Leadoff Spot

[ThePuck]

In one of my first posts, I referred to using WAR in this situation as "not ideal" but at least WAR factors in offensive contribution.

 

The ballpark might not help much but I think it will help him as a CFer... every MLB ballpark has player zones that are virtually unreachable. Citizen's Bank has fewer "unreachable" player zones than Target Field due to its size. There won't be many balls that Revere can't chase down in that ballpark. If Revere was in RF (where there are fewer "unreachable" zones), I might feel differently about it.

 

And then there's the Phillies pitching staff.

 

but, hypothetically, wouldn't having less room to roam on the surface make his range smaller? And wouldn't the pitching staff they have give him less Opps to build his DRS?

[Guest USAFChief]

And, again, I mentioned that using WAR in this situation was not ideal in one of my first posts...

Pray tell...when would using WAR be "ideal?"

[Brock Beauchamp]

okay then, let's go with defensive runs saved. -1 in 2011 in CF, 11 in RF

 

Still a small sample size but getting better... Since this conversation started about WAR, you have to factor in how much better Revere's bat looks in center than right. There are a ton of variables here and focusing on one is not going to give a solid view of the player as a whole.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pray tell...when would using WAR be "ideal?"

 

I was waiting for you to chime in, you snarky old coot.

[ThePuck]

Right, UZR/150 is no different than taking 5 homeruns in 10 games and calling a player an 80 homerun hitter.

 

We can take out the average and look at UZR actual. 8.3 in 776 innings in CF in 2011. 15.4 in 708 innings in RF.

 

Or look at DRS defensive runs saved. -1 in 2011 in CF, 11 in RF.

 

Any way you slice it...he has more value in RF defensively....and I don't see how having a smaller ballpark will help his offensive game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We can take out the average and look at UZR actual. 8.3 in 776 innings in CF in 2011. 15.4 in 708 innings in RF. Any way you slice it...he has more value in RF defensively....and I don't see how having a smaller ballpark will help his offensive game

 

Has anyone claimed a smaller ballpark will help his offensive game? Personally, I think it's mostly irrelevant... Revere puts the ball on the ground a lot.

 

And again, defensive metrics using less than a full season of data (preferably even more than that) can produce misleading information. It doesn't matter which metric you use, it's a bad idea.

[Guest USAFChief]

Still a small sample size but getting better... Since this conversation started about WAR, you have to factor in how much better Revere's bat looks in center than right. There are a ton of variables here and focusing on one is not going to give a solid view of the player as a whole.

Because we all know the value of a base hit varies according to which defensive position you play. Singles from right fielders do not count as much as singles from center fielders. Weird game, baseball.

[ThePuck]

snepp,

 

What did Fangraphs replace UZR with when calculating the defensive part of WAR?

 

Calculating WAR for Position Players | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

[Brock Beauchamp]

Because we all know the value of a base hit varies according to which defensive position you play. Singles from right fielders do not count as much as singles from center fielders. Weird game, baseball.

 

It matters when you can pull a RFer off the scrapheap and expect a .700 OPS versus a .600 OPS for a scrapheap CFer.

 

This is why Joe Mauer>John Olerud.

[ThePuck]

It matters when you can pull a RFer off the scrapheap and expect a .700 OPS versus a .600 OPS for a scrapheap CFer.

 

This is why Joe Mauer>John Olerud.

 

I any event, I enjoyed the exchange of ideas with you. Here's hoping Revere has a better career than I think he will.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I any event, I enjoyed the exchange of ideas with you. Here's hoping Revere has a better career than I think he will.

 

Which is kind of funny because I was never high on Revere and wanted him traded the moment he started hitting in 2012.

 

I merely think he'll be decent for a few years and then serviceable for a few more.

[ThePuck]

I merely think he'll be decent for a few years and then serviceable for a few more.

 

Sounds a lot like....Juan Pierre :-)

[jokin]

Sounds a lot like....Juan Pierre :-)

 

(Only better!)

[Guest USAFChief]

It matters when you can pull a RFer off the scrapheap and expect a .700 OPS versus a .600 OPS for a scrapheap CFer.

 

This is why Joe Mauer>John Olerud.

I get it now. A base hit from Ben Revere is worth less as a right fielder than as a center fielder because of...wait, what? Because of who will play if Ben Revere isn't there? I take that back. I don't get it.

[ThePuck]

(Only better!)

 

we'll see. I hope so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

but, hypothetically, wouldn't having less room to roam on the surface make his range smaller? And wouldn't the pitching staff they have give him less Opps to build his DRS?

 

It's possible but I don't think so. I'm also open to the idea that I may be wrong about this.

 

Like I said, every MLB ballpark has unreachable zones, particularly in CF. In Citizen's, Revere will have fewer unreachable zones, particularly heading straight back to the wall, the hardest area of CF to reach quickly and reel in a ball. A smaller CF also means the player can play in a step or two and get a few more of those Texas Leaguers that drop in over second base.

 

As for the pitching staff, better pitching equals weaker contact. Weaker contact means less line drives. Less line drives equals more balls caught by rangy players.

[ThePuck]

It's possible but I don't think so. I'm also open to the idea that I may be wrong about this.

 

Like I said, every MLB ballpark has unreachable zones, particularly in CF. In Citizen's, Revere will have fewer unreachable zones, particularly heading straight back to the wall, the hardest area of CF to reach quickly and reel in a ball. A smaller CF also means the player can play in a step or two and get a few more of those Texas Leaguers that drop in over second base.

 

As for the pitching staff, better pitching equals weaker contact. Weaker contact means less line drives. Less line drives equals more balls caught by rangy players.

 

it also means less OF chances, I'd imagine. it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Shane Wahl]

Which is kind of funny because I was never high on Revere and wanted him traded the moment he started hitting in 2012.

 

I merely think he'll be decent for a few years and then serviceable for a few more.

 

Well, he will be serviceable for a long time as a fourth OF, starting in his 30s.

 

I think both teams still got good deals in that trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I get it now. A base hit from Ben Revere is worth less as a right fielder than as a center fielder because of...wait, what? Because of who will play if Ben Revere isn't there? I take that back. I don't get it.

 

It's a relative metric. It's not based on outright production, it's based on expected production. It's not difficult and methinks you're being deliberately obtuse about it. If you want outright production stats, there are plenty of them for you to use... But that's not what this conversation is about.

[Guest USAFChief]

Like I said, every MLB ballpark has unreachable zones, particularly in CF.

Please elaborate. Are you saying there are parts of every major league park where no ball is ever caught?

[Shane Wahl]

I get it now. A base hit from Ben Revere is worth less as a right fielder than as a center fielder because of...wait, what? Because of who will play if Ben Revere isn't there? I take that back. I don't get it.

 

Um, you answered your own question (ironically with a question mark at the end of the sentence).

[snepp]

Any way you slice it...he has more value in RF defensively....

 

Every centerfielder alive has more value in a corner spot defensively compared to all the lumbering oafs that roam out there. I'm really struggling to see the point behind this.

 

No, his WAR won't automatically go down just because he "loses" defensive value in center, because the value of the position goes up in similar proportion. The difference in positional value between a corner spot, and centerfield, is 10 runs over a full season (-7.5 runs for LF/RF, +2.5 for CF). It's possible he loses more than 10 runs of defensive value between the two, but that's stretching it a bit.

[jokin]

Please elaborate. Are you saying there are parts of every major league park where no ball is ever caught?

 

Fenway has an area in left field...

[Brock Beauchamp]

it also means less OF chances, I'd imagine. it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

Agreed, it also means less chances. I'm not sure how that will impact that metrics at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Please elaborate. Are you saying there are parts of every major league park where no ball is ever caught?

 

Not ever caught, just rarely caught. I used "virtually unreachable" in previous posts and left out the "virtually" in that last one...

[Shane Wahl]

The game might be more interesting if there were true unreachable zones.

[ThePuck]

Agreed, it also means less chances. I'm not sure how that will impact that metrics at all.

 

likely cut down on DRS

[Guest USAFChief]

It's a relative metric. It's not based on outright production, it's based on expected production. It's not difficult and methinks you're being deliberately obtuse about it. If you want outright production stats, there are plenty of them for you to use... But that's not what this conversation is about.

First, we both know I'm being deliberately...difficult. However, I don't think asking questions you don't want asked is being obtuse. If my questions are easily answered, please do so. Second, we're discussing WAR because of statements you made, not me. It seems to me if you're going to use WAR, you should be able to defend it with more than "fine, use something else." I happen to think WAR is junk science, and I'm going to occasionally call on those who use it to defend their stance. Hopefully, with a bit of snark and good humor along the way, and hopefully with some insight along the way. It's all good, pig. No need to get quite so defensive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The game might be more interesting if there were true unreachable zones.

 

"We'll have to take an injury break because Revere just dove into the newly-installed quicksand in the left-centerfield gap."

[Brock Beauchamp]

First, we both know I'm being deliberately...difficult. However, I don't think asking questions you don't want asked is being obtuse. If my questions are easily answered, please do so. Second, we're discussing WAR because of statements you made, not me. It seems to me if you're going to use WAR, you should be able to defend it with more than "fine, use something else." I happen to think WAR is junk science, and I'm going to occasionally call on those who use it to defend their stance. Hopefully, with a bit of snark and good humor along the way, and hopefully with some insight along the way. It's all good, pig. No need to get quite so defensive.

 

I wasn't being defensive.

 

Now get off my lawn!