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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    His best tool being speed doesn't bother me, after all most would say that's Buxton's best tool. My problem is that it's questionable he has other tools. Even if his defense was superb it's not enough for me. They need to have 4-5 tools at the #5 pick because too often one or two of the tools just aren't as great as advertised. If you only have two tools (OK three, but arm strength really goes with defense, no one is considered a great defensive player if their arm stinks) you have to hit on both tools. Elvis Andrus is a speedy defensive guy, but he's not a great hitter and has no power. Had his defense or speed not developed, he'd be a bust, there's just no margin of error with guys with only one or two strong tools and nothing else.
  2. nicksaviking
    Kolek and Gatewood are the two that strike me as having the highest ceilings at this point and that's what I prefer. Still, like the last two years, being the first team to pick a US HS kid has it's drawbacks, specifically being much less able to go after the tough sign HS kids in round two. My heart says high upside HS kid right now, but my brain is hoping for the BPA to be an easy sign college guy. Also, while Hoffman has the profile similar to Jonathan Gray, I think his path appears more like Sean Manaea. Gray didn't move up the rankings until later in the spring, it was Manaea who got the huge boost from the Cape Cod League. I'd think this year's Gray is a lower ranked guy right now. My preseason pick was Michael Cederoth though he didn't fare too well in his first start.
  3. nicksaviking
    And what if some combination of Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco flop and the Twins are willing to go after another bigger named pitcher again next year? If James Shields or Justin Masterson are available and the Twins are already at $90-100 million, the odds the Twins go after them probably decreases a lot. And if not in 2015, what about 2016? I don't want that dead salary on the books in three years.
  4. nicksaviking
    The question is who would you trade though. The Twins don't have much for veterans even if the M's wanted them. The M's need some power but I doubt they'd be interested in Willingham and Plouffe has no value. So you have to go the youngster/prospect route. Hicks stock is down so they'll likely want more than that. Would you give up Arcia? I wouldn't. The M's have catchers and DH's, they wouldn't care for Pinto. The M's just loaded up in free agency so I doubt they want guys who are too far away. That doesn't leave much in the Twins system. I wouldn't give up Meyer, in fact I'd be upset if Ryan didn't hang up the phone upon that request. Would the M's take Hicks and May? Maybe, who knows. I'm not sure I like either middle infielder even that much though.
  5. nicksaviking
    It could mean they're right, or it could mean those scouts want Diaz so they'll use Klaw to spread dis-information. Honestly though, if the Cardinals are interested, I think that should make most clubs interested. They appear to know what they are doing.
  6. nicksaviking
    No thanks on Pentecost. If your picking a bat at #5, I want the best offensive player period. I don't want a qualifying addendum, i.e. "this guy is a really good hitter considering he's a catcher."
  7. nicksaviking
    2/20 wouldn't upset me like a 3 year deal would, but does anyone really think he will come to Minnesota on a two year deal? If he lowers his demands to two years, he will likely get the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees and other high profile coastal cities back in play. And if he lowers his demands on years, he's likely going to raise it on price. In the end the Twins would have to overpay (most likely in years) for a guy who half of us don't trust anyway.
  8. nicksaviking
    Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss says teams other than the Cardinals in talks with Diaz are the Giants, Blue Jays, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Mariners. Doesn't mean the Twins aren't but it's not a great sign. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/joe-strauss/article_48c86ffc-5ca0-5e22-8fb1-6507cb0627ad.html#.UwYNuScE6p4.twitter MLBTR linked the article and they make it sound like those are the only teams in negotiations, but if you read Strauss' article he says those are the teams in negotiations that have more experience than the Cardinals when chasing Cuban talent. The Twins have no recent experience in this area so I suppose if they were also talking to Diaz, Strauss would not have listed them as it was not germaine to his point. That says nothing about how cloak and dagger the Twins are on these matters, would anyone but Diaz and his agent know if the Twins were involved? Looks like a pipedream at this point, but sounds like we'll know the winner soon.
  9. nicksaviking
    Ten million (or possibly $13 million) may be reasonable for this year, but likely not in 2015 or 2016. I'm not sure why you think his splits don't matter. We dwell on his home production from last year because in 2012, his production at home AND on the road was awful. Breaking it down: 2012 Road-Bad 2012 Home-Bad 2013 Road-Bad 2013 Home-Good Why would we focus on the quarter of the time he was good as opposed to the 3/4 of the time he was terrible? I also don't know why people want to continue to use his past, pre-injury data to make a point. Recent data is, and should always be a stronger consideration. His career numbers are not as useful as his recent numbers, why would you pay for them? Jose Valverde only got a minor league deal, so will Johan Santana. Joe Saunders still can't get a job. No one is rushing out to re-sign Manny Rameriz and he wants to still play. Yet somehow the model is different for Drew simply because he plays a position of need?
  10. nicksaviking
    If he wants to come back to Minnesota next year he can. But after he gets traded at the deadline and with the idea that his role will likely be reduced in 2015.
  11. nicksaviking
    Yeah, I was thinking there was a different issue with an authority figure and I thought that figure was the coach. I'm probably wrong, but regardless, he spoke well of the man.
  12. nicksaviking
    But he's almost surely not coming to Minnesota on a two year deal. He's holding out for three and if he has to cave in and settle for two, I doubt it's for flyover country. It never is.
  13. nicksaviking
    He could be a steal and I hope he makes his goal this year of starting the year in full-season ball. Someone may have to correct me, but wasn't one of the knocks on Stephen that he had a dust up or didn't listen to his coach? If I'm remembering that correctly I'm guessing it was overblown considering he posititvely mentioned his coach more than once here.
  14. nicksaviking
    I do have big concerns about Sano's strikeouts, I'd guess aside from the defense, that's likely what most people are concerned with. Still, as mentioned, he's much younger than Springer. Regardless, the discussion wasn't about the Astros passing up Correia for Sano, the discussion was passing up Buxton for Correa and every ranking we've seen this year has Buxton in a class by himself, above Springer, Correa and even our beloved Sano. Still, I wasn't arguing against your point that you liked the Astos draft move, I was just stating that the Astros didn't bypass Buxton because they had Springer, they bypassed him so they could ALSO snag a top prospect like McCullers. I'd rather have Buxton and Berrios than Correa and McCullers, but there's some merrit to the Astros approach even if I'd prefer the Twins to not follow that lead come draft day 2014.
  15. nicksaviking
    Yes, I think his performance last year and the year prior are most likely better comps than his prime years nearly a half decade ago. He's declining, and clearly. You don't really think his fall off a cliff vs. LHP and his huge uptick in strikeouts are a two year abnormality? Using career stats is what got teams into trouble the past two decades. You don't pay a guy for what he DID do, you pay a guy for what you expect him TO do. This is not the same guy that played in AZ. Recent performance is more indicative to future performance than stuff he did 4-5 years ago. I agree, it is embarassing that Florimon is the Twins starting SS, but making a rash decision and throwing 2015 and 2016 payroll down the drain to cover it up is rash. The Twins mistake at SS needs to be fixed with a stronger stratagy, trying to cover it up with a very expensive declining player is simply impulsive.
  16. nicksaviking
    Fair enough, but only if I get to bring it back out every time Drew's benched because a lefty is on the mound or when he's hanging out on the DL.
  17. nicksaviking
    To take out the Fenway Effect, why wouldn't you just look at his road splits from last year? 136 OPS+ at Fenway 94 OPS+ everywhere else He's league average at best away from Fenway. That's not worth $10-13 mill plus a draft pick. Why is it a head scratcher? Everyone acknowledges that Drew is a better player than Florimon at least to some degree. I'll bet you'd even get most of us anti-Drew folks to agree that a one year deal would be just fine because money is not a factor in 2013, but we don't konw if it may be next year, or the year after. None of us want to be on the hook for $20-26 million over the final two years of his contract. He cannot hit lefties, and he was not good away from Fenway, saying nothing about how he can't stay on the field. The Twins are willing to spend money these days it seems, I'd much rather that money earmarked for 2015 and 2016 go to a player who is much less likely to be platooning by then. There will be free agents next year too after all.
  18. nicksaviking
    But of course you don't get to pull your bet back if Sano, Buxton and Meyer end up getting earlier than expected promotions. I'd keep your life savings just where it is to be safe.
  19. nicksaviking
    Springer is far from the prospect that Buxton is, his minor league numbers look good, but I bet anyone would be hard pressed to find a guy who strikes out that much in the minors and still turns out to be a consistant upper echelon player at the MLB level. The guy's going to strike out 220 times a year, maybe 250. However, I don't think the arguement is, or should be, that the Astros passed on Buxton because they had Springer. The argument is that by signing the lesser prospect in Correia they were able to pay him less and were able to also sign Lance McCullers in the second round.
  20. nicksaviking
    Drew won't be getting a QO in two years (and he's looking for three), teams don't want to give up a pick for him now coming off of his least crappy season in three years. He's awful against lefties and he was awful away from Fenway last year. Also the CBA expires after the 2016 season I believe, it almost surely will be reworked as the current QO system isn't working. Who knows what it will look like then.
  21. nicksaviking
    The Twins have plenty of prospects of all caliber, high ceiling is more important in my opinion. High floor/low ceiling is how you end up with the Alex Wimmers and Levi Michaels of the draft world. And interestingly enough, the high floor often ends up being a mirage as it turns out to be just as low as it is for the perceived risky picks. Rare is there a "safe" pick, they all have bust potential, so grab the guy who best can demonstrate star potential.
  22. nicksaviking
    Again, that's conjecture. There is no definitive arguement that a 220 lb guy can't play SS, just past biases. A-rod and Miguel Tejada played at that weight, so does Troy Tulowitzki, they didn't have range issues. The rare middle of the order SS often is a 200+ lb man. He may have to move, but that should be something determined by defensive productivity, not preconcieved ideas about the ideal body type made by bloggers or even scouts. Besides this guy's already got elite power, it's not like he NEEDS to add more bulk to be a power threat.
  23. nicksaviking
    With Seth's projections the only righthanded bench options look to be Darin Mastroianni, Eduardo Escobar and Eric Fryer. I don't think that seems like a smart move. I think Pinto makes the team due to the lack of any reasonable RH bench bats.
  24. nicksaviking
    Gatewood is actually my dark horse pick as the most likely (yet still unlikely) to unseat Rodon as the #1 pick. With his power, I think he has the best chance to become a once a decade hyped HS prospect. People don't think he'll stick at SS, but I've never read anything about him being a questionable defender, it's simply that scouts think he will be too large. I thought we were slowly getting away from the idea that height and weight had to determine your position? This guy is tall and lean, he could add 20 lbs to his 190 lb body and still look like the best athlete on the team. Probably even 30. http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Jacob+Gatewood+Chevrolet+Home+Run+Derby+NYC+DZSf1c-8XFYl.jpg
  25. nicksaviking
    Yes, it's not too early to get excited about this stuff, but it does seem too early to be picking our horses already. There seems to be a lot of Turner love right now. He might be the guy but I agree, we need to see that he at least has some gap-to-gap power. If he's going to be just a slap hitter at the MLB level, his ceiling is going to be Elvis Andrus. Would you take Elvis Andrus at #5? Of course, but that's just his ceiling. Generally the type of floor that comes with solid defensive but little power middle infielder is akin to Pedro Florimon. So if you're drafting Elvis Andrus, you better be positive his defense will be elite and he can get on base at an elite level, because without the power, there is next to no margin of error with these kinds of guys.
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