, Cody in his article said:

 

...he doesn't seem to have any trouble when he finds himself deep in a two strike hole. It almost seems as if Mauer becomes a better hitter as an at-bat is extended.

 

My emphasis added.

[ashbury]

But let's not pretend it's a good thing when he gets two strikes on him. It's not.

 

While I basically agree, I'll go back to the point in my original response, that maybe Joe being better than average at dealing with two strikes has its main payoff earlier in the count when he can afford to be selective on a nominally favorable count like 2-1.

[ThePuck]

I probably should just go find the site with these breakdowns, but one thing that occurs to me is that lumping "two strikes" together may be what accounts for Joe's edge over other batters. Splitting stats further risks SSS of course; but if batters do worse on 0-2 than 1-2 (than 2-2, than 3-2), then *if* Joe is facing fewer of the highly unfavorable two-strike counts (due to better batting eye and selectivity, presumably) it would skew the totals to his advantage. Which of course is a good thing, but maybe at 0-2 specifically, he's no better relative to his norm than anyone else is.

 

For his career, after getting himself an 0-2 count, he's batting .244. When attempting to put the ball in play on an 0-2 count, he's hit .236 for his career. I believe that's quite a bit better than the norm.

[Guest USAFChief]

I probably should just go find the site with these breakdowns, but one thing that occurs to me is that lumping "two strikes" together may be what accounts for Joe's edge over other batters. Splitting stats further risks SSS of course; but if batters do worse on 0-2 than 1-2 (than 2-2, than 3-2), then *if* Joe is facing fewer of the highly unfavorable two-strike counts (due to better batting eye and selectivity, presumably) it would skew the totals to his advantage. Which of course is a good thing, but maybe at 0-2 specifically, he's no better relative to his norm than anyone else is.

Relative career splits can be found here: Joe Mauer Career Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com I'll repeat: Mauer is better with 2 strikes than most hitters. He's significantly worse than he is when he doesn't have 2 strikes. Perhaps most significantly: when ahead in the count, for his career he's a .381/.563/.584 hitter. When behind in the count: .261/.262/.363 After 0-2: .244/.259/.332

[drjim]

Relative career splits can be found here: Joe Mauer Career Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com I'll repeat: Mauer is better with 2 strikes than most hitters. He's significantly worse than he is when he doesn't have 2 strikes. Perhaps most significantly: when ahead in the count, for his career he's a .381/.563/.584 hitter. When behind in the count: .261/.262/.363 After 0-2: .244/.259/.332

 

This reminds me of the point in Moneyball where they talk about the great numbers Hatteberg had when he swung at the first pitch. It was thought he should swing at more first pitches, but that kind of defeated the point of why he had such good numbers in that situation, because he was so selective.

 

It would be pretty amazing if Mauer had worse numbers with less than two strikes than with two strikes. If Mauer puts a pitch in play with less than two strikes it is likely a pitch that he really wanted and was able to put a good swing on it resulting in a better outcome.

 

If Mauer started swinging at more pitches with less than two strikes his numbers in those situations would drop (probably by a substantial margin because he will be chasing more out of his comfort zone) and it would probably coincide with slight drops in 2 strike numbers as well (as some of his advantage gained by seeing more pitches would be mitigated).