Should Twins Sign Dozier Long Term?

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Danny Santana may be trying out 2b at Rochester now that Eduardo Nunez is at AAA (he made his debut with the Red Wings at 3b). The Eddie Rosario experiment at 2b is postponed, but not necessarily cancelled. The Twins have lots of options regarding Dozier's service time--explained earlier in the thread. Let's see how this plays out over this summer. Maybe Dozier earns a long-term contract next spring? Maybe not.

[cmathewson]

Danny Santana may be trying out 2b at Rochester now that Eduardo Nunez is at AAA (he made his debut with the Red Wings at 3b). The Eddie Rosario experiment at 2b is postponed' date=' but not necessarily cancelled. The Twins have lots of options regarding Dozier's service time--explained earlier in the thread. Let's see how this plays out over this summer. Maybe Dozier earns a long-term contract next spring? Maybe not.[/quote']

 

This makes no sense. I refuse to believe that Nunez will get much playing time at short, pushing the "shortstop of the future" to second base. If they do this, they are capable of any stupid decision.

[stringer bell]

Dozier should have been the Twins' MVP for 2013. He is one of very few players on the Twins who is an asset in the field, on the bases and with a bat in his hands. He seems to be a really good guy and he likes playing here. I rank him as my favorite player on the current Twins team. That said, with the long period of team control in front of him and less than one year of good play behind him, now is not the time to extend him. The risks for the team would include injury and ineffectiveness, the reward would be if they signed him and then he "blew up" into an All-Star fixture. I do believe Dozier will continue to be a solid regular second baseman, but I doubt his improvement curve will put him in elite status.

 

On the player side, Dozier would be interested in an extension for an immediate (earned) large pay raise and security for the next several years. The risk to Dozier would be if he signed an extremely undervalued contract. Again, I doubt this will happen. If BD continued his improvement next offseason will be the time to extend him.

 

BTW, I think that projecting specific players into positions is risky and unwise. Even with top of the line prospects like Sano and Buxton, there has to be some caution. The guys that have been mentioned as possible replacements for Dozier at second aren't elite and there aren't any sure things.

[blairpaul715]

If he has a good year, I think this is in play for next offseason. He'll still be on team-set contract in 2015, meaning no real long term security. It will be the last time the Twins will have a lot of leverage and they could get a real bargain, even getting something like a 3 year deal with a couple of option years.

 

Maybe 1/2.5/4.5/7.5 option/9 option? That might be a little optimistic, but it seems something close to that could work.

 

I was just going over what I would do if Dozier had a good yr, and we were on the same wavelength: If he has a good yr this yr, my idea was to extend him with options thru his third FA yr........so my thinking was 1.9(first arb yr); 3.5; 5.0; and the 3 FA yrs team options of 7.0 ; 9.0 and 11.0. That would guarantee him 10.4 mil for 3 yrs, till age 31 and then Twins could decide if they wanted to use options yrs for age 32 thru 34.

[twinsfan34]

I am with much of the group that says...at LEAST 1-2 more seasons before I'd talk contract extension.

 

A few reasons:

 

One, 2B is arguably our deepest position in the minors. With Rosario, Polanco, and Goodrum we have 3 of our top 15 prospects (or wherever Goodrum lands on your prospect list). Rosario and Polanco are top 8 across most publications. Rosario was at AA...Polanco and Goodrum at A+...so in 2 years they'd 'expected' to push for a roster spot with the Twins.

 

Two, Dozier isn't a SS.

 

Three, the financial sense...as it appears his service time makes him a FA in 2019. He's not Andrelton Simmons or Evan Longoria or Mike Trout. These guys are arguably the top players at their positions. He doesn't fit the "if he hits FA he'll cost a ton" category.

 

What would Dozier attract in the FA market this past Winter? Any guesses? 4-5 year deal? $8-$10M per? Maybe that's too high even. He had only one semi solid season.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

This makes no sense. I refuse to believe that Nunez will get much playing time at short, pushing the "shortstop of the future" to second base. If they do this, they are capable of any stupid decision.

 

Santana played five games at second last year, and 32 games at the keystone in 2012. Perhaps I'm the "st****" one for not being more clear--Santana will get his cuts at short. But as the Twins consider replacing/platooning Eduardo Nunez with Florimon, they will want to see what Nunez can do at Rochester.

 

I also think it's inane (better than the S-word) to ink Santana in as the shortstop of the future without considering secondary options--no pun intended. There was a time when Dozier was the shortstop of the future too. Look how that one turned out. Maybe it was st**** to move him to second...

[cmathewson]

Santana played five games at second last year' date=' and 32 games at the keystone in 2012. Perhaps I'm the "st****" one for not being more clear--Santana will get his cuts at short. But as the Twins consider replacing/platooning Eduardo Nunez with Florimon, they will want to see what Nunez can do at Rochester.

 

I also think it's inane (better than the S-word) to ink Santana in as the shortstop of the future without considering secondary options--no pun intended. There was a time when Dozier was the shortstop of the future too. Look how that one turned out. Maybe it was st**** to move him to second...[/quote']

 

I have such disdain for Nunez's defense, I still can't imagine replacing either Florimon or Escobar with him. It boggles my mind. When Dick hinted that it was only a matter of time before Nunez replaces Florimon, I just about screamed. I could see it if he hit like Drew or something. But his offense is not that much better. I still think Nunez is here for depth and little else. If he starts taking reps away from Santana, I'll have issues with their decision making.

 

As for Santana, all indications are he has crazy tools. Dozier is a nice player with good skills, but he didn't have the range to be the long-term solution at short. He's the prototypical second baseman. And then there's Beresford, who's also a good second base option. Nunez is behind all those guys in my book.