Moneyball 2.0
Entry posted by Andy MacPhail in MIL Model ·
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Everybody who has watched Money Ball, should remember the brainstorming of targeting potential players they could afford. Each had their own idea who they should get. But GM Beane shocked them & vetoed them all with his candidates. What all his candidates had in common was that they were cheap & had high OBP, Analytical OBP revolutionized MLB forever. A cheap high OBP player could replace a more expensive high BA player & be more productive. Because it doesn't matter how you get on base as long as you get on base. But analytics have morphed since into HR focused stats. Most team focuses in how to hit more HRs & chase after expensive non-athletic sluggers. HRs are everything & OBP, hitting clutch, bunting, defense, pitching, intangibles, stealing & taking extra the base are irrelevant. Their idea of winning was to sign, draft & develop such players.
Contrary to many baseball fans philosophies, HRs do not equal wins, Looking at some MLB teams' HR/ game rankings- MIL is #29, CLE is # 27, TB #22, SD #15. MIL, who had the best MLB winning record was 2nd to the last in HR totals & many who didn't have good HR totals still made the postseason. MLB isn't a HR derby or HR favoring stats-based fantasy baseball, thank God. It's how you play the game. OBP, hitting clutch, bunting, defense, pitching, intangibles, stealing & taking extra the base are important! You still need scouts to evaluate the intangibles. But I say it doesn't matter how many HRs you hit, because it's easier to hit a bunch of HRs when it doesn't matter & strike out when it does; it matters more to be able to hit when it does matter, whether it's a HR or not. Which would you want an expensive poor defensive slugger that strikes out a lot when it matters or a cheap defensive contact player who hits when it does matter? Sadly, many prefer the prior.
NYY do very well in today's HR analytical mindset. If you hit a lot of HRs, you don't need to have good defense, baserunning, fundamentals, instincts, character & intangibles, and it doesn't matter if you strike out a lot. If they don't matter then you don't need scouts, good drafting, coach development & player evaluators who enforce these qualities, right? You can get by with just analytics. The focus was to sign the best FA slugger that money can buy. In '19, baseball was enamored with the "Bomba Squad" & it went to MN's head. The "big apple" HR mindset was then able to influence the "minnie apple" to adapt the same. IMO, MN has gone downhill since, making wrong decisions. NYY has dominated MN because they have become a cheap copy of them, NYY are a big market, we are not & NYY are not a great team. IMO, MN is starting to wake up & see the need to break away from this model. They need not only break away but also set a different model. I have advocated for years that MN needs to break away & adapt MIL as their new model.
Brewers are a small market that win; therefore, they never get high draft picks, yet they still come up with great players. How is that possible? That is a question that MN relevantly needed & still need to ask & come up with the answers. Here are some of my observations & what I think some the answers are. 1st, Brewers are the anti-thesis of the present analytical mindset. Analytics are important but I think that they're bias & don't tell the whole story, Brewers know that. They don't focus on big slow defense-deficient sluggers that become Scott Boras clients, They have a cheap athletic pure hitter model who they can easily extend. They also value heart, instinct & character & have scouts who scour nationally & internationally to find such players. They have coaches who see the qualities of each player & maximize those qualities while teaching them true fundamentals. Thus, producing many MLBer who can make an impact. those impact players, who they can't extend, they can trade for future impact players who can replace them. Why does MN bring up so many players that can't make a lasting impact? Why are there so many prospects who could be MLBers, aren't given proper opportunities?
With a superior player evaluation model, they can draft better & they can trade better too. To go along with that, when they can see a need, they proactively trade for that need instead of hoping & waiting for that trade to fall in their laps & so many times, settle for an inferior player. GM can delegate to others, drafting, players evaluation, development, coach selection, etc but IMO the most important role & obligation of a GM is proactively make trades. Managers are also very important; MIL has a very good manager. What are important characteristics for a great manager? Create good culture? good communications? good feel for the game? give & demand respect? have good philosophies? knows how to manage his pitchers, especially the BP? good instincts? good motivator? have an understanding of analytics? maybe, if he has assistants who do that, maybe not. Here are some that come to mind, maybe you have more.
Now shifting away from hitting to pitching. In the slugging mind set, high strikeouts aren't concerning. OK, so does that mean low strikeouts aren't concerning in pitching? No, in pitching, high strikeouts are everything but in hitting, it's not concerning? In this correlating slugging philosophy that defense isn't important, pitchers are forced to depend entirely on velo & their stuff to get outs via strikeouts. Because groundballs go through the INF like a sieve because the INFers can't field. Another reason to abolish this mindset is to have better defense, especially the INF, DPs & fielding grounders that usually become hits & runs help pitchers. Presently groundball (GB) pitchers are extinct, If a GB pitcher has slick fielding INFers backing them, they can flourish. Big SO pitchers are expensive to sign. soft GB pitchers are cheap. especially under this current popular mindset & normally are healthier. Throwing more GB producing pitches, give pitchers more options where they aren't so dependent on their velo & spin & also saves their arms.
Moneyball 2.0 is how to economize to compete outside the big market. To be productive with low-cost players who get on base (high OBP), hitters who drive them in especially in clutch situation; good scout to find them & good coaches to develop them with better defense & fundamentals. With better defensive INF, make cheap GB pitchers work & expand other pitchers' repertoires that save their arms. & GM & managers who buy into this. I want the Twins to be more like the Brewers & more, not the Yankees. What do you think?
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