ToddlerHarmon

Yes, the number in the title is not an exaggeration. The true odds of the moment we find ourselves in at the close of the Twins 2020 postseason campaign, brief as it was, comes to one in 69 billion. Somewhere in the galaxy, Zaphod Beeblebrox fired up the Improbability drive and Minnesota got caught in the wake.
 
Let's do some math, shall we?
 
Setting a baseline
 
Now, there's a very good chance you've seen the number 262,144 floating around Twins Twitter in the last day or two, and that's because if you were to flip a coin 18 times, the odds of each flip resulting in the same outcome are 262,144:1 against, or 218. Already, this feels bad. This feels unfair. We want to fight against this statistic. BASEBALL GAMES AREN'T COIN FLIPS, I hear you cry out. So many of those games were as underdogs against the almighty Yankees, surely the odds weren't THAT bad?
 
And yeah, from that perspective, you'd be correct. @Awoodruff3 on Twitter looked at the problem from a gambling odds perspective:
 
https://twitter.com/awoodruff3/status/1311415416456085510
 
28,524:1 against! Already, this is 10 times as likely as the coin flip scenario, so the sting should only be a fraction of what we currently feel, right?
 
Sadly, no. Here's how it really breaks down.
 
The Methodology
 
I have gone into the Fangraphs archives for each of the 18 games in the losing streak and made note of the moment in time where the Twins had the highest expected win probability. In 17 of the 18 games, the Twins were favored to win - and in a few cases, extremely favored - before eventually taking the L. With that information, we can look at the odds of losing from these moments where the Twins had the greatest amount of leverage to create a future other than the ones we find ourselves in now.
 

 
October 6th, 2004: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 12th, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


87.3%
 
How'd things look?


With Joe Nathan on the mound for his third inning of work, John Olerud strikes out and the Twins are 2 outs away from taking a 2-0 lead in the series.
 
What happened?


Nathan gives consecutive walks before A-Rod hits a ground rule double, followed by an intentional walk and a Matsui sac fly to win.
 
Odds of a loss


7.87:1 against[/table] 

 
October 8th, 2004: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2nd, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


64.5%
 
How'd things look?


Carlos Silva gets a ground ball out from Bernie Williams. It's still early, but teams in the lead tend to stay in the lead.
 
What happened?


Silva immediately gave up 5 consecutive singles and 3 runs before the 2nd inning was over, and the Twins never saw daylight again.
 
Odds of a 2-game losing streak


22:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2004: ALDS Game 4
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 7, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 4 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


97.0%(!)
 
How'd things look?


A-Rod concludes a 1-2-3 inning in the top of the 7th by fouling out to first base. The Twins have retired 9 straight batters.
 
What happened?


Yankees tie the game in the top of the 8th on an RBI single and a 3-run homer, game goes to extra innings, Yankees take the lead in the 11th, Twins fans begin to wonder if this is the start of something dire. (Narrator: It is.)
 
Odds of a 3-game losing streak


739:1 against[/table] 

 
October 3rd, 2006: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 1, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


58.3%
 
How'd things look?


Luis Castillo leads off for the Twins with a walk. This would be as good as it got.
 
What happened?


Frank Thomas homers to take the lead in the 2nd, and despite the Twins making things interesting in the bottom of the 8th, they would never be favored again.
 
Odds of a 4-game losing streak


1,773:1 against[/table] 

 
October 4th, 2006: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 6, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


57.6%
 
How'd things look?


Down 2, the Twins start the bottom of the 6th with consecutive homers by Cuddy and Morneau to tie the game, and Oakland goes to the bullpen.
 
What happened?


Oakland responds in the 7th with 2 runs off an inside the park home run.
 
Odds of a 5-game losing streak


4,181:1 against[/table] 

 
October 6th, 2006: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2, 0 outs, tie game at Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


56.3%
 
How'd things look?


Morneau opens the 2nd with a double, with Torii Hunter on deck.
 
What happened?


Morneau doesn't score, Oakland opens up a 4-0 lead, and eventually win 8-3.
 
Odds of a 6-game losing streak


9,569:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2009: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 3, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


68.7%
 
How'd things look?


Twins take a 2-0 lead when Joe Mauer scores on a Jorge Posada passed ball
 
What happened?


Yankees immediately tie the game on a Derek Jeter home run, and the Twins never score again. Yankees win 7-2.
 
Odds of a 7-game losing streak


30,571:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2009: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 9, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


91.7%
 
How'd things look?


After the Twins take a 2 run lead in the top of the 8th, the Yankees go down 1-2-3, and Joe Mauer comes to the plate to open the 9th.
 
What happened?


Yankees tie it up in the bottom of the 9th, Joe Mauer hits a double in the 11th that Phil Cuzzi incorrectly rules foul, and settles for a single- only to be followed by 2 consecutive singles that would have scored him had the double stood. Instead, Mauer doesn't score, Yankees walk it off on a Mark Teixeira homer, and just typing out this sentence makes me want to die inside.
 
Odds of an 8-game losing streak


368,333:1 against[/table] 

 
October 11th, 2009: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 7, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


72.6%
 
How'd things look?


The Twins have struck first on an RBI single by Mauer, and the Yankees have responded with a Mark Teixeira groundout.
 
What happened?


Yankees immediately take the lead with home runs by A-Rod and Posada. Twins threaten to tie in the 8th with a leadoff Punto double, but fail to capitalize. Yankees win 4-1.
 
Odds of a 9-game losing streak


1,344,281:1 against[/table] 

 
October 6th, 2010: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 6, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


87.7%
 
How'd things look?


Francisco Liriano has only given up 2 hits to the Yankees, who are down three and open the 6th with a Nick Swisher strikeout.
 
What happened?


The wheels come off moments later as Lirano gives up a double, a wild pitch, 2 singles, and a triple to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. The Twins would later tie it, only to lose 6-4.
 
Odds of a 10-game losing streak


10,929,120:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2010: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 3, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


66.5%
 
How'd things look?


Twins opened the scoring in the 2nd on a Danny Valencia sac fly, and the Yankees go down 1-2-3 in response.
 
What happened?


Yankees would later take a 2-1 lead before Orlando Hudson ties the game with a solo shot, but that tie doesn't last long. Yankees win 5-2.
 
Odds of an 11-game losing streak


32,624,240:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2010: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2, 0 outs, Twins tied at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


50%
 
How'd things look?


This is the only game in the 18-game streak where the Twins were never favored. It remained 50/50 after both teams failed to accomplish anything in the first inning.
 
What happened?


Twins fall behind in the 2nd, and never get close, losing 6-1.
 
Odds of a 12-game losing streak


65,248,481:1 against[/table] 

 
October 3th, 2017: AL Wild Card
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 1, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


81.8%
 
How'd things look?


You remember this inning, right? Twins go into Yankee Stadium and immediately knock Luis Severino out of the game with homers by Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario, followed by an Escobar single and a Kepler double. 3 run lead, 2 men on, only 1 out. We've got this. Yankees don't have a CHANCE.
 
What happened?


Buxton and Castro strike out to end the inning, Ervin Santana gives up the lead on a 3-run homer, Yankees win 8-4, and everyone in my generation starts to develop serious anxiety complexes revolving around who the hell we hurt to cause this.
 
Odds of a 13-game losing streak


358,508,138:1 against[/table] 

 
October 4th, 2019: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 3, 2 out, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


67.1%
 
How'd things look?


Twins were already leading 1-0 when Nelson Cruz comes up big with a solo home run against James Paxton.
 
What happened?


As per usual, Twins lose the lead immediately. They tie things up in the 5th, but that also doesn't last. Twins lose 10-4.
 
Odds of a 14-game losing streak


1,089,690,390:1 against[/table] 

 
October 5th, 2019: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 1, 1 out, Twins tied at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


53.6%
 
How'd things look?


Inexplicably known as the Randy Dobnak game, the Twins were statistically favored for the briefest of moments when a HBP and a single put 2 men on in the first inning with only one out.
 
What happened?


Those baserunners are stranded on a double play, Yankees score first and never look back. Twins lose 8-2.
 
Odds of a 15-game losing streak


2,348,470,670:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2019: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 2, 0 outs, Twins losing by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


62.6%
 
How'd things look?


The only entry on this series where the Twins were favored while losing. Why? The Twins opened the 2nd inning by loading the bases with no outs. This is a scenario where you are highly likely to score multiple runs.
 
What happened?


They didn't.
 
Odds of a 16-game losing streak


6,279,333,342:1 against[/table] 

 
September 29th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 5th, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. Houston
 
Twins Win Probability


78.4%
 
How'd things look?


Twins open the 5th with consecutive walks while already leading.
 
What happened?


Strikeout, pop fly, groundout. Twins twitter immediately fears the worst due to the failure to capitalize, and their fears are proven valid.
 
Odds of a 17-game losing streak


29,070,987,697:1 against[/table] 

 
September 30th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 6th, 0 outs, Twins tied vs. Houston
 
Twins Win Probability


57.9%
 
How'd things look?


After loading the bases in the first inning and still failing to score, the Twins have done very litte. Still, it's a tie game, and the Twins are coming up to bat as slight favorites.
 
What happened?


The bats continued to stay silent, and couldn't overcome a 2-run deficit in the 9th. I cried, and then began writing this article as a coping mechanism.
 
Odds of a 18-game losing streak


69,052,227,309:1 against[/table] 

 
Conclusions
 
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1311406223019790336

The non-injury injuries: why the Twins might have trouble against Houston
 
The Minnesota Twins completed the whirlwind COVID season atop their division. They are a different team than the one that won over 100 games last year, and probably much more likely to make an October run, thanks to improved starting pitching. On paper the Twins are a better team than the Houston Astros this year. From starting pitching to bullpen to lineup, Minnesota is just superior.*
 
But one significant issue could end the Twins’ march into October before it begins: Performance Compromising Injuries, or PCIs.
 
The Twins know all too well how injuries can impact a player’s on-field performance. When Joe Mauer returned to the field after a concussion, he admitted that he didn’t really see the ball as well as before. His K rate escalated; his hitting abilities went from elite to very good. While Mauer’s injury persisted to the end of his career, other maladies are far less debilitating long-term. Still, some short-term injuries can destroy quality performance on the field.
 
Just ask Max Kepler.
 
Last year, he suffered a shoulder issue in September. He “healed” and played all three postseason games against the Yankees. Chances are the lingering issues impacted his playoff at-bats. He ended up hitting 0.00.
 
This year, several Twins look out of sorts in the batter's box, perhaps due to the dreaded PCI. Ball-killer Nelson Cruz has been unable to barrel up pitches over the past month, a month that he’s battled hip pain. Pitches down and away – ones that previously found the right-center field gap or beyond – are now nestling into catchers’ mitts for strikes.
 
If Josh Donaldson plays through calf problems, one can only wonder how much it will affect his swing. Kepler rejoins the list of PCI concerns. Since his groin strain, he has had games where he simply misses inside fastballs.
 
The most significant player who might have a PCI is someone who hasn’t even visited the IR this year: Jorge Polanco. With the exception of a few games, Polanco’s hitting has been off. His power is completely gone this year. Some fans might have forgotten that he underwent ankle surgery in the offseason, a surgery that has led manager Rocco Baldelli to give the shortstop several days off, even during the homestretch. Even when in the lineup, Polanco’s swing looks broken this year. Down and away pitches that in previous years would be rocketed hard to the opposite field are now soft popups. Fastballs down the pipe are high fly balls. And nasty breaking pitches that Polanco would foul off when healthy are missed completely.
 
So, while many fans discuss pitching depth, defensive alignment when analyzing postseason odds, the Twins just need starters to feel comfortable, pain free. Because when the Minnesota baseball team’s PCI is zero, its lineup is lethal.
 
*I will let other pundits comb through the numbers and data on this.

Welcome to What I'm Reading. This is a collection of interesting or insightful articles I’ve read this past week.
 
Behind Nelson Cruz’s Maniacal Preparation:
 
From his Seattle Mariner days but a reminder of how much work the 40-year-old Cruz puts in to maintain his elite level of play.
 

Nap time can vary, but it’s daily. 

“If we play at home, I like to do it after BP,” he said. “If we are on the road, I do it before BP.”
Post nap will include a dip in the cold tub for about five minutes, followed by some time in the warm tub. 

Cruz’s on-field workout is another process. He doesn’t walk into the cage and try to bomb homers. There’s a plan to his batting practice, which includes driving the ball to the opposite field. Sure, by the end, he’s launching balls over the fence at distances his teammates only wish they could reach. 

But he’s become a more complete hitter by showing this discipline in batting practice. Though he rarely plays in the field anymore, Cruz will still take fly balls on most days because he still wants to play in the outfield at some point. He’ll even take ground balls in the infield to keep his body active. 

“It’s fun for me,” he said. 
Kansas City Royals Pitching Development Has Changed:
 

“We’re not going to draft a guy, have them come in and be like, ‘We need to do this, this and this,'” Stetter said. “The biggest thing is, you have to trust your eyes. If a pitch is working, the hitter is going to tell you. The hitter is going to let you know if your stuff is good enough. And if it is, you’re going to keep going with it. And if you get to Double-A and the hitters start hitting it, you’re not getting swings and misses, we’ll know what kind of changes we might make to that pitch to make it better.” 

{snip} 

“A lot of times, if you’re having a guy throw a four-seam, and it’s got a two-seam tilt, it might not always add up that he should be throwing all four-seams,” Stetter said. “There’s some stuff with Rapsodo and Edgertronic camera where we can sit there and make a decision on a guy, where, it might be more beneficial if he throws more two-seams, or it might be beneficial that he throws more four-seams. With new technology, you can tailor it to the guy. Certain grips play better to horizontal-breaking sliders.” 
Joe West Never Missed A Call:
 

"This is what people don't understand: When an umpire has a bad night, he goes back and looks at it," he said. "There has to be a reason you missed the call. Three ways you can miss a call: lack of concentration, lack of positioning, lack of timing. The Denkinger play at first base [in 1985 when the] Cardinals lost the World Series to the Royals. Don Denkinger overhustled on that play. He took himself out of position to see that play. Is that a bad thing that he hustled? No. But he put himself in the wrong spot. He's one of the best umpires the American League has ever had. He's remembered for that call. That's not fair. There's no batting average for performance for an umpire. They grade you, yes. But when you miss some, you can't go out and hit a homer. You have no recourse to get that back." 
99-Year-Old Roger Angell On Modern Baseball Statistics:
 

I think some of the new stats are useful. Good baseball played by Major Leaguers is so far beyond us—it’s the hardest game in the world to play well. And what underlies [the stat revolution] is, I think, a conscious and effective way to get some of this back, to say, “We know better. We know what the batters are doing. They don’t know what they’re doing.” It’s understandable, but it doesn’t add to the joy of the game for me. I’m not very statistical by nature, so I could be wrong about this. And I know a lot of people now use these stats and talk about them with interest. But also, it’s part of the huge alteration of the game itself. People tilting their swings and swinging for homers and striking out in huge numbers. This is a gigantic change in the game. I think home runs are OK, but on the whole, I prefer a triple. 
Are We Teaching Wrong?

Mr. Hirsch also takes issue with grade schools’ focus on “skills.” Whether it is imparting “critical thinking skills,” “communication skills” or “problem-solving skills,” he says such instruction is a waste of time in the absence of specific knowledge. He describes the findings of the National Academy of Sciences on the subject of the “domain specificity of human skills.” What this means, he explains in the new book, “is that being good at tennis does not make you good at golf or soccer. You may be a talented person with great hand-eye coordination—and indeed there are native general abilities that can be nurtured in different ways—but being a first-class swimmer will not make a person good at hockey.” 

He cites the “baseball study,” conducted by researchers at Marquette University in the 1980s, which found that kids who knew more about how baseball was played performed better when answering questions about a text on baseball than those who didn’t understand the game—regardless of their reading level. The conventional response in education circles is that standardized tests are unfair because some kids are exposed to more specific knowledge than others. In Mr. Hirsch’s view that’s precisely why children should be exposed to more content: Educators “simply haven’t faced up to their duty to provide a coherent sequence of knowledge to children.” 
What I'm Listening To (Spotify Playlist)
 
What I'm Listening To (Podcast Recommendation)

Everyone has seen the movie, “The Blind Side,” right? While we’re not going to get into the plot, it chronicles the life of Michael Oher, a former NFL lineman. He’s nicknamed “Big Mike” and his persona is one of a steadying calmness. After watching Michael Pineda come through for the Twins yet again last night, is there any other way to attribute his own “Big Mike” moniker?
 
Following a nightmarish start to one of their biggest series of the year, Rocco Baldelli’s Twins were searching for answers. Rich Hill was bad, the bullpen was taxed, and a demoralizing loss was hung on them by the rival Chicago White Sox. Pitching for the first time in nearly a full year, the former Yankee was ready to take the ball.
 
Pineda was suspended under PED violations for using a diuretic intended to help lose weight. Because he was able to prove the usage was for weight loss and not an intention to mask PED usage, the suspension was reduced. Minnesota brought him back on a two-year deal knowing they’d be without him for roughly the first third of 2020. As the season was shortened to 60 games, the time off turned into what amounted to half of the season.
 
As is the case with all players not currently on an active 28-man roster, but still in the 60-man player pool, Pineda got his work in at Minnesota’s alternate site. He ramped up to an ability that would’ve allowed for 80-100 pitches in his debut per manager Rocco Baldelli. Big Mike’s calming presence was going to be allowed to show itself, but would it?
 
Coming off Tommy John surgery and having not pitched in a Major League game since 2017, Pineda owned a 6.21 ERA through his first six turns last year. By his 11th start things started trending up as the ERA dropped to 5.34. By the end of June, through 16 starts, Pineda owned a 4.78 ERA and then he turned it up a notch. Over his final 10 starts in 2019, Pineda was Minnesota’s best pitcher. He owned a 2.88 ERA and allowed just a .666 OPS against. Had it not been for the suspension, he was squarely in the conversation to be the Twins game 1 starter in the ALDS.
 
Despite having ramped up and faced other batters for a couple of months in St. Paul, Pineda remained a question mark before last night. When he showed up on the mound to face one of baseball’s most difficult lineups, all he did was efficiently shove.
 
Chicago got two first inning runs thanks in part to miscommunication by Miguel Sano and Ildemaro Vargas on the right side of the infield. From there though, Pineda went untouched. Scattering six hits across six innings, he fanned four while walking one and generating plenty of swinging strikes. He topped out at 94 mph, after averaging just 92 mph on his fastball a year ago. In a night that Minnesota needed their starter to pick them up, a guy just returning to the team answered the call.
 
There are only 23 games left in the regular season at this point, meaning Pineda will get at most a total of five starts this season. That there’s no training wheels attached, and he can go deep into games remains a big plus. The hope would be that 2019’s slow start was injury related, and the way it finished is how Pineda fares going forward. Should that be the case, there’s another arm in Baldelli’s rotation that’s locked in and not going anywhere.
 
A division title remains an enviable accomplishment even in a bastardized season. However, in a year that everyone will make it to the Postseason, being ready to advance beyond that three-game series out of the gate should be the goal. Big Mike is back and he’s ready to put the Twins on his back, calming presence, and all.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I cannot refuse to play baseball, basketball, hockey, soccer, but I would if I could. I will support those who can, I will stand for the Black Lives Matter and not confuse it with the need to respect all lives. I will always feel a connection with the American Indian and the genocide of that Indian race in our nation. I will sympathize with the racism that affect the Chinese who built our railroads and the Japanese put in prison camps.
 
I grew up in a black neighborhood, I spent time with my relatives on the reservation in Lac Court O'Reilles, WI. To deny racism is to be blind to the world around us. To say that racism exists in only one color of people would be wrong, but the record of treaties broken, of people sold and resold exceeds other stories.
 
I want to trust the police, but they continue to disappoint me. I want to think that we have gone beyond lynching, but it is not acceptable to have white nationalists in uniform using guns instead of ropes.
 
Destruction of property, looting, defacing the cities is not acceptable, but neither is the indignity of those who complain because freeways are blocked, because peaceful people with tears in their eyes deserve our sympathy and understanding.
 
Baseball took half a century to recover from the racism of Cap Anson. It kidded itself that it was the great major league but was it. Who was better? When Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier with Branch Rickey and Larry Doby, it became a flood in the NL and suddenly we had Aaron, Robinson, Mays, Banks, and other great stars giving the NL a period of dominance. It should have been an awakening. The same was true of other sports and the NHL is still in the backwash of history.
 
Sports have always been a measure of our nation and its progress. Despite our racism Jesse Owens in the Berlin Olympics was a great national victory. Louis over Schmeling was a blow to the Nazi claims of superiority. But the Black gloves held skyward in during their medal ceremony in the Olympic Stadium in Mexico City on October 16, 1968, by two African-American athletes, Tommie Smith and John Carlos offended many – it should not have. It was appropriate and is still meaningful.
 
We have let hate stop the progress towards equality. We have let selfish motives block the rights of people easily identified by skin color as different.
 
We should not be moving towards fascism; we should be moving towards compassion. Our nation should not be worshiping guns, but rather the opportunity of equal rights for all and I mean ALL.
 
I am growing old with the candle of hope flickering in the winds of hate that have been unleashed in our nation. Please - is Peace and Love really a bad slogan to live by?

You’ve heard of the Devil being in the details, well finding what advantage the Twins have crafted in 2020 may come from a surprising place, their defense. After finishing 23rd overall in team defense last season, Minnesota currently finds themselves 2nd in 2020.
 
We knew many of the problems from a year ago. Jorge Polanco was not a good defensive shortstop, particularly coming in on the ball. Luis Arraez was stretched going to his right, and the outfield suffered every game Byron Buxton had to miss. Bringing in Josh Donaldson was expected to be a boost for the infield, and a healthy Buck would be a great remedy on the grass. Not all of that has played out though, and yet, here we are.
 
Minnesota has gotten just 7 games from Donaldson in his first year with the club. Despite that, their 14 DRS is 3rd in the big leagues and leads the American League. Byron Buxton has already been worth 6 DRS on his own, and while Polanco has been worth -3 DRS, his 0.7 UZR represents the only positive mark of his entire career. Luis Arraez was worth -8 DRS in just shy of 400 innings during 2019. This year, he’s been worth 2 DRS in 157 frames.
 
This isn’t just an individual player thing though, and it’s clear Minnesota is taking an analytical approach to cutting down base hits. With 322 shifts, or 42.4% this year, Rocco Baldelli’s club ranks 10th in the majors. Last season they shifted just 35.5% of the time. Against righties the Twins are shifting 33% of the time, or virtually the same frequency they did a year ago. Against lefties though, they’ve gone from 36.4% in 2019 to 53.2% in 2020.
 

 
Thinking about configuration, left-handed shifts also bring some interesting possibilities to consider. Miguel Sano is holding down first base for the first time in his career. He’s been caught a couple of time straying to far from the bag. In a shift however, he’s solely responsible for the line. Luis Arraez, who was challenged going up the middle last season, plays a roving right field with Polanco up the middle to his right. Whether it’s Donaldson or Ehire Adrianza at the hot corner, there’s a plus defender standing near the shortstop hole against a lefty.
 
In the outfield, Minnesota again has made tweaks with Byron Buxton. In a recent article for The Athletic Aaron Gleeman talked about how the centerfielder is starting deeper than he ever has. With the ability to come in on virtually anything, this gives him the opportunity to find the wall and remain more in control when playing balls near it. Eddie Rosario looks the part of a healthier left-fielder, and Max Kepler asserted himself as a stalwart while pulling double time last year.
 
Thus far we haven’t seen the Twins offense click on all cylinders, and there hasn’t been a certainty to the entirety of the rotation either. While the bullpen has flashed very well at points, there have been cracks on that front also. If there’s a tried and true narrative for 2020 it’s that this team shows up with the glove. Errors are a dated way to measure success, but from the most basic number the club has committed just two through their first 22 games.
 
Pitching and hitting can go in slumps, but defense is completely mental beyond the overall athleticism needed to compete. Give it to the Twins for being completely locked in there on a nightly basis.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

A friend of mine passed away over the holiday weekend.
 
We had attended high school together, were distant friends through college, and spent two years as roommates back in the cities after that.
 
When we lived together, he was attending culinary school and the roommates would have the benefit of eating food that is normally not accessible to broke post-college kids trying to repay student loans. He would concoct four course meals and we were more than happy to be test subjects.
 
We’d declare it the best thing we’ve ever eaten and he, being his own worst critic, would inform us that it was garbage and would vow to make it better next time.
 
He modeled himself a bit after Anthony Bourdain. He had a beat up copy of Kitchen Confidential that he constantly implored me to read. I never did.
 
Eventually the house split up. We went separate ways and saw each other less. Everyone my age or older likely has friendships like that. I had a growing family and he was launching a culinary career that took him to Central America and Alaska for work.
 
The relationship became just a bi-yearly message to each other on Facebook, randomly sharing a couple inside jokes and stupid obscure pop culture references. We exchanged one just the previous week.
 
He sent a one-liner: What are we going to do about this hand twin thing?
 
It came from a Friends episode we watched years ago. He had an ability to bring groups of people together and our house used to host viewing parties during the final seasons. The line, delivered by Joey Tribbiani in the bathroom of a casino, always cracked us up. Sharing innocuous lines like that over the years just let each other know you were thinking about them.
 
I spent most of Sunday night reflecting on our time. I spoke with another roommate of ours who had moved out of state as well. We shared memories of the years we all lived together.
 
I realized how much baseball fandom can imprint on our lives.
 
He once hosted a weekend-long party at his college house in Duluth. It was epic, as the kids would say. Thinking back to the revelry, I also remember slipping away to see Matt Lawton hit two home runs in Cleveland.
 
Another time he went to visit a girl in New York City. He returned with a small panoramic of the old Yankee Stadium that he got at a secondhand shop because he knew how much I despised the Yankees. I still have that picture and I still hate the Yankees.
 
His family would host gatherings at their cabin in northern Minnesota. They were amazingly hospitable people. His mom legitimately made the best sloppy joes. When my daughter wasn’t even a year old, he invited us for a low-key weekend of boating and bonfires. On the drive home, as my little girl slept in the back, I listened to Johan Santana’s 17-strikeout performance on the radio.
 
When the Twins had a weekend series at Wrigley Field, we ran into each other at the Cubby Bear, the bar across the street from the stadium. We took time to share a Cubby Blue Bomb together, update each other on our current lives, and then went back to the separate group of friends we came with into Chicago.
 
The last time we saw each other in person I was handing off tickets to him before a Twins game.
 
We met at The Depot Tavern and played catch up. His seats were on one side of the ballpark and ours were on the other. We vowed to meet on the concourse or somewhere after the game but neither of us followed through.
 
You are not supposed to live with regrets yet we do. I regret not reaching out more, not making an effort to stay connected. I regret not checking in more frequently to hear about his family, fiancee, and other adventures.
 
Thirty-nine is way too young. You feel like you always have more time: There will be some other opportunity to catch up, there will be some other chance to reconnect, or some other time to say those were amazing memories.
 
Looking back, I admired how he followed his passion. We were just becoming functioning adults and he already knew that he wanted to run kitchens and make people happy through food. Someone shared a video of him teaching a culinary class in a Facebook remembrance, making the room laugh in doing so. In a way he did become a version of Bourdain, traveling the world and experiencing cuisine in parts unknown.
 
Maybe now I’ll listen to him and read that book.

The question I’ve received the most the past few months is why was my original Twitter account suspended.
 
On March 13 I was covering the Twins in Fort Myers on what would be the last normal day before everything in this world went goofy.
 
I awoke at the Twins Daily-rented AirBnB, and immediately checked Twitter on my phone as I am wont to do in case I missed something earth shattering in the six hours since I last peeked in.
 

 
 
Account suspended, it read.
 
I couldn’t pull down the stream to get that satisfying no-clip-scissor-ride-through-wrapping-paper when refreshing a completely new set of tweets on my feed. I couldn’t get that dopamine rush of seeing that someone liked or retweeted some content I had created. I simply got nothing.
 
I flipped over to my Gmail and found this.
 

 
It was a DMCA takedown notice -- removal of video content in which the music was copyrighted, in this case, the song “Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now” by Starship and owned by Sony Entertainment Group.
 
Jfc.
 
I had just moved up my flight to make sure I wasn’t stranded on America’s sweaty jockstrap of an isthmus and now my main portal of information to the outside world was cut.
 
How did this happen?
 
I had started by making Vines --a defunct application that featured seven second video clips that loops-- with game highlights set to Starship’s 1987 hit song. It was a nod to the World Series winning team. The bit became somewhat of a localized hit. Soon, people would tweet at me after big victories, asking for their nightly montage.
 
When the Twins fell flat on their face in 2016, I created a longer lowlight version and it took off. It was a blooper reel set to perfect music for the occasion. A surprising amount of people would thank me for posting them. People affiliated with the team would even reach out. It became an annual tradition.
 
I didn’t get anything out of it other than smug, self-satisfaction that I had contributed just a little bit of joy to this awful, awful world. Now I was being accused of pirating Starship’s music (ok), using it inappropriately (whatever), and had violated Twitter’s rules (yap).
 
While covering the Twins in Florida this spring, I read Stephen Witt’s illuminating book on the music industry, How Music Got Free. It documents the rise of mp3s, Napster, iTunes, and VEVO from the 1980s through today. It reads like the Moneyball of music. Highly recommended.
 
It also helped me understand how we got to the point of suspending accounts like mine.
 
Long ago, in the 1990s, a music executive named Doug Morris was printing money by selling CDs based on one or two hit songs surrounded by unlistenable garbage. Because we could not wait to listen to “Mmmbop” on the radio, we’d slap down $17 to listen to an entire album of dreck.
 
But then Napster showed up and saved us. While illegal, it gave the world a better business model than what Morris was providing.
 
When iTunes and the iPod finally killed CDs, Morris discovered the rising popularity of YouTube and how his grandkids were watching music videos on that site. He then created VEVO, bought a giant catalogue of the music, and in 2007 he sent his lawyers to takedown any videos created using VEVO-owned music.
 
If you posted a video of yourself baking a cake set to 50 Cent's "In Da Club", it was ripped down. No more sampling the goods. If you wanted to hear a song, you either had to pay or listen on a revenue-generating platform.
 
Morris is now the chairman of Sony Entertainment Group. The same outfit that owns the rights to Starship’s song. So you can see how that company would aggressively protect its property.
 
Twitter does not want to run afoul of music’s law dogs like the RIAA or the IFPI -- the enforcement arms of the record companies -- and has a policy that prevents users from posting videos with non-licensed music in it. They even assist in the flagging of potential violators.
 
But it is not always consistent.
 
After The Last Dance aired, an account on Twitter was spawned that showed Michael Jordan rocking out to more contemporary tunes. That account has over 52,000 followers and no takedowns or suspensions.
 
You’ve probably seen numerous videos showing crushing sports moments set to one of the worst songs of all time, Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On”.
 
One account, @TitanicTD, who affixed the song on top of NFL and college football touchdown highlights, was suspended in early 2020. Perhaps not surprisingly, Celine’s ballad is also property of Sony Entertainment Group.
 
While I understood the general rules and risks, I had considered my use of the song protected under the Fair Use guidelines on Twitter.
 
I used a portion of the song, not reposted the entirety. There was no monetary gain for the video, it was non-commercial. I wasn’t attempting to claim ownership.
 
In my mind I was giving life to a lifeless song that was over thirty years old. If I had the ability to access Spotify’s data, I would bet since I began posting the tribute videos, that song’s streaming numbers on the music app probably jumped by the tens. (THE TENS!)
 
The Fair Use act is definitely something that is difficult to argue as it is almost completely subjective and open for interpretation. For some reason I figured Twitter would understand my position. At the very least, I figured they would ask me to delete the video, not suspend my account for months.
 
And there is some legal context for it.
 
In 2008 Universal Music Group, then headed by the aforementioned Morris, issued a DMCA takedown to YouTube for the video of a
. 
The 13-month-old’s mother and video’s creator, Stephanie Lenz, responded to YouTube citing Fair Use and YouTube reinstated the video. Lenz then sued Universal for misrepresentation under the DMCA, hoping to set a precedent against companies going after videos like hers. Ultimately the courts ruled in Lenz’s favor but as the case ascended to higher courts, the two parties eventually settled when the Supreme Court declined to hear the case.
 
Lenz’s video remains posted on YouTube. But even now Twitter users regularly receive DMCA takedowns for videos where music is inadvertently captured in the background at events or weddings. Two months after my suspension, the Star Tribune’s Michael Rand had one of his tweets flagged.
 

https://twitter.com/RandBall/status/1260942572572246016

 
Twitter, however, is cowing to the International Federation of Phonographic Industry (IFPI) and has been aggressively botting users’ feeds to find anything that can be construed as stolen music. According to one article, Twitter’s system has failed to decipher between which music videos are Fair Use and which are actual copyright violations. And numerous users, like Randball above, in early 2020 received temporary suspensions over perceived violations.
 
Over the next few weeks I sent multiple emails to the Twitter copyright department, Twitter itself, and even to Greame Grant, IFPI’s Director of Anti-Piracy. I explained myself, my motivations and said I would never do something so egregious as providing their client with free advertisement again. The only thing I didn’t do was drive to the nearest rural casino to catch Starship on tour and beg the band for forgiveness.
 
I did not receive one response beside the form email Twitter sends out encouraging violators to reach out to the copyright submitter -- in this case IFPI -- in hopes of getting them to retract the takedown request.
 
So that’s what happened to my Twitter account.
 
I was frustrated at the platform. The lack of response. The lack of consistency in punishment. I didn’t want to come back, not until my original account was freed. I did not want to give Twitter the satisfaction of having to rebrand and regrow. Since joining that hot steaming mess in June 2009 I have built a good following, a good brand and even better contacts (one of the worst parts about being suspended is that you cannot access your DMs or followers lists).
 
That’s why I didn’t start tweeting from a new account right away.
 
Plus, you know…[gestures everywhere]...this.
 
Truthfully, given the state of the country and the on-going battle with the coronavirus, I don’t have the utmost confidence that baseball will actually be played come the end of the month. That being said, since the game is moving forward for now and there is some honest-to-goodness baseball happening at Target Field, I’ve come out of the shadows from my other account.
 
I’m ready to talk about baseball again.

We’ve done it, Twins fans. We’ve officially made it to Spring Training! Baseball games at Target Field will be played before we know it.
 
As the team assembles in Ft. Myers, some of the burning questions that will assuredly be asked of Rocco Baldelli are “Who will be hitting leadoff?” or “What will the batting order be?”
 
It’s a fun exercise as a fan because there really seems to be no wrong answer with this team. If Rocco wanted to, he could draw names out of a hat and the 2020 Twins would score some runs. This lineup has no weak spots. Check out this article from Mike Petriello about how deep the Twins are.
 
The 2020 lineup is similar to the ‘19 version except the Twins are getting a full season of Luis Arraez and of course, they added Josh Donaldson.
 
I’ve been calling them the “Bomba Squad 2.0”.
 
No matter how you slice it, the 2020 Twins lineup is downright silly. The definition of #FunToWatch. They have a real opportunity to break their own major league record of 307 bombas hit in 2019.
 
It got me thinking…
 
How does the 2020 Twins lineup potentially compare to one of the most lethal teams of all-time - The 1927 “Murderers’ Row '' New York Yankees?
 
Of course, the ‘27 Yankees are widely considered to be one of the best, if not the best team in baseball history. They won 110 games, a record at the time, and cakewalked their way to a 4-game sweep of the Pirates in the World Series. Four players in the starting lineup ended up in the Hall of Fame: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Tony Lazzeri, and Earle Combs.
 
You might be asking yourself, there’s no way the 2020 team holds a candle to one of the best teams of all-time? Well, it’s potentially closer than you think…
 
1927 Yankees Top 9 Starting Position Players - SLG %
 
C Pat Collins - .418
1B Lou Gehrig - .765*
2B Tony Lazzeri - .482
SS Mark Koenig - .382
3B Joe Dugan - .362
OF Bob Meusel - .510
OF Babe Ruth - .772*
OF Earle Combs - .511
UTIL Ray Morehart - .328
 
*I would like to point out how insane Gehrig and Ruth’s SLG % were. They were #1 and #2 atop the league in 1927. The third highest SLG % that year was Al Simmons at .645. Those poor 1920’s era pitchers...
 
Combined:
 
AB’s: 4217
1B: 874
2B: 253
3B: 85
HR: 152
SLG: .53189
 
2020 Twins Top 9 Starting Position Players - Using ‘19 SLG%
 
C Mitch Garver - .630
1B Miguel Sano - .576
2B Arraez - .439
SS Polanco - .485
3B Donaldson - .521
OF Rosario - .500
OF Buxton - .513
OF Kepler - .519
DH Cruz - .639
 
Combined:
 
AB’s: 4008
1B: 608
2B: 244
3B: 16
HR: 247
SLG: .53193
 


That’s right. The 2020 Twins projected lineup actually out-slugged the 1927 Yankees (by .0004). Granted, the comparison is a little unfair since I am using 2019 stats. Not to mention the ‘27 Yankees performed better than the Twins in many scenarios (OPS, R/G, and AVG). But for this scenario, I choose to ignore that and only focus on the 2020 Twins being better than the 1927 Yankees at something.
 
Speaking of something, SLG % isn’t the only stat that the 2020 Twins had an advantage over the 1927 Yankees.
They also hit more home runs (247 - 152), had more total bases per plate appearance, and had more hitters with an above average OPS relative to the rest of the league.
 
Think about these stats for a second. Who would have thought that entering the 2020 season, we’d be talking about the Twins and Murderers’ Row in the same breath. Imagine telling a Twins fan that after the 100-loss 2016 season.
 
So there you have it. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have slowly constructed one of the most terrifying offenses in the game today, maybe...ever? OK, that might be a stretch. Only time will tell.
 
Here’s to hoping the 2020 “Bomba Squad 2.0” season ends the same way as the Murderers’ Row - with a World Series victory.

Byron Buxton has proven that he will provide multiple wins above replacement, if he stays healthy and hits at an acceptably average level. The bad news is that Buxton failed to stay healthy for the latter half of 2019, limiting what could have been. The great news is that he appeared to be making major swing and philosophy adjustments that may lead to above-average offensive production going forward.
 
The first step was reducing his strikeout rate (K%), that allowed him to have a chance to put more balls in play. While Buxton may never have a strikeout rate below 20%, his 2019 K% of 23.1% decreased by a difference of 22% year-over-year. He also doubled his walk rate (BB%) from his disaster 2018 season, to significantly improve his BB/K ratio to 0.28.
 


If Buxton can continue reducing his strikeout rate (it was over 30% in his first two seasons), and keep his walk rate steady, he will have many more chances to receive more pitches and drive the ball.
Another major problem in the beginning of Buxton's career was watching too many early pitches become established in the strike zone, and he would proceed to flail at the third strike when he was in protect-mode. Pitchers threw nearly the same amount of pitches in the zone from 2018 to 2019, but Buxton continued his 4-year trend of swinging at more of these pitches (Z-Swing%).
 


Buxton's contact of pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%) has remained constant throughout his career at roughly 82%, but that's not a bad thing. If contact is constant, but his trend of an increasing ZSwing% continues, Buxton will continue to increase his total contact events on hittable pitches. More aggression on pitches in the zone also reduces pitcher's counts, and ultimately strikeouts. He's come a long way from watching nearly 40% of pitches in the zone go on by in 2015.
 
Increasing total contact on hittable pitches is swell, but the contact result is what matters in the end. Buxton's balls in play had encouraging results in 2019, establishing a career low in groundball rate (GB%) and a career high in flyball rate (FB%).
 


Our new savior, Josh Donaldson previously said, "...they don't pay you for groundballs. They pay you for doubles, they pay you for homers." Well said, Josh.
 
Buxton clearly took note of this philosophy, but how did he increase his flyball rate?
 
Launch angle. Buxton's average launch angle of 19.5 degrees ranked 17th among all MLB players with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and this also led the team that set the single season home run record.
 


In addition to lifting the ball more often, he was also making stronger contact than ever before. Buxton set career highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage in 2019. He was also above the MLB averages in each of these metrics, becoming a below-the-radar Statcast darling.
 


 
It was an absolute shame Buxton's season ended prematurely, but his trajectory is promising if he can stay on the field. Buxton's changes - reducing his strikeout rate, increasing aggressiveness within the zone, higher launch angle, and harder contact - resulted in a 111 wRC+ for 2019. The path to becoming an above average offensive player has been a long and winding road for Buxton, but he finally arrived after trending in the correct direction for years.

I’m going to dive into blogging here and see where it goes. Sometimes, as a writer, the hardest thing is to come up with an idea that’s worth writing about and that people will actually be interested to read. I expect that to be my struggle, but I’ve got what I think will be an interesting series to kick things off, and maybe that will be the extent of my contributions. Time will tell.
 
In any case, nobody wants to read about me. You want to see what information you can glean about our Twins. Given the rampant discussions on Twitter and on various blogs regarding the state of the Twins’ pitching staff, I thought it would be interesting to do a series on the numbers underlying the starters currently projected to be in the mix for the Twins.
 
While I’m sure others will make starts this season, here are the guys I’m hoping to work my way through for this series:
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Devin Smeltzer
Lewis Thorpe
Randy Dobnak
 
By way of framing the series, I think there are pretty clearly three different groups. The known (but in some cases misunderstood) quantities, the new veterans, and the prospects.
 
When the season starts, we know Pineda and Hill will not be in the rotation, and we know Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey will be (barring injury, of course). That being the case, I decided to start off by diving into the three prospects (a term I’m using loosely, given the MLB experience they got last year), starting with Dobnak.
 
A common question we hear, read, and think to ourselves as we are trying to fall asleep: “Can Randy Dobnak be a key piece of a successful playoff run?” I can cut to the chase and just say the answer is yes, but if you want to know why, go ahead and keep reading the words.
 
Let’s start by looking at Dobnak’s surface-level stats:
28.1 IP – lots and lots of caveats about the small sample
7.31 K/9 – not inspiring, but we will need to take a look at his swinging strike rates
1.59 BB/9 – elite, but let’s see how often he’s really in the strike zone
1.59 ERA – wow, but a lot of this depends on the above
2.90 FIP – also wow
3.77 xFIP – still wow, but we will need to look into his batted ball tendencies because 0.32 HR/9 is the reason for the jump from his FIP to his xFIP.

Okay, so we have a few things to dive into:
Swinging Strike Rates, which are generally highly correlated to K/9
Zone Percentage, which is highly correlated to BB/9
Batted Ball Tendencies, which are going to be a bit more difficult to use to extrapolate, given the small sample.

Getting hitters to swing and miss, and throwing strikes are generally skills the pitcher possesses (or does not), while the results – K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. Fluctuate due to randomness, umpire tendencies, opponents’ skill, etc. (esp in small samples).
 
Here’s what we see for Dobnak on those plate discipline skills:
43.8% of his pitches were in the strike zone
12.9% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike

Putting those numbers into context, 61 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the median pitcher would be the one whose result was 31st among qualified starters. For swinging strike, it turns out that is a couple of familiar names: Jose Berrios and Homer Bailey at 10.8 percent. Looking at zone percentage, there is a three way tie among Jeff Smardzija, Mike Soroka, and Bailey again at 42.6 percent (a bit of a preview of the Bailey post. Hmm). By now you’ve surely noticed that Dobnak’s numbers were markedly above the median.
 
In fact, his zone percentage of 43.8% would have tied him with Zach Eflin for 20th among all qualified starting pitchers, just a tick below Noah Syndergaard at 43.9 percent. His swinging strike rate of 12.9% puts him in a three way tie with Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw, who were tied for 14th among qualified starters. Obviously good company.
 
It gets better. If you look at qualified starters who posted at least a 12.9% swinging strike rate combined with a 43.9% zone percentage – that rare combination of being in the zone and missing bats – here is the list you get for 2019:
Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2%
Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6%
Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2%
Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2%
Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5%
Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1%

Just missed:
Clayton Kershaw
German Marquez
Lance Lynn
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor Bauer
Walker Buehler

Does this mean Dobnak is in the company of these elite aces? Of course not. What it does suggest, though, is that his success was not a fluke. He displayed an elite combination of skills in missing bats (which generates strikeouts) and living in the strike zone (which prevents walks). This suggests that he has considerable upside. He also threw essentially a major league innings load last year – compiling more than 160 innings across 4 levels from High A to the majors. This suggests he’s capable of providing the Twins with volume as well as quality, something that is not always the case for prospect pitchers.
 
There are reasons to be worried, though. The difference between Dobnak’s FIP and his xFIP was driven by an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/FB rate. The lowest HR/FB rate among qualified starters was 9.3%, and given Dobnak’s 42.5% hard hit rate, it’s safe to assume more of those fly balls will reach the seats going forward. That said, if he regresses to the mean in HR/9 and posts 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s obviously a serviceable starting pitcher. And, given that FIP and xFIP were driven by his 7.31 K/9, if those swinging strikes turn that into a 9.00+ K/9, he has considerable upside to deliver a lower ERA.

Last week I wrote a blog titled 127 Feet where I tried to answer the question "Should Miguel Sano play 1B or 3B in 2020?". Well, that question has been answered in a BIG way by the Twins front office with the news of Josh Donaldson signing with the Twins.
 
So, I am repurposing some of the points I made in a prior blog to show the history of slugging, right handed 3B, transitioning to 1B.
 
My focus will be on Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Zimmerman.
 
I will be evaluating them in two different ways:
 
1. Their defensive and offensive metrics in their last season as a full time 3B
2. Their defensive and offensive metrics in their first season as a full time 1B
 
The defensive metrics I am using are a combination of your typical, pre-analytics, back of the baseball card stats, errors and fielding percentage, and more modern metrics like defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR), and UZR/150 which is just that stat scaled to an average number of chances for a season.
*Note: You can find more info on these stats from Fangraphs. I realize they have their limitations ie. UZR doesn’t factor in shifts and is a "relative positional average" compared to the other players in the league at that position, some positions are obviously harder to play than others as is the case here.
 
But nonetheless, this is what we are going to use for this exercise.
 
As a rule of thumb, negative (-) = bad
 
Miguel Cabrera:
 


 
Let’s start with Miguel Cabrera who Sano drew early comparisons to at the beginning of his career.
Cabrera started as a SS with the Marlins but quickly converted to 3B and stuck there until 2008 - his first year in Detroit. He was a full time first basemen until 2011, then the Tigers moved him back to 3B for the 2012 and 2013 seasons (his back-to-back MVP seasons) before ultimately moving him back to 1B for good in 2014.
 
He was never a strong defensive 3B (career -58 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150)
 
Offensively in 2007, his last year on the Marlins, Cabrera was solid, of course, with a .320/.401/.565 and 34 homers.
 
Defensively however, that was a different story.
 
In 1,310.2 innings he committed 23 errors, had a fielding % of .941, -19 DRS, and -5 UZR/150.
In 2008, his age 25 season, he moved to first base full time (for the first time). His metrics relative to his 1B peers were much improved from 3B.
 
In 1,245.2 innings his fielding % was .992, -7 DRS, and a -4.2 UZR/150. Not gold glove worthy but no doubt an improvement from the prior year. Offensively, his stats took a “dip” but he was still a very solid player.
 
Albert Pujols:
 


 
Personally, Fat Albert is one of my favorite baseball players of all time. As I kid, I wore #5 because of him. I know nobody cares - so moving on.
 
Drafted as a 3B in the 13th (!!!) round in 1999, Pujols quickly made his way to the majors making his debut in 2001. He made the Opening Day roster after H.O.F. 1B Mark McGwire said not putting Pujols on the team “would be one of the worst moves of his (Tony LaRussa’s) career”.
 
Pujols is a little odd compared to the rest of the group because the Cardinals never really had a true position for Albert until he moved to 1B full time in 2004. In years 2001 - 2003 he played 3B and LF because the Cardinals had *checks notes* 34 year old Tino Martinez at the first sacker in 2002. So, for the data below I combined his 3B metrics from 01 and 02.
 
In total, he played 96 games, 727.2 innings, committed 16 errors, had a fielding % of .938 and -6.9 UZR/150. (DRS apparently was not tracked prior to ‘03).
 
In his first year at 1B in 2004, his age 24 season, he made the transition flawlessly. In 1,338 innings he had a positive 7 DRS and 3.7 UZR. Offensively, he was a monster winning a silver slugger, finishing top-3 in the MVP voting, and was an All-Star.
 
Pujols of course remained at 1B the rest of his career, picking up Gold Gloves in ‘06 and ‘10 before ultimately limping out the rest of his days as the Angels DH.
 
I think Sano would take even a fraction of Pujols’ career as his ceiling.
 
*Note a couple things about Pujols and Cabrera: They both transitioned from 3B to 1B at relatively young ages. Miguel Sano will be 27 in May, 2020. He will be older than both these players when they made the switch.
 
Ryan Zimmerman:
 


 
Drafted as a 3B, the Nationals first ever pick in a Major League draft was Ryan Zimmerman.
 
He made his Major League debut in the year he was drafted (2005) and played 3B until 2013.
Overall, he was a VERY solid 3B (Gold Glove winner in 2009, if you care about those things) where he posted a positive 52 DRS, and 33.5 UZR for his career in 9925.2 innings. Shoulder injuries led to his downfall.
 
However, we are going to focus on his last year at the position and his subsequent move across the diamond.
In 2013, his aged 28 season, Zimmerman played 1,245.2 innings, committed 21 errors (.945 fielding %), and a -13.7 UZR/150. Offensively, he was solid posting a 124 wRC+ in 633 PA’s. This is all coming off of a shoulder surgery after the 2012 season, mind you.
 
At the end of the 2013 season, he was having injury issues again to the point where 2014 was basically a wash. His spot at the hot corner was taken by a fella by the name of Anthony Rendon. So in 2014, Zimmerman played in LF. It wasn’t until 2015 he took over at 1B.
 
His first year at 1B was solid defensively when he played. He only got into 93 games but played 792.1 innings of 1B, only made 4 errors (.995 fielding percentage), -1 DRS, and -.1 UZR/150 - not bad!
Offensively, he was barely above league average. It wasn’t until 2017 where he returned with authority. Again, keep in mind his health.
 
Overall, a very good transition over to 1B from 3B for Zimmerman.
 
Edwin Encarnacion:
 


 
Last on this list is the parrot-keeper himself, Edwin Encarnacion. Edwin has had an interesting career to say the least. People forget he started as a 3B (albeit a butcher of one, more on that in a minute).
 
Edwin was drafted in the 9th round by the Reds in the year 2000 as a 3B. Does anyone know who the Twins selected #2 overall that year? Bonus points if you do. It was Twins legend, Adam Johnson (who?) Adam Wainwright and Chase Utley were taken later in the first round. Sorry to pour salt in the wound...
 
He played there through his 2010 season, his first full one on the Blue Jays. I think they said, uh, yeah, I’ve seen enough.
 
In 95 games, 841.2 innings he made 18 (!!) errors. But somehow *only* posted -4 DRS and a positive .5 UZR/150.
After that he pretty much was positioned as a part-time DH and 1B.
 
His first “full” year at 1B was in 2012, his aged 29 season, when he broke out offensively. He played 68 games at first, 583.1 innings and was serviceable despite a -9.2 UZR/150. Note, it is tough to use this stat for less than a full season’s worth of data.
 
For his career at 1B he played 4,170 innings from 2011 - 2019 and was not awful with -20 DRS across all years and a -3.8 UZR/150.
 
Comparatively, his 3B career numbers (hold your laughs) were -52 DRS, -48.4 UZR, and 114 errors across 5,751.2 innings. He was much better defensively relative to the 1B in the league than 3B.
 
Miguel Sano:
 


 
Now, you probably are wondering, how does Miguel Sano compare to these players? Here you go.
 
Across 91 games in 2019 at 3B, Sano committed 17 errors (.926 fielding percentage), -5 DRS, and a -19.9 UZR/150.
 
Additionally, I looked at Sano’s career defensive metrics at 1B. Again, SUPER small sample size. He’s played 233 innings there, -2 DRS, and a -5.3 UZR/150. That is without dedicating 100% of his focus to the position. From his press conference yesterday, he said he is committed to play wherever the Twins put him. Now, that position is 1B
 
https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1217254719078518784?s=20
 
Sano is young and athletic enough where there is hope that he should be able to transition into an average defensive 1B relative to the rest of the league. It helps he has spent some time there. It's not a completely new position like him playing RF in 2016 (gasps).
 
In every scenario listed above, each player was a better 1B than 3B relative to their peers at those respective positions. Fans should not worry too much about Sano as there is no doubt Donaldson at 3B and Sano at 1B upgrades the entire Twins infield for 2020 and beyond.

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series.
 
Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming to the plate and in comes Matt Barnes. It is time to pinch hit with a left handed batter or so I thought. They have Polanco and Wade on the bench. They also have Astudillo. Astudillo? Why Astudillo? Kepler is up next. Let's get someone on base. Polanco or Wade must be a better choice. I was certain.
 
Astudillo slaps a single to right field for the Twins second and last hit of the game. The Twins hold on to win 2-1. Lucky decision on Baldelli's part I muttered. The moment stuck with me though. I wondered... "When does Baldelli choose to use Astudillo?"
 
With the help of Baseball Prospectus I looked to the quality of opposing pitcher for each Twin hitter with over 100 PAs. We have heard that the line ups are well thought out and planned. Maybe some hitters have faced a more difficult set of pitchers by design.
 
Not surprisingly the typical pitcher faced profile for a Twin hitter is Polanco. He plays the most. The opposing pitchers he has faced have allowed a .770 OPS resulting in a 105 oppRPA+. More than half of the Twin hitters bunch in the interquartile range of 104-106. Only one Twin batter has faced better than league average opposing pitching this year with a 99 oppRPA+. Willians Astudillo. Astudillo's 746 oppOPS is two standard deviations away from the typical opposing pitcher faced. I don't think this happens by accident or randomly. Baldelli must either be choosing to play Astudillo against more difficult pitching or at least choosing to rest players against a more difficult pitcher.
 
If you are still reading and curious the Twin closest to Astudillo is Arraez at .751 and the only other Twin more than a standard deviation away in this direction. There are two Twins on the opposite end though not near as far from center as Astudillo. Marwin Gonzalez (.779) and Byron Buxton (.781) have seen the pitchers who have given up the highest OPS to the hitters they have faced.
 
Does this or should this give us a different impression on Astudillo's performance at the plate this year?

Also posted a link in the forums here.
https://twitter.com/BombazoMLB/status/1160032536761909248?s=20
https://twitter.com/BombazoMLB/status/1160034261992443905?s=20
https://twitter.com/BombazoMLB/status/1160035921393332224?s=20
https://twitter.com/BombazoMLB/status/1160235495957381120?s=20

The state of hockey has met the city of baseball. This spring at CHS Field, home of the St. Paul Saints, heralded the opening of a new museum devoted to the history of the great American game in the capital city. In a 2,000 square foot space tucked down the left field line and free to ticket holders during Saints games, fans can learn about the memorable teams and players on the east side of the Twin Cities stretching back more than a century.
 
The museum uses a variety of artifacts and displays to tell the story of St. Paul’s baseball history, from early contests in the late 1800’s to its crosstown rivalry with the Minneapolis Millers to the “new” Saints franchise that started in 1993. It also includes information on the St. Paul Colored Gophers (an early 1900’s black baseball powerhouse) and Toni Stone, a St. Paul native who became one of the only women to play professionally in the Negro Leagues. In one of the displays titled “Brushes With Greatness,” the museum highlights the famous names that appeared at Lexington Park in the 1920’s. When Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig visited in 1927, the duo “spilled nearly a quart of ink autographing baseballs and scorecards for small boys,” according to the Pioneer Press.
 
 
On Monday, July 1, the Halsey Hall chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research will be staffing a booth at CHS Field for the 7:05 pm game against the Lincoln Saltdogs. This game will also feature a historical giveaway as the first 2,000 fans will receive a 1937 Saints replica jersey. Attendees will be able to view the local chapter’s banner, “Beyond the Twins: Hall of Famers in Minnesota,” which highlights famous athletes who played in the North Star State prior to 1960 such as former Saint Roy Campanella, the legendary Dodgers catcher who became the first black player in the American Association. Chapter members will also be on hand to discuss other opportunities to get involved in local baseball history. To buy tickets, please visit the Saints website.

The year was 2017 and the month was August. Byron Buxton had just been shelved since mid-July, entered with a .604 OPS, and was ready to get back on the field. The Minnesota Twins needed a jolt to push towards the playoffs and man did his month of August provide it. A .973 OPS across 29 games ended up vaulting him onto the national scene and he was rewarded with an 18th place finish in the American League MVP voting. Fast forward to 2019 and we’re watching it happen again.
 
Right now, Buxton doesn’t own a .973 OPS, and no 29-game sample size has jumped off the page quite like that final month of summer did. However, it’s what Byron Buxton has done this season that is getting deserved recognition across the sport. He isn’t going to win an MVP award because Mike Trout exists, but behind arguably the greatest player to ever step on the diamond, Buxton is currently the second-best centerfielder in the game.
 
On May 13th Buxton had played 37 games for the Twins and his 17 doubles led all of baseball. He had just one homer, but his .275 average and .806 OPS were plenty promising. This date is significant as it was then that I offered the following thoughts on Twitter:
 

 
We’re now roughly a month out from that Tweet, and things have gone as expected. Buxton’s hard-hit rate since that date is 38.6%. He has jumped the 2% HR/FB rate all the way up to 25% and has six dingers. He still leads the American League with 21 doubles (trailing only Josh Bell’s 25 across baseball), but the longball is now being incorporated back into his game. I have long believed Buxton won’t hit for average as much as he’ll combine to hit for power. If the .270 sticks, so be it, but the .500+ SLG is exactly what I’d like to see.
 
You already know about the defensive acumen. Buxton leads baseball in Outs Above Average (10) and Actual Catch Percentage (94%). His 9 DRS is third in the big leagues, and his UZR is also off the charts. It’s fair to suggest that, when healthy, he’s the most dynamic player on defense that the sport currently employs.
 
What is great, and maybe less known, is that the offensive outburst looks sustainable. He’s decreased his chase and whiff rates. His contact rate is a career high, and the hard-hit rate is a substantial improvement. The ball is on the ground nearly 10% less than career averages, and he’s not just trying to beat out ground balls as has been previously suggested to him. This is a good hitter that allowing his tools to work and is creating absolute nightmares for opposing pitchers because of it.
 
It really doesn’t matter where he hits in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. I’ve talked about moving him up previously, and something like 6th or 7th seems to make sense. Even if he stays in the 9-hole though, this is a guy that’s settled in and finally comfortable showing off the ability that has been there all along.
 
While he won’t win the MVP award, he’s a top 10 candidate at this point in the season, and even that may be a bit too light.

We are inching closer to Opening Day 2019 and, don’t look now but, current forecasts make it seem plausible that the Twins will be hosting the defending American League (AL) Central Division Champions Cleveland Indians on March 28th at 3:10pm. The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday series will be the only three games of the homestand before they start their first road trip traveling to Kansas City, the new look Phillies, and the Mets of New York.
 
April (12 home, 13 away, 5 off)
Outside of three games versus the Phillies and five games versus the Houston Astros, the Twins have the opportunity to take advantage of an easy schedule in the first full month of the season. This includes a seven-game homestand versus the Tigers and Blue Jays in mid-April and six total games versus the Baltimore Orioles.
 
May (13 home, 15 away, 3 off)
Things get a little tougher in May as their first five games are versus Houston at home (2) and New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium (3). They will face a solid, but not great Angels (6) and Rays (2) team eight times throughout the month and will host the Brewers for two games towards the end of the month. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox are also on the docket and will all be series the Twins really need to win.
 
June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off)
The third month of the year could be a pivotal month for the Twins as 16 of their 27 games come against division foes, and only three of those games are versus the Indians in Cleveland. That said, five games against the Rays and three games against the Red Sox at Target Field will be a challenge and, specifically with the Rays, could have Wild Card tiebreaker implications down the road.
 
July (12 home, 12 away, 7 off)
July will be another important month for the Twins as 13 of their games will be against teams who will likely be in the thick of the developing playoff race. Ten of those aforementioned games will be immediately following the All-Star Break in Cleveland for three games and hosting the A’s and Yankees for seven games. If they struggle during that stretch, then they have the opportunity of playing the White Sox and Marlins to end the month.
 
August (16 home, 12 away, 3 off)
The “dog days of summer” will be something the Twins look forward to this season...kind of (see below). They have a tough 10 game homestand where they will face the Braves (3) and Indians (4) followed by two games in Milwaukee. Outside of those nine games, the other 19 will be against teams who are currently projected for 74 wins or less according to Vegas.
 
September (13 home, 14 away, 3 off)
Uf-dah (why does my Grammarly recognize this as a word?). In the months final season, the Twins will have twelve consecutive games against teams who will likely be battling for a playoff spot, including six critical games against the Indians. The other six will be at Fenway and versus the Nationals at home. Unfortunately, these games occur earlier in the month which makes it less likely these teams have clinched anything at that point. This is by far the toughest stretch of the season and it comes during the most important time of the season. I should mention that they end the season with 13 games versus the bottom three teams in the division.
 
Notes of Interest
The longest homestand of the season is ten games versus August 2nd through August 11th versus the Royals, Braves, and Indians.
The longest road trip of the season is 10 games and 12 days, including a day of travel, starting May 29th and going through June 9th versus the Rays, Indians, and Tigers.
There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.
That said, the Twins do have three different stretches of 26 games in 27 days including two such stretches that occur at the beginning and very end of August.
The most difficult stretch of the season was mentioned above, but what should be the easiest stretch of the seasons occurs in the 17 games leading up to the trip to Fenway. Those 17 games will be against the Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers.
 
Notable Promotions - follow the link for full list
March 28th (Opening Day) v. Cleveland - Twins Puffer Vest
April 27th v. Orioles - Twins Plaid Flap Cap
May 24th v. White Sox - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #1
June 15th v. Royals - Joe Mauer Day & No. 7 Baseball Cap
July 19th v. Athletics - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #2
August 3rd v. Royals - Joe Nathan Hall of Fame Bobblehead
August 4th v. Royals - Joe Nathan and Jerry Bell Hall of Fame Pins
August 24th v. Tigers - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #3
September 7th v. Indians - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #4
 
Breaking down a schedule is an interesting exercise. Not that you’re ever going to feel bad for someone making millions of dollars, but you can definitely appreciate how grueling the Major League Baseball season is. What are you looking forward to this upcoming Twins season? Any games or series you have your eye on right away? Let me know if the comments!

Recently I was messing around on MLB.com for no particularly good or suspicious reason when I stumbled upon their top prospects list. Now, we all are familiar with prospects because as Twins fans, they sometimes bring us more hope than the major league team. But even cooler than the updated top prospects list was an archived top prospects list from 2011 that included their top 50 prospects of the year along with top 10 lists for each team. An oh boy does nothing brew my fair-trade espresso like looking back at old prospects lists and chuckling at how their careers actually turned out. Guys like Machado, Harper, and Trout were all in the top 10 and have been excellent so far while guys like Jacob Turner, Martin Perez, and Shelby Miller haven’t quite lived up to their hype. Baseball is a funny game and how good of a prospect a player oftentimes does not correlate to major league success. So buckle in and get ready for some weird nostalgia. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/
 
 

Aaron Hicks


 
I swear on my life that I didn’t plan this, but the news of Aaron Hicks’ new 7-year extension with the Yankees broke earlier this week and basically every part of that sentence just absolutely stings. Hicks was the OG toolsy centerfielder before Buxton was even in the picture and there was a lot to like about his game. Unfortunately, this story doesn’t end too well for us Twins fans; Hicks struggled in the majors for the Twins, was traded to the Yankees after the 2015 season for John Ryan Murphy, then struggled in 2016 for the Yankees before figuring it out in 2017 and is now coming off a fresh 4.9 fWAR season for the Yankees. There really isn’t any way that you can slice that trade that makes it look good for the Twins, but it does hurt a touch less considering how good the Twins OF is even without Hicks. And it makes me feel a little better if I think of it as a Hicks for Moya trade because good Lord, John Ryan Murphy was just awful for the Twins. Terry Ryan should have known not to trust a guy with 3 first names, but here we are. JRM was one of the worst Twins players I had ever seen and the only fond memory I have of him is when he got tossed in Houston after Jerry Layne’s ego got in the way of making a strike 3 call.
 
 

Kyle Gibson


 
What an interesting career Gibson has had so far. Gibby was originally taken as a 1st round college arm in 2009 because the Twins philosophy at the time was “take college pitchers in the 1st to get them here as quick as possible”. Gibby took a little longer than expected due to getting Tommy John surgery late in 2011, but he eventually debuted in 2013. After some solid yet unspectacular seasons in 2014 and 2015, the metaphorical feces hit the fan in 2016 and the first half of 2017 for Gibby as his standard groundball special became obsolete and hitters started to tee off on the poor guy. After being sent to AAA in 2017 and changing how he pitched (along with probably “finding himself” or something equally deep), Gibby started to strike people out and he pitched well in the 2nd half of 2017. All of this led to a full breakout 2018 campaign at the ripe age of 30 for the converted groundball man and he looks to stabilize the rotation again in 2019.
 
 

Miguel Sano


 
Here we have yet another unusual career path because God forbid a Twins prospect develops normally into a quality MLB player without a speed bump or 7 along the way. Sano was one of the few good moves made by Bill Smith as he was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 as a 16-year-old (allegedly, according to Joe Simpson). He mashed through the minors before losing an entire year in 2014 due to Tommy John surgery but skipped AAA the next year and made his MLB debut in 2015. And oh boy did he make a debut. He absolutely mashed to the tune of a 149 wRC+ and was seemingly crushing clutch homers every single night. 2016 was less kind to Sano as he struggled with injuries and dumbassery when the Twins attempted to move him to RF to keep elite third baseman Trevor Plouffe on the roster. 2017 was kinder as he made the All-Star game but still struggled with injuries later in the season. 2018 was just absolutely turrible in the full Charles Barkley sense of the word for him but let’s not dwell on the past. Sano is still around as a 25-year-old (allegedly also to the dude who cares about that kind of thing) with All-Star upside but needs to have a good 2019 year to show that he can stick in the Twins’ future plans.
 
 

Oswaldo Arcia


 
Oh man, Oswaldo Arcia, what a headache this guy was. All the talent in the world but couldn’t make contact, or hit the ball to left field, or field, or run… Really, it isn’t much of a surprise that this guy flamed out. Arcia is pretty much the cookie-cutter bust as he hung around for a few years with meh numbers and was finally DFA’d in 2016 when the team had enough finally. I mean seriously, when you can’t even make the 2016 Twins better, that isn’t a great sign for where you are skill-wise. Arcia bounced around to a number of teams that year and then chilled in Arizona’s minor league system in 2017 before going international to further his career. He was actually supposed to play in the AAA All-Star game in 2017 but didn’t end up going for some reason. I don’t know who would turn down a nice trip to Tacoma, Washington like that. Now we get to watch his brother, Orlando, do things for Milwaukee and then get the cold 1000-yard stare whenever the word “Arcia” is mentioned. Apparently, he signed a contract with a Mexican league team about 2 weeks ago, so that’s neat.
 
 

Joe Benson


 
Y’all remember Joe Benson? This absolute legend has all of 74 major league plate appearances and holds a career wRC+ of 67. Benson was in the minor league system for the Twins for what felt like forever but never really got a major shot until 2011. Ironically enough, Benson lost the starting centerfield job to Aaron Hicks in 2013 during spring training and was placed on waivers later that year to make room for P.J. Walters. Benson bounced around some other minor league teams afterward and was last recorded as signing with the Chicago Dogs in Indy ball. Also, as a fun fact to use whenever at the bar, Benson’s first career hit came off of Max Scherzer, so use that for a pickup line whenever you need.
 
That was not a fun trip down memory lane, but I do think it is necessary for us to check our hype on prospects occasionally. As fans, we always expect the perfect outcomes for them as we envision them as future All-Stars who lock down the team for years to come, but the truth is, they don’t always pan out, and that was a big reason for the Twins struggles in the early Target Field era, the Twins couldn’t develop an actual prospect to save their life. Under the new regime, however, a great number of excellent coaches and modern technologies have been implemented to make sure the next wave of top prospects in Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol, among others can succeed when they hit the majors.

Picture this, I’m sitting in my 1:00 Anthropology class again absolutely bored out of my mind as my professor drones on about, well actually I don’t remember, but I hope it wasn’t important. Anyways, an interesting thought came to me; how did Derek Falvey build the Indians starting pitching staff? This thought came the day after looking at the Fangraphs projections for both Minnesota and Cleveland and realizing that dear God, Cleveland’s starting staff projections are hilariously better than Minnesota’s, even David doesn’t want to take on that Goliath. We can finagle about how much attention the Twins should have given the starting rotation this offseason, but short of signing Dallas Keuchel, trading for Zack Greinke, and then telling Jake Odorizzi to take a hike, the Twins starting staff was always going to be vastly inferior to the Indians. So how did Falvey do it? The man was boasted as the brains behind arguably the strongest rotation in baseball, so let’s dig into how he built it.
 
 
Falvey first joined the Indians as an intern in 2007 and then transitioned to Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 2009. Falvey was then promoted to co-director of Baseball Operations in 2011 where he stayed until becoming the assistant GM in 2016, the same year he joined the Twins as executive vice president and chief baseball officer. Admittedly, Falvey’s role in the Indians front office early on was a bit less important than the one he has now with the Twins, so assigning the reason for these moves directly on him is a bit of a stretch. But at the same time, I think it’s fair to assume that Falvey played a decent role in all of these moves. I also have to appreciate the absurdness of some of the job titles they hand out in teams front offices, I could have made up those positions and you would not have been any wiser.
 
 

Corey Kluber


 
 
Corey Kluber, Cy Young winner, perfect robot, and the destroyer of Twins hitters hopes and dreams himself. This inhuman wrecking machine was obtained in a 3 team trade in 2010 between the Padres, Indians, and Cardinals. The Indians received Kluber, the Cardinals received Nick Greenwood, and the Padres obtained Ryan Ludwick. Nick Greenwood was worth -0.2 rWAR in the 36 innings he threw for the Cardinals while Ryan Ludwick put up a .659 OPS over 2 years with the Padres before being dropped on the Pirates. Oh yeah, and that Corey Kluber guy has done OK for the Indians so far.
 
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how Kluber became what he is now. At the time of the trade, he was just a body in the Padres system and wasn’t even ranked in their top 30 prospect list. He had a career minor league record of 18-24 when traded and was somehow even worse in his first stint with Cleveland’s AAA team. Apparently, he learned how to throw a sinker in 2011 and then won a Cy Young just 3 years later. So take that as a lesson, kids at home, just add one of the best sinkers in MLB and you too can win a Cy Young.
 
It’s a bit of a disappointing conclusion to draw from Kluber, but basically, we can just say that sometimes it’s the guys who aren’t major prospects who can turn into stars. If I had to assign a player for the Twins that would be their “Kluber”, it would Kohl Stewart. Stewart was initially a better prospect than Kluber but fell so far recently that the Twins were perfectly OK with any team taking him for their own during the rule 5 draft. Since then, he worked his way up through the system until he made his MLB debut in 2018 and became a personal favorite Twin of mine. He even features a similar sinker/cutter combo that has made Kluber an unstoppable pitching machine but lacks the true dominating breaking ball that makes Kluber so ridiculous.
 
 

Trevor Bauer


 
 
The most scientific man in baseball was a solid innings eater early in his career until he broke out in 2018 and changed to really, we have to worry about another one of these bastards now? And now we don’t even have Oswaldo Arcia to stop him, such a shame. Bauer was originally the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. But he was actually taken by the D-Backs, in case you forgot. He was acquired by the Indians in yet another 3 team trade, this time in 2012. Bauer went to the Indians along with Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs, while Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson went to the D-Backs, and the Reds received Shin Soo-Choo and Jason Donald. Now, that is way more players than I feel like analyzing, but Cleveland made out pretty well here if I do say so myself.
 
Bauer’s path to the majors is a bit more straightforward, he was a top pick from college and moved as quickly as you would expect a top college arm could move. His status as a prospect was always top and while he was just a good pitcher for a while instead of a great one, he became the true thinking man’s pitcher in 2018 thanks in part to a new slider he developed himself.
 
 
Seems simple enough for the Twins to follow here right? Just use an incredibly high pick on an elite starter that sees the game like few pitchers do and is as dedicated to his craft like I am dedicated to the bagel shop on my campus. The closest comparison I can think of is Jose Berrios, Berrios was also a first round pick who is ridiculously dedicated to improving and has more work ethic in his left pinky than I have in my entire body. While Bauer is the better hurler of a round object at high speeds, Berrios has the kind of talent that even Phil Cuzzi could see and could become even better if Wes Johnson and the boys crack his secret code.
 
 

Mike Clevinger


 
 
The man from Florida who looks like a man from California, Mike was originally taken by the Angels in 2011 before they traded him to Cleveland in 2014 for the guy who sounds more like an extra in “Goodfellas” than a baseball pitcher, Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger actually pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels who are now the affiliate for the Twins. I have nothing else to add to that, I just thought it was neat. This was just about the definition of a throwaway trade at the time it occurred, but oh man should we really hate the Angels for this one. Clevinger went from an ERA over 5 in class A to you have got to be joking me, they have another really good starter now?
 
Clevinger was kind of on people’s radars as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the Angels organization at the start of 2014, but his numbers up to that point were incredibly whelming. Much like Kluber, he was a guy that the Indians saw and thought that maybe with a tweak here and there, he could become something in the future. And credit to Clevinger, he was apparently all ears about doing whatever he had to do to succeed.
 
This is another kind of tough one to draw a conclusion from because “just find a guy who is a few changes that no one else can see away from being elite” isn’t really a good blueprint for success or at least not a consistent one. Considering that I have already forced myself to find comparisons for each guy, I will go with Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ “Clevinger”. Duran is a much better prospect than what Clevinger was but also switched teams in a trade during the season. So far in his short time in Cedar Rapids (hint hint), Duran has dominated hitters and looks to move up to high A Fort Myers soon. I hope he doesn't mind that I now have him pegged as the next Clevinger, no pressure there kid.
 
 

Carlos Carrasco


 
 
The cookie monster was originally taken by the Phillies in 2003 out of Venezuela. In his first spring training, he ate Domino’s pizza every day for 90 straight days because he didn’t know what else to order in English. I don’t know how he did that considering that Domino’s pizza tastes like the cardboard box it comes in, but to each his own I guess. Carrasco was also acquired in 2009 in a trade (I’m noticing a pattern) along with some other forgettable dudes for Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee. Carrasco was the top prospect for the Phillies and was ranked as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America that year.
 
Carrasco’s journey to be who he is now took a while as he struggled with injuries and not being effective early on in his MLB career. Despite starting his MLB career in 2009, it took Carrasco until 2015 to pitch more than 150 innings in a season. The Indians took a very conservative approach by using him out of the bullpen often in 2013 and 2014 after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. After working his arm back up, they unleashed him as a starter and he’s been a pain in the Twins’ ass ever since.
 
Let’s see here, a top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, used out of the bullpen at first… Folks, we already have the next Carrasco here in Fernando Romero. Romero arguably has the nastiest stuff in the Twins system but still needs to learn how to refine his game and be the nightmare pitcher we all know he can be. While it seems that Romero is all but destined for the bullpen in 2019, it could be that the Twins still plan on using him as a starter long term and will be in the rotation in 2020 when more spots become available.
 
 

Shane Bieber


 
 
The Biebs was taken in the 2016 draft which was the very last one Derek Falvey participated in for Cleveland before leaving for the Twin Cities. He was taken in the 4th round out of college and moved pretty quickly due to being a college starter and having some ridiculous minor league numbers (.6 BB/9, 2.24 ERA).
 
The Biebs is a much more simple guy to track here, he was taken by Cleveland and moved up their ranks quickly as he continued to perform well at every level. He rose up prospect lists last year thanks to his incredible command and was a top 100 prospect by most publications by the time he made his debut for the Indians.
 
Who’s the Shane Bieber for the Twins? That’s an interesting one to think of because the front office under Falvey and Levine really haven’t taken many college arms with top picks. This is a bit of a reach, but I’ll pick Blayne Enlow as the Twins’ “Shane Bieber”. Enlow was taken out of high school but was a 3rd round pick partly because the Twins saved enough signing bonus money in the Royce Lewis pick to pay over the slot for Enlow and coax him out of going to the collegiate ranks. While Enlow is still just 19, his projections have received much praise from scouts and being able to handle low A ball as a 19-year-old is pretty impressive. While it will still be a few more years before Enlow probably makes the majors, he could be an important piece in a future Twins rotation.
 
There it is, the 5 pitchers that make up the current Indians’ starting staff and how they got there along with their Twins counterparts. 4 out of the 5 guys were not originally taken by the Indians and 2 out of the 5 guys were never really big prospects at all while the other 3 were. Probably the most interesting thing to note is that none of these guys were big free agent signings or acquired via trade as veterans and only Bauer had any experience pitching at the MLB level for another team. Is it any coincidence that Falvey has been a stickler for adding long term solutions to the starting rotation so far in his tenure? Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez were all obtained with 2 years of team control, but the plan so far has been to shy away from major rotation upgrades in the long term.
 
Looking into 2020, the current rotation is Jose Berrios and possibly Martin Perez if they pick up his option. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are all set to be gone, leaving up to 4 holes to be filled. Looking ahead also, the starting pitchers available in free agency after the 2019 season are very tasty, to say the least. Go take a quick look, you won’t be disappointed. But now that we know what Falvey did to build his most impressive rotation, will the Twins even bother with free agency then? The Cubs built a successful rotation through free agency in their World Series winning team, but I don’t believe the Twins will follow that same route. Instead, they will run with Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Jhoan Duran, and Blayne Enlow, to take them to the World Series and you can bet on that.

Everyday Eddie Guardado has spent a lot of days in the Twins bullpen. Twelve of Guardado's 17 major-league seasons were spent playing for the Twins, and he added an extra four years as their bullpen coach under Paul Molitor's regime until he was let go this past fall.
 
At some point during his first 11 season with the Twins, he picked up the nickname "Everyday Eddie". A quick search shows that the oldest online reference to "Everyday Eddie" is from a March 2001 Peter Gammons article in which he says, mockingly:
 
At the time, the Twins were coming off of four straight 90-loss seasons, so it's hard to fault Gammons for thinking an above-.500 season was laughable. The Twins finished 85-77 that year, proving Gammons wrong, however—despite a very good year from Guardado—the Twins bullpen finished the year with the 5th-worst bullpen ERA.
 
We know that at some point before 2001, "Everday Eddie" took hold as a nickname, and now, nearly a decade removed from his final major-league pitch, we can look back and decide: was that really a fitting nickname?
 
Obviously Guardado didn't literally pitch everyday, it was hyperbole, but the nickname implies a couple of things: 1) he pitched in a lot of games, to the point where it might seem like he has pitched in every game, and 2) he pitched on zero days rest regularly, giving the impression that he was available everyday.
 
But were either of those things true?
 
Let's start with games played. In 1996, Guardado's first full season as a reliever, he appeared in 83 games which was tied for the league-lead with Tigers' reliever and international man of mystery Mike Myers. From 1996 through 2000 (remember, this nickname was established sometime before March of 2001), Guardado appeared in a total of 364 games, the 4th most among pitchers in that span behind Robb Nen, Buddy Groom, and Mike "Voice of Shrek" Myers.
 
That's a lot of appearances. Not the most, but a lot. Considering he played for the same team during during that span, unlike the players ahead of him, and that his "Everyday Eddie" is alliterative, it's reasonable that he'd get this nickname by playing in a bunch of games. And keep in mind, the Twins were abysmal during this stretch, so the fans were likely desperate to latch on to anything.
 
Now let's look at the second possibility: did Everyday Eddie pitch a lot with zero days rest?
 
A quick play index shows that in all of baseball history, Guardado had the 11th most games played on zero days rest among all pitchers. He sits behind three Hall of Famers (Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith, and Trevor Hoffman), some memorable good relievers with long careers (Jesse Orosco, Jose Mesa, and Francisco Rodriguez), and of course Mike "He Keeps Showing Up Like That Killer in the Halloween Movies" Myers.
 
Both are true: Guardado pitched in a lot of games and frequently pitch on zero days rest—he truly earned his "Everyday" nickname (and of course the alliteration really helps). However, I think that it is only fair that he henceforth shall share the nickname with Mike Myers. "Everyday Mike" may not have the same ring to it as "Everyday Eddie", but if anyone complains, they can just zip it.

“Every artist gets asked the question ‘Where do you get your ideas?’ The honest artist answers ‘I steal them.’” - Austin Kleon
 
As Twins fans, we tend to look at roster moves through Twins-colored glasses. We know there are approaches to roster construction and talent acquisition outside of the Falvey/Levine mold and we try our best to keep track of them, but it’s difficult and time-consuming to monitor 29 other rosters for ideas the Twins could adopt. Unfortunately opposing players don’t have “amateur free agent” or “trade acquisition” on their jerseys along with their name and number.
 
The good news, friends, is that your humble author has done the hard work for you. Over the past few weeks I’ve studied the teams that made the 2018 postseason in an effort to better understand to what degree they relied on homegrown talent (i.e. drafted and signed internationally) and external talent (i.e. free agents and trade acquisitions) to reach the postseason. I looked at every player that suited up for these clubs and tracked how they were acquired and how they performed. The results were surprising and fascinating, showing one key area where the Twins have fallen behind - an opportunity they can’t afford to continue to miss if they want to return to the postseason.
 
Before we dive in, a few notes on methodology:

All WAR figures are based on FanGraphs’ WAR formula. If you aren’t a fan of WAR, you may want to turn back now, but you’re reading a baseball site on Super Bowl Sunday so my guess is we’re safe.
The 2019 Twins projections below are FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which are a blend of Steamer’s projection system and playing time estimates by FanGraphs’ staff.
Several types of averages below help summarize the postseason field as a whole, including median, unweighted average (mean) and weighted average. The weighted average favor the clubs that advanced further into the postseason (crediting 19 games for advancing to the World Series, 12 games for advancing to the league championship series, and so forth). So the Red Sox are weighted more heavily in that average than the A’s, for example.
The “Small Market Average” is an average of Cleveland, Oakland, Milwaukee and Colorado, meant to represent the postseason clubs more closely aligned with the Twins’ revenues and spending capabilities.

Okay, let’s get started.
 
Homegrown Talent
 
Any conversation around Minnesota’s underwhelming 2018 starts with the struggles of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, but readers may be surprised by how competitive the Twins’ homegrown core was relative to those of the postseason clubs, even factoring in Buxton and Sano’s struggles. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers:
 


 
In fact, players the Twins drafted or signed as amateur international free agents contributed 19.6 wins to the 2018 club, roughly even with the average playoff team. Among the contending clubs, the Red Sox and Rockies led the way with 23.7 and 23.5 wins respectively from their homegrown talent, while the Brewers managed to lead the National League in wins despite only 3.6 wins’ worth of production from players they’d drafted or signed internationally.
 
Fangraphs projects the Twins’ drafted and international signings to continue to produce at or above the level of a postseason team in 2019, but 2018 showed us that this won’t be enough to take the club to October. So if the Twins maintained pace with baseball’s best in homegrown production and still fell short, where did the eventual postseason clubs pull away?
 
Free Agency
 
The state of free agency has been a hot topic this offseason, and it’s no secret to Twins fans that the free agent market wasn’t kind to their club in 2018. Logan Morrison, Lance Lynn and Addison Reed fall flat, and key free agent investments from previous offseasons Ervin Santana and Jason Castro were non-factors. Let’s take a look at free agent production as compared to the 2018 playoff teams:
 




 
While the Twins got a mere 1.3 wins from players acquired via free agency, playoff teams enjoyed an average of nearly 8 wins apiece. There were outliers even within one division, with the Dodgers needing nearly 14 wins from former free agents to squeak into the postseason while the Rockies needed less than 2 free agent wins to do the same. The NL West race also demonstrates a split in strategy between larger- and smaller-market teams, with the smaller predictably relying less on free agents than their larger-market counterparts.
 
If Twins fans are looking for some good news, it’s unlikely their luck will be nearly as poor in 2019. FanGraphs has rosy projections for former free agents Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Jonathan Schoop, but a return to the postseason will likely hinge on every ounce of the 13.5 wins FanGraphs projects the Twins getting from players acquired in free agency.
 
But here’s where things get interesting, because if the homegrown core still looks promising and the free agent acquisitions appear poised for fairly strong production, there’s only one player acquisition strategy left that jumps off the page as a missed opportunity for the Twins, and if you took a close look at the charts above you may be way ahead of me.
 
The Trade Market
 
While last year’s playoff teams may have had a step up on the Twins in free agency, they absolutely torched the Twins when it came to finding surplus value in the trade market. Let’s take another look at the breakdown of external production:
 




Outside of the trade for Jake Odorizzi, the Twins have been largely absent from the trade market, and it shows when you compare them to the best teams in baseball. Excluding midseason trades, which we’ll omit due to the Twins having very different goals in those trades than the other teams on this list, trade acquisitions contributed only 6.1 wins to the Twins in 2018, and those were largely concentrated between Odorizzi and erstwhile fan favorite Eduardo Escobar.
 
By comparison, 2018’s postseason teams averaged a whopping 17.9 wins from players acquired via trade, again excluding midseason trades. That’s nearly 40% of their production coming from such trades, and the number balloons to nearly 50% when you look at just the smaller market clubs. The A’s and the Indians have written the book on building a small market contender by acing the trade market, with the A’s acquiring over half their 2018 production and the Indians acquiring four of five pieces of a dynamic rotation (all of whom were worth 4 or more WAR) via trade.
 
If there’s one lesson to take from this review of the 2018 postseason field, it’s that effectively leveraging the trade market is critical to building a postseason contender, and the Twins have not kept pace with their competition. Twins fans have seen what can happen when trades go wrong, but we also saw in 2018 the effect that conservative trade activity can have on a club that has eyes on the postseason. Is it time to get out there and make some aggressive moves?

According to Baseball Reference these are the Minnesota Twins hitting coaches - Why there are years without a coach I do not know. But this is what Baseball Reference could tell me about our hitting coaches. These are the men we have entrusted to make our batters better. Did they?
 
 
There are few hitting coaches that make it into the pantheon of greats – Charley Lau was one, but he might not be employable today. Now we want to have the coach communicate the metrics that statistics have called for – launch angle and other details are the language today. So what do we use to review these Twins coaches?
 
 
2017 – 2018 – James Rowson supposedly stolen from the Yankees – can you really steal something from the Yankees if they want to keep them? James did not play in the majors, he played in the minors and the independent leagues with a 193/285/298 minor league slash so he was not hired for his ability to do what he is now teaching. “Rowson served as the Yankees' minor league hitting coordinator for six seasons, joining the Chicago Cubs as their minor league hitting coordinator for the 2012 season. He took over as the hitting coach of the Cubs in June 2012, after Rudy Jaramillo was fired. After the 2013 season, he rejoined the Yankees as their minor league hitting coordinator. Rowson was hired to be the hitting coach for the Minnesota Twins in 2017.” Wiki. The Twins were .251/.316/.421 before he was hired and .250/.318/.405 last year.
 
2013 – 2016 – Tom Brunansky was a Twin favorite and his fourteen year career gave him a .245/.327/.434 personal slash. When he took over the Twins the team slash was 260/.325/.390 and his last year it was .251/.316/.421 which is not a big change except in slugging.
 
2006 – 2012 – Joe Vavra did not come to the majors, but he did make AAA and his slash line is quite respectable - .288/.351/.347 – but not much power. When he came to the Twins their slash line was .259/.323/.391 and when he finished it was 260/.325/.390 which looks like a mirror image.
 
1999 - 2005 – Scott Ullger had a one year debut for his position and hit 190/.247/.241 which is not the most auspicious of lines for a batting coach, but he coached for six years and his team had been .266/.328/.389 when he started and in his last year was .259/.323/.391 which does not look like much of an improvement.
 
1991 – 1998 – Terry Crowley had fifteen big league seasons and hit .250/.345/.375 which was quite respectable. His predecessor at hitting coach had the team finish with .265/.324/.385 and Crowley finished with .266/.328/.389 which is not exactly a big leap forward, but then it has not been for any of the coaches.
 
1986 – 1990 – Tony Oliva was the all star of hitting coaches as far as his own career. He hit .304/.353/.476 which is HOF numbers. As a batting coach his team hit .265/.324/.385 in his final season as coach. The team hit .264/.326/.407 the year before he took the reins. Which means a little less power.
 
Now there is a mystery. Baseball reference lists no hitting coach.
 
1981 – Jim Lemon in 12 big league seasons hit .262/.332/.460 which is a really good career. In his year as hitting coach the team hit .240/.293/.338
 
Once again no hitting coach is listed and in 1976 – Tony Oliva shows up again and the Twins have a slash of 274/.341/.375 so Tony really got them hitting for average.
 
But once again no hitting coach is listed until -
1968 – 1969 – Johnny Goryl who has the team hit 268/.340/.408 in 69 and .237/.299/.350 in 1970 which shows the opposite of improvement in year two.. This was much better than Goryl’s personal six year stats – 225/.305/.371
 
1965 – 1967 – Jim Lemon inherited a team that hit .252/.322/.427 in 1964 and then they went to the world series in 1965, .254/.324 /.399 and he finished .240/.309/.369 which means his teams were worse when he was coach but they went to a world series and won 102, 89, and 91 games during the three years.
 
So who was the best hitting coach? Look at this list of slash lines for the last year of each of the coaches?
 
Jim Lemon .262/.332/.460
Johnny Goryl 268/.340/.408
Designated hitter became part of the team rules.
Tony Oliva 265/.324/.385
Terry Crowley .250/.345/.375
Scott Ullger .259/.323/.391
Joe Vavra 260/.325/.390 ,
Tom Brunansky .251/.316/.421
James Rowson .250/.318/.405
 
 
The range in BA is 250 – 268 and in recent years this has been on the low end; On Base 318 – 345 and the two lowest On base averages were with the most recent; while the slugging was highest in the first years it has ranged from 375 to 460 and the last two hitting coaches have been second and fourth in this stat. It appears that all the strategies of hitting, fielding, pitching keep evening out and the coach is a nice guy to have on the team.
 
Since writing this blog the Athletic came up with this article - https://theathletic.com/774591/2019/01/18/hitting-coach-of-the-future-dillon-lawson-is-here-to-make-yankees-prospects-have-the-best-eye-in-baseball/?source=weeklyemail - about the new wave of hitting coaches and strategies. I believe we are in a strato-matic universe and it comes down to our coaches having better stats than your coaches.

The offseason has been slow thus far for the Twins. The only notable additions have been Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and Ronald Torreyes. There have been some rumblings about Nelson Cruz heading to Minnesota in 2019, but thus far, no notable additions have been made. If the season started today, Minnesota's lineup would look something like this:
 
C: Jason Castro
1B: C.J. Cron
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: Jorge Polanco
3B: Miguel Sanó
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Max Kepler
DH: Tyler Austin
 
Looking up and down that lineup, there are reasons for optimism. There is also plenty of room for concern. There are no sure bets in that lineup. The Twins are hoping for a lot of breakthroughs, and they will need to happen in order for the Twins offense to be competitive in 2019.
 
Jason Castro is not an offensive catcher, but catcher has become a starved offensive position in Major League Baseball. He has a career wRC+ of 92, very similar to his 2017 mark of 93. Castro only played in 19 games last year, so a return to health would be huge for the Twins. That being said, it's far from a guarantee that he will be healthy and productive. Castro could be the first of many coin flips in the Twins lineup next season.
 
C.J. Cron is a solid player who jacked 30 homers for the Rays in 2018 while posting a wRC+ of 122. However, his OBP was pretty low at .323 and his career wRC+ is only 111. It's possible that playing in the AL East boosted his power numbers. Cron is a decent player, but it would be hard to count on him being more than just decent.
 
Jonathan Schoop belted 32 for Baltimore in 2017, but the total dipped to just 21 bombs in 131 games in 2018. The Twins are taking a chance on Schoop, hoping he regains his 2017 form. If this is starting to sound familiar, I promise it's not going to get any better. The Twins are flipping a coin with Schoop, hoping he bounces back and fills the void left by Brian Dozier at Second Base.
 
Jorge Polanco had an underrated half-season in 2018. He put up 1.3 WAR despite missing the first 80 games due to suspension. I believe Polanco may be destined for Second Base in the future, and I don't imagine him being a star offensive player, but for now, he will be close to average at shortstop defensively while putting up a decent OBP (such as the .345 he posted in 2018).
 
Miguel Sanó might be the most frustrating player the Twins have had in recent years. Not just because of his underperformance in 2018, but also due to the continuing questions about his character and drive. It is likely that his poor fitness affected his performance last year. It is difficult to be optimistic about his future with the information we have now.
 
Eddie Rosario was an elite player in the second half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff after that (wRC+ of just 64 in the second half, compared to 137 in the first half, and 127 in the second half of 2017). Hopefully, his dip was due to injuries and he will be ready to go. However, it is not out of the question that he crashed back to earth after about a year of elite production.
 
Byron Buxton is much like Miguel Sanó from the standpoint that they have been counting on him since 2012 to resurrect the franchise. I am not comparing Buxton's character and work-ethic to Sanó's, but I am comparing their importance to the franchise. Buxton has had a calamity of injuries and has struggled to gain any consistency on offense. His defense is never in question, but the career wRC+ of 76 and the piling injuries is legitimate cause for concern now that he is almost four years into his Major League career.
 
Max Kepler has the organization, and fan base, in purgatory almost as much as any other player. We keep waiting. And Waiting. And Waiting. But the breakout hasn't happened. He has a hot streak, like he did to start 2018. Then he sleepwalks. Then he has a miserable month. Then he heats up. Then he sleepwalks again. Kepler isn't going to put up a 147 wRC+ every month (April 2018), but he needs to avoid the 28 wRC+ month (June 2018). Sooner or later, some consistency is necessary.
 
Tyler Austin may be the odd man out if the Twins do land Nelson Cruz, who would be huge for this lineup. It's possible the Twins will find somebody else for 1B/DH anyhow. That being said, if the season started today, it is likely that Austin would get the bulk of the workload at DH. Austin has talent, but he is probably a platoon player at best.
 
I'm not trying to be too much of a cynic, but it is hard to look at the lineup and be too optimistic about everything going right. A lot has to go in the Twins favor for this offense, as it is today, to be competitive in 2019. Falvine has their work cut out for them, time to spend a few bucks (or maybe a few more).

This is not rebuilding - it is prolonged agony. A rebuild from what - an accidental year that got us blown out of the play offs, Since 2010 we have lost 90 or more 5 times. We have been above 500 twice. We have averaged being 22 games behind for the last 8 years. We have seen attendance go down 7 out of 8 years.
 
We have been 4 or 5th place 5 times and second 3 times - does second in the Central count?
 
We have been in limbo or purgatory. Some teams get better when they get worse because of their draft place, but we always have to wait two years - now it is for Lewis and Kiriloff.
 
We rank number 16 in OBP, 19th in Slugging, 18 in OPS - we are 94 in OPS+ and 23rd in HRs, but only 16 in Ks! If you have lots of Ks I thought that the theory was you would have lots of HRs. What did I miss? Of course if you do not hit the long ball - there is always speed - we ranked 28 in SB.
 
So pitching! Here the BP gives us position number 23 in saves. But good news we are up to 16 in Ks! And we rank #20 in ERA+. But maybe we can just keep them off base with ground balls and great fielding - nope. We are #24 in WHIP. Our starters gave us a +2 WAR ranking us 15 - middle of the pack - at least it is better than the rank of #25 in RP WAR (-4.5)
 
In wins above average by position we rank #20 overall at - 6.3 WAR. #18 in total pitching WAR (-2.8) which is brought down by our Bullpem ranking #25 at (-4.7). NOTE THAT ALL THESE RANKINGS ARE FOR MLB, NOT JUST THE AL.
 
In non-pitching we rank number 19. So go around the diamond:
Catcher 16 (-0.6)
1st Base 24 (-1.6) who wanted to bring Mauer back?
2nd Base 21 (-0.7)
SS 24 (0.0) Despite the fact that Eduardo Escobar played there half the year and had 2.2 WAR while he did. What does that say about Polanco?
3B 23 (-0.7)
LF 7 (1.3) There is no minus! Way to go Rosario.
CF 17 (-0.3)
RF 10 (0.3) Not great, but no minus.
DH 27 (-0.8) My god, we can't even get a plus from DH?
 
All of those from Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018.shtml
 
So what are we rebuilding? We have 40% of a rotation, one decent reliever, two OFs who hold their own and a catcher that is improving.
 
Yes I am a skeptic. All our deals, our drafts, our promise has amounted to an 8 year purgatory. Tell the FO to call me when we have at least half of a really good team. In all of MLB we were in 19th place last year, 30 games behind the Red Sox, In AL only we were number 9 and five of the six teams behind us were tanking. Even in just our division we were 13 GB! And Cleveland ranked number 5 in the AL and you know how well they did in the playoffs.

I happened upon this nice leaping stab by Polanco from a few days ago:
 
https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/03/2224124283/1530583378940/asset_2500K.mp4
 
Question: on a ball hit to the left side, does Brian Dozier have anything better to do than make a beeline for second base, on the small chance it's caught and they might try to double off the runner? The runner has to change direction, Dozier could have been close to full speed by that point. Seems like he was napping there.