Taylor Rogers -- 2015

[Shane Wahl]

Taylor Rogers
DOB: 12-17-90 in Littleton, Colorado
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 180
Position: SP
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Acquired: Drafted by Twins in 11th round of 2012 draft out of University of Kentucky

2014 statistics (NBR):

 

145 IP, 3.29 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 (113/37), 1.290 WHIP

 

2015 statistics (ROC):

 

38 IP, 2.84 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 (33/15), 1.289 WHIP

 

Rogers was a pitcher that I was skeptical of after his 2013 season when his strikeouts declined in Fort Myers and his velocity was still just around 90 mph. Ever since he has been striking out a good rate of batters (not his pre 2013 numbers, but still good) and his velocity has climbed to 93-95 with the fastball. He looks to be a promising starter if that is the direction the Twins go with him. He also could be a dominant lefty setup man down the road. 

 

2015 prediction:

Rogers might get a call up to the Twins this year. He isn't on the 40 man yet, but that really isn't an issue for September this year. I think he will continue to be very good: 180 IP, 3.05 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.270 WHIP

[Shane Wahl]

Taylor was smacked around some in his start this week, giving up five earned in five innings. He threw 101 pitches in those five innings.

 

In 43 IP, 3.56 ERA, 40 strikeouts, 18 walks, and a 1.395 WHIP. 

 

He is due for another strong 7+ inning performance in his next start.

[Shane Wahl]

In the past three starts for Rochester:

 

19 IP, six earned runs, seven strikeouts, and two walks.

 

1.323 WHIP and 3.34 ERA for the season. 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, mostly in line with his career numbers there.

[Shane Wahl]

Rogers went eight innings in his June 4 start. He gave up just one run on six hits, striking out three and walking one.

 

He has failed to go six innings only twice this year.

[Shane Wahl]

Rogers got hit a bit in his June 9th start, but then turned in a gem on the 14th, going eight innings, allowing one run, and striking out 8. Rogers is basically repeating the same numbers at AAA in 2015 as he did in AA in 2014. This is an encouraging sign, as there are some differences between the two levels, and yet those types of players are the ones he will eventually face in the big leagues.

[Shane Wahl]

Rogers went 6.1 innings in each of his last three starts. This season he had one four inning, one five inning, and one 5.2 inning start, otherwise going six or more innings in the 14 other starts.

 

He is ready for The Show.

 

Now, what his role will be immediately is likely as a lefty reliever, because A: the Twins don't have many good ones at all on the big league club or in the upper minors, and B: Rogers is holding lefties to a .383 OPS this season.

 

He is, without a doubt, the best lefty up in the upper minors right now, and given the fact that Ryan O'Rourke didn't emerge this year after a strong 2014 against lefties, the door is wide open. If the Twins are serious about the playoffs this year, they are going to need to go into them with a dominant lefty with Perkins out of the bullpen. The long-term has Rogers remaining a starter in 2016, so the Twins are going to want to keep his innings up this year. Personally, I would give him four more AAA starts and then call him up to the Twins bullpen. He could immediately get a long relief stint in and then work his way in to MR lefty situations. He could still top 150 innings while being quite useful for a contending team.

 

If the Twins falls off the face of the earth out of contention, then I would wait on the call longer, probably in September.

[drjim]

Very reasonable plan with Rogers. I agree that keeping total innings up is important.

[Shane Wahl]

Some rough patches in the past three starts, but that will happen. I imagine that the Twins have no desire to convert him this year. By mid-August he should be at about 150 innings, though. Subsequent relief work would make sense . . .

[Shane Wahl]

Rogers has been getting hit pretty hard of late. I would imagine that some fatigue is coming into play as he has now topped his highest innings total for a season at 145.1. Two more starts and then a call to the Twins 'pen? In my world, I would try that out, but I bet it doesn't happen.

[Shane Wahl]

After a big drop in strikeouts, Rogers fanned 9 in his last start, which lasted 6.2 innings. He also gave up four runs. With Neal Cotts being signed to the Twins, the nail in the 2015 coffin was hammered in for Rogers' chances of debuting.

 

Rogers will be returning to AAA and should be considered the top option to join the team in 2016 if there is an injury.

[Mike Sixel]

 

After a big drop in strikeouts, Rogers fanned 9 in his last start, which lasted 6.2 innings. He also gave up four runs. With Neal Cotts being signed to the Twins, the nail in the 2015 coffin was hammered in for Rogers' chances of debuting.

 

Rogers will be returning to AAA and should be considered the top option to join the team in 2016 if there is an injury.

 

After Berrios for next year, agreed. His debut as a RP is not happening this year for sure.

[Shane Wahl]

Prediction:

 

"I think he will continue to be very good: 180 IP, 3.05 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.270 WHIP"

 

Reality:

 

174 IP, 3.98 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.345 WHIP

 

Rogers had a rough second half of July and never got back on track. These are still respectable numbers, however. The Twins are sending him to the AFL, which seems weird given the workload already this year. I don't really understand it. Unless they are sending him to get some bullpen innings.

 

Speaking of, the bullpen still might be where he ends up, but that isn't going to happen for awhile in 2016. The depth for the Twins is there: Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Milone, Berrios, and Duffey are all ahead of him, but a couple of those guys could be traded or sent to the bullpen in 2016.

 

2016 forecast: Rogers sees The Show in 2016. This might come late in the year as a reliever, depending on how the team is doing. I would look for solid improvement in AAA until that time.