Joe Pohlad On Twins Payroll Flexibility

Tom, it seems you believe that one of Monty, Belly, or Blake would push the Twins into World Series territory. You would have a large number of fans who might agree with you. I don't see these players as keys at all. Money is a real thing but I agree that $20-30 million plus years is not a good plan. A guy who would have likely paid a decent return is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 

There are always going to be disagreements about how to best construct a team and where and when to gamble on a big free agent signing and/or trade. The Twins made three significant gambles to an extent in signing Buxton, Correa, and Lopez to large contracts. I agreed with all of those. Many people were beside themselves with the Correa deal and now criticize it. De ja vu .... Joe Mauer, which was a brilliant signing.

An area where the Twins need to be as exact as is possible is in two areas where the financial figures do not interfere so much. Young players who look like they can produce need an opportunity. We have seen this with all of Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jeffers, Lewis, Julien, and Wallner. A couple of guys have suffered injuries and there can certainly be regression in the coming season. Now, it is a good time to use Varland, Alcala, and Martin. They have options but their contributions would surpass the players set in front of them.

The other area is to improve the team through trades. Sometimes those trades hurt. If you recall, the Mahle trade was highly praised on Twins Daily while the Arraez - Lopez was widely panned. Luis was a crowd favorite. For me the offseason went off the rails with the Polanco trade. I expected Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer to be traded, but Polanco for sure. My disagreement was in the return. If you want to make a dramatic improvement to the top of the rotation, it is going to hurt. Falvey wasn't willing to pull the trigger and wound up making a deal under a deadline to reduce the payroll. Maybe the team is better down the road because of the low A ball guys but the team is worse right now. 

There are so many ways to approach improving the team. I won't get into any more arguments/discussions on the how/who but moving a top player, a few veterans for younger, talented, controllable players is difficult but the best path. I would say Milwaukee and Baltimore  made a good trade. The Twins folded too soon or were too hesitant to trade a fan favorite. That was the key to the season. I think perhaps something could happen at the trade deadline but it is more or less up to the team to perform. 

Typical Twins bs.  Yes the Mauer signing was great.  Correa not so much.  Buxton?  A big waste of money.  To me the problem in part is where to allocate those dollars available for payroll.  Paying Correa and Buxton 50 million per season on a reduced payroll to it'd current 124 million is ridiculous.  Buxton has been an over hyped failure for 8 years.  Correa has been good not great.  Certainly not at 33 million per year level.  Way too many questions on the starting staff and the young players that are supposed to be so great.  They don't get enough playing time to produce.  Joe Pohlad probably is the best Pohlad to represent ownership.  But the fiasco with the TV deal continues to show they still consider money and bottom line profits way above the fans.  So little has changed.

There is an assumption here that spending in free agency is key to a modest revenue team winning a WS.  History does not support that conclusion.  There have been 4 teams with equal or less revenue compared to the twins to win the WS this century.  (since 2000).  I have roster summaries depicting method of acquisition for all of them except the 2003 Marlins.  Free agent played a role but none of them were major expenditures.  It was either guys somewhat outperforming their contact like Edison Volquez or more modest 2 year type deals.  There is one team that really hit on free agents and that was the 2019 Nationals.  They obviously had enough incremental revenue compared to the twins to pay for the 2 elite free agents that carried them but they are the closest thing to the twins in terms of revenue that achieved success through free agent spending.

There is a persistent assumption that free agent spending is key to the Twins winning a WS but the last 25 years or more does not have a single example of elite free agents leading the way to a WS for a team like the Twins.  The example below is the 15 Royals.  The way I set this up is to determine the acquisition method for the teams top players by WAR.  I use a break point of 1.3 WAR for RPs and 1.5 WAR for other dependent upon the team.  TaP is traded for as prospect.  This includes players that have made it to the MLB level but never produced the minimum WAR established in this criteria.  The Royals only had one significant free agent in terms of performance and that was Edison Volquez who is far from the type of free agent being called for on TD.  He was actually a player most here would not have wanted.  He had not done much at all in the past 6 years.

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gurriel in ‘23 - .309 OBP & 108 OPS+ - 24 HR in 551 AB’s & 5 steals. Plays LF…….$14M/yr for 3 years

W. Castro in ‘23 - .339 OBP & 106 OPS+ - 9 HR in 358 AB’s & 33 steals. Plays 3 OF & 3 IF as needed……..$3M/yr for 1 year

F.O. does a pretty good job IMO.

Topa made 70 appearances and had a 2.61 ERA ……..#76 Prospect (not a big deal to me) ……..potential 5th starter  -  Polanco played 80 games in ‘23. Seems like a good return for two arms & $5M total cost. Between the two arms they throw 10% of the Team’s innings (145) at worst.

To me, Burnes for a year, & having to give up 4 - 5 assets (3 of which would have been pipeline guys) isn’t worthwhile. Keeping guys that have talent and will be inexpensive on your club in 1 - 4 years makes sense. Then though, FA is the path for the short term bump ahead…….I think team is fine!!

I didn't mention Burnes, did I? Maybe I should read my post. I don't disagree with the return in the Polanco trade as far as potential long term play really. I thought the Twins could have made a trade, including Polanco and others, that would have been an improvement on this year's team. I was willing to trade either Kepler or Wallner if the Twins signed Gurriel Jr. and added a top pitcher. Much of my ideas (totally guesses) were based on how Seattle had made acquiring Jorge Polanco their main offseason objective after moving on from strikeout prone players. It is all guesswork in any event. Water over the dam, but I was mostly writing to tell Tom that wishing for any of the current free agents was pointless and not obtainable. I think the team is fine too. 

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Typical Twins bs.  Yes the Mauer signing was great.  Correa not so much.  Buxton?  A big waste of money.  To me the problem in part is where to allocate those dollars available for payroll.  Paying Correa and Buxton 50 million per season on a reduced payroll to it'd current 124 million is ridiculous.  Buxton has been an over hyped failure for 8 years.  Correa has been good not great.  Certainly not at 33 million per year level.  Way too many questions on the starting staff and the young players that are supposed to be so great.  They don't get enough playing time to produce.  Joe Pohlad probably is the best Pohlad to represent ownership.  But the fiasco with the TV deal continues to show they still consider money and bottom line profits way above the fans.  So little has changed.

My only question is whether you can pull up specific posts/comments where you immediately and consistently voiced your disapproval both before and after the Buxton and Correa signings? There were people who did not want to sign either player and said so. I was just curious. Or perhaps you meant that the numbers in those contracts reflect an outsized percentage of the total payroll. 

For example, I was completely opposed to trading for Tyler Mahle before the trade and especially did not want the Twins to send off Christian E-S. However, once the trade was made I thought that the trade reflected an attempt to make the Twins better and then supported that trade. I posted a suggested trade of Arraez plus a couple of others to Miami for Luzardo and Cabrera immediately after the end of the 2022 season. We are just fans and make our guesses.

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

My only question is whether you can pull up specific posts/comments where you immediately and consistently voiced your disapproval both before and after the Buxton and Correa signings? There were people who did not want to sign either player and said so. I was just curious. Or perhaps you meant that the numbers in those contracts reflect an outsized percentage of the total payroll. 

For example, I was completely opposed to trading for Tyler Mahle before the trade and especially did not want the Twins to send off Christian E-S. However, once the trade was made I thought that the trade reflected an attempt to make the Twins better and then supported that trade. I posted a suggested trade of Arraez plus a couple of others to Miami for Luzardo and Cabrera immediately after the end of the 2022 season. We are just fans and make our guesses.

The majority was very adamant about signing Correa.  The language was strong and the sentiment was that it had to be done or we were not an organization serious about winning.   I think he will bounce back and I sure hope he does because his product at $33M AAV is a disaster for an organization with other $300M in revenue.

If you look back on the Mahle discussions, I was very much opposed.  He was not a true difference maker and more importantly that team was not worthy of that level of investment.  We would be in much better shape now and for several years had the FO not opted to trade away future production for a team that had a bunch of injuries and simply was not very good.  MLB network had Steer as the #10 rated LF and CES could end up to be an absolute beast not to mention they would both fit in on this team perfectly.

31 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The majority was very adamant about signing Correa.  The language was strong and the sentiment was that it had to be done or we were not an organization serious about winning.   I think he will bounce back and I sure hope he does because his product at $33M AAV is a disaster for an organization with other $300M in revenue.

If you look back on the Mahle discussions, I was very much opposed.  He was not a true difference maker and more importantly that team was not worthy of that level of investment.  We would be in much better shape now and for several years had the FO not opted to trade away future production for a team that had a bunch of injuries and simply was not very good.  MLB network had Steer as the #10 rated LF and CES could end up to be an absolute beast not to mention they would both fit in on this team perfectly.

I sorta remember who was out on Mahle, etc. My comment was only really for those who are suggesting that the money for Buxton, Correa, or Lopez is too much and curious whether those same folks had the same specific thoughts and comments in on Twins Daily back before and right after the deals were completed.

It was a response to a comment down on the expenditures and made me curious because I don't remember many speaking against Buxton or Correa.

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I sorta remember who was out on Mahle, etc. My comment was only really for those who are suggesting that the money for Buxton, Correa, or Lopez is too much and curious whether those same folks had the same specific thoughts and comments in on Twins Daily back before and right after the deals were completed.

It was a response to a comment down on the expenditures and made me curious because I don't remember many speaking against Buxton or Correa.

I understand the direction of the Mahle comments.  I only mentioned by position at the time because I got pounded for being against it.  Supporters followed the logic that they were in 1st place.  My position was I don't give a crap what place they were in.  They were not a team worthy of investment and I think that was proven beyond a doubt.  

I remember the Buxton threads quite well.  There were people lashing out at the FO saying these guys were completely out of touch and "not serious" if they did not offer Buxton $150M in guaranteed money just for starters.  Obviously, this was far from a unanimous position but most people wanted to keep Buck and were happy with a $15M/year quarantee.  

With Correa, there were plenty of people who felt we should pony up even when it was 12 years.  I was OK with it when they went to 6 years but there was still a very small minority that did not want to make the $200M investment.  Right now they look pretty smart but I think there is a good chance that investment will look a lot better this year.   

There was even a little of the "I am out" as a Twins fan if they don't spend the money for these players.