Revere's Plate Discipline

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know... but for that year... Adam Dunn was worthless... You take his power away and you ain't got much. If it happens to Ben... Yeah we got a problem. Speed is pretty much what he's about.

 

Right now... He's running just fine... He might struggle with an injury in years to come but there is also the possibility that he keeps running into his 30's.

 

The whole point is that attributes can collapse for any player for a time and nearly every player has specific attributes that are crucial to the job they do. Saying Ben is a leg injury away from being worthless is valid but it also can be said that a wrist injury to Justin Morneau can do the same.

 

Speed declines as you age and so does power. Power is bat speed and you lose it over time as well.

Dunn didn't just lose power. He lost the ability to hit the ball, period (he hit what, .160 last year?). He's also a DH. That's a pretty one-dimensional position. Of course a DH that doesn't hit the ball is pretty worthless.

 

I already outlined a comparison to Span earlier. You're missing my point about players like Revere, not Revere himself. I'm not going to start arguing in circles. Guys who rely on speed and contact often break out and then disappear shortly thereafter. Look at the Twins middle infield for the past 15 years.

 

PS. Every player is useless after a wrist injury that hinders bat speed or throwing motion. Awful comparison.

[Riverbrian]

You're assuming that all tools were created equally. I'm pretty sure range is more important than arm strength and that power is more important than average.

 

Back to my point. Ben has two real tools. Contact and speed. Everything he does well is linked to those two tools.

 

And because one of those tools is speed, that's a dangerous tightrope to walk if you want continued success in the major leagues. Guys start off their careers all the time as speedy, defense-oriented contact hitters and they also fail all the time. The Twins have had a non-stop line of these guys pass through the organization for the past 15 years, most of them under the guise of "middle infielder". Over time, every one of them broke down and turned into a sub-standard player because their over-reliance on one tool wasn't enough to adjust to major league pitching. Or maybe they lost a step. When your skill set is so reliant on pure athleticism, it doesn't take much to go from slightly above average to well below in the blink of an eye.

I hear ya... I actually agree with what you are saying to a point. I'm just hopeful that folks can enjoy the speed while it's here cuz it's fun to watch.

 

I also believe that Ben Revere is faster and a better hitter than Christian Guzman. If his speed declines... Let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

 

We have an army of young OF'ers coming up. If they out play Ben... Then they out play him. Right now... It's his time.

 

I have always said that if we had Corey Hart or Shin Soo Choo... I'd have Ben playing in Rochester. We don't.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

Again, not wishing any ill will toward Revere, I'm just calling him out for what he is. A 1 1/2 tool player (speed, contact) who could fall on his face if he loses either one of those abilities because he literally has zero other redeeming qualities as a baseball player.

Why is contact half of a tool? That's a whole tool. Plus his defense is a tool, so he's a three tool player and yes, a lot of what he does with those three tools is contingent on his speed tool. It really hurts him that his power and arm tools are probably 2s.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hear ya... I actually agree with what you are saying to a point. I'm just hopeful that folks can enjoy the speed while it's here cuz it's fun to watch.

 

I also believe that Ben Revere is faster and a better hitter than Christian Guzman. If his speed declines... Let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

 

We have an army of young OF'ers coming up. If they out play Ben... Then they out play him. Right now... It's his time.

 

I have always said that if we had Corey Hart or Shin Soo Choo... I'd have Ben playing in Rochester. We don't.

I'm enjoying the hell out of Revere's play. I wouldn't even have entered this thread if not for Jack saying "it's time to call out the Revere doubters".

 

Half a season does not a career make, as Yoda would say.

 

There is a lot that can go wrong with a player like Revere and we shouldn't be crowning him the next Puckett just yet. That's all I'm trying to say.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why is contact half of a tool? That's a whole tool. Plus his defense is a tool, so he's a three tool player and yes, a lot of what he does with those three tools is contingent on his speed tool. It really hurts him that his power and arm tools are probably 2s.

Because the five tools of baseball are flawed. There is no accounting for plate discipline. Revere has the batting average. He does not have the discipline to go along with it that makes a decent hitter a good hitter and a good hitter a great hitter (see Mauer, Joe or Olerud, John for more information). Part of that is due to his lack of power. Part of it is due to his contact rate. But no matter the reasons, at the end of the day Revere is probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

 

How much more valuable would Revere be if he took a walk 10% of the time? He'd border on Rickey Henderson territory at that point (minus Rickey's power). He'd be a baseball star overnight. Yet the "five tools" don't factor that in at all.

[Kobs]

Dunn's power numbers were pretty decent for a guy who couldn't hit the ball.

[Connecticut Twins Fan]

Excellent analysis! Great use of swing and contact rates to put Revere's performance in proper context. Hopefully, someone shows this to Vavra!

[Turd Furgeson]

Because the five tools of baseball are flawed. There is no accounting for plate discipline. Revere has the batting average. He does not have the discipline to go along with it that makes a decent hitter a good hitter and a good hitter a great hitter (see Mauer, Joe or Olerud, John for more information). Part of that is due to his lack of power. Part of it is due to his contact rate. But no matter the reasons, at the end of the day Revere is probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

 

How much more valuable would Revere be if he took a walk 10% of the time? He'd border on Rickey Henderson territory at that point (minus Rickey's power). He'd be a baseball star overnight. Yet the "five tools" don't factor that in at all.

No one said the 5 tools account for everything. The 5 tools are mostly supposed to represent things that aren't learned. They are considered to be physical talents, for the most part. Taking walks and having a great eye at the plate is very important but doesn't really factor into the 5 tools. Revere is still a three tool player, funny enough two of those tools are probably 80s (run and glove) and his hit tool is probably close to an 80 as well. The fact that his power is a 20 is the biggest limiting factor.

 

You're right that he'd be a lot more valuable if he could walk at average rates, I'm not really sure what the secret is for him to do that. Maybe he's just too good at putting pitches in the zone in play.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Revere walks a finer line than that. He doesn't have to "lose speed", he only has to "lose a step". He doesn't have Denard's patience at the plate (not historically, anyway). He doesn't have Denard's gap-hitting power. He doesn't have Denard's arm, as unimpressive as it may be.

 

At the same time, Denard Span didn't have that gap power until he was 24. The problem with all the irrational Ben Revere hate is that it forgets that he still has time for improvement. He'll never hit for Josh Willingham power, but all it takes is Luis Castillo power to make pitchers stop grooving pitches to him every time he gets to ball three, which will push his OBP north and make him a legit all-star candidate in any given year. Revere isn't perfect. The arm is a problem. But at the same time, there's plenty to like. The range in the outfield makes Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter look like bad defenders. His bat control rivals Mauer and maybe even Rod Carew. He knows the strike zone very well and doesn't chase pitches. And then there's the speed on the basepaths. That's not two tools. That's three-plus tools. And while the lack of power hurts, the historical comp to Juan Pierre is off on one thing-- that Revere doesn't use the same O.J. Simpson-esq choke down on the bat that kills any power Pierre might have.

 

My advice would be unless you have some sort of Flux-capacitor equipped DeLorean and know for certain that Revere goes the next 1,500 plate appearances without a home run, lighten up, Francis. 99.9% of prospects come up with some sort of warts they need to work out, this includes every prospect currently in the Twins system including Sano. If we're going to ever witness a good Twins team again, we need to take the 1999 Twins approach and let them develop and not the 1996 Twins approach and harp on all of their flaws until we trade them off for fossils of former baseball players. Who knows? Two years from know you may feel the same way about Revere that you do about Span right now.

[Riverbrian]

I'd like to see some more walks but it makes little sense to wring your hands over his current BB%

 

To say that he is probably never going to be a great OBP guy. Is kinda like saying that the 2012 Twins Baseball Draft is a fail. He's 24 and way too soon to make that call.

 

10 walks in 236 at bats this year. 4.1%

 

League average is 8.1%

 

53 games played and he would need 9 more walks to reach 8.1%... That's 1 walk every 6 games. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to pull that off. He's 24 years old.

 

 

13 More Walks in 53 games and he reaches that 10% mark. That's one more walk every 4 games. That's not impossible for a guy that looks like Eddie Guedel.

 

It's too soon to be calling out the Anti Revere Crowd and it's too soon to be saying that the wheels are going to come off.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd like to see some more walks but it makes little sense to wring your hands over his current BB%

 

To say that he is probably never going to be a great OBP guy. Is kinda like saying that the 2012 Twins Baseball Draft is a fail. He's 24 and way too soon to make that call.

We have 1755 PAs in the minors that say he's probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

 

Note that I said "probably" and not "definitely". It's not impossible for a guy to suddenly figure out plate discipline in the majors but it is unlikely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My advice would be unless you have some sort of Flux-capacitor equipped DeLorean and know for certain that Revere goes the next 1,500 plate appearances without a home run, lighten up, Francis. 99.9% of prospects come up with some sort of warts they need to work out, this includes every prospect currently in the Twins system including Sano. If we're going to ever witness a good Twins team again, we need to take the 1999 Twins approach and let them develop and not the 1996 Twins approach and harp on all of their flaws until we trade them off for fossils of former baseball players. Who knows? Two years from know you may feel the same way about Revere that you do about Span right now.

Okay, swell. I don't know what this has to do with my argument or anything at all, but okay.

 

I've said multiple times that Revere's play has given the Twins flexibility to trade Span. Obviously, I'm not that down on the guy. Or down on him at all, really... for the billionth time, I'm simply saying that fans need to temper their expectations of speedy, high BABIP players because they tend to fall off a cliff often and very dramatically.

[FrodaddyG]

Revere's walk% by year:

 

6.01

7.21

7.73

7.79

5.41 (5.77 in MLB)

4.15 (4.23 in MLB)

 

Overall he's at 6.29% career, and trending downward as he moves into the majors. AS Pig said, it isn't unheard of for a guy to figure it out, but he's at 2500 PAs as a professional, and he's not getting better in that department, he's getting worse. Hackers tend to stay hackers (See: Young, Delmon) but most of them are guys who can give the ball a ride once in a while and aren't just praying that another grounder finds a hole every time they're at the plate.

 

I hope Revere succeeds because it helps the Twins, but I'm still hoping that they can eventually (and sooner than later) piece together an outfield with guys whose entire offensive game isn't predicated on flurries of singles and nothing else. That said, I'm nowhere near delusional enough to believe things like "Revere could have a chance to be an All-Star every year", which are just flat-out idiotic. The guy is a nice piece, but if he's anywhere near the Twins' best player in any given year, that will be a historically terrible Twins team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No one said the 5 tools account for everything. The 5 tools are mostly supposed to represent things that aren't learned. They are considered to be physical talents, for the most part. Taking walks and having a great eye at the plate is very important but doesn't really factor into the 5 tools. Revere is still a three tool player, funny enough two of those tools are probably 80s (run and glove) and his hit tool is probably close to an 80 as well. The fact that his power is a 20 is the biggest limiting factor.

If the five tools are based purely on ability, there should only be three tools. Hitting, speed, and power. Defense is a learned skill that has a lot of overlap with speed and arm strength. If we're basing things on pure physicality, there is no reason to have defensive ability, speed, and arm listed as three different tools.

 

Plate discipline isn't a "tool" because very few understood the importance of plate discipline before 1990.

[Turd Furgeson]

If the five tools are based purely on ability, there should only be three tools. Hitting, speed, and power. Defense is a learned skill that has a lot of overlap with speed and arm strength. If we're basing things on pure physicality, there is no reason to have defensive ability, speed, and arm listed as three different tools.

 

Plate discipline isn't a "tool" because very few understood the importance of plate discipline before 1990.

What about arm? Not everyone who has hitting power has throwing power. Also, glove is the only one that's a bit different. It relates to the raw athletic traits a guy has that could make him a good defender at a specific position.

 

That's not why plate discpline isn't a tool, and I don't think what you're saying is entirely accurate. Plate discipline isn't a physical ability. It's important to developing a good hitter, but it isn't a tool.