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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    With the one year deal I'm not really worried about Cruz at all. The worst that can happen is that he doesn't perform, he gets moved to the bench or part-time duty and one of the young hitters gets more ABs. But even with the advanced age, he nearly OPS'd 1.000 last year and hasn't OPS'd under .850 in 8 years. Even with significant regression, it's hard not to see him still being a useable player. As for the new ball, I think it will be more important than ever to load up on the moonshot players like Cruz, Donaldson and Sano. It's guys like Buxton and Polanco who will probably be most impacted.
  2. nicksaviking
    Looks like a right handed Max Muncy. Just kidding, I wouldn't be so bold. Muncy has a better beard.
  3. nicksaviking
    I'm not surprised about the White Sox rankings. Outside of Madrigal, the entire starting lineup might strike out 150 times each. I'm not a PECOTA expert but I suspect those players tend to get devalued due to the higher unpredictability with high strike out totals. I'm not saying all those strikeouts are going to be a huge problem for Chicago on the actual diamond, but I understand why PECOTA might suspect they will.
  4. nicksaviking
    I don't get the Benintendi deal at all. He only has two years left so I don't know why the Royals wanted him, do they expect to compete this year? Also, he's been average at best the past two years and really he's only been an ordinary corner OF his entire career outside of one 3 month stretch in 2018. It's not like his 6.6M arbitration figure is a steal either. The Marlins just signed Adam Duvall for 2M and the Cubs signed Jake Marisnick for 1.5M.
  5. nicksaviking
    Rooker is in the same service time-manipulation boat as Kirilloff, and Rooker was really dang good in his short audition last year. If he ends up getting the opening day spot I don't think there'd be any reason to think anything is amiss. Unless another outfielder of note is added, one of Kirilloff or Rooker absolutely should be on the club, but there's probably only room for one of them.
  6. nicksaviking
    I don't think anyone wants to see them swing a bat though. I'm holding out hope that Jedd Gyorko, Danny Santana or Brock Holt could be brought into the mix in one fashion or another.
  7. nicksaviking
    I think they need a long man in the pen. I think Thorpe stays and isn't in trouble unless a 5th starter is signed and Dobnak takes that roll. I'd hate to lose Thorpe though without giving him an extended look in the pen if he's able to regain his velocity. But if he's still throwing 88-89 MPH, he's probably about done and I don't think the FO should have to think too hard about it.
  8. nicksaviking
    If the Dodgers eat some salary and don't ask for much in return, I'd take Price. He was a guy who definitely needed a year off. My first thought was that Price may prefer to stay with the world champs, but my second thought was that if the Dodgers let it be known that the vet is getting bumped from the rotation for the young guys, well that worked pretty well for the Twins last year.
  9. nicksaviking
    I really thought there was going to be more of a need for a pinch hitter in situations where you only need to put the ball in play. That just is a less common occurrence that it seems it should be. My enthusiasm sure has faded, but if he's going to be the 3rd catcher than I guess I don't really care. I suppose I'd rather have his unique (even if largely unneeded) skillset than carry a Bobby Wilson or Juan Graterol.
  10. nicksaviking
    That was excellent! I get a Beach Boys vibe from that one!
  11. nicksaviking
    I think there’s still going to be a long man in there. Thorpe, or Dobnak if the team grabs another starter. And I think they will. I think they liked the starter depth last year.
  12. nicksaviking
    I’m sure the Twins corner bats will be attractive, but when trading away quality MLB pitching, the seller tends to want to prioritize quality prospect pitching. It would probably be tough for the Twins to snag one of these guys without including Balazovic or Duran, so I think realistically that’s where you have to start with the hypothetical trade packages.
  13. nicksaviking
    I just struggle to get behind Hendricks. He's a soft-tosser and doesn't strike anyone out because he primarily uses that sinker. Sonny Gray used to be on my no-no list but he backs up his sinker with a strong strikeout rate, so I can get behind him.
  14. nicksaviking
    Maybe it's just because he was forced to wear a White Sox uniform, but he looks a bit dejected in that cover photo, which doesn't instill tons of confidence. I much prefer the photo of Colome.
  15. nicksaviking
    Man, I'm just looking forward to a full season's worth of games again so our player evaluations can come with a more confident sample size.
  16. nicksaviking
    I'd take Clippard back, but there are still quite a few interesting relievers available, and I doubt most of them will be getting prohibitive contracts. Just for fun, I'll say they sign Shane Greene to a surprisingly small MLB contract with incentives and Nick Tropeano to a MiLB deal with a spring training invite. I wanted to predict Keone Kela, but with the less than glowing reports on his attitude and behavior, he may not be someone the club has much interest in trying to tame.
  17. nicksaviking
    I hope like last year there's a trade coming for another starter; this team still has too many corner bats and most of them have good to great value. I'd be willing to say a painful farewell to some prospects for a German Marquez or Luis Castillo, neither of whom have contracts the Twins can't still afford to fit into the budget. If there's no trade, I still bet they follow last year's pattern and get an under-the-radar free agent arm or two to add depth and compete with Dobnak. Leake, Samardzjia, Hamels, Cahill, Porcello, Arrieta or Fiers probably will be getting pretty small contracts and would play the Hill and Bailey roll from last year. Of course those moves are always met with mixed reactions. Some fans like to have that depth, others would prefer to just give the 5th spot to someone already on the roster.
  18. nicksaviking
    I'd take Paxton, assuming it's a 1 or 2 year deal. I just don't want Odorizzi if it's going to be 3 years or longer. I just don't think he's that much more likely to be successful than any of the other bounce back arms on the free agent market. I'll do long term deals for the horses at the front of the rotation, but if the team is only going to look at him for five innings a start anyway, I think that can be replicated without the long-term commitment. I'm also probably the only one who'd like Rich Hill back on the cheap, right?
  19. nicksaviking
    Nelson Cruz had an on base percentage of .397 last year. Arraez had an OBP of .364. Donaldson had an OBP of .373. If you're looking for a skill set to equate to runs, it's not going to be on base percentage, at least not entirely. You need to look at the extra base hits. A guy who gets on base at a 40% clip but only gets singles is probably going to score fewer runs than a guy who piles up doubles and HR but only gets on base at a .330 rate. Last year, Sano, Donaldson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cruz, Cave and Jeffers all scored more runs per plate appearance than Arraez.
  20. nicksaviking
    I would have been interested in Ozuna if they kept him in the OF, but if the team was going to tie up the DH spot for him for 3-5 years, I wasn't interested. However, the Twins seem to be looking to improve the defense this offseason so I'd guess they weren't planning on him being in the OF regularly.
  21. nicksaviking
    I'm not in favor of "putting the band back together"; I don't want Odorizzi or Marwin or Romo back. But Cruz was the only usable bat in the post season last year.
  22. nicksaviking
    Why does Arraez need to be in the lineup every day? Arraez had an OPS of .765 last year while Cruz had an OPS of .992. Arraez is fun, we don't see .300 hitters anymore, but he's a pretty one dimensional player.
  23. nicksaviking
    PECOTA is fun, and I really like using math as a predictor. But PECOTA is almost always Bearish on the minor leagures. I don't understand it enough to know how or why, and it's understandable that the guys with the least amount of data would get the uber conservative estimates, but if teams based their rosters off of what PECOTA suggests the young guys will do, there would be about 4 rookies on MLB rosters each year.
  24. nicksaviking
    I read that the White Sox have shown no interest, despite them wanting to spend big and having an opening at DH. It seems really weird that the White Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rays and Astros haven't at least sniffing around. He's not a perfect fit for any of them, but even if they don't truly want him, why aren't they at least trying to make it look like they'd make him work if only to drive up the price on the Twins? If he was on the White Sox, and it looked like the Sox were going to get him back on the cheap, I'd be pretty disappointed if the Twins didn't at least bluff to make sure the Sox paid more than they wanted to.
  25. nicksaviking
    Oh for sure. I wouldn't care to have him if he's staring TJ in the face.
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