Rebuilding using the Twins way

[old nurse]

Considering the Twins past wishing they would sign an ace pitcher is at best wishful thinking. In the past they have reclaimed a couple of starting pitchers who had a few down years. Morris had a couple bad years before the Twins took him on. Pavano and Blyleven fit this mode, too. Are there any pitchers out there that the Twins can trade spare parts for that fit this mode.

The Twins have traded spare parts and received Mayes and Loshe. Valencia, Carrol and Casilla fit the parts that the Twins in the past have turned into viable starters. One could hope that Ryan turns his eye again.

There really are no Twins in their fifth year of service that the Twins can trade for building blocks of the future. The Twins are kind of hamstrung by the trades or lack thereof by Bill Smith. Nothing came of the Santana trade. Cuddyer, Kubel and Hunter were not traded. In the past Ryan traded these players for building blocks of the future. This did not happen with Smith. Time will tell with the draft picks. Unfortunately the Twins have had better luck with the trades than their draft.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Part of the problem is that those were different markets. When Ryan dumped Milton and Lohse, it was at a time where prospects were not nearly as valued as they are today. I doubt you'll see a Casilla for something decent trade. I do think that the Twins could trade Span (and potentially Willingham if they want to blow up the team) and get back some nice propsects, but beyond that, I don't see us restocking the farm system through trading...

 

As for drafts, say what you want about Bill Smith, but the 2010 and 2011 drafts/international signings under his watch were not nearly as bad as Ryan... There is upside to them, and performance. Part of this mess is without a doubt the fact that Ryan had a couple of really bad drafts prior to his departure.... that one isn't on Smith, it just made it harder to work with things.

[old nurse]

Saw someone's reference to Therlos's history of Ryan. I found it and looked at it. Ryan would appear to be a better judge of minor league talent than drafting. Smith would be a better at drafting than trading. It is still too soon to tell if Smith drafted well, but there is hope at the aa and lower levels.

[kab21]

I'm not sure that I really understand what rebuilding the Twins way is. They have never had to rebuild unless you count the nearly decade long cellar dwelling as rebuilding. Before that was a completely different baseball economy.

 

What the Twins should be doing is stocking their minor leagues with as much talent as possible and focusing on 2014/2015. Imo they really need to focus their efforts farther out than trying to be respectable in 2013. They are going to be bad and I don't want to endure a really long rebuilding effort.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Actually, I think they can do both - be respectable next year and restock the minor leagues. The last month has shown that the lineup is basically solid - some room for improvement, but then there always is. One or two decent starters acquired in FA, a return to form of one or two injured/slumping starters we have now, and we could challenge for the division next year, and still focus on acquiring younger talent.

[minn55441]

Actually, I think they can do both - be respectable next year and restock the minor leagues. The last month has shown that the lineup is basically solid - some room for improvement, but then there always is. One or two decent starters acquired in FA, a return to form of one or two injured/slumping starters we have now, and we could challenge for the division next year, and still focus on acquiring younger talent.

 

I agree. Our lineup is currently competitive and as Plouffe, Dozier and Revere improve with more big league playing time this could be an above average every day lineup in 2013.

 

The real question is how long will it take to improve our pitching. With Diamond as our only reliable starter, where do the other 4 come from? (2)Resign Liriano or trade him for another legitimate starter? (3)Come up with one other starter from PJ Walters, Cole Devires, Kyle Gibson,Liam Hendricks, throw in anyone else currently in our minor league system that has a shot into the mix. That leaves two open starting spots. I really believe that Terry Ryan will come up with enough spare parts to trade for a potential 4th or 5th starter. Whether it happens at the trade deadline or in the off season it really doesn't matter. He needs to find a 170 to 200 innings per year guy with an under 5 ERA.

 

The last spot will have to be a FA signing. I am a firm believer that this is the the new Twins, with a new economic system that they are working within. The Pohlads have seen what can happen when you have a winner in a new park (2010) and the revenue it can generate. they have also seen what can happen when the team starts to lose and remain uncompetitive for a year or more. Season ticket renewal notices are going out in August of this year. The drop off in the season ticket base was nothing last year compared to what will happen when they send them out in August of 2012. The team will be in last place or close to it and for the most part Target Field will be half full for the remainder of the season. This will send a message. With the money freed up from Baker, Pavano, Marquis and maybe Liriano if he is traded, the Twins can pick up one Major free agent pitcher. It may not be Hammels, Greinke or Shields, but I do expect a $15 plus starter to be signed. If this happens, I think the Twins could be competitive in 2013. Will they win the central division? They will have a shot if Terry picks up enough pitching to compliment this everyday lineup.

[jokin]

I agree. Our lineup is currently competitive and as Plouffe, Dozier and Revere improve with more big league playing time this could be an above average every day lineup in 2013.

 

The real question is how long will it take to improve our pitching. With Diamond as our only reliable starter, where do the other 4 come from? (2)Resign Liriano or trade him for another legitimate starter? (3)Come up with one other starter from PJ Walters, Cole Devires, Kyle Gibson,Liam Hendricks, throw in anyone else currently in our minor league system that has a shot into the mix. That leaves two open starting spots. I really believe that Terry Ryan will come up with enough spare parts to trade for a potential 4th or 5th starter. Whether it happens at the trade deadline or in the off season it really doesn't matter. He needs to find a 170 to 200 innings per year guy with an under 5 ERA.

 

The last spot will have to be a FA signing. I am a firm believer that this is the the new Twins, with a new economic system that they are working within. The Pohlads have seen what can happen when you have a winner in a new park (2010) and the revenue it can generate. they have also seen what can happen when the team starts to lose and remain uncompetitive for a year or more. Season ticket renewal notices are going out in August of this year. The drop off in the season ticket base was nothing last year compared to what will happen when they send them out in August of 2012. The team will be in last place or close to it and for the most part Target Field will be half full for the remainder of the season. This will send a message. With the money freed up from Baker, Pavano, Marquis and maybe Liriano if he is traded, the Twins can pick up one Major free agent pitcher. It may not be Hammels, Greinke or Shields, but I do expect a $15 plus starter to be signed. If this happens, I think the Twins could be competitive in 2013. Will they win the central division? They will have a shot if Terry picks up enough pitching to compliment this everyday lineup.

You left out the fact that they are stuck with Blackburn for another year. I like how Walters and DeVries battle, but there is virtually no upside there. Gibson is a question mark on when/if he regains his form and Hendriks has a major mental barrier left to hurdle in becoming a reliable big-league starter. Wimmers also should be in that Gibson category. Greinke's makeup, personality and Midwest pitching roots begs for the Twins to make him the right type of "pitch" and $$$ offer to finish his career in Minnesota. To help convince Greinke that you're serious about winning now, you must add in one or two more FA SPs on shorter term deals and then you have yourself a competitive ballclub. Unfortunately, this might mean biting the bullet and shedding most of the rest of the dead weight existing contracts, up to, and possibly including, Morneau. I see a SP corps of Greinke/Diamond/One of the Above/FA #2/FA #3 or another One of the Above

[Jim H]

This is an interesting topic. I believe that the Twins will almost certainly make a play for a major free agent pitcher this winter. It seems likely that they will be able to fit a large sum of money for pitching into the budget for 2013. The problem of course is that a Grienke or Hamels is going to require a large sum of money annually for at least 4 or 5 years. Ryan will have to consider whether such a move will make it impossible to keep guys like Morneau or Span(assuming you want/need to). I believe the Twins may go after a top of the line free agent pitcher IF they believe the farm system can/will fill the gaps that will appear over the next few years.

 

It is also likely that Ryan will/may look to trade spare parts like Valencia, Casilla, and others at the trading deadline. While this is likely a good idea, any return is unlikely to provide much if any immediate help. When Mays, Lohse, Ortiz and others were acquired, it took years for these guys to get to the majors. Then once they were there, it often took years for them to be more than replacement level.