David J Hurlbut-2017

[goulik]

Born: Nov 24, 1989 in Fullerton CA

College: Cal State Fullerton

Drafted: 35th Round, 2009 (did not sign)

28th Round, 2011

 

After being drafted in 2011, Hurlbut jumped right to ETown being a college kid and posted his career worst 4.50 ERA in 66 innings. He had a healthy 51 K's to 12 BB's and until this year, a career worst 1.42 WHIP.

 

In 2012 he was sent to Beloit where in 25 games he tossed 111 innings with a very nice 2.76 ERA. He had 85 K's to 25 BB's and a 1.17 WHIP.

 

Hurlbut spent most of 2013 repeating at the Low A level, this time in Cedar Rapids as a reliever 10 of his 24 appearances there with a 4 game call up to Fort Myers exclusively as a starter. He had a combined 2.82 ERA while his K rate spiked to a career high 8.2 and he also posted a career best WHIP at 1.11.

 

2014 began with Hurlbut pitching well as a starter in FM but on June 3 he went down with injury and did not come back from rehab until Aug 2. He posted a career low ERA of 2.20 and still had a nice WHIP at 1.15 but he also had a career worst K/9 of 4.8. He tossed his first of 4 complete games in 2014.

 

2015 was his first year exclusively used as a starter. He lost another month to injury but rebounded well and averaged 5.95 innings per game hurling 119 innings to the tune of a 3.18 ERA. He started 17 games for Chattanooga, Two for FM, and had a 1 game appearance for the Red Wings as well. His 5.3 K/9 was second worst only to 2014 and his WHIP "ballooned" to 1.34 but he tossed 2 more complete games and was finally emerging as a starting prospect and not just a guy that would need to transition to reliever in order to make it.

 

Hurlbut began 2016 repeating AA which is one of those things that really frustrates those of us that watch how our minor league starting pitchers are handled. Why wasn't he moved up to Rochester to develop and some of the dead weight moved out? We are seeing more of this this year still...hopefully this is a change Falvine will make in the process in future years after this year of analysis...

 

In any case, 2016, Hurlbut had 23 games in Chattanooga and 5 in Rochester, all as a starter for the second year in a row. He had a combined 3.67 ERA over 162 innings. His K rate improved to 5.8 while his walks plummetted with only 29 walks on the year. He also got this: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/killebrew-award-winner-david-hurlbut-chattanooga-r5156

 

In 2017, Hurlbut has started 10 games and is holding a 3.79 ERA. He has not completed a 7th inning yet and is averaging 5 and a half innings per start mostly due to one real klunker where he gave up 7 runs in 3 innings. His K/9 is at 6.4 with 3 K's per walk surrendered. He started the season not allowing a run in his first two appearances and only allowing 5 runs in his first 5 games combined. 4 of the last 5 games have been solid but he did have that klunker...

 

Combining all 7 seasons, Hurlbut has 3.15 K's per walk, a 1.297 WHIP, 6.2 K9 and he surrenders a home run once per 18 innings pitched.His name has come up as someone that could be given a shot over the likes of Tepesch and Wilk. I am not sure he would do much better as a rookie than the other two but with a name like Hurlbut and with our current state of affairs in the starting rotation, he may get that shot. If he does, we are hoping for 5 innings allowing 3-4 runs. Hey, if he does that, it would be a big improvement over many we have seen...

[goulik]

In his first full season at AAA, The Lefty has hurled his butt off to the tune of an 8-5 record with a 3.34 ERA in 97 innings. He has a 2.0 W/9 and 7.0 K/9 and his WHIP is ok at 1.33.

 

So why is he not a call up? Well, his BAA is .285 (fangraphs says .279?) and GO/AO rate while still at 1.26 is .38 less than his career rate of 1.64. A ground ball machine in the lower minors has not fully translated to AAA. (Yet?) Last year in AA before his promotion, the rate was 1.71. Hurlbuts BABIP this year is .334 and his career BABIP is .299.

[ashbury]

hurled his butt off

[goulik]

Hurlbut has finished his first complete AAA season having only gotten a taste of AAA the past two seasons. He made 23 appearances, 22 starts, and finished with a 10-8 record and a 3.44 ERA in 130.2 total innings. He walked 30 while striking out 103 hitters. He gave up an opposing BA of .292 and had a 1.39 WHIP when the season came to a close. 

 

So in the end, I would say solid but not spectacular results. I am unsure what will happen with Hurlbut in the off season but he would make a solid AAA pitcher next year if we have room. My forecast is that we lose him to MiLB free agency as we have other more promising prospects.

 

He will turn 28 in a couple months, so, If he comes back, he might be best served trying to transition to the Bullpen. In any case, his prospect status is running out. As a starter he may remain AAAA type pitcher.