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Everything posted by Tom Froemming
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Article: Catching Up With Ryan Jeffers
Tom Froemming replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good stuff. If anybody wants a look at Jeffers behind the plate, he was catching Jhoan Duran during the start I highlighted in his Prospect Spotlight Series video. Jeffers is a big guy but he does an incredible job at getting small and giving umpires a good window. It seems like both he and Swanson know the challenges he's going to face, and Jeffers doesn't sound like one to back down from a challenge. Excited to see Jeffers back there more often this season. He only caught in half of his games last season. I was griping about how relatively little Mitch Garver caught while he was down on the farm and I think they saw that come back to bite them a bit. -
I did a big overview on how the new front office has gone about using all potential avenues to improve this minor league system for the Prospect Handbook. It was really, really good, probably worth the full price of the book on its own, lol I believe there are a few copies still available if you hurry! I always like to look at Seth's breakdown of where we each have these guys ranked individually. Being really conservative on Duran and Enlow ended up putting me as the high man on so many of the guys in the upper levels, though we were all relatively close in the grand scheme of things. I was in the middle of all the biggest splits we had among the top 10. Cody and I had a 10-spot disagreement on Enlow and Seth and I had a seven-spot difference on Duran. I was the low man on both of those guys, but then I was the highest on Thorpe, where Nick and I had a six-spot gap. Just an interesting observation ... probably just means I'm going to be wrong a lot, HA!
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Article: Making Sense of the Lineup Makeover
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks for the feedback everybody. Cleveland's staff is for the most part really tough on righties, but check this out: vs. current CLE pitchers Cruz .340/.386/.745 (1.131 OPS) in 101 PAs Cron .306/.390/.528 (.918 OPS) in 42 PAs Schoop .311/.317/.443 (.760 OPS) in 63 PAs Now those vs. pitcher splits may not be the most predictive numbers you can find, but you'd certainly rather see a good track record than not. Cron got hit by 17 pitches last year, third-most in the AL. He's averaged an HBP per every 46 PAs vs. RHP compared to one every 99 PAs vs. LHP, so that was a good hunch. It's certainly possible that was their motivation, but that's a poor overall way to build a team. I think you only do that if you're looking for guys to flip at the trade deadline. If you're trying to win, I think you have to focus on how guys fit into your current team and you need to look at your lineup as one singular element as opposed to a bunch of individuals. Again, not saying you're wrong, I just hope that wasn't the case.- 21 replies
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Just an FYI, it can take some time to fully build up an article. I will often use that Breaking News image as sort of a filler just to get the headline/basic info into an article and up on the site. Then I circle back and go grab an appropriate image specific to the article. ... but I also still would say this is definitely breaking news.
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Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reported on Twitter that the Twins are nearing an extension with shortstop Jorge Polanco. Polanco was set to make $575,000 this season and is currently under team control through 2022. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the contract extension will cover seven seasons.UPDATE 1 We have some specific numbers being reported. Jim Bowden of The Athletic reported Polanco's deal $25.75 million over five years and include two additional option years. The Twins have also reportedly reached a similar agreement with Max Kepler. According to Passan's reporting, the deal would guarantee five years and include two option years. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune is reporting the deal is expected to guarantee Polanco $25 million over those five seasons. Details on the two option years are not known at this time. 2:25 UPDATE: Here are the details of the Polanco deal, per Bob Nightengale: Less than a year ago, Polanco was suspended 80 games for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. When he returned, however, the 25-year-old had a productive half season for the Twins. His 110 wRC+ ranked 10th among the 38 shortstops who logged at least 300 plate appearances last season, per FanGraphs. Since the 2017 All-Star break, Polanco has hit .290/.351/.463 (.814 OPS) with 16 home runs, 69 runs and 85 RBIs in 140 games. If he were to maintain that level of production, Polanco would figure to make a decent amount of money through arbitration. With the Twins payroll surprisingly low heading into this season, could it be that we're going to see multiple extensions signed during spring training? Who knows, but that would certainly help explain why they were so relatively conservative on the open market despite there appearing to be plenty of wiggle room to be more aggressive. Star-Tribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III wrote earlier in the week that the Twins hoped to finalize a couple of long-term contract extensionsas early as this week. So this could be the first of a few deals. The Twins signed Jorge Polanco as a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic in July of 2009. No current player has been in the organization longer than Polanco. He signed on July 2nd. Nine days later, the Twins signed Max Kepler. It seems with team starting to report to spring training we've also reached extension season. Yesterday, the Phillies signed starting pitcher Aaron Nola to an extension that has Twins fans wondering if Jose Berrios would take a similar deal. It was also reported that the Yankees have engaged in extension talks with starter Luis Severino. Click here to view the article
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UPDATE 1 We have some specific numbers being reported. Jim Bowden of The Athletic reported Polanco's deal $25.75 million over five years and include two additional option years. The Twins have also reportedly reached a similar agreement with Max Kepler. According to Passan's reporting, the deal would guarantee five years and include two option years. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune is reporting the deal is expected to guarantee Polanco $25 million over those five seasons. Details on the two option years are not known at this time. 2:25 UPDATE: Here are the details of the Polanco deal, per Bob Nightengale: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1096142782102564864 Less than a year ago, Polanco was suspended 80 games for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. When he returned, however, the 25-year-old had a productive half season for the Twins. His 110 wRC+ ranked 10th among the 38 shortstops who logged at least 300 plate appearances last season, per FanGraphs. Since the 2017 All-Star break, Polanco has hit .290/.351/.463 (.814 OPS) with 16 home runs, 69 runs and 85 RBIs in 140 games. If he were to maintain that level of production, Polanco would figure to make a decent amount of money through arbitration. With the Twins payroll surprisingly low heading into this season, could it be that we're going to see multiple extensions signed during spring training? Who knows, but that would certainly help explain why they were so relatively conservative on the open market despite there appearing to be plenty of wiggle room to be more aggressive. Star-Tribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III wrote earlier in the week that the Twins hoped to finalize a couple of long-term contract extensions as early as this week. So this could be the first of a few deals. The Twins signed Jorge Polanco as a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic in July of 2009. No current player has been in the organization longer than Polanco. He signed on July 2nd. Nine days later, the Twins signed Max Kepler. It seems with team starting to report to spring training we've also reached extension season. Yesterday, the Phillies signed starting pitcher Aaron Nola to an extension that has Twins fans wondering if Jose Berrios would take a similar deal. It was also reported that the Yankees have engaged in extension talks with starter Luis Severino.
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Considering the team's weaknesses, I was surprised by the type of hitters the Twins’ front office decided to bring in this offseason. I expected there to be a focus on signing high on-base percentage guys to multi-year deals. After having some time to digest things, I think I’ve identified a few things that may explain what the Twins were looking for.Usually I'd hash through everything and make you wait for the conclusion, but this thing got long. So instead, it's choose your own adventure! Here comes the conclusion, stick around for the more detailed analysis if you'd like. Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are all right-handed pull power hitters who are comfortably above average against right-handed pitching, making them particularly platoon proof. If you believe Target Field is a great place for right-handed hitters, it seems to make a ton of sense to seek out that profile. Also, if you’re inclined to carry a 13-man pitching staff, as is commonplace in today’s age, filling your roster with guys who can hit same-sided pitching makes a ton of sense. One-dimensional hitters really lose their value when you only have three bench spots. Alright, that’s the quick hit take. For those of you interested in a deeper dive, here we go ... The OBP Issue Take a look at how those new additions stack up against some of the key departures in terms of OBP over the past three seasons. OBP 2016-18 .371 Robbie Grossman .366 Joe Mauer .359 Nelson Cruz .336 Brian Dozier .319 C.J. Cron .313 Eduardo Escobar .304 Jonathan Schoop The added pop is welcome from the new faces, but the Twins ranked 16th in OBP last season as it was. They can ill afford a slip further back. This is still definitely a concern of mine. The Lefty Issue The Twins had a 91 wRC+ against lefties last season, which ranked 21st in baseball. To make matters worse, they also lost their best two hitters against lefties last season in terms of wRC+ (min. 100 PAs vs. LHP). Robbie Grossman led the club with a 147 wRC+ vs. southpaws while Joe Mauer finished second at 106. So these new right-handed bats will help solve that problem, right? Well ... it's interesting. Let’s take a look. Into the Splits Before we continue, I think it’s important to relay the league averages for context. Here are the league batting splits of right-handed hitters from 2018 per Baseball-Reference: RHB vs. LHP: .251/.330/.423 (.753 OPS), 21.3 K%, 9.8 BB% RHB vs. RHP: .246/.308/.403 (.711 OPS), 23.0 K%, 7.2 BB% So how do the new guys stack up? We’re going to first take a look at their career splits. I’ll touch on some interesting single-season trends a bit later, but it's worth pointing out an everyday player may only get around 150 plate appearances against lefties in a season. That’s not a very big sample, so I prefer to look at the bigger picture first. Nelson Cruz career vs. LHP: .290/.378/.549 (.927 OPS), 20.0 K%, 12.0 BB% vs. RHP: .269/.328/.507 (.835 OPS), 23.3 K%, 7.3 BB% Cruz has definitely been a lefty killer over his career, but there’s really nothing lacking about his slash line against same-sided pitchers. Last season, the league average OPS for a DH was .774, which he blows out of the water even against right-handers. Cruz ranks seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers among the 150 right-handed batters with at least 600 PAs over the past three seasons. Even though he's hit lefties much harder, Cruz actually ranks 10th vs. left-handers among the 186 right-handers with at least 250 PAs last three seasons. Point is that Cruz is an uncharacteristically balanced hitter. Was that something the Twins found particularly attractive about him? Cruz is a great power hitter, has has a solid OBP and crushes lefties, so he checks all the boxes. But the curious thing to me is the Twins already had some interesting internal options to fill the DH spot. Tyler Austin has a career .937 OPS against lefties and Jake Cave has an .844 OPS against right-handers, making them appear to be perfect platoon partners. But in today’s age of the three-man bench, is it really optimal to try and deploy a platoon? The Twins didn’t seem to think so. Moving on … C.J. Cron career vs. LHP: .264/.313/.463 (.776 OPS), 21.9 K%, 5.9 BB% vs. RHP: .258/.311/.460 (.770 OPS), 22.8 K%, 5.2 BB% Take a look at that. Cron has essentially been the exact same guy against either side over his career. There’s certainly been some fluctuation year-to-year, more on that in a moment, but the grand totals are incredibly even. Cron appears to be a very steady option. This only adds steam to the theory that the front office was seeking out balanced hitters who do not need a platoon partner. OK, now let’s get weird … Jonathan Schoop career vs. LHP: .246/.292/.401 (.693 OPS) 24.9 K%, 5.8 BB% vs. RHP: .262/.294/.461 (.755 OPS), 21.7 K%, 2.9 BB% Huh? Schoop has actually been a good amount worse against southpaws over his career!? Does not compute. I had to triple check these numbers. Since the start of 2014, Schoop ranks 81st among 86 right-handed hitters in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching (min. 600 PAs). Still, just like Cruz and Cron, Schoop is comfortably better than the average right-handed hitter against same-sided pitching. And there are some interesting things to observe in the single-season splits. Schoop has struggled against lefties for most of his career, but he hit .300/.361/.593 (.955 OPS) in 166 plate appearances against them in 2017. That was by far and away Schoop’s best season. The bigger sample doesn’t inspire confidence, but maybe the Twins expect a better performance against southpaws again in 2019. Cron has been solid against lefties, but in no means a lefty killer over his career. In 2018, however, he hit .307/.376/.553 (.930 OPS) in 170 plate appearances them. Hmm, so Cron’s best season against lefties also lines up with his career year. That’s an interesting coincidence. Again, keep those sample sizes in mind. When I think of Schoop and Cron in terms of their ceiling and floor, I think this splits conversation is a really good place to start. Both have shown the ability to consistently produce against right-handed pitchers. That helps give them a high floor. But what if they destroy lefties again? That’s how they could also have a high ceiling. Projected AL Central Rotations Let’s take a look around of rest of the division. According to Roster Resource, there are only five left-handed starters projected to occupy the rotation spots of the four AL Central rivals: Matthew Boyd and Matt Moore of the Tigers, Carlos Rodon and Manny Banuelos of the White Sox and Danny Duffy of the Royals. Not exactly world beaters. Cleveland is expected to have an all right-handed rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. And remember, with the unbalanced schedule the Twins play nearly half their games against AL Central foes. So there wouldn’t be much advantage in the Twins adding hitters who just mashed lefties. Pull Power So why not just target left-handed hitters then? Well, balance for one thing. The Twins already have lefties Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler playing everyday and Jason Castro is expected to return as the primary catcher. Also, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco has been much better from the left side over his career. That’s already almost half of your primary lineup. We’ve also seen right-handed pull power play up at Target Field. According to the data on FanGraphs, the league average pull rate was 40.3 percent last season. Over the past three years, Schoop is at 44.7 percent, Cron is at 41.6 and Cruz at 41.1. That's nowhere near as extreme as Brian Dozier (51.2) or Josh Willingham (49.7), but all three are still above average. Perhaps they'll even be encouraged to pull the ball more frequently this year. So How Does the Lineup Look? Here’s a list of Twins hitters who are above average versus each side. In 2018, all batters (regardless of handedness) combined for a .731 OPS against right-handers and a .720 mark against lefties. Twins hitters who are better than those averages against right-handers over their careers: .844 Jake Cave .835 Nelson Cruz .813 Eddie Rosario .802 Miguel Sano .776 Max Kepler .776 Mitch Garver .771 Jorge Polanco .770 C.J. Cron .755 Jonathan Schoop .739 Jason Castro That’s 10 guys! This Twins team is going to be able to field a very deep lineup against right-handed pitching. Twins hitters who are better than average against lefties over their careers: .937 Tyler Austin .927 Nelson Cruz .846 Miguel Sano .776 C.J. Cron That’s it. Considering the composition of the other teams in the division, however, this doesn’t seem like such a bad problem to have. While there are fewer guys who hold their own against lefties, those top three can really mash. And just imagine if Cron and Schoop can crush southpaws like they did in their career years. It's also worth noting Byron Buxton had a .792 OPS against lefties in 2017. But what about Willians!?!?!? His MLB samples are just so small, less than 100 total plate appearances, so I didn’t include him. But between the majors and minors last year Astudillo had an .800 OPS against right-handers (304 PAs) and an .830 OPS versus lefties (100 PAs). Lucas Duda’s not on the 40-man roster, but it’s worth mentioning he has a career .839 OPS against right-handers but just a .642 OPS versus lefties. But What About Those Short-Term Deals? That’s the one thing I don’t really have an answer to. I wouldn’t suggest the Twins should have signed any one of Cruz/Cron/Schoop to a long-term pact, but it seems like it would have made some sense to target at least one addition who would be around for the long haul. If not via free agency, then through the trade market. After all the one-year deals went so poorly last season, and the front office was open about how that may have been a mistake, I expected them to focus more on long-term assets. Schoop is on a one-year deal, Cruz has an option with a very modest buyout and Cron has one more year of arbitration eligibility after 2019. Click here to view the article
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Usually I'd hash through everything and make you wait for the conclusion, but this thing got long. So instead, it's choose your own adventure! Here comes the conclusion, stick around for the more detailed analysis if you'd like. Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are all right-handed pull power hitters who are comfortably above average against right-handed pitching, making them particularly platoon proof. If you believe Target Field is a great place for right-handed hitters, it seems to make a ton of sense to seek out that profile. Also, if you’re inclined to carry a 13-man pitching staff, as is commonplace in today’s age, filling your roster with guys who can hit same-sided pitching makes a ton of sense. One-dimensional hitters really lose their value when you only have three bench spots. Alright, that’s the quick hit take. For those of you interested in a deeper dive, here we go ... The OBP Issue Take a look at how those new additions stack up against some of the key departures in terms of OBP over the past three seasons. OBP 2016-18 .371 Robbie Grossman .366 Joe Mauer .359 Nelson Cruz .336 Brian Dozier .319 C.J. Cron .313 Eduardo Escobar .304 Jonathan Schoop The added pop is welcome from the new faces, but the Twins ranked 16th in OBP last season as it was. They can ill afford a slip further back. This is still definitely a concern of mine. The Lefty Issue The Twins had a 91 wRC+ against lefties last season, which ranked 21st in baseball. To make matters worse, they also lost their best two hitters against lefties last season in terms of wRC+ (min. 100 PAs vs. LHP). Robbie Grossman led the club with a 147 wRC+ vs. southpaws while Joe Mauer finished second at 106. So these new right-handed bats will help solve that problem, right? Well ... it's interesting. Let’s take a look. Into the Splits Before we continue, I think it’s important to relay the league averages for context. Here are the league batting splits of right-handed hitters from 2018 per Baseball-Reference: RHB vs. LHP: .251/.330/.423 (.753 OPS), 21.3 K%, 9.8 BB% RHB vs. RHP: .246/.308/.403 (.711 OPS), 23.0 K%, 7.2 BB% So how do the new guys stack up? We’re going to first take a look at their career splits. I’ll touch on some interesting single-season trends a bit later, but it's worth pointing out an everyday player may only get around 150 plate appearances against lefties in a season. That’s not a very big sample, so I prefer to look at the bigger picture first. Nelson Cruz career vs. LHP: .290/.378/.549 (.927 OPS), 20.0 K%, 12.0 BB% vs. RHP: .269/.328/.507 (.835 OPS), 23.3 K%, 7.3 BB% Cruz has definitely been a lefty killer over his career, but there’s really nothing lacking about his slash line against same-sided pitchers. Last season, the league average OPS for a DH was .774, which he blows out of the water even against right-handers. Cruz ranks seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers among the 150 right-handed batters with at least 600 PAs over the past three seasons. Even though he's hit lefties much harder, Cruz actually ranks 10th vs. left-handers among the 186 right-handers with at least 250 PAs last three seasons. Point is that Cruz is an uncharacteristically balanced hitter. Was that something the Twins found particularly attractive about him? Cruz is a great power hitter, has has a solid OBP and crushes lefties, so he checks all the boxes. But the curious thing to me is the Twins already had some interesting internal options to fill the DH spot. Tyler Austin has a career .937 OPS against lefties and Jake Cave has an .844 OPS against right-handers, making them appear to be perfect platoon partners. But in today’s age of the three-man bench, is it really optimal to try and deploy a platoon? The Twins didn’t seem to think so. Moving on … C.J. Cron career vs. LHP: .264/.313/.463 (.776 OPS), 21.9 K%, 5.9 BB% vs. RHP: .258/.311/.460 (.770 OPS), 22.8 K%, 5.2 BB% Take a look at that. Cron has essentially been the exact same guy against either side over his career. There’s certainly been some fluctuation year-to-year, more on that in a moment, but the grand totals are incredibly even. Cron appears to be a very steady option. This only adds steam to the theory that the front office was seeking out balanced hitters who do not need a platoon partner. OK, now let’s get weird … Jonathan Schoop career vs. LHP: .246/.292/.401 (.693 OPS) 24.9 K%, 5.8 BB% vs. RHP: .262/.294/.461 (.755 OPS), 21.7 K%, 2.9 BB% Huh? Schoop has actually been a good amount worse against southpaws over his career!? Does not compute. I had to triple check these numbers. Since the start of 2014, Schoop ranks 81st among 86 right-handed hitters in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching (min. 600 PAs). Still, just like Cruz and Cron, Schoop is comfortably better than the average right-handed hitter against same-sided pitching. And there are some interesting things to observe in the single-season splits. Schoop has struggled against lefties for most of his career, but he hit .300/.361/.593 (.955 OPS) in 166 plate appearances against them in 2017. That was by far and away Schoop’s best season. The bigger sample doesn’t inspire confidence, but maybe the Twins expect a better performance against southpaws again in 2019. Cron has been solid against lefties, but in no means a lefty killer over his career. In 2018, however, he hit .307/.376/.553 (.930 OPS) in 170 plate appearances them. Hmm, so Cron’s best season against lefties also lines up with his career year. That’s an interesting coincidence. Again, keep those sample sizes in mind. When I think of Schoop and Cron in terms of their ceiling and floor, I think this splits conversation is a really good place to start. Both have shown the ability to consistently produce against right-handed pitchers. That helps give them a high floor. But what if they destroy lefties again? That’s how they could also have a high ceiling. Projected AL Central Rotations Let’s take a look around of rest of the division. According to Roster Resource, there are only five left-handed starters projected to occupy the rotation spots of the four AL Central rivals: Matthew Boyd and Matt Moore of the Tigers, Carlos Rodon and Manny Banuelos of the White Sox and Danny Duffy of the Royals. Not exactly world beaters. Cleveland is expected to have an all right-handed rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. And remember, with the unbalanced schedule the Twins play nearly half their games against AL Central foes. So there wouldn’t be much advantage in the Twins adding hitters who just mashed lefties. Pull Power So why not just target left-handed hitters then? Well, balance for one thing. The Twins already have lefties Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler playing everyday and Jason Castro is expected to return as the primary catcher. Also, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco has been much better from the left side over his career. That’s already almost half of your primary lineup. We’ve also seen right-handed pull power play up at Target Field. According to the data on FanGraphs, the league average pull rate was 40.3 percent last season. Over the past three years, Schoop is at 44.7 percent, Cron is at 41.6 and Cruz at 41.1. That's nowhere near as extreme as Brian Dozier (51.2) or Josh Willingham (49.7), but all three are still above average. Perhaps they'll even be encouraged to pull the ball more frequently this year. So How Does the Lineup Look? Here’s a list of Twins hitters who are above average versus each side. In 2018, all batters (regardless of handedness) combined for a .731 OPS against right-handers and a .720 mark against lefties. Twins hitters who are better than those averages against right-handers over their careers: .844 Jake Cave .835 Nelson Cruz .813 Eddie Rosario .802 Miguel Sano .776 Max Kepler .776 Mitch Garver .771 Jorge Polanco .770 C.J. Cron .755 Jonathan Schoop .739 Jason Castro That’s 10 guys! This Twins team is going to be able to field a very deep lineup against right-handed pitching. Twins hitters who are better than average against lefties over their careers: .937 Tyler Austin .927 Nelson Cruz .846 Miguel Sano .776 C.J. Cron That’s it. Considering the composition of the other teams in the division, however, this doesn’t seem like such a bad problem to have. While there are fewer guys who hold their own against lefties, those top three can really mash. And just imagine if Cron and Schoop can crush southpaws like they did in their career years. It's also worth noting Byron Buxton had a .792 OPS against lefties in 2017. But what about Willians!?!?!? His MLB samples are just so small, less than 100 total plate appearances, so I didn’t include him. But between the majors and minors last year Astudillo had an .800 OPS against right-handers (304 PAs) and an .830 OPS versus lefties (100 PAs). Lucas Duda’s not on the 40-man roster, but it’s worth mentioning he has a career .839 OPS against right-handers but just a .642 OPS versus lefties. But What About Those Short-Term Deals? That’s the one thing I don’t really have an answer to. I wouldn’t suggest the Twins should have signed any one of Cruz/Cron/Schoop to a long-term pact, but it seems like it would have made some sense to target at least one addition who would be around for the long haul. If not via free agency, then through the trade market. After all the one-year deals went so poorly last season, and the front office was open about how that may have been a mistake, I expected them to focus more on long-term assets. Schoop is on a one-year deal, Cruz has an option with a very modest buyout and Cron has one more year of arbitration eligibility after 2019.
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I was the only one not to have Graterol in my top 10 last year, placing him all the way down to 17th. As Law alluded to, I was also pretty confident Graterol was likely to end up in the bullpen. That's still a possibility, of course, but I don't see it shaking out that way anymore. The extra muscle and Berrios-like unquenchable work ethic have relieved a lot of my concerns. I'd still prefer he dial it back and take some of that stress out of his delivery, but he seems to be doing what he needs to make sure his body is able to handle that stress. There's also the intent. "I'm a starter." Not all pitchers have that conviction. Fernando Romero, for example, seems to be perfectly fine with a potential move to the bullpen if that's what gets him in the big leagues. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that stance from Romero, I'm just saying Graterol's determination to be a starter and understanding of what he needs to work on for that to become a reality are very encouraging to me.
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Upside. And I like how you put it, extreme. It's extreme value put on upside. I like Balazovic a great deal, he was one of my breakout picks for the handbook, but I'm more inclined to be too low on a guy than too high. A lot of it can also simply be the timing of your exposure to a guy. I can't remember which start, but I caught one of Balazovic's later outings on MiLB.tv. My guess is Law might have seen him earlier in the year, or got his reports from someone who saw him during that time. Balazovic got off to such a phenomenal start (2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in his first 38 IP) but then had a few clunkers from later on (6.46 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in final 23.2 IP). His K:BB ratio remained outstanding all the way through, he was just giving up a lot more loud contact (,303 SLG in first 38 IP, .444 SLG in last 23.2 IP). There could be a lot of reasons behind that weird split to his season. I'm willing to bet he was working on something specific, but that was enough to keep me from really rocketing him up my list.
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I'd stick Pineda and Perez in the bullpen and put Romero and Mejia in the rotation.
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Missing time alone shouldn't drastically alter a player's overall future outlook. Yes, I slid Javier down a few spots, but that was mainly because I'm a little more risk averse than the rest of the guys and I feel really good about the floor of the six players I put above Javier. But if someone wanted to make the case for Javier at No. 1, I wouldn't think it was completely outrageous. He has a better chance of being an above average shortstop than Lewis does. If you just want strictly performance information, we also do A TON of that. Seth does a great job with the minor league hitter/pitcher/reliever of the month through the season and we also have the year-end awards, which are 100 percent based on performance. Here are the links to those: Twins 2018 Minor League Hitter Of The Year Twins 2018 Minor League Starting Pitcher Of The Year Twins 2018 Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year Twins 2018 Short Season Hitter Of The Year Twins 2018 Short Season Pitcher Of The Year 2018 Twins Minor League All-Stars
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After winning the SEC triple crown and dominating the lower levels of the minor leagues in 2017, Brent Rooker was ready for a challenge. The Twins sent him straight to Double A for his first full season of pro ball. It was a tall order. Early on, it was looking as though that aggressive assignment may have been a mistake, but Rooker eventually powered through.Position: 1B/LF Age: 24 (DOB: 11/1/1994) 2018 Stats (AA): 503 PA, .254/.333/.465, 22 HR, 79 RBI ETA: 2020 2018 Ranking: 7 What's To Like Power. Rooker’s strong, but it’s not like he’s biggest guy around. Still, his in-game power is drool-inducing. He tied for the Southern League lead in doubles (32) and hit 22 homers in 2018, the most of any Twins minor leaguer. Rooker also led the Southern League in line-drive rate at 26.0 percent and he had the sixth-lowest groundball rate in the league at 34.3 percent, according to FanGraphs. The real kicker is it took him two months to really get going. Through May, Rooker was hitting just .240/.282/.411 (.693 OPS) in 49 games. He eventually found his footing. Over his final 81 games, he hit .264/.362/.498 (.860 OPS) with 15 home runs, 52 RBI and 48 runs. The big difference as the year progressed was in Rooker’s strike zone awareness and plan of attack. This is a guy who loves to hit, and can be caught being too aggressive at times. He walked in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances through those first two months, but from that point forward he posted an impressive 12.7 BB%. What's Left To Work On There’s a lot of swing and miss in Rooker’s game, which is often cited as a concern, but the bigger issue may be his defense. Trying him out in left field is a bit of a stretch, but he’s not particularly stellar at first base either. It’s not that Rooker’s some out of shape beer league softball player, he definitely has some athleticism, but there’s just a stiffness to the way he moves. The Twins have given him 77 starts in left field and 55 at first base so far, maybe he would be better off focusing on one position? Back to the strikeouts, seeing 150 Ks on Rooker’s ledger is certainly eye-opening, but a 26.4 K% isn’t going to cripple his value. The concern, of course, is that rate will escalate as he climbs the ladder. To his credit, Rooker did cut his strikeout rate from 28.8 percent through June (313 PAs) to 23.5 percent from there forward (255 PAs), but that’s going to be an area he needs to continue to keep under control. While he eventually heated up after a slow start, Rooker cooled off again at the end of the season. In his final 30 games, he hit just .173/.298/.264 (.561 OPS). He was slated to get some more looks in during the Arizona Fall League, but was forced to sit out due to an ankle sprain. What's Next? It wouldn’t be a shock to see Rooker back in Double A to start the year, but he should see plenty of time in Rochester this coming season. If all goes well and a need arises, he’s a candidate to make his major league debut sometime in 2019. There’s already a bit of a roster jam at 1B/DH on the big club, but an injury could blow the doors wide open for Rooker’s arrival. Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 19. Jorge Alcala, RHP 18. LaMonte Wade, OF 17. Zack Littell, RHP 16. Gilberto Celestino, OF 15. Yunior Severino, 2B 14. Ben Rortvedt, C 13. Ryan Jeffers, C 12. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 11. Nick Gordon, SS 10. Akil Baddoo, OF 9. Blayne Enlow, RHP 8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 7. Jhoan Duran, RHP 6. Brent Rooker LF/1B 5. Coming soon Learn more in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It’s available in paperback or as an eBook. Click here to view the article
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Position: 1B/LF Age: 24 (DOB: 11/1/1994) 2018 Stats (AA): 503 PA, .254/.333/.465, 22 HR, 79 RBI ETA: 2020 2018 Ranking: 7 What's To Like Power. Rooker’s strong, but it’s not like he’s biggest guy around. Still, his in-game power is drool-inducing. He tied for the Southern League lead in doubles (32) and hit 22 homers in 2018, the most of any Twins minor leaguer. Rooker also led the Southern League in line-drive rate at 26.0 percent and he had the sixth-lowest groundball rate in the league at 34.3 percent, according to FanGraphs. The real kicker is it took him two months to really get going. Through May, Rooker was hitting just .240/.282/.411 (.693 OPS) in 49 games. He eventually found his footing. Over his final 81 games, he hit .264/.362/.498 (.860 OPS) with 15 home runs, 52 RBI and 48 runs. The big difference as the year progressed was in Rooker’s strike zone awareness and plan of attack. This is a guy who loves to hit, and can be caught being too aggressive at times. He walked in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances through those first two months, but from that point forward he posted an impressive 12.7 BB%. What's Left To Work On There’s a lot of swing and miss in Rooker’s game, which is often cited as a concern, but the bigger issue may be his defense. Trying him out in left field is a bit of a stretch, but he’s not particularly stellar at first base either. It’s not that Rooker’s some out of shape beer league softball player, he definitely has some athleticism, but there’s just a stiffness to the way he moves. The Twins have given him 77 starts in left field and 55 at first base so far, maybe he would be better off focusing on one position? Back to the strikeouts, seeing 150 Ks on Rooker’s ledger is certainly eye-opening, but a 26.4 K% isn’t going to cripple his value. The concern, of course, is that rate will escalate as he climbs the ladder. To his credit, Rooker did cut his strikeout rate from 28.8 percent through June (313 PAs) to 23.5 percent from there forward (255 PAs), but that’s going to be an area he needs to continue to keep under control. While he eventually heated up after a slow start, Rooker cooled off again at the end of the season. In his final 30 games, he hit just .173/.298/.264 (.561 OPS). He was slated to get some more looks in during the Arizona Fall League, but was forced to sit out due to an ankle sprain. What's Next? It wouldn’t be a shock to see Rooker back in Double A to start the year, but he should see plenty of time in Rochester this coming season. If all goes well and a need arises, he’s a candidate to make his major league debut sometime in 2019. There’s already a bit of a roster jam at 1B/DH on the big club, but an injury could blow the doors wide open for Rooker’s arrival. Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 19. Jorge Alcala, RHP 18. LaMonte Wade, OF 17. Zack Littell, RHP 16. Gilberto Celestino, OF 15. Yunior Severino, 2B 14. Ben Rortvedt, C 13. Ryan Jeffers, C 12. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 11. Nick Gordon, SS 10. Akil Baddoo, OF 9. Blayne Enlow, RHP 8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 7. Jhoan Duran, RHP 6. Brent Rooker LF/1B 5. Coming soon Learn more in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It’s available in paperback or as an eBook.
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One of the things I believe to be an X factor for Thorpe is how well he hides the ball. I'm going to share a few videos but before I do, DISCLAIMER, I'm not trying to suggest Thorpe is on the same level as these other guys. Take a look at some behind the plate footage of Thorpe: https://youtu.be/z2n6QStc5us?t=87 And compare that to fellow lefty Jesus Luzardo: https://youtu.be/RcBc40SGdsY?t=22 Or MacKenzie Gore: https://youtu.be/FKABC62i1Ec?t=34 To my eyes, Thorpe does an exceptional job at hiding the ball. Do you see what I'm saying, or am I nuts? Luzardo and Gore, the two top lefty pitching prospects in the game per MLB Pipeline, certainly have other ways of creating deception. Luzardo has great arm speed and varies his windup while Gore has some exaggerated glove movements and a crossfire action. Again, Thorpe is NOT on the same level as those two guys, I'm simply using them as examples.
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Are you trying to suggest that if Baddoo posts a sub-.600 OPS he's not going to slip in these prospect rankings? All I'm trying say is if he struggles, like a lot of guys do making this jump, he's going to get passed by in these rankings. There will be guys who breakout, additions via the draft and, let's face it, a good chance of some talent being added at the deadline again. At the same time, I'm not sure I'd project a single guy ranked ahead of Baddoo right now to graduate from prospect status in 2019, so it's not like room is opening up at the top. Competition for a spot this high is going to be thick.
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As Seth mentioned, throws are still not anything to hang his hat on. I've also seen him take some not so efficient routes or first steps out there. Nothing to be too concerned about, but stuff like that might result in him being pushed to left field as he moves up and starts playing alongside better outfielders. *In terms of prospect status. Take a look at some of the guys who were going from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers last year and what happened to them, guys like Lewin Diaz and Travis Blankenhorn. I think a lot of things can get exposed in this jump that Baddoo's about to make, pitchers in the FSL are a lot more advanced than in the MWL.
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Having a brother who is 4 1/2 years older than me, I got introduced to card collecting at an early age. I don't remember any of my very first cards, though I'm sure they were just his castaways, which I was very happy to have. But in 1991, when I would have been six, I can remember getting a Donruss The Rookies set as a gift. Chuck Knoblauch, my favorite player at the time, was in that set as well as Ivan Rodriguez, who would become my favorite player a couple years later. I'm sure at the time I was also excited to have sure-fire Hall of Famer Todd Van Poppel in that set. Good times.
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Article: TwinsFest 2019 Joe Mauer White Glove Tour
Tom Froemming replied to TCAnelle's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I still can't believe that last game. I fully expected everybody to just play it off like just another game, especially since he hadn't made an announcement, but Joe appears to have opened himself up more to embrace some of the attention he seemed to shy away from in the past. It sounds like he loosened up for this tour as well. I also noticed in his chat with WCCO that interviewers are starting to ask him some different questions, and he talked some more about his days as a catcher. I hope he enjoys the next several years with his young family, but I think he could be an outstanding broadcaster or instructor of some kind when the time comes. -
The lower levels of the minor leagues are littered with speedy center fielders who have no idea how to play baseball. Elite athletes who have absolutely no clue what they’re doing in the batter’s box. And then you have Akil Baddoo. Guys like this aren’t supposed to know the strike zone like he does.10. Akil Baddoo, CF Age: 20 (DOB (8/16/98) 2018 Stats (-A): 517 PA, .243/.351/.419, 11 HR, 40 RBI ETA: 2021 2018 Ranking: 10 What’s to like? This guy’s not just an athlete. Baddoo has a career .367 on-base percentage and an even more impressive walk rate of 14.4 percent. Only 10 qualified MLB hitters walked more often in 2018. Baddoo’s also not just a strict pull hitter, another common issue among lower-level prospects. That should keep opposing teams from employing any extreme shifts against him. Here’s a look at his spray chart: Download attachment: BaddooSpray.png Most of his home run power is right down the line, but you can see plenty of extra-base hits going to the left of center field. Through the first two months of last season, Baddoo posted a .396 OBP, but that came with a very weak .336 slugging percentage. From that point forward, we started to see him punish pitches on a more regular basis. His OBP was only .329 through the rest of the season, but that came with an impressive .454 slugging percentage. So I think it’s fair to say he’s both shown excellent on-base skills and some nice pop. Is there a way he can balance out those two approaches, or even better yet, manage to maintain the best of both worlds? That’s the part that’s really exciting about Baddoo. He’s shown flashes of so many different skills. But let’s get back to that athleticism. Baddoo led the Midwest League with 11 triples last season and has a stolen base success rate over 80 percent for his career (41-for-51). The speed is real. There’s a lot to like. What’s left to work on? Surprise, surprise, he needs to get better against left-handed pitching. Real original, Akil. After handling southpaws to the tune of an .840 OPS in 2017, Baddoo hit just .220/.304/.339 (.643 OPS) against same-sided pitching this past season. Of his 17 career home runs, all but one of them have come against right-handed pitchers. What else? Baddoo would also benefit from cutting down on his strikeouts. Being comfortable working deep counts is great, but his strikeout rate of 24 percent last season is just a little too high. If anything, that rate figures to rise as he climbs the ladder, so Baddoo may benefit from being a bit more aggressive early in the count from time-to-time. He could also use some refinement in the field. What’s next? After spending the entire 2018 season with Cedar Rapids, Baddoo figures to spend plenty of his time in Fort Myers this year. Not only does the competition become more advanced, but the Florida State League is also a notorious pitcher’s environment. It should serve for a great measuring stick for Baddoo. This is the second straight year Baddoo has slotted 10th in our rankings. With this upcoming season serving as somewhat of a make or break year in terms of his prospect stock, he could shoot up the list or he could drop down, but I’d bet against a three-peat in the 10 spot. Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda 19. Jorge Alcala 18. LaMonte Wade 17. Zack Littell 16. Gilberto Celestino 15. Yunior Severino 14. Ben Rortvedt 13. Ryan Jeffers 12. Nick Gordon 11. Stephen Gonsalves 10. Akil Baddoo 9. Coming Soon Get to know more about these five Minnesota Twins prospects and much more in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It’s available in paperback or as an eBook. Click here to view the article
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10. Akil Baddoo, CF Age: 20 (DOB (8/16/98) 2018 Stats (-A): 517 PA, .243/.351/.419, 11 HR, 40 RBI ETA: 2021 2018 Ranking: 10 What’s to like? This guy’s not just an athlete. Baddoo has a career .367 on-base percentage and an even more impressive walk rate of 14.4 percent. Only 10 qualified MLB hitters walked more often in 2018. Baddoo’s also not just a strict pull hitter, another common issue among lower-level prospects. That should keep opposing teams from employing any extreme shifts against him. Here’s a look at his spray chart: Most of his home run power is right down the line, but you can see plenty of extra-base hits going to the left of center field. Through the first two months of last season, Baddoo posted a .396 OBP, but that came with a very weak .336 slugging percentage. From that point forward, we started to see him punish pitches on a more regular basis. His OBP was only .329 through the rest of the season, but that came with an impressive .454 slugging percentage. So I think it’s fair to say he’s both shown excellent on-base skills and some nice pop. Is there a way he can balance out those two approaches, or even better yet, manage to maintain the best of both worlds? That’s the part that’s really exciting about Baddoo. He’s shown flashes of so many different skills. But let’s get back to that athleticism. Baddoo led the Midwest League with 11 triples last season and has a stolen base success rate over 80 percent for his career (41-for-51). The speed is real. There’s a lot to like. What’s left to work on? Surprise, surprise, he needs to get better against left-handed pitching. Real original, Akil. After handling southpaws to the tune of an .840 OPS in 2017, Baddoo hit just .220/.304/.339 (.643 OPS) against same-sided pitching this past season. Of his 17 career home runs, all but one of them have come against right-handed pitchers. What else? Baddoo would also benefit from cutting down on his strikeouts. Being comfortable working deep counts is great, but his strikeout rate of 24 percent last season is just a little too high. If anything, that rate figures to rise as he climbs the ladder, so Baddoo may benefit from being a bit more aggressive early in the count from time-to-time. He could also use some refinement in the field. What’s next? After spending the entire 2018 season with Cedar Rapids, Baddoo figures to spend plenty of his time in Fort Myers this year. Not only does the competition become more advanced, but the Florida State League is also a notorious pitcher’s environment. It should serve for a great measuring stick for Baddoo. This is the second straight year Baddoo has slotted 10th in our rankings. With this upcoming season serving as somewhat of a make or break year in terms of his prospect stock, he could shoot up the list or he could drop down, but I’d bet against a three-peat in the 10 spot. Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda 19. Jorge Alcala 18. LaMonte Wade 17. Zack Littell 16. Gilberto Celestino 15. Yunior Severino 14. Ben Rortvedt 13. Ryan Jeffers 12. Nick Gordon 11. Stephen Gonsalves 10. Akil Baddoo 9. Coming Soon Get to know more about these five Minnesota Twins prospects and much more in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It’s available in paperback or as an eBook.
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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 16-20
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can tell you his overall swinging strike rate was eight percent in September. Not terrible, but he wasn't facing the stiffest competition either. That will need to improve. Like a lot of guys in the high minors, I think there's still some work being done on how he can most effectively use his pitches. I definitely think he could benefit from some more time working against Triple-A hitters. I was a bit surprised they gave him those couple looks earlier in the season, but he was on the 40 man, so I guess why not?- 47 replies
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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 16-20
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is the golden question. If you think the power will come, he's way too low on our list. If not, he might be a few spots too high, though legit center fielders don't grow on trees. He doesn't even turn 20 for another couple weeks, so trying to predict where he ends up physically is tough. So I think we've kind of hedged our bets in a way with this ranking, which I'm perfectly fine with.- 47 replies
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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 16-20
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think you can honestly start considering Celestino and Alcala as high as fifth. This is a potential five-tool center fielder and a guy who throws triple-digit heat. The tools are elite. Collectively, I think we took more of a pessimistic view on both for this list. I tend to be a bit conservative in my rankings, so I'm comfortable with where they ended up, but I wouldn't bat an eye at a list that had either one comfortably inside the top 10.- 47 replies
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