2015 Blueprint by Lonestar

[Lonestar]

My goal is to field a competitive, sustainable, projectable team.  Like everyone else, I want to improve pitching and defense.  Unlike almost everyone else, I start Danny Santana in centerfield and Alex Meyer in Rochester.  Don’t you want to know why?

 

In a small sample size, Santana is a better SS than CF and I suspect that SS is his future (after Buxton comes up).  But [1] Escobar is a better SS than Santana; Santana figures to improve after less than 1 year in CF; [2] Santana is a better CF and better hitter than Schafer; and [3] the price for Bourjos figures to be more than I want to pay.  In other words, I am betting that Santana’s advantages are worth a year’s development at SS, even for a team that is likely 1 year away from seriously contending for the playoffs.

 

I would keep Meyer in AAA until I delay free agency (not necessarily arbitration) 1 year.  And I do my best to sign two starting pitchers better than Meyer and May are expected to be 2015.

 

Sign Brandon McCarthy (3yr/$42M with $20M team option and $1M buyout)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brandon-mccarthy-as-a-value/
Why McCarthy? He pitched 200 innings for first time.  He added 2 MPH.  There’s no compensation pick attached.  It’s only 3 years and $42M.  He makes Nolasco and Milone more available.

 

Back-up plan:  Offer Liriano 3/$36 with $18M team option and $1M buyout.

 

Back-up back-up plan:  Offer Justin Masterson 1/$9.5M + incentives with team option if he passes a rigorous physical (perhaps more rigorous than the CBA will allow)

 

Sign Brett Anderson (1/$7.5M with $2M incentives, $15M team option and $600K buyout)
Why? If/When healthy, Anderson is better than May or Meyer.
Twins offer a clear path to slot in rotation and $8.1M guaranteed.
Twins get possible second year of team control and negotiating leverage to extend.
If Anderson is ready to go, May and Meyer can start the season in the bullpen or in Rochester.

 

Back-up plan: Insert May.  Meyer stays in Rochester until he delays free agency 1 year.

 

Sign Luke Hochevar (1/$3.5M)
Before there was Wade Davis, there was Luke Hochevar.
If he regains form, Twins can flip him. Or retain him if Perkins falters.

 

Back-up plan: Add one of May/Tonkin/Oliveros.

 

Pass on Melky Cabrera (3/$39), Colby Rasmus (3/$36M), Alex Rios (2/$18M), Emilio Bonifacio (2/$12M).  Years and total value are guesstimates by David Cameron.  Absolutely pass on Torii Hunter at 2/$18M+ [or even 1/$8M or 1/$5M or 1/$.5M].
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-free-agent-predictions/

I changed my mind and would sign Aoki for 3/$24 if necessary, thinking I can trade him in a year or two. I like his OBP and defense.  I would prefer 2/$18M

 

On 21 August, I said I would sign Melky for 3/$39M.  What changed?
I’m spending more on pitching than I was thinking back then.
David Cameron said he wouldn’t sign Cabrera for the expected 3/$39M.

 

Back-up plan: Rios, if he will sign for 1/$10M but that would likely be in February.
I would pass on Rasmus even on a one-year deal because he wants to be CF. Signing him would still leave a hole in LF.  He is a doofus (at best) and an OBP hole.

 

Sign Chris Denorfia (1/$2.5M) for platoon possibilities.

 

If I haven’t signed Aoki or Rios by the time the music stops, I would trade for Andrew Lambo and platoon him with Denorfia.

 

Sign Dean Anna (1/$550K).  I love his versatility at SS/2B/3B/LF/RF.  Makes Escobar available in trade.  Makes Santana available for CF or LF or AAA if he falters.  Possible platoon partner for Denorfia.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-best-signing-of-the-offseason-so-far-by-the-projections/

 

Trade Tommy Milone for something.  He’s not a LOOGY.  If I stashed him in AAA (where he was disgruntled last year), would I have to pay his arb salary?  I see trading him after the music stops/before 25-man rosters are set. 

 

If available, draft Jarlin Garcia in the Rule 5 draft.

 

Who’s added to the 40 man roster beside the 6 free agents named above?
Buxton, Meyer, and Sano, of course.  And Wheeler, Sean Gilmartin, and Levi Michael.  And Deibonson Romero.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-minor-league-free-agents-by-the-projections/

 

Who’s gone?
Swarzak, Duensing, Thielbar, Thompson, Fryer, Colabello, Nunez, Parmelee and Milone

That’s 39 players on the 40-man roster, unless the Milone trade nets someone to be added or if Garcia is drafted.

 

Rotation: Hughes, McCarthy, Gibson, Nolasco, Anderson

 

Bullpen: Perkins, Fien, Hochevar, Darnell or Gilmartin or NRI/Rule 5 for LOOGY, Pelfrey (ridden like a rented mule), May, one of Tonkin/Oliveros/Meyer (after 1 month).

 

A 7-man bullpen is an improvement over Gardy’s 8-man pen.
Only one LOOGY is an improvement over two pseudo-quasi LOOGY’s.
Four RP’s willing and able to go multiple innings
Three RP’s capable of hitting 97+ MPH

 

Starting lineup: Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Aoki, Santana, Arcia, Vargas

 

Bench: Pinto, Anna, Schafer, Denorfia

 

Total Payroll = $107,825,000
That’s consistent with what Pohlad has said and only 96% of what payroll was in four (4) years ago — 2011.  If I miss on Anderson and Hochevar, payroll would be less than $97,375,000.  Hopefully Nolasco regains his value so he can be flipped.  Twins should still be in a position to extend Hughes as well as Dozier and Plouffe if they want to do so.

 

Estimated Time of Arrival
Meyer — May 2015
Buxton — September 2015
Sano — September 2015
Rosario — September 2015
Berrios — May-September 2016

 

Question: If I am going to spend $30,000,000 more than current commitments, why not sign Scherzer or Lester?

Answer: Besides too much money for too many years for those two, I can get McCarthy and Anderson and Hochevar for the same price.

[ALessKosherScott]

Question: If I am going to spend $30,000,000 more than current commitments, why not sign Scherzer or Lester?

Answer: Besides too much money for too many years for those two, I can get McCarthy and Anderson and Hochevar for the same price.

 

I think it comes more down to why would you want to repeatedly pay Scherzer or Lester $30 million a year through the heart of their decline phase?

 

 

 

 

 

I would pass on Rasmus even on a one-year deal because he wants to be CF. Signing him would still leave a hole in LF. 

 

I think Rasmus would be unquestionably my first offseason move if the team still played in the Metrodome. Saying you're going to fix the outfield defense by signing a left fielder is akin to saying you're going to fix a leaky dam with chewing gum. Even if you bring in the best defensive left fielder ever, there will be a less of an impact. At the same time, Santana more culpable for the Twins bad outfield D than anyone last year by volume of plays he was involved with.

 

Rasmus could play center and slide Santana to left until Buxton is ready, at which point you have the discussion of do you go forward with Santana or Rasmus in left. Rasmus' flaw is your bringing in a Plouffian hitter whose offensive value is entirely dependent on extra base hits. But Rasmus bats left and Target Field notoriously has killed lefty power. Is there a right-handed Rasmus out there who can be had in trade?

 

The more interesting question is if you don't find a real centerfielder this offseason, do you consider trading Hughes for a king's ransom rather than playing the game of how far to the mean will he regress in 2015?

[Lonestar]

Rasmus could play center and slide Santana to left until Buxton is ready, at which point you have the discussion of do you go forward with Santana or Rasmus in left. Rasmus' flaw is your bringing in a Plouffian hitter whose offensive value is entirely dependent on extra base hits. But Rasmus bats left and Target Field notoriously has killed lefty power. Is there a right-handed Rasmus out there who can be had in trade?

 

Target Field might keep Rasmus from signing with the Twins.  The Twins do play half of their games away from Target Field and many of those favor LHB's.

 

A right-handed Rasmus on a three-year deal makes me think of BJ Upton. 

 

The more interesting question is if you don't find a real centerfielder this offseason, do you consider trading Hughes for a king's ransom rather than playing the game of how far to the mean will he regress in 2015?

 

You do believe in selling high.  Certainly Hughes' BB% and HR/FB figure to regress. Hopefully his BABIP regresses also, but some part of that is dependent on improving defense in CF. And LF. And maybe RF (moving Arcia to DH).

 

Even with regression, I like Hughes.  He is relatively young, cheap, above average, and possible to extend.  I think I can get the same years for about the same money as I would give McCarthy.

 

I would want to know what the king's ransom could be.  What do you think?

 

What is your back-up plan for CF?

 

What do you think of Bourjos?  What do you think it would take?

 

[ALessKosherScott]

A right-handed Rasmus on a three-year deal makes me think of BJ Upton...What is your back-up plan for CF?

What do you think of Bourjos?  What do you think it would take?

In a perfect world, Desmond Jennings. But the Rays asking price may be too rich for my blood. Austin Jackson has some bounce back potential. Upton is a little too big of a contract for my tastes, but it's the right idea. I still have some hope for Aaron Hicks too.

 

Bourjos strikes me as a more athletic Fuld. I'd probably give a 10-20 prospect. But he doesn't strike me as the starting left fielder in 2016, and that's more what I'd want.

 

 

I would want to know what the king's ransom could be.  What do you think?

 

Something resembling either one of the two Dan Haren hauls.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The more interesting question is if you don't find a real centerfielder this offseason, do you consider trading Hughes for a king's ransom rather than playing the game of how far to the mean will he regress in 2015?

If the Twins had anything better than the worst rotation of the past three years, it'd be an interesting gamble... But right now, I think you have to hold on to Hughes because he's the only thing resembling a decent pitcher in the starting staff.

 

Will Hughes regress in 2015? Almost certainly... But given the environment, I think he may actually be worth more after the 2015 season if he posts anything resembling a 110 ERA+ again, which I think he will. Front offices will respect the numbers a lot more if he posts two good consecutive seasons.

[ALessKosherScott]

If the Twins had anything better than the worst rotation of the past three years, it'd be an interesting gamble... But right now, I think you have to hold on to Hughes because he's the only thing resembling a decent pitcher in the starting staff.

 

Will Hughes regress in 2015? Almost certainly... But given the environment, I think he may actually be worth more after the 2015 season if he posts anything resembling a 110 ERA+ again, which I think he will. Front offices will respect the numbers a lot more if he posts two good consecutive seasons.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with this in a current world. But in this version of the world where the Twins sign Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, it might be an interesting concept to rearrange the staff to be more ground ball oriented rotation where you could suddenly live with Arcia and Santana's defensive lapses a little more. A rotation of something like McCarthy, Anderson, Gibson, Meyer, Pelfrey/Nolasco if there are no takers suddenly plays into the strengths of the Twins defense instead of playing into the weakness. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't necessarily disagree with this in a current world. But in this version of the world where the Twins sign Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, it might be an interesting concept to rearrange the staff to be more ground ball oriented rotation where you could suddenly live with Arcia and Santana's defensive lapses a little more. A rotation of something like McCarthy, Anderson, Gibson, Meyer, Pelfrey/Nolasco if there are no takers suddenly plays into the strengths of the Twins defense instead of playing into the weakness. 

I'd prefer the Twins shore up their OF defense and play to some of TF's strengths but this would be an acceptable alternative... I think we can both agree that they're taking the worst route possible by riding the fence and not picking a side.

 

Either fix the OF defense or go find pitchers who will make the most use of your good IF defense.

[Lonestar]

I'd prefer the Twins shore up their OF defense and play to some of TF's strengths but this would be an acceptable alternative... I think we can both agree that they're taking the worst route possible by riding the fence and not picking a side.

 

Either fix the OF defense or go find pitchers who will make the most use of your good IF defense.

Why not do both?  It's interesting to see how the Twins have gone from three CF's in the outfield (sort of, kind of) to none. Actually last year, it was more like 1 OF, 1 IF, and 1 DH in the outfield.

 

I wonder what kind of defensive SS Danny Santana will become.  Or what Sano will do to the defense at 3B or OF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why not do both?  It's interesting to see how the Twins have gone from three CF's in the outfield (sort of, kind of) to none. Actually last year, it was more like 1 OF, 1 IF, and 1 DH in the outfield.

 

I wonder what kind of defensive SS Danny Santana will become.  Or what Sano will do to the defense at 3B or OF.

I prefer the former because of your second paragraph.

 

The Twins have a mid-term fix for the OF defense problem in Rosario, Buxton, and possibly Hicks while the infield has a potential mid-term issue in Santana, Sano, and the aging Joe Mauer. It's very possible - maybe even likely - that the outfield defense becomes a team strength by 2016 while the infield defense becomes a liability at the same time.

[Mike Sixel]

Other than the Santana decision, this might be close to what TR does with the pitching. Hunter instead of Aoki, in hindsight....