Front Page: State of the Twins Rotation

[Major League Ready]

 

Just using the $60M idea, and how I've used it when building a model, plenty of room to re-sign both Oddo and Pineda. Even some money left over if we go the trade or FA route for anyone not named Stasburg or Cole. They put us about even in the event of such a signing. NOT saying that will be the payroll, just playing with that number as a cautionary budget.

I don't feel bad at all with Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol fighting for the 5th spot. (Could even see a chap flier brought on board). I just don't see Perez brought back on full option contract. But like you stated, I could see something smaller. Maybe another year with Johnson and his new cutter could make a difference.

 

If they let Schoop / Castro and Perez go, the payroll decrease is a little over $60M. They do have quite a few arbitration cases but you have to believe the net would cover Odorizzi, Pineada and a Wheeler type SP. Plus, revenue is up so there is payroll capacity. Then, there is always the possibility of other moves like trading Rosario. I don't believe they could get the type of ML SP we need this year but the difference in his 2020 compensation being added to the mix could make Strasburg or Cole possible. Of course, having the payroll capacity and convincing them to play for a mid-market team are two different things.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Major League Ready

[DocBauer]

If they let Schoop / Castro and Perez go, the payroll decrease is a little over $60M. They do have quite a few arbitration cases but you have to believe the net would cover Odorizzi, Pineada and a Wheeler type SP. Plus, revenue is up so there is payroll capacity. Then, there is always the possibility of other moves like trading Rosario. I don't believe they could get the type of ML SP we need this year but the difference in his 2020 compensation being added to the mix could make Strasburg or Cole possible. Of course, having the payroll capacity and convincing them to play for a mid-market team are two different things.

Nice post and we are thinking along the same lines. Thought I'd comment in bullet points.

 

1] I think Castro may be back on a reduced deal for a year plus. And to me it makes tons of sense for both sides. I just don't see a big offer for Castro, had bet well paid at $4-5M as a veteran playing 30-40% of the time.

 

2] Cron, or similar, still fits in for about $5M. When I do MY math, even with Romo re-signed, I still see approximately $60M for Oddo, Pineda and about $30M left over.

 

3] Even if Cole or Strasburg would say yes to $30M, we would still be awfully close to the 2019 payroll. That is before a hike in arbitration or re-sign contracts. And yet, the mythical/proposed $60M number includes some reasonable arbitration numbers. So, again, we are playing with 2019 payroll numbers, give or take a little.

 

Now, we make a trade instead, or slide to a Wheeler or Bumgarner 2nd tier FA, there is more money on the table for flexibility in regard to extensions and such. Considering the ML mean in 2020 will again be about $150M, a number the Twins should easily be able to cover, there remains tons of flexibility.

 

4] I don't see Rosario being traded. At least not at this point. By himself, he doesn't bring back the SP you want/need. So why not a prospect laden trade for what you need, which is what a re-building team would be looking for. Unless you have a sort of reverse Indians/Reds deal at hand in regard to the Bauer move.

 

Plus, with questions about Buxton remaining, and Kepler and Larnach not yet ready, there is too much of a gamble there, IMO.

 

*Side note: despite some streaks and fighting a bum ankle late in the season, I find it humorous how easily some dismiss Rosario despite having the most productive season of his career.

 

No matter what I'm still about 50/50 the Twins sign a major FA outside the organization vs making a 3-5 prospect deal for a SP they really like and believe in.