Qualifying Offer to be $15.3 Million

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I agree with all of that except for the last bit  - some players might get the QO like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales did last year. I believe there will be a couple fringe guys that get the offer. There have been the last two seasons, I have no reason to think that will change.

 

I agree that Cuddyer is probably not one of those guys, Colorado is rebuilding and shouldn't be looking to spend 15MM on him for 2015. Maybe a player that is not exactly Cuddyer, playing for a team that has a little payroll space could get a QO. That's all I'm suggesting. It's not a totally free market, even for the stars, when the QO is involved, because teams will weigh the value of the player vs. losing a draft pick.

 

I think players this offseason are hoping they don't get a QO, and any team extending one is hoping that the player declines it.

[Linus]

I agree with all of that except for the last bit  - some players might get the QO like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales did last year. I believe there will be a couple fringe guys that get the offer. There have been the last two seasons, I have no reason to think that will change.

 

I agree that Cuddyer is probably not one of those guys, Colorado is rebuilding and shouldn't be looking to spend 15MM on him for 2015. Maybe a player that is not exactly Cuddyer, playing for a team that has a little payroll space could get a QO. That's all I'm suggesting. It's not a totally free market, even for the stars, when the QO is involved, because teams will weigh the value of the player vs. losing a draft pick.

 

I think players this offseason are hoping they don't get a QO, and any team extending one is hoping that the player declines it.

Sure, some guys might get it but as the QO continues to rise (15% increase just this year) the number of players receiving the offer will go down.  For example, I think it is reasonable to think that if the QO was $15million+ last year that neither Drew nor Morales would have received the offer.  Bottom line is this: under the new system, most free agents will be completely free which was not the case before when even a "type B" free agent had compensation tied to their signing.

 

As the QO gets steeper and steeper, it makes it much harder for clubs to risk extending the offer unless the player is an elite free agent.  Ergo, I think you will see relatively few players extended the QO going forward.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yes, I agree with that - less players will be offered the QO in the future.

[Thrylos]

I would add Cruz to that list.  He was a wild card last year as no one knew how he would perform after being off of PEDs.  I don't think he will accept the qualifying offer and I think a team would snatch him up perhaps his old team in Texas or the Yankees.  If the O's want him they need to do the right thing.

 

What exactly is the "right thing" when we are talking about a convicted PED guy?

[drjim]

What exactly is the "right thing" when we are talking about a convicted PED guy?

 

Have him serve his suspension and move on?

[kab21]

Yes, I agree with that - less players will be offered the QO in the future.

 

Less players were offered QO last year also.  This system is far better even for players like Cuddyer.  In the old system a guy like Cuddyer could have been offered arb.  At that point he could accept or decline.  If he accepted he might only get 10-12M in arb (less than the QO) and if he declined he would still have draft pick compensation.  The difference between now and then is that the names are a little bigger and teams are even more protective of their draft picks.  Before their were several players each year that resigned with their original teams on 1-2 yr contracts but they were lesser players.  I think the next CBA will eliminate this but to do so the MLBPA will have to agree to hard slotting and an int'l draft with hard slotting.  That's why they allowed this nonsense to continue in this CBA.

[Linus]

I think the owners should trade one more year of team control for complete free agency thereafter.  Its clearly possible to be successful without using free agency much or hardly at all.

[drjim]

I think the owners should trade one more year of team control for complete free agency thereafter. Its clearly possible to be successful without using free agency much or hardly at all.

I doubt the players do that. A much bigger problem is the super two and extra year of control manipulation. Just bad for the game. My thought was to have 6 years 45 days of control. Basically a free September callup in addition to 6 years.

 

Also, baseball could take a lesson from football for free agent compensation. Take the value of net players lost and give comp picks in supplementary rounds.