How Things Shape Up, Sept. 26 edition

[IndianaTwin]

I’ve written a number of these “How Things Stack Up” documents, with the plan to write another at the beginning of each series. On one hand, it now seems pointless, since the circumstances are so cut and dried. On the other hand, it seems appropriate, for two reasons. First, my personality is such that I hate to leave things undone, and a promise is a promise. I said I was going to do it, so dad gummit, I’m going to do it. Second, I think it’s worth looking at what really happened the last few days and celebrate. Things aren’t done yet, but things are looking really good.

 

So I’ll compromise and write a briefer one. I waited until after Monday night to get nearly everyone back to the same number of games played.

 

What a last few days. Not only have the Twins continued to do what they’ve needed to do – play at least .500 ball – the teams behind them have not. While the Twins have gone 5-5 over the last 10 games, the six teams behind them have gone a combined 20-40, with none of them better than 4-6.

 

So, to summarize, let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when we headed to Detroit to take on what amounts to the Kittens.

 

Before:
NYY    +7.0
Min        ---
LAA      -1.5
Tex       -2.5
KC        -3.5
Sea      -4.0
TB        -4.0
Bal       -5.5

 

After:
NYY    +5.0
Min      ---
LAA     -5.0
KC       -6.0
TB       -6.0
Tex      -6.0
Sea      eliminated
Bal       eliminated

 

Admire that, folks. We actually picked up two games on the Yankees and kept our hopes of hosting the Wild Card game mathematically alive. Keep in mind that the tiebreaker (I think) for determining who hosts a Wild Card game is head-to-head play and the Yankees have the advantage at 4-2, so the Twins are effectively 6 games behind with six to go. That means they have to win out and have the Yankees lose out. Probably not going to happen.

 

But on the other side, we picked up 3.5 on the Angels and Rangers, the two teams closest to us. We picked up 2.5 on the Royals and Mariners, eliminating the Mariners. We picked up 2.0 on the Rays and Orioles, eliminating the Orioles. Two teams eliminated, a magic number of 1 on the Royals, Rays, and Rangers and 2 on the Angels. That’s a pretty good five days!

 

If we were flipping coins, there would be a 0.0244 percent chance of us getting the home game against the Yankees. That’s one chance in 4096. But similarly, that’s the chance of the Royals, Rays, or Rangers catching us. The Angels are at one 1 in 2048. I wasn’t a math major, but I think I have this right in saying that there is a 5 in 4096 chance of one of those four teams catching the Twins. That amounts to 1 in 819.2. So I’m saying there’s a chance.

 

Rather than a full snapshot, I’ll just list the...

 

Remaining games:

• YANKEES: vs. TB (3), vs. Tor (3).
• TWINS: vs. Cle (3), vs. Det (3)
• LA ANGELS: @ CWS (3), vs. Sea (3).
• RANGERS: Hou (2), Oak (4).
• ROYALS: Det (3), Ariz (3).
• RAYS: @ NYY (3), Bal (3).
• MARINERS: Eliminated.
• ORIOLES: Eliminated.

[Doomtints]

The White Sox, Mariners, and Athletics seem to be loving their roles as spoilers.

 

But then, we also overestimated our competition. While these teams were around .500 when it started to really matter in September, but they weren't good teams over the long haul. The Angels and Rangers played over their heads in August but were otherwise not exciting. The Royals were the enigma, playing well in the middle of the year but playing poorly at the start and end of the year.

 

The Twins are the antithesis of the Royals, having started and finished the year well but playing poorly in the middle. 4 months > 2 months.