Fourth Outfielder Upgrade?

[ThejacKmp]

I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades.

 

• The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much.
• The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost.
• The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade.

 

The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back).

 

The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF.

 

The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again?

 

He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF.

 

The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream.

 

Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like:

 

1B Mauer ( L )
2B Dozier ( R )
DH Sano ( R )
RF McCutchen ( R )
LF Rosario/Kepler ( L )
CF Buxton ( R )
3B Escobar ( S )
C Garver ( R )
SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S )

 

You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.

[ThejacKmp]

Making things interesting, the Giants are paying $208 Million for this team and are over the luxury cap by $11 million-ish. They were over the luxury tax limit by $3 million last year too so getting under this year would allow them to reset the increasingly draconian penalty and avoid being a third time offender next year.

 

Getting McCutchen ($15 million) off the books would bring them close to getting under the cap. The Giants might have to move a guy like McCutchen because there aren't a lot of other options:

 

•Hunter Pence is the only other big-money expiring contract and he's going to be very difficult to move. Joe Panik has an expiring deal but he's only making $3.5 million so that doesn't move the needle much.
•Posey has value but it's hard to see the face of the franchise being traded and his contract is pretty massive for a 31 year old catcher.
•Baumgardner has a lot of value when he comes back and is likely the biggest chip the Giants have for getting prospects but it's hard to see the Giants moving him. Baumgardner + McCutchen would get the Giants under the cap FWIW.
•Melancon, Longoria, Crawford, Cueto, Shark and Belt are all on too long of deals and not effective enough to be realistically moved IMO.
•Austin Jackson and Tony Watson each make only $3 million this year and next and might have some interest as a 4th OF or middle reliever salary dump to get the balance of the $11 million after McCutchen theoretically goes.

 

Larger point is that if the Giants were to lose 20 of their next 30 games or so (not hard without Cueto or MadBaum) and decided resetting the luxury tax is a priority, it's hard not to see McCutchen being a part of that. The earlier they move him, the more of his salary they get off their books. Might be a nice opportunity for the Twins to get a new 4th OF in early June.

[Thrylos]

They should had gotten McCutchen last winter, when they could.  Some of us, at least thought so...

 

The Giants have a better record than the Twins.  They will not be sellers.   Outfielders available at the deadline would be the likes of Cameron Maybin, Adam "don't call me Pacman" Jones, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and a bunch of AAAA guys.   Would anyone be better than Grossman or Granite?  Maybe the Rays' guys but the Twins don't need another lefty OF and Gomez is slumping.

 

The way this season goes, the NL is ultra competitive, while the AL is already polarized.  With the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Seattle playing the way they have, the Twins will likely have to win the division to make the post-season.  In the NL, the Giants, among many others are competing for those wild cards, because no 2-3 teams are clearly away.

 

The way it looks right now, five game winning streak or not, unless the Twins get their act together, get ahead of Cleveland and get some separation, they will be sellers not buyers at the deadline....

 

[AZTwin]

Giants fans want to go all in. They are convinced they are the favorite for Bryce Harper next year too

[ThejacKmp]

 

They should had gotten McCutchen last winter, when they could.  Some of us, at least thought so...

 

The Giants have a better record than the Twins.  They will not be sellers.   Outfielders available at the deadline would be the likes of Cameron Maybin, Adam "don't call me Pacman" Jones, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and a bunch of AAAA guys.   Would anyone be better than Grossman or Granite?  Maybe the Rays' guys but the Twins don't need another lefty OF and Gomez is slumping.

 

The way this season goes, the NL is ultra competitive, while the AL is already polarized.  With the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Seattle playing the way they have, the Twins will likely have to win the division to make the post-season.  In the NL, the Giants, among many others are competing for those wild cards, because no 2-3 teams are clearly away.

 

The way it looks right now, five game winning streak or not, unless the Twins get their act together, get ahead of Cleveland and get some separation, they will be sellers not buyers at the deadline....

 

I doubt that McCutchen in the offseason would have been willing to be a platoon/4th OF this year. He's heading into free agency and sees himself as a starting outfielder. Would you want a malcontented McCutchen on the roster or cut Rosario/Kepler playing time? McCutchen made no sense in the offseason. That changes during the season as guys think about winning and the "reserve OF for a playoff team" overrides the need to play for the next contract thing.

 

The Giants have a marginally better record but are already 5.5 games behind the D-Backs and Rockies vs 1.5 behind just Cleveland for the Twins. And that's not including a Dodgers team that should play better. They also have their top two starters hurt for at least the month of May and likely most of June. They also have three good teams in their division, not one. The Giants have lost 4 straight.

 

The Giants could very well end up sellers. If they go 10-20 over the next month without Baum and Cueto, they'll be sellers for sure. They're not going to liquidate their team but they may make some minor moves to get under the tax and set themselves up to make a run at Harper/Machado etc. Harder to spend so much on Harper if you're a three time tax repeater. Easy if you reset it like the Yankees did.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Giants fans want to go all in. They are convinced they are the favorite for Bryce Harper next year too

 

If they want to go after Harper/Machado, they will want to get under the luxury cap this year to avoid being a three-time repeater. The only way to do that without selling the very pieces that would attract Harper would involve moving McCutchen or Pence. Pence is unmovable so McCutchen it is.

[TFRazor]

If I really had a choice, I'd rather we go after MadBum. I'd also be willing to give up more in the way of prospects for him

[twins1095]

I think I'd rather go in-house with options like Ryan Lemarre, Zach Granite, and Lamonte Wade in that spot than trade assets or go after a guy like McCutchen.  

 

Wade's profile and his ability to take quality ABs, draw walks, and get on base would be intriguing and pretty much exactly what you would hope for from your 4th OF if they have to step in for a stint.  Wade's got a similar level of command at the plate to Robbie Grossman...except he strikes out even less, walks even more, has a better hit tool, and can play the OF pretty decently. 

 

146 AA games: 89 runs, 22 2Bs, 4 3Bs, 11 HRs, 79 RBIs, 13 SB, 92 BB's to just 81 K's .295/.395/.415/.810 slash. 

 

In my mind that's as good of a fit as they come.