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Respy

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Everything posted by Respy

  1. Respy
    Kepler IMO has looked more comfortable against lefties this spring, though generally I expect he'll continue to struggle against quality 7th/8th inning lefties. Two things I think are most promising for Kepler: 1) Strikeout and walk numbers. Kepler has an above-average eye. He walked 206 times (~ 10%) and struck out 301 times (~15%) in the minors. His major league numbers here are modest (9% and 21%, respectively) and ripe for improvement. 2) BABIP. In 2016 and 2017 at the majors, Kepler had a batting average of .235 and .243, with BABIP of 0.261 and 0.276. In AAA he hit .282 with .309 BABIP. In AA he hit .322 with .359 BABIP. A very strong correlation here suggests his average should sit around the .270 range, and if he ever decides to work on increasing his launch angle, I see him as a .280 hitter with 20-30 HR power. I've also been quite impressed by his defense the last two years. Could play center if he needed to. Kepler just turned 25 and he doesn't hit free agency until 2022. I'm looking forward to seeing what the young man can do this year.
  2. Respy
    Erm..What was Mariah Carey's career WAR?
  3. Respy
    I predict that Buxton breaks Christian Guzman's Twins season record of 20 triples.
  4. Respy
    It's also worth mentioning that Mauer needs 8.9 more WAR to be the all-time Twins WAR leader, which one could argue would make Mauer the greatest Twins player of all time. It's a difficult, but not impossible, achievement to obtain for the almost-35-year-old.
  5. Respy
    I wanted to mention a few upcoming All-Time-Twins milestones: 1. Mauer needs 39 hits to pass Killebrew (2024), 100 hits to pass Carew (2085 Twins uniform hits). 2. Dozier needs 13 homeruns to pass Brunansky (163). Also: 3. Sano needs 29 homeruns to reach 100 career homeruns. 4. Dozier needs 10 SB to reach 100 career SB. 5. Ervin Santana only needs 1 win to reach 150 career wins.
  6. Respy
    I think you are correct, and that's also not necessarily the point. I (and I assume Paul Molitor) expected, based on his pedigree, that Adrianza would bring a really good glove with near league-worst bat. But, Adrianza hits the ball with authority more than expected, and didn't strike out much last year. It's not going to be a league-average bat, but if he has better than a league-worst bat, he can probably provide positive value at shortstop. It's just too bad he has the same right/lefty splits as Escobar (much better against lefties).
  7. Respy
    I think Dozier's future status with the Twins will largely come down to the progression and health this year of Polanco, Gordon, and Royce Lewis. If all three are struggling, I'd expect the Twins to extend Dozier a 1-2 year offer, but not this early. If 2-3 of those players are being very successful, expect the Twins to extend Dozier only a qualifying offer. I assume they'd be just fine if Dozier accepted the qualifying offer (which might become more common after this offseason).
  8. Respy
    This is very interesting and helpful, thanks. Back when I was learning to pitch, in the mid-90's, there was just no help like this unless you knew somebody who can already throw the pitches. Just some books that say "grip here" without any subtext. I had a cousin who taught me to throw a mean curveball, but I never could figure out how to make a 2-seamer run without throwing it sidearm. The pressure with the thumb on the bottom is a good suggestion I never heard or thought to try.
  9. Respy
    This is helpful insight on the mound visits for 2018. Thanks.
  10. Respy
    I'm not going to conjecture whether or not Sano's weight impacts his performance. If he stays healthy, is on the field, is providing a positive WAR and is one of the best players on the team, I personally won't complain about him. But, if he's getting injured repeatedly, or if he's struggling at the plate, or his third base range metrics start dropping, and he also seems to be overweight, that's all people are going to talk about. Personally, if it were me in his shoes, I would try and keep a healthy and athletic weight (again, not going to conjecture what that is for him) just to keep that idea of naysayers off the table. It also sets a good example to teammates and younger prospects. Normal person example: Could I get all my work done, and at the same quality, if I came in to work everyday at 8:30am instead of 8am? Sure I bet I could. But, others around me would start complaining and looking for holes in my performance. Might as well just do it right and give others around me the right perception.
  11. Respy
    I see this as insurance for Santana getting surgery. Not much to see here. I think their main move is still pending.
  12. Respy
    I'm really hoping Gonsalves has a high floor and can stick around for quite a while in the middle-back end of the rotation. It's hard to expect a lot more than that from a pitcher who relies on control and some deception, and doesn't have the most filthy or overpowering of stuff. People have comp'd Gonsalves to Jaime Garcia, but I just don't see it. Garcia has a tight windup and release, and throws some loopy stuff. Gonsalves is long and loose and slings the ball, more like a poor-man's Chris Sale. But my favorite comp is to Jeremy Hellickson. Though Hellickson is a righty, watch the two pitching and you'll see that they have the same delivery and same approach to getting batters out. They have very similar minor league numbers. Hellickson was very successful his first two years in the majors, though his K/9 numbers dropped drastically in the majors from the minors. I think to be honest we should expect the same thing from Gonsalves. But if Gonsalves can stay healthy and pitch to an ERA in the mid to high 3's, he could be a big help to the team for at least a few years.
  13. Respy
    Out of the list, I see Melotakis as the biggest potential to make an impact, IF he can get his fastball velocity back up this year. The last 1.5 years I don't know if he's still been recovering, or tentative to throw hard, or the coaches changed his mechanics. If he can be that power lefty with FB sitting at 95-97, and has a good hard curveball, that's very playable in the majors. This is a make-or-break year for him (and of course the other players on your list, as well).
  14. Respy
    I'm extremely optimistic that most of 11-15 either slid a bit or was NR last year. If anyone thought we had a good or above average farm system last year, then it should be clear we have a very good one now.
  15. Respy
    This is interesting, and I wouldn't want to see a high o-swing% from the Twins, but more context is required here. Generally, the Twins have a low o-swing%, because they have a low swing%. Grossman does a good job of watching balls go by, but also has a much higher tendency to watch strikes go by. The Twins had the second lowest z-swing% (61.6%) in the MLB, the percentage of strikes swung at. And, as a result, the Twins therefore had the highest Zone% (48.6%), the % of pitches thrown to them in the zone in the MLB. I'd say the more important stat here is still an old-fashioned, BB/K, which the Twins did fairly well at 0.44 (7th in MLB).
  16. Respy
    The Twins and Indians should lead the division this year. I think the Royals will be awful. The Tigers might manage to be average. I'd say watch out for the White Sox in the 2nd half of the year, especially after they bring up Kopech and Jiménez. Moncada has the chance to be a monster this year. Giolito is very good. Rodon should be good when he returns if he's healthy.
  17. Respy
    I would presume that increasing the strike zone size would result in more strikeouts? I know that lowering the mound has been discussed. I personally would support this, especially and only if it also were to decrease injury risk for pitchers. Reference: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080323210203.htm
  18. Respy
    The only way I see longer relief appearances actually being implementable would be by limiting the roster size of the pitching staff. Less pitchers = more innings per pitcher and less mix-and-matching. But, I don't see this ever happening. If anything, I've heard ramblings of expanding the total roster size to 26, which would make the problem worse. I generally agree with most of Riverbrian's thoughts. People will watch a 2.5-3 hour sport if it's interesting enough. Or, at least they'll think to flip back to it near the end of the game. Let's find ways to make the game action more interesting for the casual fan. Analytics and new color commentators are a good way to do that.
  19. Respy
    I say yes, but only if it gives us something we don't already have. RH 1B/DH type? Gotta give Vargas his last shot this year. RH infielder? Escobar is fine. RH outfielder who is not a good outfielder? Grossman. I was all for Austin Jackson, but he already signed with the Giants. Chris Young might have fit the mold a couple years ago, but he hit lefties poorly last year, and was a below-average defender. I do not like Jose Bautista. His only appeal is that he hits well at Target Field. They should at least think about JD Martinez and Todd Frazier, but JD has priced himself out of our market (and he's a poor defender) and Frazier will probably only fit our team while Sano is potentially suspended. They should also look at Eduardo Nunez if they think Sano might be out for a while. With the current players available, I'd hold on RH bats and wait an see how things are going, particularly with Vargas, Grossman, Byungho Park, Garver, closer to the trade deadline.
  20. Respy
    Do you have WAR numbers for career with the Twins? For example, Eddie Guardado's career WAR while playing for the Twins is 8.6, exactly the same as Perkins. In that regard, I would assume Perkins needs to be in the Twins HOF. Second question: How much consideration of performance for other teams should go into Twins HOF nomination? I was under the presumption that Twins HOF was for contributions to the Twins only. For example, do you differentiate: Player A: 15 WAR with Twins as only team in short-ish career. Player B: 15 WAR with Twins, and 15 WAR with other teams. Player C: 15 WAR with Twins, and 50 WAR with other teams.
  21. Respy
    In this case I trust the scouts know what they're doing. Hopefully it works out well for everyone except the Marlins.
  22. Respy
    Amazing pitcher with a fire in his belly, yet a certain humbleness and respect for the game. Several of my favorite Twins memories were with Johan on the mound, including the 17-strikeout game in 2007. Absolutely dominant on many occasions.
  23. Respy
    Perhaps Joe is too old to make the switch at this point, and perhaps it's blasphemic of me to say this after Joe nearly won a gold glove at first base, but perhaps Joe could still move to third base? I know when he was moving out from catcher, there was talk of him at third, first, or corner outfield. I always thought he had the right skill set to play third, but maybe not at age 35-36. We'll see how 2017 goes, but I'll be surprised if the Twins can keep him as an everyday first baseman, especially with Sano on the roster and Rooker potentially coming soon.
  24. Respy
    I tried hard to find points of disagreement, but I don't have any strong arguments against this list, other than I'd expect about 2 of the lineup regulars in 2021, which is quite far from now, to be players who are not in our organization currently. My best guess is that those outsider players will occupy catcher, third base, or corner outfield. I personally don't think Dozier will be with the Twins, or at 3rd base, in 2021. I'd peg that spot as Bechtold, Chris Paul, or an outside RH bat.
  25. Respy
    I'd like to know what TC does in the winter. Hibernate? Snowmobile? Practice hitting softballs over the center field fence?
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