How Many Lookouts Have a MLB Future?

[drjim]

 

I didn't say he was ready to be a full-time big leaguer, just that I think he'll get a September call-up.

 

The other thing is the Twins rarely call up a young guy unless he is going to play, just seems there are too many OF/1B guys (Vargas/Arcia/Buxton/Sano all seem likely to get the call up before) between him and the majors to get a taste - unless he really keeps hitting and/or there are several injuries.

 

I also agree on the BB/K analysis. I am hesitant to scout stat lines too much, but does seem like a profile that could struggle in the majors. Don't get the rush, still seems like midseason next year is more realistic if not even a little aggressive.

[h2oface]

 

I haven't watched him play, but statistically Kepler does not look ready for a call-up this year. His OPS is great of course due to his very high batting average, but his approach at the plate won't work - he is putting almost everything thrown at him in play.

 

MLB pitchers will exploit that and get him to make poor contact against hard-to-hit pitches. His BABIP is also somewhat unsustainable.

 

Right now I would expect him to hit .250 with no walks or power, which would be pretty bad for a corner outfielder. 

I don't think you can predict the wild card hitter. Puckett was a hitter that could put balls into play and make pitches that others would take for balls become RBI. I think Mauer misses the opportunity of cranking so many "mistake" pitches because he is just working the count. But to be able to put balls in play and for hits is a special talent. If and when it stops working, then adjustments can be made, but there is nothing wrong with a single that can move a baserunner more than one base even it was a ball instead of a strike. Dozier hits many high balls for homeruns. Sure, he misses some, too, and looks a bit foolish at times, especially in close games when he swings and misses at ball four with men on base and the game winding down. Too many good players have looked way better in the Majors than they did in the Minors for me to predict the future of improving performance regressing to their career minor league (or major league) norm. 

[Thrylos]

I don't get the luck of love for Michael.  Has anyone looked what he has been doing the past 2 years, after he switched to 2B from SS?  .862 OPS in Chattanooga after .803 OPS in New Britain for a middle infielder, is not negligible.  Steve Tolleson made the majors (and he is a pretty good comparable for Michael's floor.)  I see no way other than injury that Michael does not make it.

[Thrylos]

 

I will just rank my top 5 by confidence level.

 

1. Buxton. Elite defense and speed alone would set a floor as an every day CF.  Those are skills he will have for the next 6-8 years.  He has to be near a lock.

 

2. Sano.  His bat will force a spot on this team.

 

3. Polanco.  The position is so thin around the league. He can play SS and has done nothing but hit, steals bases too.  I think he edges out Santana.

 

4. Berrios.  Has good enough stuff to crack the top five starters. No doubt a reliever if that failed.  I think he is a #2.

 

5. Burdi - His stuff is too good.  Will play in the MLB for some time.

 

Wrong ranking
 

Polanco has an 100% probability of making the majors.  He already did.

[jokin]

 

The only way to avoid both walks and strikeouts is to put the ball in play early in the count. That means he is not being patient. 

 

.

 

You don't need to be patient at this level if you're getting a good pitch to hit early in the count.  At least that's what I observed about Kepler when I saw him play.

[drivlikejehu]

 

You don't need to be patient at this level if you're getting a good pitch to hit early in the count.  At least that's what I observed about Kepler when I saw him play.

 

No you don't, and I think Kepler can continue to succeed at AA without really changing that. But it's probably a good idea not to get into bad habits.

[drjim]

 

No you don't, and I think Kepler can continue to succeed at AA without really changing that. But it's probably a good idea not to get into bad habits.

 

And the good news is that he has plenty of time to work on it and make sure that he doesn't.

 

Because of his background he has always been my personal favorite prospect, great to see him start to put it together. Still has a huge ceiling too.

[jokin]

 

No you don't, and I think Kepler can continue to succeed at AA without really changing that. But it's probably a good idea not to get into bad habits.

 

Agreed.  First priority for him is to stay healthy all season.  After that, a Futures Game slot for the World Team... and then, it would be nice if he gets the opportunity to expand his horizons come September with a call-up..

[jokin]

 

And the good news is that he has plenty of time to work on it and make sure that he doesn't.

 

Because of his background he has always been my personal favorite prospect, great to see him start to put it together. Still has a huge ceiling too.

 

I was very impressed by the smoothness of his swing, and it looks like he could add additional power down the road. He really looked like he's seeing the ball exceptionally well- And that was confirmed when I looked up his LD%-  this year it's 23.8%, vs. ~15% for the rest of his minor league career.  Big breakout year for Kepler to be sure.