Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images Power is not going to be the calling card for Luke Keaschall, no matter what. However, it doesn't look like defense will be, either, so the speedy and contact-savvy Twins second baseman might have to tap into a bit more pop in order to be as dynamic a player as the team needs him to be. Unfortunately, last season, he showed some of the lowest bat speed in baseball—which puts a frighteningly low ceiling on a player's power production. In his brief active stint (207 plate appearances, before and between a broken forearm and a thumb issue), Keaschall still slugged .529 on contact (SLGCON); the median hitter only had a .548 SLGCON last year. Some of that was good batted-ball luck, though, and some came from Keaschall's speed, as he had more than one hustle double. Though the hustle double is arguably the game's most delightful play, it's also one good defensive positioning often takes away—especially once the book on a given hitter gets out. Thus, coming into this season, the dearest hope for Keaschall boosters was that we would see an uptick in bat speed. That was certainly a reasonable thing for which to hope, too. Last spring, he was still technically recovering from Tommy John surgery he'd undergone in August 2024. He then broke his forearm when he was hit by a pitch, so even the longer stretch he got in the majors in August and September was marred (and his bat speed perhaps diminished) by a lingering issue in a body part essential to the swing. We only have one three-game series of data so far, but it looks like Keaschall has, indeed, found more bat speed this spring. He hasn't materially changed his stance, his bat path or his contact point, but he's swinging much faster. His average bat speed was just 66.9 MPH last year; it's up to 70.2 so far. Just as importantly, he's showing the ability to swing at a very high speed (north of, say, 74, MPH) that was missing last year. He only had 14 such swings in the big leagues in 2025; he had three this weekend in Baltimore. Now, not all swing speeds are created equal. A hitter can sometimes generate a whole lot of extra bat speed, but get no value from it, simply by cutting it loose for its own sake and disregarding making contact. We've all seen players swing from their heels and look theoretically dangerous, but not come especially near the baseball. In fact, Keaschall did do that once this weekend. eUxsQjhfVjBZQUhRPT1fVlZOWUJRZFJWUVVBRHdSUkJBQUhWVk5YQUFBQ1ZGWUFBUUFOQWdVR0J3cGRCUVVG.mp4 That was the first pitch he saw all season, and he seemed to think, "Wouldn't it be cool if I homered on the first pitch I saw?" It would have been, but he didn't come anywhere near doing it, and he exercised greater restraint the rest of the series. Still, he's also demonstrating higher functional bat speed, if you will. Consider his at-bat against Orioles closer Ryan Helsley Sunday afternoon. Keaschall was leading off the top of the ninth in a two-run game, so the goal was to get on base. With Helsley's intense stuff, though, that's no easy project—and no job for the weak or the meek. Keaschall took the first two pitches, to get ahead 2-0. Then, with Helelsy taking a bit off (the pitch was only 97 MPH), he fouled off the next offering. Here's what that looked like. bmJsMTlfVjBZQUhRPT1fQUZCVVZBSURWbEVBRDFNRkFnQUhWdzREQUZrQ1V3Y0FVMXdGVmdwUkIxWUFBd2NB.mp4 That swing was 74.9 MPH. Now, it also led to a foul ball to the right side, because Keaschall was late, so perhaps you're wondering why the bat speed matters. Wasn't he still beaten on the pitch? Yes, but in a greater sense, no. Raw bat speed is not how you hit high-velocity pitching. It matters, but (as the Statcast measurements confirm), the other guy can throw the little sphere in his hand faster than you can swing your big wooden club—especially because you have to react to him. Bat speed is often better applied in a situation like this, where a hitter anticipates a fastball, but doesn't want to start too early and end up chasing a pitch that wasn't really worth swinging at. Here, Keaschall wanted a heater, and geared up to hit one. But as the data and the result tell us, he wasn't getting antsy—not with nobody out and the tying run in the on-deck circle. It made much more sense to be patient unless he got a pitch right down the middle. He did, and he didn't do anything with it, but that doesn't make the swing a waste. This is a good example of how we can learn to use swing speed as a process stat—meaning not only that it's one input in the slow buildup to the actual result of a pitch or plate appearance, but that it tells us something about what the hitter was trying to do. In this spot, for Keaschall to swing fast but be late on a pitch in the lower range of Helsley's fastball velocity range, what we can learn is that he was laser-focused on not chasing. If he'd done everything perfectly, he still would have squared this ball up and driven it on a line somewhere, but he wasn't going to get himself out or freely give Helsley an advantage on this pitch. If he'd been one small click earlier, timing-wise, he would have gotten a hit on this pitch. If Helsley had thrown him a slider, instead of a fastball, but it had still been an in-zone pitch, Keaschall would have hit it over the wall in left field. That's the real benefit of bat speed, much of the time. It lets you start a hair later than you otherwise might, so if you guess wrong but see the ball well, you might be early in a good way. That's where a lot of extra-base hits come from. A hitter who makes a plan to take their 'A' swing on a pitch like this, or not to swing at all, is very unlikely to make the grievous mistake of (say) grounding out to shortstop on 2-0. On the next pitch, Keaschall modulated his plan a bit, knowing Helsley was back in the count. Again, though, Keaschall hadn't helped him; Helsley had just made the right pitch and gotten a bit less behind. This swing was only 68.2 MPH, but it worked gorgeously. bmJsMTlfVjBZQUhRPT1fQXdSUVhWRlhCd1VBQUFkV1VRQUhDUThDQUZoVVZ3UUFBMWRXQ1ZBRkNGSUFWQVJV.mp4 The thing not to take away from this is that swing speed isn't important. It is. It's just a complex number, disguised as a simple one. Keaschall got what could have been a rally-sparking hit Sunday on a slow swing, but it was made possible by a faster swing on the pitch before. Seeing Keaschall late on the 2-0 pitch, Helsley humped it up to 98.4 and came in on him on the next one, and Keaschall did have to shorten up to get the barrel to it. He did so, though, and he's very good at doing so. The lesson pitcher and catcher took from the previous offering was that they could beat Keaschall with velocity, but they were wrong. Keaschall had known what to look for and how hard to swing on the previous pitch, and he knew what to look for and how hard to swing on this one. The answer changed in between, but Keaschall was moving with it. Showing the ability to swing fast—especially early in counts or when ahead—is important. It forces pitchers to work differently to you. It gives you chances to unload on mistakes, even if power isn't the primary element of your game. Keaschall didn't really have that club in his bag last year, but in 2026, he looks more able to let it eat when the occasion calls for it. That will pay off, as long as he remains as adaptable and smart in the box as he's looked throughout his career to date. View full article

Mentioned a little, in that those were the first words of the article.., "Though he surrendered five hits and a walk, Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday," "Bruce Chen types" is too dismissive of what Ober can still do, imo. Chen threw 84-86. Nine guys other than Ober threw 40+% of their fastballs at 88-91 last year; four of the nine had better-than-average ERAs. I don't think velocity is the litmus test you're trying to make it; throwing slower just means you have to be better at the other stuff, as I discussed above.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Though he surrendered five hits and a walk, Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday, in his second appearance of the Cactus League season. He threw 53 pitches, of which the Red Sox swung at 24, and induced seven whiffs. Five of those seven whiffs came on his signature pitch: the changeup. There were encouraging signs, then, but there were also some red flags. Ober's fastball sat around 89 MPH in the first inning (though he reached 90.7 on one sinker in that frame). By the third, he was barely sitting 88. The story of Ober's 2025 was an inability to consistently show his usual, excellent command, which was a result of nagging injury issues. However, another manifestation of those hip and other problems was diminished velocity, and with Ober, any loss of speed reduces his margin for error almost to zero. When he's commanding his whole arsenal well, he can maneuver within even that zone of necessary perfection. He's dependent not on power, but on precision and execution. He has to be able to produce the pitch shapes he wants and hit his spots, more than he needs to have the ability to overpower hitters or put them on the defensive. Even last year, in an otherwise frustrating campaign, there were a few days when he was brilliant, because a pitcher who can manipulate the ball as deftly as Ober often can is a dream to watch and a nightmare to face. Some of that was on display Thursday. Ober showed good command of his changeup, which has long been the most important part of his arsenal. He induced five whiffs and got one called strike on 19 total changeups. Three of the whiffs came against one batter, the utterly stumped Marcelo Mayer, but it was still a positive sign. Ober's changeup showed great depth, and he was able to both land it in the zone and throw the strike-to-ball version designed to induce chases outside the zone. The other two whiffs came against right-handed batters, though, and so did his lone called strike with that pitch. Of the 36 total pitches he threw to righties, 12 were changeups. That's an important development. For each of the last three years, Ober has thrown the changeup a little more than a third of the time to lefties, and a little under a quarter of the time to righties. Holding those usage rates constant might work, but ideally, he could ratchet each up slightly this year, without overexposing the pitch. He needs to better protect his fastball, which doesn't miss bats the way it did two years ago and looks very unlikely to start doing so again. However, Ober's slider was a major problem last year, and doesn't look like a reliable pitch for him against either lefties or righties at this stage. His sweeper is better against righties; his curve works better against lefties. But neither of those pitches can be his main alternative to the fastball, if he wants to reduce his reliance on that offering. Throwing the changeup a bit more to lefties shouldn't be a problem, if he has command of it the way he did on Thursday. (If he doesn't have that command, he's in big trouble, anyway.) Going to the changeup in right-on-right matchups, however, is often uncomfortable for pitchers. It's easy to understand why. The natural movement of that pitch is down and in toward a same-handed batter, so if the pitch isn't well-located, it runs right into an opponent's barrel. Because it's usually a pitch used to move off the outside corner to opposite-handed batters, it can also be hard for a pitcher to get used to starting the ball in a different place. A good changeup to a same-handed batter needs to start lower but farther toward the glove side, so its movement will keep it on the plate but get below the zone. Running it off the edge the way one does against an opposite-handed batter makes for an easy take (and sometimes a relatively painless trip to first base for the batter, via plunking). Leaving it in the lower, arm-side third of the zone, the way one often does to opposite-handed batters, makes for mashed taters. Here's where Ober threw his changeups against lefty batters last season. The difference between that distribution and the same plot for righty batters is subtle, but it's there. When Ober's on (as he was Thursday), he can manipulate that changeup well enough to attack hitters on both sides with it. He changes start lines on the pitch; he changes its shape; and he still finds his targets. However, it's hard to count on having such good feel for that pitch as often as he will need to in 2026. For fans, how well he can utilize the changeup—especially to righties—is the thing to watch from start to start all spring. For Ober, the tough task ahead is to establish a new level of consistency with that offering, to make up for the diminishment of much of the rest of his repertoire. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins are in a terrible predicament. With Pablo López likely to undergo Tommy John surgery before the end of the month, they're suddenly short a frontline starting pitcher, in a rotation mix that was meant to be the team's utmost strength heading into 2026. New chairman Tom Pohlad has issued a clear (though unfunded) mandate that the team be competitive this season, but it's hard to see how they can do so with the personnel on hand, given the staggering injury to their leader and ace. Compounding the loss of López is the fact that he is the highest-paid player on a team defined and constrained by its lack of payroll flexibility. López is due $21.5 million in 2026; the Twins won't pay any other player more than $15 million. López and Byron Buxton are the only guys making more than $6.7 million this year. It's possible that the team will recoup some of the lost salary via an insurance claim, but it's unlikely that they'll be given substantial money with which to recruit any representative replacement of their star righty. One way they could do so, however, would be to trade Trevor Larnach for pitching help. Larnach, soon to turn 29, is set to make nearly $4.5 million this year, but his role on the team has been obviated by the acquisitions of Josh Bell and Victor Caratini. He batted a respectable .254/.330/.428 against right-handed pitchers last season, but he has little defensive value and is not likely to be substantially better than Bell or Caratini as a DH in 2026. He has no place to play in the crowded (if underwhelming) Twins outfield mix, and is an injury risk even when he manages to lumber underneath a ball out in left field. With two years of team control remaining and coming off a season in which he made an apparently unconscious, ill-advised swing change, Larnach probably has some appeal to teams as a reclamation project. Until now, the Twins have been uninterested in trading him on those terms, holding out instead for a robust return that reflects the potential they saw in him when they made him a first-round pick and (over the years) a priority piece of the roster. If they come down on their asking price, though, they could match up with another team on a deal that would move them forward in the short term and the long term. Five teams stand out as having a surfeit of pitching depth and a need for left-handed help at DH or in left field. That doesn't mean they could find a perfect fit with the Twins on a trade, but these clubs make promising suitors if the team wants to offload Larnach. Moving him would need to bring back a pitcher who augments their depth, though it wouldn't bring anyone similar to López. The other, ancillary benefit of such a move would be freeing up a few million dollars to spend, perhaps on a last-second bullpen addition. Arizona Diamondbacks Somewhat shockingly, the Diamondbacks have brought back both Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in free agency. That leaves them with a bunch of good options in the starting rotation, especially once Corbin Burnes returns from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last spring. It wasn't really what the team initially planned to do, though. As a result, they'd already brought in Michael Soroka to round out a rotation that also includes compelling young arms Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. Meanwhile, the team dealt away outfielder Jake McCarthy and utility option Blaze Alexander, leaving them with extremely shaky options for the corner outfield spots and at DH. They'll go with Pavin Smith as the DH against most righties, and defense-first youngster Jorge Barrosa in left field. If Corbin Carroll is at all delayed in his return from a broken hamate bone, the team's corner outfield outlook will get truly destitute. Earlier this winter, Minnesota had interest in right-handed journeyman Taylor Clarke, who ultimately signed with Arizona. The low-wattage version of a deal sending Larnach to Arizona would be to get Clarke in exchange, filling innings and giving the Twins a small amount of upside, plus the aforementioned monetary savings to put toward relief help. The alternative version would make the team more expensive, not less so, but it would be buzzier: Minnesota could take on some portion of the $46 million left on the contract of left-handed starter Eduardo Rodríguez. Rodríguez, who will turn 33 in April, has posted an ERA just over 5.00 in his first two seasons with Arizona, but when he's right, he can still be a solid mid-rotation starter. He'd be a sponge for innings, rather than a respectable candidate for a playoff rotation spot, but the Twins could find multiple ways to extract value from him, if they found the right unlocks for a misused arsenal. The Diamondbacks would have to eat much of the money owed to Rodríguez, but that's not out of the question. Chicago Cubs With a loaded rotation, the Cubs will send at least three intriguing starters to Triple-A Iowa this spring, barring a spate of injuries. If 2021 first-round pick Jordan Wicks were panning out as hoped, he'd be more in the thick of the battle for a rotation spot, but as it is, he's a sturdy lefty with a plus changeup whose velocity has ticked up into the mid-90s in recent stints. Lanky right-handed starter Ben Brown would form a perfect trio with Taj Bradley and Mick Abel: three hard-throwing righties with tantalizing starter ceilings but major risk of ending up as a reliever, instead. Kitchen-sink swingman Javier Assad is nearing age 30 and still hasn't gotten a proper chance to establish himself in Chicago, despite putting up good numbers every time the team gives him a shot. None of the three are making significant sums in 2026. All three can be optioned to the minors. Chicago projects to have an all-right-handed-hitting bench, and currently has no choice but to slot Moisés Ballesteros in as their regular DH—a daunting proposition not only because Ballesteros is young and inexperienced, but because the Venezuelan prospect hasn't yet made it to Cubs camp due to visa issues. Larnach for one of Brown, Wicks or Assad could work out perfectly for both sides. Cincinnati Reds How much are you missing Chase Petty these days? He's not looking like a future star, but he remains an optionable arm with upside. Like Wicks, he was a 2021 first-round pick but hasn't yet found his stride in the majors. Like Brown, though, he has real promise even if he needs to be converted to the bullpen. Cincinnati's top starters are too good for the Twins to snatch them up in exchange for Larnach, but in addition to Petty, they have some relief arms they could spare and who would be notable upgrades for Minnesota. Houston Astros Loaded though they are on the infield, the Astros have a sketchy outfield picture to deal with. If the season began today, they'd give lots of at-bats to the likes of Joey Loperfido and Zach Cole in the corner spots, especially when facing right-handed pitchers. Larnach is slightly better and slightly cheaper than Jesús Sánchez, whom Houston traded for Loperfido at the beginning of camp as they rearrange deck chairs. He'd be a good fit for their home park. Meanwhile, the Astros are awash in flawed but useful starting pitching. Jason Alexander, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Kai-Wei Teng and Miguel Ullola are all optionable, but none are in line for many starts in the majors with Houston. In varying degrees and ways, all six are worth a look for the Twins. Swapping Larnach for one of them would give the team more controllable pitching and that financial flexibility they might need to improve the bullpen. Washington Nationals This would be something akin to a challenge trade. The rebuilding Nationals aren't going to surrender good pitchers under long-term control for a player like Larnach. However, he would solve some problems for them in filling out the lineup on a day-to-day basis, and they have some post-hype arms who might appeal to the Twins. Former All-Star (even if it was largely an obligatory selection, based on the rule that every team must be represented) Josiah Gray hasn't recovered as hoped from an injury detour, and only has the same amount of team control left that Larnach has, but he's also set to make $1.35 million this year, so he'd bring the team substantial savings. Righty Jake Irvin comes with Minnesota connections and more team control than Gray, though he, too, has been rough lately. Larnach can't command an especially rich return in a trade. The Twins are past the point of deluding themselves on that front. However, he could still net the team some viable pitching depth, which has become a more salient and serious need in the wake of Tuesday's news about López. General manager Jeremy Zoll will have to do something to repair the rupture of his roster. Finally moving Larnach might be the best way to go about it. View full article

Not as many times as we've seen people cleave to a causal explanation for coincidences... :)

I want this to be super clear: they took an MRI at the time of that injury and it was clean. Zoll stressed that today. This injury is UNRELATED to the scare in September.

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Pablo López eluded the Scalpel of Damocles last fall. He hurt his arm on an awkward dive in September, and he admitted afterward that he feared the worst. At the time, he escaped serious damage to his elbow, but spring is the reaping season for this kind of thing, and López was part of Jobe’s Harvest. He left the team’s first full-squad workout Monday with elbow soreness and underwent an MRI. On Tuesday, the team announced the bad news: López has a "significant tear" in his elbow and is likely to need season-ending (or, rather, season-thwarting) surgery. General manager Jeremy Zoll stressed that López, who will seek a second opinion before proceeding with the operation, suffered a new injury this spring. His MRIs from early 2023 and late 2025 looked identical; the damage to his ligament is new. López will get that second opinion from noted surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, but given the "significant tearing to his UCL in his elbow," even the best-case scenario would see him sidelined for a long time. "When it first happened, I was taken back to a bullpen session I threw in October 2013, where I threw a pitch and it felt like my elbow was right behind the ball," said a disappointed López, demonstrating his exceptional recall and attunement to his own body. "And it's, like, a raw way to put it, but that's kind of what it felt like, just something sharp happening by where I have a scar already." López, who will turn 30 early next month, also missed time with strains of his hamstring and shoulder in 2025. He made just 14 starts, but posted a 2.74 ERA and continued to be the co-ace of a strong starting rotation. If he elects surgery, he’ll miss the third season of a four-year contract extension worth a total of $73.5 million, which he signed in April 2023. He’s owed $21.5 million this season, and the same amount in 2027, after which he’ll become a free agent. Without him, Minnesota will struggle to maintain the rotation depth needed to compete even in the weak AL Central. Last year, starting pitching was a strength, but not a strong enough one to keep the team afloat. That was partially due to the prolonged absence of López for the middle stretch of the season, but also to Bailey Ober having a season marred by high home-run rates and a massive decrease in strikeout rate. Perhaps foreseeing this possibility, the team attempted to bolster their starting rotation in the final stages of free agency, pursuing Framber Valdez. Instead, though, Valdez signed with the Tigers, and now, there’s no strong candidate to replace what the Twins had hoped they would get from López this year. The loss of López does create more room in the rotation for the team’s young hurlers. In addition to Ober and Joe Ryan, the team has Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley and David Festa in position to push for starting roles. That’s hollow consolation, though, since none of that group is likely to be as good as López, even if one or more stays healthy and pitches to the best of their ability all year. "We spent a lot of the offseason talking about the strength of our roster being in the rotation depth, and [you can] view it as a real opportunity, as a 'next man up'," Zoll said, listing the aforementioned pitchers as candidates to thrive in expanded roles. "But, you know, we'll pick up the pieces once we have a better handle on things and catch our breath from where everything has shaken out here." The Twins acquired López from the Marlins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Almost immediately, both López and the Twins made it clear that he was more than a short-term boost for the starting rotation. The aforementioned extension cemented López as a pillar of the organization’s pitching plans. Now, the final guaranteed year of that contract looms as both a financial commitment and a target date for the club’s hopes of a full return. On the field, López largely delivered on that investment in his first two seasons in Minnesota. In 2023, he posted a 3.66 ERA across 194 innings with 234 strikeouts, immediately pitching like a staff leader and earning All-Star recognition. In 2024, he again took the ball 32 times, going 15–10 with a 4.08 ERA, striking out 198 in 185 1/3 innings. The raw ERA uptick didn’t change the larger picture: Minnesota had the kind of dependable, high-end starter the franchise has long prized. But the path to Tuesday was paved by a frustrating, stop-and-start 2025 season—one that offered both a reminder of López’s ceiling and a warning about his health. Even in his limited, interrupted workload, López was effective. He was the biggest source of the hopeful “what could have been” feeling around a season defined by missed opportunities and disappointment. That was supposed to carry him into a bounce-back 2026 season. Alas, those hopes are now scuttled. Zoll acknowledged that López, who first had Tommy John surgery as a teenager in the Marlins system, had exceeded the window of protection from reinjury that the operation typically affords. "It's an unfortunate reality with, you know, him originally having Tommy John surgery 12 years ago, and the reality of those, the shelf life of those ligaments, you just never know when these things could happen," Zoll said. The new top baseball executive said the team will explore the possibility of external additions to the rotation via free agency. All of that, however, undersells the irreplaceability of López. In addition to his excellence on the mound, he's been the team's most consistent leader and a pillar of the community for the last three baseball seasons. It would surprise no one in or around the Twins if he makes extraordinary efforts to be present with the team throughout the season, but players sidelined by injury have a hard time exercising the same influence in the clubhouse and the dugout, especially when they have to be away for significant stretches to complete major rehab processes. López's thoughtfulness, amiability and leadership will be missed just as much as his kick-change and his curveball. Characteristically, he went out of his way to express appreciation for how quickly the Twins and their medical team got him set up for an MRI on the Presidents Day holiday afternoon. López will cling to some hope while he awaits the second opinion, but was very realistic about it. "I think the second opinion is more just to shed a light or, you know, just one last hope that something can be interpreted in a different way," he said, acknowledging that the torn ligament "won't regenerate itself." Reader @rdehring raised a fair and good question in the comments on this piece, asking whether López's faster ramp-up to prepare for the World Baseball Classic could have contributed to this injury. Unfortunately, it's an impossible question to answer, but the theory is reasonable. For what it's worth, Zoll praised López's preparation in every particular and believed there was no red flag of any kind en route to this unhappy turn of events. "I guess to some extent, [this] feels like more of an inevitability than something he specifically did," Zoll said. "He had hit all his checkpoints throughout his build-up here in the offseason, and hadn't had any issues or soreness. And this was the first issue he had." In general, the WBC has been found to slightly increase the risk of pitcher injuries late in the season in which they take place, or the following spring. No systematic effect seems to produce more injuries to pitchers preparing for the Classic, but it's certainly one variable in the equation that bears further study. Twins Daily's John Bonnes is on site in Ft. Myers and provided reporting on this news. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins traded international bonus pool allotments to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda on Thursday, they announced. Twins Daily's John Bonnes was on site in Ft. Myers for the news. Banda, 32, has pitched in nine major-league seasons for eight different teams. He has an unimpressive 4.44 career ERA, but since the start of 2024, he's appeared in 119 games and has a 3.14 ERA. He pitched in 17 postseason games for the Dodgers during their back-to-back World Series championship runs. He struck out 23.3% of opposing batters over those two campaigns. Despite having pitched in each of the last nine big-league seasons, Banda has only amassed a bit over 4 years of major-league service time. The Dodgers agreed to a $1.625-million deal with Banda in early January, to avoid arbitration, but they designated him for assignment a month later. Now, the Twins have a chance to control Banda through 2027, at a low price. They designated right-handed journeyman Jackson Kowar for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Banda. With a low three-quarter arm slot and a plus sweeper, Banda is tough on fellow lefties. He throws both a sinker and a four-seamer, each around 96 miles per hour, leaning on the former against lefties and the latter against righties. His changeup is nothing to write home about, but as a left-handed middle reliever, you can do much worse than Banda. He joins Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk as likely candidates for the lefty side of the Minnesota bullpen this year. Slowly and late in the game, the team is cobbling together a semi-reliable bullpen, although they still lack anyone who feels like a relief ace. View full article

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images Letting Liam Hendriks slip away from them before he morphed into a bulldog of a closer was one of the most regrettable failures of the Twins' front office in the final days of the Terry Ryan regime. Bringing him back as a reclamation project in a weak bullpen doesn't make up for it, but it's a feel-good story, anyway. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the news. Hendriks isn't getting a guaranteed big-league deal. He'll be invited to big-league camp to compete for a place in the bullpen, but the Twins don't have to expend big money or (for now) even a 40-man roster spot. After becoming an All-Star closer with the Athletics and White Sox, Hendriks, 37, suffered a series of health setbacks. He was diagnosed with cancer in January 2023, and missed the first two-plus months of that season. His return was a triumphant, wonderful moment—but within a few weeks, he was shelved by an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. He hasn't been the same since. He missed all of 2024 and was only intermittently available last year for the Red Sox. His numbers were ugly when he did take the mound, too, though his stuff still impresses some models. If he can stay healthy, Hendriks has the makeup and the arsenal to be a useful right-handed reliever. The Twins are rolling the dice on his positive influence on the clubhouse and his body getting back to normal after a long period of disruption. If they lose, they won't have sacrificed anything substantial to try it. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Baseball Prospectus released its full PECOTA projections for 2026 Tuesday morning, including projected standings and playoff odds. The Twins are, unsurprisingly, forecasted to be a mediocre team, with 79 projected wins, good for third place in the AL Central. The Guardians, who had an even more maddening winter than did the local nine, come in fourth in PECOTA's pecking order, with 75.8 wins. The Tigers are ahead of Minnesota, at 83.9 wins, and gallingly, the Royals are projected to win the division with just 84.4 victories. Kansas City's division-leading win total is 4.1 wins lower than that of the second-lowest division winner on the projected standings page. Every other division in the league has at least one team with a good chance to win 90 games; most of them have two. The AL Central, however, has shown no ambition, and is rewarded with tepid forecasts. Despite a projection that marks them as solidly below average, the Twins have a 12.7% chance to win the division and a 22.3% shot to make the playoffs, according to PECOTA. These are the just desserts of a team that chose not to tear things down this winter, but also opted not to make significant investments in winning more games in 2026. As you would guess, the system likes the core of this team just fine. It expects All-Star-caliber seasons from Joe Ryan and Pablo López. It's high on Luke Keaschall's bat. However, the only team in baseball with a worse projected Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP), Prospectus's flagship fielding metric, is the Angels. They have an average projected offense and a slightly above-average projected pitching staff. If they had even a neutral defense, they would be neck-and-neck with the Royals and Tigers. Defense isn't even an expensive skill to acquire. Yet, the team has left themselves worst in the league in this crucial facet. Part of the projection is PECOTA (and DRP itself) disliking Byron Buxton's defense in center field, as he ages. Buxton's DRP was -4.7 in 2024 and -7.4 in 2025. PECOTA foresees a further decline, at age 32, to -9.4, making Buxton almost half the defensive problem for a team projected to lose roughly 19 runs to poor fielding. That's hard for many Twins fans to accept, with good reason. Buxton has been a defensive hero throughout his career. Early on, when he was extremely inconsistent at the plate, his glove propped up his profile and made him a star. Even now, he makes semi-frequent highlight-reel plays. However, Buxton has always been inclined to freeze when the ball leaves the bat, then take off with his elite speed and make up whatever ground he lost by not getting a great jump. As he's aged, that has become harder, and his success rate has sagged. He still posts elite sprint speeds, as measured by Statcast, but most of those come on the bases, where he knows Point A and Point B and can accelerate smoothly. On fly balls, he's lost a step, and it's showed up in a big way at times over the last two years. Buxton being part of the problem highlights the challenge the team faced this winter. They have some young players to whom they're committed, but who have shown little sign that they're ready to be pluses as everyday big-leaguers. Starting Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis on the left side of the infield means giving up some defense for the hope of their bats coming together, but each struggled at the plate last year. Some of the places where one would most like to see the team make a defensive upgrade would come at prohibitive costs in terms of offensive production. Still, the latest projections highlight the extent to which Minnesota was in position to push for an AL Central title in 2026, and the way they appear to have let that opportunity pass them by. The offseason isn't over, but the Twins don't look like a smart bet to make up the five-game gap between themselves and the Royals by the time it is. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images As the MLB offseason nears its end, the best remaining free agents are starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez. Even the next-best tier is made up mostly of starters, too—guys like Nick Martinez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell. For the Minnesota Twins, that's not obviously helpful, because the starting rotation is the strongest segment of their roster right now. Led by frontline, playoff-caliber starters Pablo López and Joe Ryan, the rotation has been the pillar around which the rest of the roster has crumbled over the last two seasons. However, the team's depth in starters doesn't prohibit them from improving by adding to the group, as long as they land someone who is genuinely likely to deliver above-average performance. Last year, injuries and shaky command left Bailey Ober a shell of his previous self, but he's penciled in as the No. 3 starter for the team with spring training on the horizon. A signing that pushes Ober down to fourth in the rotation and leaves the club's cluster of young, controllable starters vying for places in the bullpen or Triple-A St. Paul would be a wise investment, since new chairman Tom Pohlad seems intent on having the team challenge for a playoff berth in 2026. Thus, Valdez is beginning to make some sense for the Twins. It would be a very unusual move from a team this deep in an offseason this underwhelming, but Minnesota could still increase their payroll a bit from the present projection of $108.9 million. Valdez, 32, is a two-time All-Star and has averaged 192 innings per year over the last four seasons. He's as reliable an innings-eater as any starter in the league, and although Gallen is almost as durable, Valdez is the one guy who combines volume and impact in a way that could take the Twins' pitching staff to another level. It would take a minor miracle of coaching and development (not to mention good health) to make the 2026 Twins more than an average team when it comes to run production. However, with another high-upside arm like Valdez's in the mix, they could become a nearly elite run prevention club. That's the most realistic path to an AL Central title for the team this year, and if they do get to October with a starting rotation of Valdez, López and Ryan, anything is possible. They might even find that they can reinforce the positional side of the roster at the trade deadline, or that young players like Walker Jenkins and Luke Keaschall transform them into a more complete team by season's end. Valdez is still available because the long-term, nine-figure deal he envisioned when the winter began has not materialized. His price would have to swoop quite low for the Twins to become a legitimate candidate to sign him, but the team has been known to pull off unexpected February splashes. More importantly, there are already signs that Valdez's market is down low enough for that possibility to appear on the radar. A deal somewhat similar to the one the Padres roughed out with Nick Pivetta last winter—whereby Pivetta was guaranteed up to $55 million over four years and had the right to hit the market again after either of the first two seasons, but which helped San Diego by being heavily backloaded and including conditional club options—might end up making sense for both sides. After the departure of Derek Falvey last week, the temptation to doubt that the Twins will do anything of note for the balance of the offseason is understandable. The team continues to proclaim their intention to get better, though, and in a market drying up in a hurry, signing Valdez is one of very few ways they could still concretely do so. View full article

Image courtesy of John Bonnes The Minnesota Twins and top baseball executive Derek Falvey are parting ways, the team announced to staff in a stunning internal email Friday morning. Falvey, 42, ran baseball operations for Minnesota for nine seasons. The team issued a press release announcing the move shortly after sharing it internally. Falvey began his career with Cleveland, worked his way through a variety of front-office roles, and ultimately rose to assistant general manager. He joined Minnesota in the fall of 2016 as the Twins’ top baseball decision-maker, with a background built on process, research, and analytics (particularly in regard to pitching) and emphasizing relationships and culture. The Twins hired Falvey to lead a reset after a 103-loss season, and much of his early impact came behind the scenes. Under his leadership, Minnesota invested in technology and information, modernizing how they integrated pro scouting, player development, medical/performance, and research. That foundation helped fuel competitive peaks, including a quick return to the postseason in 2017, and the 2019 breakout, when the Twins won 101 games with their Bomba Squad. These efforts were recognized by Executive Chair Tom Pohlad in the Twins press release. "When he joined the Twins nine years ago, it was, in many ways, a watershed moment for this franchise. His leadership was transformational. He helped modernize every aspect of our baseball operations and led with strong values, intention, and purpose," stated Pohlad. With success came some bold roster bets: signing Josh Donaldson, committing long-term to Byron Buxton, aggressively pursuing Carlos Correa, and trading Luis Arráez for Pablo López. He also developed the pitching pipeline the fans were promised, with somewhat middling results. After the 2023 season, when the Twins snapped their 18-game postseason losing streak, won a Wild Card series, and advanced to the ALDS, the club’s payroll was cut by roughly $30 million. Those reductions have continued, with next year’s payroll currently projected around $100 million, down from roughly $160 million in 2023. With fewer resources, the team’s offseason additions have been modest, and at the most recent trade deadline the Twins pivoted sharply toward shedding salary and stockpiling depth, moving 11 players in total, including Carlos Correa. In this latest phase, Falvey was elevated to President, expanding his responsibilities to include both the baseball and business sides of the operation. He’s held that role amid major organizational turbulence: an effort to sell the franchise, a restructuring of approximately $500 million in team debt, and an ownership transition, with Tom Pohlad succeeding Joe Pohlad as the club’s Executive Chair. His role, his boss, and the franchise's trajectory have changed significantly over the last two years compared with his first seven years with the franchise. "Ownership transitions naturally create moments for reflection and honest dialogue about leadership, vision, and how an organization wants to move forward," wrote Derek Falvey in the team's press release. "Over the past several weeks we had those conversations openly and constructively and ultimately reached a shared understanding that this was the right step both for the organization and for me personally." Those changes were also recognized by Tom Pohlad. "Over the past several weeks, Derek and I had thoughtful and candid conversations about leadership, structure, and the future of the club," Pohlad wrote in the team's press release. "We reached a shared understanding that the needs of the organization are evolving and that a leadership transition is the best way to move forward." Jeremy Zoll, previously Falvey's lieutenant and the general manager, will take over his duties running baseball operations, while Tom Pohlad will become the point person for business operations, which Falvey had taken under his purview in 2024. Falvey is not leaving for another job, or at least that has not been announced. The Twins released a statement saying the two sides "mutually agree to part ways." "On a personal level, I’m looking forward to taking some time to be with my family, reflect and consider what comes next," Falvey wrote in the press release. "I don’t have specific plans yet, but I’m grateful for the experiences I’ve had here and excited about the next chapter when the time is right." Zoll will not get an immediate title bump, but he becomes the new head of baseball operations, which Pohlad said would remain true. Dave St. Peter, who served in that role since 2002, stepped down last March, but has remained with the team as an adviser. It's hard to predict how soon the team will find a suitable candidate for a vacancy that comes at the most unusual point in the baseball calendar. That timing is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the news. It is unusual for any organization to have a leadership vacuum without a transition plan at this critical time of year. For instance, when Dave St. Peter left the Twins, the announcement was made in November 2024, but the move didn't take effect until Opening Day. Tom Pohlad has been leading the organization for just over a month. On the baseball side, the offseason moves are not yet complete. On the business side, the season is ramping up. And while the Twins' press release says that there have been going on for the past several weeks, this change is sudden and seemingly unforeseen. The team is holding a press conference today at 11:15, with Pohlad and Falvey answering questions, though at separate times. Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story indicated the team would begin an immediate search for a new president of baseball operations. During his press conference, a reporter asked Pohlad about that search, and Pohlad corrected the record: Zoll will be in charge of baseball ops. The team is not pursuing a replacemeny for Falvey outside the organization at this time. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images The Twins traded right-handed pitcher Pierson Ohl and infielder Edouard Julien to the Colorado Rockies Wednesday, a source confirmed to Twins Daily. They'll receive minor-league righthander Jace Kaminska in return. Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the deal. Kaminska, 24, was a 10th-round pick out of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2023, and he had an encouraging first season in the minors. He made 17 appearances and posted a 2.78 ERA for Low-A Fresno in 2024, striking out 104 and walking just 12 of the 353 batters he faced. However, he ended that season on the injured list with elbow trouble, and wound up having Tommy John surgery late last March. After missing the entire 2025 campaign, he will also get a slow start to 2026, after which he'll be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. However, he should be safely stashable, and there's a modicum of upside here. Solidly built, Kaminska has been up to 96 mph with his fastball in the past, and he adds a two-plane breaking ball that has flashed average. His changeup lags behind those offerings, but given his rocky professional road so far, it might not matter much. His best and quickest path to the majors is as a reliever, and while the Twins are likely to keep him stretched out as he builds back up post-surgery, it wouldn't be surprised if he finishes 2026 as a fast-rising short reliever who can run his heater into the upper 90s. Minnesota found Julien in the 18th round of the 2019 Draft, out of Auburn University. His combination of plate discipline and power got him to the majors with a bit of prospect steam, and his tremendous rookie season in 2023 (a .381 OBP in 408 plate appearances) raised fans’ expectations. He’s been unable to meet them since then, however, with a .208/.299/.324 line in 158 big-league games since the start of 2024. His vulnerability to whiffs caught up to him, and he was unable to recalibrate and correct the passivity of his approach. A poor second baseman, he’s been increasingly pushed toward first base, where his bat doesn’t meet the standard of acceptability for any would-be contender. Ohl, 26, was another late find and player-development win for the team, rising from being a 14th-round pick in the 2021 Draft to pitch 14 times for the Twins in 2025. His changeup is a plus pitch, and has a chance to work even in the thin air of Coors Field. However, his results were ugly in his brief stay in the majors. His 5.10 ERA was a bit unlucky, but it also traced back to too few strikeouts and susceptibility to home runs. Julien has four years of team control remaining, but can’t be optioned to the minors, so he’ll have to stick on the Opening Day roster to stay in the Rockies organization past spring training. Ohl is under control through at least 2031, and can still be sent to the minors if needed. The Twins designated Ohl for assignment when they made the signings of Taylor Rogers and Victor Caratini official Saturday, so only Julien comes off the 40-man roster with this move. Once a player is designated for assignment, almost any trade is worthwhile, because the alternative is to lose the player for the very modest waiver fee. In this case, with the Rockies first in the waiver order, the Twins might have known that the team would claim Ohl, and sought to get a deal done to extract any value they could. Julien was probably not long for the roster, anyway, after the offseason additions of Josh Bell and Victor Caratini (each of whom play at least some first base) and with Kody Clemens serving as a better version of Julien for much of 2025. This is a sad denouement for the French-Canadian Julien, who briefly looked like a piece of the club's long-term puzzle. As they try to finish their offseason strongly, though, the Twins clearly felt they were better off with some extra depth and a clear roster spot for their next move than by letting the decision on Julien wait and losing Ohl for a small amount of cash. Kaminska gives them organizational depth, and they can now focus on making their 40-man a more functional big-league amalgam. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images When the Twins signed catcher Victor Caratini to a two-year deal earlier this month, many wondered what would become of Ryan Jeffers, their incumbent backstop. Jeffers, 28, will be a free agent at the end of this season, and after the fire sale at last year's trade deadline, the possibility of a trade sending him elsewhere felt very real. Alternatively, of course, the team could keep both players, and deploy them in the same exceptionally even timeshare that Jeffers and Christian Vázquez effected over the last three seasons. The major downside to that plan wouldn't even be about performance, but about morale. Jeffers has been forthright about his desire to take on a truer starting role, catching 100 or more games a year, and in the last season before he reaches free agency, that desire has surely never been more urgent. Jeffers made an appearance on Inside Twins, the team's web show, last week, and sounded like a man confident he'll get the opportunity he's been waiting for, without changing teams. New manager Derek Shelton sang the same tune at Friday's Twins media luncheon. "Jeffers is going to be the [starter]," Shelton said. "We've talked to Victor about it. The thing we thought about there is we get a guy we think of as a frontline, as someone who is going to play behind Ryan, but he can also play first; he can also DH. Going into this offseason, I don't think anyone predicted that we would be the [team to sign him]. The fact we were able to add him to our group was extremely exciting." Shelton confirmed that he called and spoke to Jeffers directly, so the assurances Jeffers said he'd gotten appear to have come right from the man who will make out the lineup card. General manager Jeremy Zoll also alluded to Caratini's ability to play first base when discussing the team's interest in him, so ostensibly, the 81/81 split appears to be dead. Caratini can be penciled in for perhaps 60 starts behind the plate, if everyone stays healthy, and will find more at-bats at first base and DH. Jeffers can aim to qualify for the batting title for the first time, after taking 465 and 464 plate appearances in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Everyone can stop asking pointed questions, now. On the other hand: baseball teams lie. They lie to their players, all the time, although not usually as directly as by calling them up to tell them something false. More importantly, they lie to each other and to fans, usually indirectly, using misdirection and/or obfuscation. There are lots of little advantages to be found by being cagey, and no baseball executive (at least none of this generation; Dave Dombrowski is a good reminder that it used to be different) is so eager to be honest as to let any possible edge be dulled. In other words: the Twins still might end up playing Caratini half the time at catcher. It's even more likely, though, that they're going to trade Jeffers, even though they say they aren't. They talked to Caratini about being ok with a backup catching role and filling in elsewhere to round out his playing time, but they also bid $14 million on a two-year deal for (arguably) the second-best catcher who was on the market this winter, despite knowing they have a limited budget. That investment bespeaks a greater commitment than their words do. Caratini is also the second catcher they've proactively acquired this winter, and one way or another, his arrival means the exit of another backstop. The Twins (even more than most teams) can ill afford to carry three catchers, so one of Jeffers and Alex Jackson is a goner. It could certainly be Jackson, who cost very little to acquire and would be easy to dump for a similar return to some team who doesn't find a suitable backup catcher by the end of spring training. Jeffers's looming free agency is hard to ignore, though. The fact that Caratini will be paid more than Jeffers this season is notable, too. Jeffers would net the team a solid return, from any of several teams still looking to figure out that position in a season in which they expect to contend. I doubt that Jeffers, Shelton or even Zoll are consciously lying to reporters about what all involved expect to happen at catcher this year. However, that doesn't mean they're telling the whole truth—and more importantly, the truth is always changing. Jeffers is slated to be the 108-game guy behind the plate for the team in 2026. Within a week, he could well be preparing for the same role with a different team. Three months from now, he could well be muddling through a fourth straight season in a half-time role. Don't assume anything any of the key players in this miniature drama have said is a solid fact. Everyone involved is working with imperfect or fluid information, and that makes them untrustworthy, even if they have no reason to mislead you. View full article

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images There's not a shortage of comps for Brooks Lee's swing. From the left side and from the right, he has roughly 35th-percentile bat speed and a slightly flatter swing plane than the average hitter. Over 60 big-league hitters met those basic criteria last season, from one or both sides of the plate. What's difficult is finding players who swing that way, and are good. Such creatures do exist. I limited a search to the 200 players with the slowest swings (among those with at leat 100 competitive swings from one side of the plate) and looked for those with swing planes as flat as Lee's or flatter, using Baseball Savant's bat tracking data. José Ramírez fits the criteria, from the left side. So does Jose Altuve. So do Brendan Donovan, Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin. Reds sparkplug TJ Friedl and high-average speedster Xavier Edwards are on the list. You can see the pattern. You can probably also see the problem. Last season, Friedl was an above-average hitter, but it was largely due to his 11.8% walk rate and 16 times being hit by pitches. Durbin, too, relied on getting hit by pitches a lot. More importantly, though, all of these guys have good plate discipline, and/or are much better athletes than Lee. In fact, almost the entire list of hitters whose swing speeds and tilt match his are defense-first guys, like Johan Rojas of the Phillies; Nick Allen, now of Houston; DaShawn Keirsey Jr.; and Christian Vázquez. The guys who succeed with swings like the one Lee deploys from each side are hand-eye coordination freaks, have superb approaches, use their legs to beat defenses, or fit all of those descriptors. By contrast, Lee is a below-average baseball athlete. He's stretched at shortstop, and having him play it for a full season in 2026 is likely to both make the Twins' infield more porous and wear him down at the plate. He doesn't throw or run well. Worse, he's not good at controlling the strike zone. He chases pitches outside the zone more than an average batter, and doesn't make much contact when he does. Within the zone, he makes a lot of contact, but it's not optimized. In his first full season in the majors, he hit more balls on the ground and pulled fewer of his flies than in his 2024 stint. What Lee does well is square up the ball, but he gives up too much bat speed to do it, and because his swings are both fairly inefficient, he also has to decide early in order to get the barrel to the hitting zone on time. That leads to too many poor swing decisions for a player whose swing itself can't drive his offensive profile. He needs to make big changes, to increase his bat speed, trading some contact within the zone for more power; and to his approach, to reduce the frequency of bad contact and pitcher-friendly counts. All of that is still at least vaguely possible, because even though he was supposed to be a polished collegiate hitter when the Twins took him in 2022, he's still just 24 years old. He could turn a corner, with a better plan and enough openness to what the Twins recommend to him. Right now, though, it's unfair to expect him to be good in 2026. He batted .236/.285/.370 in 2025, and because real and important weaknesses underpinned that line, we should expect about the same this year, until we see evidence of the major changes he needs to make. Can a team contend for the postseason with a shortstop who posts a .655 OPS? Of course. Any one player on a roster can be (more or less) made up for by another. The Twins don't have the depth to make it very likely that they stay in the race without a breakout from Lee, though. He's not a good defender, and he plays one of the three most important defensive positions on the diamond. Big-league teams aren't chains; they can survive a weak spot in a way a chain can't survive a weak link. Lee is a marked weakness for this team, though, and right now, they haven't surrounded him with enough strength to hide that weakness. They don't have good defenders flanking him on the infield; they don't have the lineup depth to let him hit ninth and forget about him. They need the best version of Lee, which means a major set of physical and mental adjustments and some good luck in the health department. Otherwise, they'll need to pin their hopes on Kaelen Culpepper—but he won't be ready for the majors soon enough to save this season if Lee imperils it. View full article