Darius

Maeda is a pretty good pitcher. But, I think we’re trying really hard to talk ourselves into him being much better than he actually is. I don’t believe the narrative that they shuffled him out to the bullpen to prevent paying a few million in bonuses. The Dodgers throw money around like parade candy. If they thought he was good/durable enough to be an anchor in their rotation, he would’ve been. They thought he was better served and more valuable to the teams chances of winning a World Series from the bullpen. I’ve seen some somewhat alarming home/road splits. The NL West, outside of the Dodgers, hasn’t exactly been filled with offensive powerhouses throughout his career. There are some ballparks in that division that do pitchers a lot of favors. Should we really be that confident that he’s going to stroll in here maintaining some of those peripherals and deliver an ERA in the 3s over 200 innings in a loaded American League? He’ll be a valuable rotation piece. But, he’s not transforming this rotation, and he’s not the “impact guy” to get this team over the hump. He adds depth. Nobody in the Yankees FO is saying, “were in trouble the Twins can counter Cole in game 1 with Maeda.” It’s not like the Dodgers are a team leaving things on the table in terms of starting pitching, either. Some seem convinced that we’ll get an extra gear out of him. They developed guys like Kenley J, Kershaw, and Buehler. They’ve gotten incredible production out of guys like Stripling (and arguably Maeda). What have we done here that makes everyone so confident? Odorizzi? Perez? A few relievers? We haven’t shown to be on the same planet as the Dodgers in terms of pitcher development. Who’s to say they didn’t maximize things, and we’ll actually get less out of him? Sounds like wishful thinking. Although I haven’t been a fan of this move from the beginning (even less so after throwing in Raley and a draft pick), I realize that it does make the team somewhat better right now. It certainly makes them a better regular season team. But, I think the optimism I’ve been seeing in terms of how transformative this move is for the World Series chances is a little over the top. At the end of the day, am I disappointed? Of course not, Donaldson and Maeda is a good offseason. But, people aren’t separating those two moves when evaluating Maeda. Getting Donaldson along with Maeda doesn’t make Maeda any more of an impact pitcher. Honestly, if it were up to me, I’d much rather have paid to acquire Donaldson and Keuchel and keep Graterol and the pick.

Cruz will be with the Twins in some capacity beyond the upcoming year. He’ll probably keep playing and be able to perform. May is going to have a big year and be highly sought after. As you mentioned, he’s probably gone. Not concerned about Hill in any way. Bailey might be a sneaky one here. If he puts together a solid year he may be in line for a nice short-term deal. That’ll be an interesting one to follow. I don’t know what to think of Odorizzi at this point. His history is so up and down that I could easily see him regressing.

Agreed. The Commioner’s office efforts to not allow this to stain his legacy like Selig’s was by steroids is paying dividends. A lot of apologists out there. This is right up there with Shoeless Joe and crew throwing the World Series, IMO.

The sentiment in here that the immunity was justified is hogwash. You don’t pardon capital murder to get details because you’re too sleepy to do the legwork of an investigation. Not to mention, the easiest investigation in the history of investigations. Every square inch of a baseball stadium is likely under surveillance. A guy on Twitter broke it open in an afternoon after work. Mike Fiers knew the whole story and was singing like a canary to the media. Let’s get real, here. There were motives for the immunity beyond some ancillary details, which the commissioners office had no interest in from day 1 (see the “investigations” they performed). Comparing Marwin to Polanco, Cruz, and Pineda is hogwash. The latter did their time. They paid their penance and earned their second chance. That’s how a justice system works. Marwin hasn’t earned anything. He was granted fraudulent immunity. He’s issuing fraudulent apologies at the order of the PR department. Another note on this topic: if Marwin would cheat to this degree, you don’t think he was also using PEDs intermittently in his career? Fans should issue a raucous round boos in his first home at bat at Target Field. These men are a disgrace to baseball. Villains in every sense of the word. I also think Marwin may have let a cat out of the bag a little here. His quote above: “people that were hurt by us doing this and other things.” And other things, huh? Like what? Too bad they already granted everyone on the planet immunity and we’ll never find out.

Lost this deal.

I don’t know about “nightmare.” The Astros running out Verlander, Cole, Grienke was a nightmare. I think the Yankees running out Cole, Severino, Paxton is going to be a nightmare. The Nationals rotation of Sherzer, Strasburg, Corbin is a nightmare. Nobody is losing sleep over the thought of facing Jake Odorizzi for 4 2/3 innings.

Why do you have to set a precedent here? Players have historically been treated differently. Sano, for example, would’ve been jettisoned for behavior/commitment issues a long time if he wasn’t such a monster at the plate. Players get extended at different times for different sized contracts. IMO, “setting a precedent” isn’t really what’s going on here. It certainly is about the money. Let’s be honest. This team is starved for high-end pitching. Our only shot at that going forward is Berrios, at the moment. A gesture of goodwill here could’ve gone a long way, in terms of expressing commitment. Really stupid hill to die on for the FO. The funny thing is that they probably paid more in legal services, FO salaries, overhead, etc. throughout the process than they saved.

I was mostly joking. But, since we’re going down that road, Dyson came out and said something to the effect of “my shoulder has been killing me for years.” No way his medicals were 100% clean. If they were, it was fraudulent.

Why didn’t the Twins do this with Dyson?

“A number 3 starter on most teams” isn’t a number 3 on the shortlist of World Series contenders. The Twins don’t enter the conversation with Maeda. Again, I’m trying not to be too down on the move. But, I just can’t care about another number 3. Probably a good regular season move. Doesn’t accomplish anything in terms of playoff prospects.

This guy is not an “ace.” Flat out. You have to throw more than 150 innings to be put in that department. You have to be able to get a batter out the third time through the lineup to be put in that department. Your swing and miss stuff has to translate to sustaining an ERA under 4.00 to be put in that department. The innings being down in recent years aren’t really a positive, either, because he was worked heavily in Japan (200+ a year) before coming over. Still a ton of miles on that arm. I like Maeda in a vacuum. But, I think the hype train is a little out of control. The Dodgers didn’t think enough of him to start him in the playoffs. That says something, and that’s what the Twins really need. If we’re talking about playoff relievers, I’d rather have Graterol as a 21 year old under team control than a mediocre 30+ year old. If he’s a playoff starter, he’s not good enough to make a difference. Pineda down the stretch last year was better than Maeda, and nobody thinks Pineda is a transcendent lockdown playoff guy. Many are raving about this move a little too much (I’ve heard it referred to as a “fleecing”). I appreciate the aggression, but I’m not sure this is as big a short-term win as some are making it sound. Maeda does not get this team I’ve the hump. Still can’t beat the Yankees in October, IMO. If we’re not gathering pieces to win in October I’d rather keep the 21 year old flamethrower. In order to be in “win now” mode....there has to be some some pitchers on the staff that can be a horse in the playoffs. Overall, I’m not upset about the move. Just doesn’t move the needle. Still like the aggression and, of course, if they still target a legit playoff starter between now and July, the move looks way different.

I hate this deal. Maeda just isn’t that good. He doesn’t throw a ton of innings. He gets some Ks, but has had ERAs north of 4 in the NL 2 of the past 3 years. If we’re looking at WAR (and some other things) Pineda and Bailey we’re both better last year. This guy may not even be in the rotation if Hull gets healthy. The Dodgers thought so highly of him that they didn’t give him any playoff starts in 2019. He’s had struggles and been shuffled back and forth between the rotation and pen multiple times throughout his career. This just isn’t a needle mover, and it cost a guy who, at minimum, looked to be a dominant back end reliever at age 21, who has absolutely carved every level at which he’s spent significant time. Oh, and he’s been clocked at 104. We have enough middle of the road starters. We don’t need one of those. We need a guy who can lock down the Yankees in a playoff game. Come playoff time, we just traded one reliever for a worse reliever.

Of course we should be worried about them. I think a lot of fans are getting a little haughty. Our rotation could be terrible. We’re a season ending injury from Berrios/Odorizzi away from being in big trouble. There’s not guarantee Pineda is the guy we saw last year. Same with Bailey. Hill may never get healthy. On the offensive side, age could catch up with Cruz. Sano and Buxton could continue to struggle with injuries. Garver and Arraez could easily come back down to earth. There are so many variables with this club, it is not a hot take to say we could finish behind the Sox. Last year’s success was beyond a best case scenario. The odds of that happening two years in row are probably slim. The same “best case scenario” that happened for us last year could easily happen for the Sox. They have some legitimate talent beyond their off season acquisitions primed for superstardom (Giolito, Moncada, Anderson, Kopech, Jimenez, even Rodon could be very good). Add those potential breakouts to Grandal, Encarnacion, Abbreu, McCann, Mazara, etc. and things could get scary. I think many Twins fans could be thinking of the Sox the same way Indians fans were thinking of the Twins this time last year.

The rotation certainly isn’t a disaster. But, there’s just nobody that I trust in the playoffs. Berrios and Odorizzi are OK, not great. I don’t feel overly confident about either of the two. The rest have absolutely no business pitching a playoff game. The sad truth is that no team employing Homer Bailey or Michael Pineda as mid-rotation fixtures is going to last very long in the playoffs. If they don’t trade for front-line starter (which they won’t), the team’s only hope is that Berrios somehow takes another step (I don’t think it’s going to happen, its possible), Odorizzi sustains last year’s success (entirely possible) and Rich Hill gets healthy, stays healthy, and deals (nearly impossible). It’ll be a fun season. They’ll score a ton of runs. Unfortunately, I’m already looking forward to next year’s free agent SP crop (Kluber, Bauer, Ray, Tanaka, Paxton) to see if we can serious about a World Series title in 2021.

He’s thrown about 120 innings in the AL in career and has been pretty brutal (ERA in the ballpark of 5.00). In theory, I guess they could get something out of him (Anibal Sanchez comes to mind). I’m certainly my not expecting anything. At the end of the day, if he’s throwing significant innings I think it likely means we’re in trouble. I would’ve rather seen a flier on Walker, but not losing any sleep.

This is a joke right? Because there was way more of this of this in game years ago. You think it’s more honorable to throw at someone’s head and literally risk their life like they used to do back then? I think you’re suffering from some sort of Mandela effect because you’d like to think your generation is superior. Really, the opposite is true.

Just my opinion, you could be right. But, it’s just as likely that Alvarez comes back down to earth without a buzzer on. Or, that he levels off as the league gathers more scouting reports (same argument I make against Arraez continuing to hit .350). That said, I think Cruz is a ticking time bomb. Having the ability to hit the ball is one thing. Cruz can clearly still do that. But, at some point your body just shuts down. Soft tissue and joint injuries pile up and take much longer to heal, no matter the amount of preparation. Interesting conversation.

Considering it’s been proven the Astros have cheated, and the Yankees have been implicated, I’ll take the Twins lineup once things get cleaned up. Yes, the cheating made a difference. If you don’t think so, I don’t know what to tell. Would Altuve stink without cheating? Of course not. But, claiming he would still be as good is just a terrible take. Of course they were wearing buzzers (if you believe Altuve’s “shy” narrative about the his jersey, may the Lord help you out in the real world). The Astros have to be considered a sham until they can show otherwise. Also, it’s really hard for me take the Yankees seriously when they play in that joke of a ballpark. Put Aaron Judge in Target Field and he probably has 10 fewer home runs (a lot of his HRs would get eaten up by that scoreboard in right center). Gleyber Torres is a total fraud and cheater like Altuve, and I’m positive that it’ll come out at some point. Stanton, Judge, and LeMaheiu are legitimate hitters, but that ball park helps them and nobody else in that lineup scares me a whole lot when they’re not cheating. Level the playing field and the Twins have the best lineup in baseball. I’d stack Garver, Cruz, Donaldson, and Sano against anyone in the planet. What’s also lost on some is that the Twins still have room to grow. Buxton could break out offensively. Rosario could go back to his 2017 form. Miguel Sano could rake for the entire season, instead of half. Garver could get more PAs. These other lineups, I feel, have sort of “peaked.” I think the Twins lineup has plenty of room to improve.

I asked that question right after shortly after the scandal broke on this very website.

His numbers are what they are because he swings the bat really damn hard. He’s not getting cheated when he’s ahead in the count. Thus, a lot of swings and misses. He doesn’t have some inherent flaw relative to other MLBers that cause him to swing and miss more. The nature of swing is all or nothing. The numbers make total sense. I’d wager that the same pattern would hold for guys like Killebrew, McGuire, and various other prolific power hitters throughout history. His barrel percentage is high when making contact because he’s also a really damn good hitter, which many seem to refuse to believe. It’s possible to swing and miss a lot and still be a great hitter when you’re taking a certain approach. He’s not just getting by on his strength, which seems to be a prevailing assumption (there are a lot of incredibly strong people in Major League Baseball, newsflash, and nobody hits the ball harder). Case in point, your conclusion of, “the opposite of what the numbers say is true, and he sucks at barreling the ball.....but somehow still hits it harder than everyone in the planet.” That’s not really how a baseball bat works, no matter how strong you are.

Anyone surprised by Miguel Sano’s ranking hasn’t been watching Miguel Sano. Thankfully the FO sees the potential and didn’t want to dump him for nothing like a lot of TD members.

I’m totally fine with starting the season with the staff we have now. But, something has to be done to address via trade or it’ll be a short postseason (assuming they make it, which is certainly no sure thing). Enter Rich Hill and the problem he may cause. I can see a scenario in which the rotation is unspectacularly solid going into July and Hill’s recovery looks great. The front office elects not to target a starter via trade. Rich Hill proceeds to get injured again. It’s my only concern right now after getting the Bringer of Rain.

Personally, I don’t think Sano was as bad at 3B at some people believe/say. I’m also not convinced that some of the advanced stats really tell the whole story. It’s my opinion that we’ll look back at some of these advanced stats in the future and wonder why we used them, similar to looking back at the times when offense was primarily analyzed using batting avg and pitching ERA. So, while advanced stats can be a useful tool, looking at them and saying “this says Sano is the 29th best 3B in baseball, so it must be the case,” is a little silly. Any statistician worth his salt will tell you any output likely isn’t a completely accurate representation of reality, hence the need for regression analysis, error tolerances, etc. In summary, the eye test tells my this guy has some defensive acumen that can be very useful despite the hyperbolic hit takes that get thrown around. Obviously, Donaldson is much better at 3B. No question. Sano should be pushed to 1B and there are a couple discussion points that intrigue me: 1). Some seem to think his throwing arm will become a null asset at 1B. I disagree. The 3-6-3, 3-6-1, 3-2-3, etc. double play arent the easiest plays to make for a 1B, and I think Sano’s arm strength will play well in that scenario. 2). “Scooping” has been brought up. I have to believe after years of fielding hot one-hoppers at third base in practice/games has set up the hand-eye coordination necessary. If he could field his position at the hot corner even remotely well (which he did, despite some belief), I can’t imagine tracking throws to 1B is going to be an issue. I’m the end, as mentioned, it’ll just come down to footwork on the bang-bang plays. Even Mauer struggles with this during his first year. Seeing as Mauer is an all-universe level athlete, that’s where I get a little nervous with Sano. It’ll be interesting to see the progression.

One thing I don’t understand is the players being granted “immunity” over this deal. Are they “immune” from MLB punitive action only? Or, if the Twins, for example, were to cut loose Marwin for his involvement, is that a MLBPA issue (wrongful termination, or something similar)? If I’m the Twins I’m strongly considering letting Marwin go. It’ll likely be talked about relentlessly when he’s at the plate by opposing TV/radio crews. If the Twins succeed in the playoffs and he plays a role it’ll be a topic. Just from a business sense, I want to distance myself from this issue as much as possible. You also get the bonus national PR goodwill from being the first team to take a hard-line on a cheating player. I can see the Twitter reaction now, it’ll certainly trend (“The Twins are now my favorite team,” etc). The sad reality is that Marwin just isn’t good enough to bend over backwards PR-wise to keep him around (we’re not talking George Springer, here). Of course, nobody will want to hear this, but it’s also possible that the team that just shattered the MLB home run record is cheating in a similar manner. Can’t really send Marwin out into the world to add your name to list with the Astros and some others. What a time to be alive.

What’s also interesting is the Astros as a whole had a better road record than home record in 2017. They were pretty darn good at home in 2019, though.