Tom Froemming

You are correct, excuse my ignorance. I remembered that scenario incorrectly and didn't bother to look it up. Polanco had to be added to the 40-man in Nov. 2013 in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, so they would have burned an option year regardless of whether or not he got a call up.

Nope. Other organizations move veterans to make room for their young players. I don't think there's another team in baseball that would have both kept a player like Plouffe and signed Park to obstruct Sano prior to last year. Also, other teams don't unnecessarily burn their prospect's option years. Absolutely no reason Polanco needed to be called up in '14 & '15 to play a combined nine games. If he still had options it would be perfectly acceptable to send him back to Triple-A to start this season. Polanco's still only 23, I think Dozier hadn't even made it to Double-A by that age (obviously college guys and international guys are different, but still).

The most recent rumors suggest the Brian Dozier trade watch will be mercifully coming to an end sometime within the week, one way or another. While there's been plenty of great analysis around potential trades, the fallout of Dozier staying with the Twins could be equally interesting. From just a roster construction standpoint, the immediate question would be what do you do with Jorge Polanco? He's best suited to play second base, and while he wasn't a train wreck at shortstop last season, putting him next to Miguel Sano everyday would give the Twins an infield defense that would give the pitching staff nightmares. Neither player has appropriate range for his position. Putting them on the same side of the infield is difficult to watch at times. I've been a proponent of just letting Sano DH full time, but it doesn't sound like that's the plan, which is understandable. Sano certainly has the arm for third, showed some surprising agility last season and is still just 23-years-old. So we'll assume now that Trevor Plouffe is out of the picture Sano is locked in at the hot corner. Eduardo Escobar is still around as an option at shortstop, but putting him there would make Polanco a backup/utility player. That's not an ideal role for the 23-year-old's development. Polanco is out of options, so sending him to the minors for further seasoning/everyday reps is not, unfortunately, on the table.So it appears Dozier staying would create a situation that somewhat resembles the roster crunch of 2016 that resulted in Sano being sent to the outfield. One way or another, somebody would have to play out of their ideal position. Unlike Sano with right field, I suppose at least Polanco is familiar with playing shortstop. If Dozier stays the next question becomes what exactly are the Twins trying to do? If Dozier is traded, it would signal the Twins are rebuilding. If he stays, where does that put the organization? Just kinda trying to hang in there, I guess? Who wants that? What's the point? From a philosophical standpoint, Dozier staying puts the Twins in this weird limbo where they're not rebuilding but also not trying to complete. If they were rebuilding, both Dozier and Ervin Santana would be traded for prospects. If they were contending, the front office would make an effort to beef up the pitching staff and maybe add one more veteran bat. From strictly a short-term perspective, of course I want to see Dozier play for the Twins in 2017. His development is the biggest success story of the organization over the past five years, and he just continues to get better. But from the long-term view, I'd really love to feel like there is light at the end of the tunnel. The last six seasons have been rough. Watching the Cubs and Astros turn things around over the same span pours salt on the wound. How many more teams are we going to see do successful tear downs before the Twins are good again? There can be no more standing at the crossroads trying to decide which way to go. The Twins need to either commit to a rebuild and set their sights toward 2020 or try to dial things up for a championship run in 2018. I'm okay with Brian Dozier staying, but his presence on the team would need to also signal a shift in philosophy. Click here to view the article

Good stuff. I was excited to see Lachlan crack your preliminary Top-20 back in early October. He was amazing last season.

This is the best ever!

Tom Petty wrote that the waiting is the hardest part. You can count me among the Twins fans who can relate to that sentiment this offseason. All the excitement about new faces in the front office and speculation around the direction they may point the organization has resulted in very little action thus far. That's not to say there's reason to be critical of the Twins' offseason to this point. Heck it's too early to pass any kind of judgement either way. There is plenty of time for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to transform the roster if they see fit. But, there's no denying the hot stove has been characteristically cold for the Twins despite new leadership. Don't expect things to heat up anytime soon.It's not very common for trades to happen this time of year, as it seems like front offices take it a little easy during the holidays. Last season, the Reds traded Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees on Dec. 28 but there wasn't another trade for almost two weeks after. Typically if a trade is going to happen early in the offseason it's completed at the Winter Meetings. Jon Heyman's reports that talks with the Dodgers about a potential Brian Dozier swap do not appear to be progressing. At what point do the Twins (or Dodgers, for that matter) just walk away from trade talks? I'm not in the camp that is demanding Dozier to be traded this winter, but I am starting to feel a weird anxiety about his status being up in the air (can't even begin to imagine how he feels). I just want to know if Dozier is going to be a part of the 2017 Twins or not. So many other things around the infield depend on what happens with Dozier. In my offseason blueprint I decided it would be better to hold Dozier and see if maybe at the deadline there would be more teams interested at that time. It's always nice to have a bidding war to drive up the asking price. But I'm starting to doubt if there will be another package that comes around with a better upper-level pitching prospect than Jose De Leon. Dave Cameron's of Fangraphs believes the Twins should make a deal for De Leon while he's on the table. And after reading Nick's thorough breakdown of De Leon it's tough to disagree with Cameron's stance. De Leon is certainly a risky investment, but what young pitcher isn't? While my own patience runs thin, it's probably a good thing for Twins fans I'm not running the team. That's true for lots of reasons, but chief among them right now is that I wouldn't have the endurance to be engaged in a negotiation for this long. Falvey and Levine may be running the risk of the Dodgers looking elsewhere to find a second baseman, but all the negotiating power lies with the Twins at this point. If a deal doesn't get done, the Twins keep the best and most popular player in the organization who just hit 42 home runs, is in his prime and on an affordable contract. And taking a look at Seth's recent roster projection, there aren't any glaring holes on the team now that Jason Castro has filled the void at catcher. The Dodgers, on the other hand, currently project to have Enrique Hernandez as their Opening Day second baseman. There are also rumors they're interested in a reunion with Chase Utley, who just turned 38-years-old. Sure, they could trade for another player such as Logan Forsythe of the Rays, but he's not on Dozier's level and he would still cost LA an impressive package of prospects. By no means do the Twins need to trade Brian Dozier. Falvey and Levine know this. I think one could argue the Dodgers need Dozier if they expect to contend for the World Series. The National League should be extremely competitive. Good things come to those who wait. Hopefully the Dodgers eventually give in and let go of whoever the Twins are holding out for. They have every reason to do so. Click here to view the article

I feel like if the team thinks they can compete by 2018 they should keep both Dozier and Ervin. If not, they both should be traded, regardless of replacement options. Plus let's say Dozier is traded for De Leon, then I would argue that there is in a way an excess, maybe not in terms of talent, but in numbers. As it stands the rotation would be Ervin, Santiago, Gibson, Berrios and Hughes (if healthy) or maybe Duffey/May/Mejia with Gonsalves knocking on the door in Triple A. I'm skeptical he'll stick, but Rule 5 guy Justin Haley is another option. Toss in De Leon and it becomes difficult to try to work all these guys into a five-man rotation even with the expected injuries/attrition. Might as well trade Ervin at that point.

This is great stuff, thanks for taking the time to comment. To your point, even De Leon, a former 24th-round-pick, wasn't a heralded prospect as recently as a couple years ago. You've definitely swayed my thinking some, and in general I have to agree with you. But when I think specifically about the Twins position right now I would still be inclined to go high risk/high reward. I feel like with Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, Stewart, Mejia and the like all coming up and other options in Gibson, Duffey and even May the Twins should have no problem finding options to fill out the rotation. While the guys I just listed have either under performed or haven't yet cracked the majors, that's still already nine options. And who knows, maybe one or two of those guys can be one of the type of pitchers who turns into a complete stud with a new pitch/mechanical tweak. I guess you can never have enough pitching, but I'm still inclined to shoot for the moon and focus on just trying to get the best pitcher possible instead of the best package.

You're right, even combining both Dozier and Ervin probably isn't enough to get Urias. But if you swap in Alex Reyes of the Cardinals or Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates or whoever you feel is the best guy that combo could possibly net, would you rather do that or try to trade Dozier and Santana separately for more prospects? I guess the bottom line is I'm wondering if there's any avenue in which the Twins can land a young pitcher better than Jose De Leon, or is that the highest we can realistically hope for. No disrespect to him, De Leon would be a huge add for the future of the rotation, but I just wonder. I'm sure that's the question Falvey is trying to find an answer to right now.

During this week's Winter Meetings we've seen the Chicago White Sox trade two of their premier players, Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, for a total of seven prospects. The moves have skyrocketed the White Sox farm system, which has been rated in the bottom third of baseball for several years. With Sale and Eaton both being very valuable thanks to their ages and team-friendly contracts, the White Sox managed to land both quality and quantity in terms of the prospects they acquired. For the Twins, it's likely the front office will have to choose between quality and quantity in their deals this winter.It's not difficult to imagine Derek Falvey & Co. making a couple of similar deals, though on a slightly smaller scale. But with a solid young foundation already in place and more help on the way with the No. 1 pick in this upcoming June's draft, should the Twins be more focused on top quality in their returns? The Brian Dozier trade winds continue to swirl, but things have been curiously quiet on the Ervin Santana front. Maybe neither of them get traded this offseason, but it seems obvious that if one goes there's not much reason to hold on to the other. So why not try to move them both in the same deal? There are rumored to be multiple teams interested in Dozier, but the most smoke has been surrounding the Los Angeles Dodgers. And, like most teams, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher. This would be the ultimate putting all your eggs in the same basket deal, but how about offering Dozier and Santana for 20-year-old wonder boy Julio Urias? Getting third and fourth starters, middle relievers or solid everyday players is never all that difficult. Every year those types of players can be acquired on the free agent market, and with a core of cheap young players coming up and Joe Mauer's contract coming off the books soon the Twins should have spending room in the future. Getting aces, shutdown closers or stud hitters is extremely difficult. Even when those players become available you either have to sell your farm system just to get them as a half-season rental or sign them to ridiculous free agent contracts that are two or three years longer than you'd like. As with any young player, Urias is a lottery ticket, but his odds of giving you a jackpot are as high as they get. And if Urias hits you would have a player who is great, young and under extended team control. Of course, all this is assuming the Dodgers would even agree to the swap. Despite facing more advanced hitters his entire minor league career, the Mexican lefty dominated. Urias has a 2.66 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over 267 1/3 innings in the minors. He got the call to the show last season as a 19-year-old and did not experience much of a learning curve. Over 77 innings with the Dodgers, Urias had a 3.39 ERA and averaged 9.8 K/9. That's the kind of player who is next to impossible for the Twins to acquire under normal circumstances. Jose De Leon, the most rumored centerpiece in purposed Dozier deals, looks completely ordinary next to Urias. But still, it's much more likely Dozier is traded for a package of youngsters. And to be fair, both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have first-hand experience acquiring some really impressive players in such packages. But when those trades don't work out, well ... we all remember the Johan Santana trade. Maybe the Urias scenario isn't realistic, but what do you think about the idea in general? Should the Twins shoot for the moon and package Dozier and Ervin in the same deal, or should they try to diversify their returns and trade them in separate deals for packages of prospects? Click here to view the article

Nice write up. What an interesting journey it has been for Garver and Turner. It's too bad Stuart had to go, but I suppose it's not necessary to keep four catchers on the 40 man. For what it's worth Turner's bat heated up some to end the year. He had a .745 OPS in the second half. If he can have a great spring and the Reds decide Devin Mesoraco's catching days are over Turner could be the backup to Tucker Barnhart on the Reds' opening day roster.

I don't understand why the Nats didn't just sign Dexter Fowler. Pretty close to as good as Eaton. Sure, he'd cost more, but I can't imagine the Nats are hurting for money. Plus that's just looking at "cost" as salary, Eaton cost them his salary and those three prospects. I don't get it, but hopefully this means the Twins can get a similar haul for Dozier. While you can at least compare Eaton to Fowler there is no one on the free agent market comparable to Dozier.

Plus if he's called up we would get the added bonus of hearing Bert try to pronounce Engelb Vielma.

The first big addition of the Derek Falvey era was done in design to improve the team's defense, an area that had gone serially overlooked in recent years. Let's hope the defensive upgrades continue, as there has been a strong correlation between team defense and success for the Twins. Take a look through the more than 220 comments on Parker's article and it becomes obvious there is not a consensus among Twins Daily readers on whether or not it was wise to sign Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million deal. Only time will tell, but an upgrade at catcher, particularly in terms of defense, was a huge need. It's a good start, as Nick noted, but there are still plenty of areas of improvement. And it's worth noting that defense has been a huge factor in the team's successes and failures over the years.Over the past 15 seasons, the Twins have ranked in the top half in team defense seven times, according to Fangraphs. They had a winning record in six of those seasons (every year but '07 when they were 79-83) and made the playoffs five times. In the eight years they've fielded a below-average defense (which includes each of the past six seasons), the Twins have been over .500 twice with just one postseason appearance ('09, Joe Mauer's MVP season). With an above average defense, the Twins have averaged 89 wins and with a sub-par defense they've averaged just 72 wins. And that's pretty close to being in line with what you see across the league. Taking a look at the past five seasons, teams who finished in the top 10 in defense averaged 85 wins and those in the bottom ten averaged just 75 wins. It's very difficult to be a good team that's bad at catching the baseball. As always, there are plenty of exceptions. The '14 Reds and Red Sox both ranked in the top five in defense but lost 86 and 91 games, respectively. On the other end, the '15 Pirates won 98 games despite being in the bottom five in defense. Last season, the Twins were 29th in defense, ahead of only Oakland. The only position where the Twins had above average glove work was at first base, where they ranked 8th. Center field (16th) and second base (19th) were spots where the team was at least passable. But right field (23rd), third base (24th), catcher (25th), and shortstop (27th) were all pain points for the Twins' defense, and thanks to Robbie Grossman's horrendous performance the team had the worst-rated left field defense in baseball. The hope is that Castro will boost the defense behind the dish, but what about the other positions? Max Kepler spent more time in right field with the Twins last season than he had played the position over his entire minor league career. Hopefully with more reps in right his defense will improve, he certainly appears to have the physical tools to be an above average fielder. In left, Eddie Rosario has been one of the best defenders in baseball the past two seasons. But he only accounted for about a third of the innings in left last season, as he spent some time in Rochester and played some center field. That leaves the biggest unanswered questions are on the left side of the infield. The obvious in-house candidates to fill those spots are Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar. If I'm going to give Kepler a break due to lack of minor league reps in right, I suppose I need to do the same for both Sano at third (thanks to his 2014 Tommy John surgery) and Polanco at shortstop (because he inexplicably played second base last season in Rochester). But it would be risky to hope they can both make the major improvements necessary to become even just average defensively. Considering they'd be playing next to each other in the field, a lack of improvement from both would be a defensive disaster. In his offseason blueprint, Seth recently offered up punchless leatherwizard (copyright Eric Longenhagen) Engelb Vielma as a glove-first alternate at shortstop. Vielma hasn't played above Double A, but for what it's worth both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have had success aggressively promoting young shortstops (not that Vielma is anywhere near the prospect Francisco Lindor or Elvis Andrus were). The only other player with infield experience on the 40-man roster is Danny Santana, and the free agent market is thin. How everything shakes out in the infield also relies heavily on whether or not Brian Dozier is traded. With the Winter Meetings coming up this week, many more questions may be answered. What would you like to see the Twins do to improve their defense? Click here to view the article

My fear is as umpires start to pay more attention to this stuff and understand who the guys are with the reputations of being the best framers, they'll be more cognizant and shrink their zone for that catcher. It's sort of like when the batter has a reputation of having a good eye it seems sometimes they get calls just because the ump gives them the benefit of the doubt. I've also wondered if framing skills carry over when a catcher switches teams. Isn't it possible Castro's numbers were so good because the Astros pitchers were really good at painting the black? Could it be some "stolen" strikes should be credited to the pitcher? Either way, the Twins desperately needed a catcher, and there doesn't appear to be a long-term solution in house until maybe 19-year-old Ben Rortvedt is ready, and that's assuming he makes it. Both Murphy and Garver look like decent backups at best.

Um ... the 2016 Chicago Cubs.

There's been a lot of speculation about how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may build up the Minnesota Twins. Will they trade, draft, buy or develop their way to a brighter future for the Twins? Well I'm wondering if it may be possible for them to also flip their way toward improving the team's outlook. Flipping houses is back en vogue, and it seems there's some opportunity to apply the same concepts related to flipping houses to rebuilding a ball club. Teams have all kinds of ways they can improve their future outlook, but is it possible to simply flip your way to a brighter future?Probably the best example of a team successfully flipping a player from last season was the Oakland A's handling of Rich Hill. Despite not expecting to be competitive, the A's signed Hill to a one-year, $6 million deal over the winter. From the moment the signing was announced it was speculated that the A's were out to flip Hill at the trade deadline. Entering his age 36 season, it was no guarantee Hill would replicate his impressive 2015 numbers that came from just four starts. But Hill was able to thrive over 14 starts with Oakland and was packaged with Josh Reddick to land a trio of promising pitching prospects from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes. The Cubs using this strategy with Scott Feldman in 2013 stick out as maybe the greatest example of the strategy. Unlike Hill, Feldman was coming off a terrible season when he signed with the Cubs, posting a 5.09 ERA. But with past success and youth on his side, Chicago gave him a one-year, $6 million deal. Feldman turned in the best performance of his career over 15 starts as a Cub, and was sent as the headliner in a deal for Jake Arrieta. I'm sure even the most optimistic person the the Cubs' front office didn't see that working out as well as it did, but even at the time the logic was sound. Acquiring younger players with more upside and more years of control always makes sense. Even with that being the case, those trades rarely work out even close to that well. Now that Arrieta is a Cy Young pitcher and the Cubs are world champions that's looking like one of the greatest trades of all time. This is clearly not on that same level, but the Twins were able to flip Fernando Abad last season. No, Pat Light is not a franchise-changing piece, but the Twins did well to turn a guy they signed to a minor league deal into a younger player with upside who has more years of team control. That's the goal. So how might the Twins employ the tactic this offseason? Looking at guys who have the potential to be larger scale flips, someone who sticks out as a potential reclamation project among hitters is old friend Carlos Gomez. Levine's Rangers acquired him midseason from the Astros and saw him turn things around. After receiving MVP consideration in 2013 and 2014 things fell apart for Gomez. In his time with the Astros, he hit even worse than when he was a Twin, which eventually led to his release. But in a short sample of 130 at-bats with the Rangers Gomez had a .905 OPS. He's seeking a multi-year deal, but you never know how the market will turn out. We saw Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler sit on the market until late February last offseason. Both had to settle for one-year deals. It's difficult to predict who, but it seems likely somebody in this free agent class will end up being a great bargain for the last few teams with money left to spend. On the pitching side, there are plenty of guys who could dramatically increase their value, but no one who jumps out to the extent Hill did last offseason. Brett Anderson is probably at the top of the list. Anderson has been one of the least healthy pitchers in the game since debuting with Oakland as a 21-year-old back in 2009. He turns 29 in February, and has had his share of both successes and failures over his career. Overall he has an ERA+ of 105, a 3.70 FIP and 2.77 K/BB ratio for his career. The combination of suppressed value and potential upside make Anderson an ideal candidate to flip. Here are some other intriguing names among starting pitchers ... Derek Holland: When news first broke Texas declined his option it didn't really move the needle for me, but I'm starting to come around. I'm not sure we've seen a healthy Holland at any point over the last three seasons. In 2013 he was the eighth-best pitcher in the AL per fWAR and entering his age 30 season there should still be something left in the tank. Signing him to a one-year deal would be an excellent low risk, potentially high reward deal. Henderson Alvarez: He's only thrown 22 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but is also still just 26-years-old. When healthy he can sit in the mid-90s, but he's more of a control specialist than a strikeout pitcher. Jake Peavy: He's 35 and had a 5.54 ERA last season. But Eno Sarris recently highlighted his encouraging spin rates over at Fangraphs. If he's willing to pitch for a last-place team, it shouldn't be a problem landing him on an affordable one-year pact. Jorge De La Rosa: The veteran longtime Rockies hurler has actually pitched relatively well in Coors Field. Still, it would be interesting to see if he could thrive if he gets outside of pitching half his games in baseball's oddest environment. Out of the bullpen I see Santiago Casilla or Neftali Feliz as good options to flip. Either could be inserted directly into the closer role and rack up value quickly. In his offseason blueprint, Seth offered up David Hernandez as an affordable veteran who could be a fit for the Twins' bullpen. He also fits the bill of someone who could be flipped. Another strategy I'd be interested in would be converting a pitcher into a new role. Why not get creative and sign Travis Wood as a starter, or Andrew Cashner to pitch out of the bullpen? Might a guy like Wood even take a pay cut for the chance to start again? Who knows, maybe. I am under the assumption payroll will be reduced, but hopefully Falvey and Levine can talk the Pohlads into making one of these deals. If things work out, the return on investment can be enormous. Who would you target as a free agent to flip? Click here to view the article

One last thing regarding Soto, here's an overview of him vs. the top free agent guys: OPS 2013-2016 Soto .744 Ramos .734 Wieters .724 Castro .709 Framing 2013-2016 Castro 30.8 Soto 1.2 Ramos -2.8 Wieters -28.1 Career CS% Ramos 34% Wieters 33% Soto 27% Castro 26%

Soto would be more of a stop gap, and while he's not anyone to grab headlines, he would represent an upgrade over Suzuki (not saying much I know). The ideal situation is he would be in a 60/40 split with one of the "younger" guys to open the year before rolling back into more of a bench role. I put younger in quotes because Murphy, Garver and Turner will all be either 25 or 26 this season. It's time to give them an opportunity, they shouldn't need anymore time in the minors. Garver's great season has carried over into the AFL and both Murphy and Turner had encouraging finishes to the MiLB season.

I know this looks a lot like the team that lost 103 games, but it also looks pretty similar to the 2015 team that was in the playoff hunt all the way up to the last weekend of the season. My glass is half full right now, but I think it's realistic to expect the majority of the guys on that 25-man roster to perform better than they did last season. But if that doesn't happen, heck yeah, hold a fire sale and basically make it the goal to land the number one pick. I'd give these guys one more shot, then do an Astros-style bottoming out.