yarnivek1972
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Everything posted by yarnivek1972
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Article: Key Twins Quarter-Mark Questions
yarnivek1972 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You can manipulate Belisle's numbers any way you want. It won't change his unacceptably high walk rate. No pitcher will do well walking 11 batters in 15 IP.- 44 replies
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- ervin santana
- byron buxton
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Article: Real Or Pretender?
yarnivek1972 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins had a very strong series in Baltimore. It was IMO by far their most impressive series of the season. They went into the home ballpark of one of the best teams in the league (when the series began) and took it to them in every way. The Twins out hit, out pitched and out fielded the Orioles. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to label them title contenders yet. I am willing to believe that they should be able to, at the very least, stay with the Indians and Tigers all year barring catastrophic injury to Sano or Santana. One key ingredient is the game of "pick me up" that they seem to be excelling at. Miguel Sano is a budding superstar. Everyone know that. But it takes more than one superstar to win in baseball. Just ask Ken Griffey Jr or Ernie Banks. It's a team game. You need contributions from all 25 players. For the most part, the Twins are getting that. Well, probably more like 21-22. But, that's still pretty good and better than a lot of teams are getting. Case in point, Miguel Sano went 0 for 9 with 6 K in the final two games of the series. Yet the Twins won both games, just fine. It's easy to win when your superstar does the heavy lifting. But, sometimes the rest of the boys have to pick him up. Today, Kennys Vargas had two RBI to support a third consecutive quality start from Jose Berrios. The bullpen put the clamps down and it was game over. Yesterday, Ervin spun another gem. The bottom 3 in the order manufactured the first run with a walk and two singles. Dozier's HR provided insurance. I've been saying all throughout April and May that the Twins were feasting off bad teams. This series showed they can play with good teams. It was a critical test for a young team. They passed with flying colors. Next test starts Friday. The Rays are under .500, but they are a dangerous team. They are 4th in the AL in runs and 3rd in ERA. So, how are they sub .500? Well, 33 errors leading to 23 unearned runs probably hasn't helped. Only Oakland has allowed more unearned runs in the AL. Being in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox hasn't helped them either. But they are definitely a dangerous team. There really is no weak link in their rotation, although there is no clear ace, either. Archer is probably their best, and I believe he goes Friday. Three different Rays' hitters have at least 18 extra base hits already, the Twins have just one such hitter. There are two Rays that already have 12 HR. And neither one is named Evan Longorria. Definitely a powerful middle of the order to contend with. Twins players and fans: relax, kick back and enjoy tonight and tomorrow. There is still a lot of season left. And a lot of really good teams the Twins have to play in the near future. So, have fun, but not too much fun - as a coworker of mine says. The rest of the season starts in 48 hours.- 137 replies
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- brian dozier
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Vargas' career OPS is .751. The BEST season Mauer has had since the start of Vargas' MLB career is .752. I'm too lazy to do the math to figure it out exactly, but overall since the start of 2014 it's lower than .751. So, please explain how that statement is incorrect. Perhaps you should check the numbers.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm cherrypicking? This isn't personal. I don't "hate" Joe Mauer. I don't like that he's a shell of his former self and I don't like that he is, as far as I am concerned, taking at bats away from Vargas. I view Vargas as a better hitter at the respective spots in their careers. Many on this forum disagree, but the numbers from the day Vargas hit the majors up to today are on my side.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: The 5 Most Shocking Twins Stats So Far
yarnivek1972 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm trying to think who has hit behind him most of the year, but it doesn't seem like there has been much consistency in that regard off the top of my head. Mauer mostly perhaps? Sano quite a bit lately - the reverse psychology of NOT wanting to walk the guy in front of Sano means that you stress yourself into doing just that.- 33 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: The 5 Most Shocking Twins Stats So Far
yarnivek1972 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"Santana is on track for his lowest strikeout rate since 2006, and his highest walk rate ever. And he might start the All Star Game." Assuming his injury is in fact minor, my guess would be Dallas Keuchel. He beat out Ervin for pitcher of the month and is still undefeated. Of course, who knows. There's 6 weeks between now and then. Add the factor of someone possibly starting the Sunday before.- 33 replies
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- joe mauer
- miguel sano
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Considering that Vargas hasn't hit lhp this year yet, I actually doubt that will happen anytime soon. And given that Paul Molitor has apparently decided that Kepler is a platoon player, I'm not sure what the plan going forward will be. Most likely vs most lhp until something changes (like Vargas hitting lhp better for example) probably see something like: c Gimenez 1b Mauer 2b Dozier 3b Escobar ss Polanco lf Rosario cf Buxton rf Grossman dh Sano With Sano, Mauer and Escobar kinda rotating the DH/1B/3B spots.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's the thing though. He's older and his body is simply breaking down faster now than 5-10 years ago. We old guys know all about that. Nagging injuries are the new normal for him.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
- tony oliva
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Joe Mauer hasn't slugged .390 since 2013, let alone .440. Are you really convinced he's capable of that anymore?- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
- tony oliva
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Mauer has hit 3rd the overwhelming majority of his career, behind some pretty good table setters, at times. So, he does come up with runners on. He does possess very good numbers with RISP, which begs the question why so few RBI. My theory is his approach. He's more than happy to slap a single the other way. That doesn't always get the run in though. While RBI may not be the best number to judge hitters, nor is it the only number I use. I do not believe they are "utterly meaningless". Last time I checked the object of the game was to outscore your opponent. Would it help if I also note that Vargas' OPS is still higher than Mauer's? And also was in 2 of the last 3 years.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wow. I guess we are just going to have to disagree there. Same number of RBI in half the AB. Just saying.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't agree with that. Sure, in terms of WAR he is. But WAR inflates his value because he was a catcher, but that isn't what the statement is saying. The statement is he is one of the five best hitters, to me that means independent of position. Killebrew, Carew and Puckett were clearly superior. I would make the case for Kent Hrbek and Tony Oliva. Hrbek had the plate discipline of Mauer, but power that Mauer only showed for one season in his career. Oliva had the elite level batting average and at times also showed upper echelon power. Both Hrbek and Oliva also were better run producers. At the end of the day the goal of the offense is to score runs. When people talk about all time great Twins hitters one name that often gets ignored is Bob Allison. His career OPS+ is 127, exactly the same as Joe Mauer's. One could also make a case, again POSITION INDEPENDENT, that Justin Morneau was a better hitter. Certainly more productive. Mauer has played 3 more seasons than Morneau did with the Twins but Morneau still has more RBI. So, in short, I would peg Mauer as the 7th best hitter for the Twins all time.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Article: Trust The Process And The Stats
yarnivek1972 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All that tends to prove is that as age has caught up with him, he is unable to maintain his edge like he could even 5 years ago. He can still be productive in short bursts when he gets adequate rest. But he simply is incapable of maintaining production consistent with his lineup spot if he plays too much. IMO all the rain outs have kept him fresh.- 75 replies
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- joe mauer
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Sorry, it has to be said. It's like a baseball conversation between Kirk and Spock. Ok, back to seriousness now.
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Just curious and I only noticed because Lachlan is my guy and I had already posted in adopt. But your article said 92 pitches for Wells, while the box score said 90 even.
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- lachlan wells
- jermaine palacios
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Article: Finding A Jolt For The Bullpen
yarnivek1972 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They certainly don't have any lhp that can go through an order fully. No lefty reliever they have (and that actually includes Boshers and Melotakis) that has established ability to retire right hand hitters. -
Well, now you're talking about MLB pitchers. That's different. Of course, for much of last year the Twins didn't have competent MLB defenders at a lot of spots. Tonkin making that list surprises me because he has high K rate - relative to the staff anyway.
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- jaylin davis
- nik turley
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Article: Finding A Jolt For The Bullpen
yarnivek1972 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It hasn't been though. It's been inconsistent. check the game logs After 5 outings, his K per 9 was 10.8. Then he went 6 IP over 5 games without any K. Since then, 7 K in 4 1/3 IP, but that stretch also has seen him give up 5 of the 10 hits he's allowed this season, 4 of the 5 walks and both HR. So, you say you wanna be a scout? Analyze that. So, will the real Mason Melotakis, please stand up? Who knows, maybe inconsistent is just what he is now. -
Article: Finding A Jolt For The Bullpen
yarnivek1972 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Two homeruns allowed today, including a grand slam to the first guy he faced. The second HR was to a left handed hitter, that's a stunner. That's the first HR he's allowed to a LHB since he's been at AA - which would be since 2014. Yoiks and away. -
Not necessarily. Sometimes you get blown out early.
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- keith law
- byron buxton
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I'm kinda on the fence on that. It almost has to be taken case by case. I guess a pitcher giving up a lot of unearned runs relative to his teammates would be a red flag. Is something about the way he pitches causing fielders to be on their heels? Control? Time between pitches? On the other hand, if you have a minor league pitcher out there battling and he gets a guy to hit into what should be a routine end of the inning grounder, should he be faulted if a guy who will probably never reach the majors kicks it and a run scores? If I'm that pitcher, I'm thinking to myself, "They make that play Up There". If that happens just once every third start, that could be 8-10 unearned runs in a season.
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- jaylin davis
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Article: Finding A Jolt For The Bullpen
yarnivek1972 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As I have said before, I am of the school of thought that believes there is some value in making a stop at AAA, even if it's a short one. I certainly accept and acknowledge that there are those who disagree. But what is relevant is the school of thought of the guy in charge. We just don't know yet. Unless someone really wants to go through the Indians' pitching prospects over the last few years and see how many, if any, skipped AAA on the way up. Current Indians closer Cody Allen did not. He threw less than 20 innings in high A and AA combined, but more than 30 at AAA. Perhaps that is an indication of his school of thought - because it took place right as Falvey took over, especially for high power college arms. What we DO know is that the TWINS have NOT done so. Not recently anyway. Not with pitchers. Seth mentioned Jose Mijares. But Mijares did have a brief stint in AAA before being sent back down. Only after getting hurt and then healthy was he a September call up direct from the end of the AA season. And as much as it was to help, I think it was about getting him more innings. No one has mentioned anyone else and I can't think of any off the top of my head since Eric Milton, almost 20 years ago. My point is that I don't see the Twins calling up Burdi (or any other pitcher) from AA. All the more reason to jettison some of the flotsam at AAA to make room for Burdi, et al. -
Exactly. It's not just the roster spot. It's the lost opportunity to pitch. It's the same reasoning that was given to not start Engelb Vielma at AAA to start the season - there's no room. Really? Then MAKE room. It's pro baseball. Guys get released everyday. It isn't pleasant to do and it isn't an easy decision, but sometimes it has to be done. As for this case specifically, Randy LeBlanc could have stayed in AA and worked on his control problems there, not? In as much as it is nonsensical to have 28 year olds at AA, it is just as curious to have a 25 year old in A ball, unless he's on a rehab assignment of course. Nick Anderson is 26. He probably doesn't belong in A ball either. David Fischer is 27. Really?? Frickin A ball? Edit: OK, just noticed Fischer missed the last two years. So that isn't SO bad, but still. Wow, I guess I never realized how bad this situation was. I get that on a typical minor league team there are probably 3-4-5 legitimate MLB prospects and the other 20 or so guys are simply there to essentially play around them. I even get that the prospects will be a couple years younger than these "org filler" types. But 25, 26 and 27 year olds shouldn't be in A ball. Org filler or not. If that is what they are, they can fill it at AA. If there is no room there, move some org filler to AAA. If no room there, that's when you send guys into the manager's office and have them shut the door. This would be a good post for the "About that Farm System" Thread. The Twins minor league garden needs to be cultivated, BADLY. RAPIDLY.
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- jaylin davis
- nik turley
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Even more non-sensical than Turley. Wimmers is ALREADY 28. If Falvey doesn't think he belongs, RELEASE HIM. Keeping 28 year olds in AA makes zero sense.
- 29 replies
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- jaylin davis
- nik turley
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Other than being the 9th best reliever for the Red Wings, nothing. Falvey and Levine need to start making decisions with regards to these arms in AAA. They aren't helping anyone's development by shuttling people back and forth to extended spring. There are only so many innings for these guys to pitch. The FO needs to figure out which ones should be there and let them pitch.
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- jaylin davis
- nik turley
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