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mazeville

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Everything posted by mazeville

  1. Wow. Kid has a four-figure OPS, just hit his sixth homer of the minor league season and now has a .340 batting average ... but we're focused only on those 24 strikeouts? Many of which occurred when he first went down? There's no guarantee that he will suddenly thrive in the major leagues. But he's clearly figured something out at AAA. He's cut down on the strikeouts and he's hitting the cover off of the ball right now. He's doing exactly what is asked. It's OK to be optimistic.
  2. Um ... LOTS of people are worried about Buxton's minor league K rate, especially since he's gone down to AAA. You not worrying about it doesn't mean nobody is worrying about it. But the only way you find out if he can improve on his major league K rate is to have him with the big club. I'd imagine that will happen with a couple of more weeks of AAA dominance. It's getting awfully difficult to ignore his performance. My guess is that the Twins spent too much time messing with Buxton and the result was an increase in strikeouts to an already strikeout-prone hitter. Also, he probably wasn't ready to begin with.
  3. For those of you who worry about Buxton's K rate ... Mike Trout had about a 20 percent K rate in AA and AAA before he was called up (he had 16 strikeouts in 92 plate appearances in AAA before being called up, a 17.4% k rate). Not saying Buxton will be Trout. But the fact is, he's going to strike out a LOT in the first couple of years in the majors before he cleans that up. You just have to get used to it and let him be him.
  4. It does and it doesn't. Seth started out saying that he believes this team still has a chance. My whole point is that they don't. Not one bit. Frankly, I think that the Twins' trades have to start NOW -- start with Fernando Abad while he has some trade value as well as guys like Plouffe. The Twins are far better off if they're realistic about their chances. And contention is not at all realistic.
  5. Hey! He hasn't given up runs in the simple majority of innings! Is that what we're basing things on? Really? There is no statistic or measure that indicates anything but a pitcher who is clearly overmatched, or at the very least having a deer-in-the-headlights experience in the majors.
  6. Four starts. 10+ ERA. He had one decent start. One mediocre start. Two bad starts. There is exactly nothing wrong with sending him down. His WHIP is 2. He's walking 7 batters per nine innings. His FIP is 7. He is pitching terribly. There is no defense of this.
  7. Um ... I get this. But there is no chance -- ZERO -- that the Twins even sniff the playoffs this year. To even get to .500, which is not yet sniffing the playoffs, the Twins would have to go 71-54. Not impossible, I get it. But that's a rather major reversal. Essentially, the Twins would have to go from playing like a 44-win team, which is their current pace, to playing like a 92-win team, just to get to .500. Want them to make the playoffs? Then they have to play more like a 100-win team. Not going to happen. And it's not just the rookies that are killing this team. Sano is not playing to his capability. Plouffe is just Plouffe -- a good, but not great, third baseman. Dozier is playing more like he did in the second half of last year than he did in the first half. Mauer is reverting to his 2015 form. The bullpen stinks. Phil Hughes has a bloated ERA. Ricky Nolasco has improved but is mediocre. Ervin Santana is OK but not great. The catchers can't hit. And they can barely catch. The defense is bad. The bullpen is awful. All that said, I understand this strategy. But the only reason I would consider a veteran-focused lineup at this point is to rebuild some trade value among guys like Dozier, Plouffe and various bullpen arms. The Twins absolutely must give up on any idea that they're going to compete this year. Because they won't. And the sooner they understand that reality, the better this will be. What an ugly dang season.
  8. How was it not necessary? Something is clearly not clicking. His ERA is sky-high - it was well over 6 with an unusual 5 BB/9 before he started, and then he gave up eight runs in the first inning. Get him down, rebuild his confidence, and have someone else start.
  9. Real bummer but a necessary move.
  10. Again, he has a 6.28 ERA. He walks 5 batters per nine innings. And though he strikes out more than 11 per nine innings, his FIP is nearly 6. He has hardly dominated. I personally think he should stay and be allowed to develop here. But the Twins would hardly be out of their minds sending him down for a bit longer.
  11. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Are you talking about the same Twins, with the same front office, that I'm talking about? Berrios has a 6.28 ERA. He is a rookie with options. Barring some superstrong performance in the next start or two I'd fully expect him to be demoted to AAA. I'm not saying that SHOULD happen, I'm saying that will happen. Because this front office gives playing time to veterans and makes rookies perfect their craft in the minors, even when the team has zero chance at the playoffs. As I said, I think Hughes should be in the 'pen until he works through his issues. But as long as Berrios has a 6-plus ERA, the Twins will send him down.
  12. This is the Twins we're talking about here. It's basically either Duffey or Berrios. Berrios has a 6-plus ERA and has walked 5 batters per nine innings. The Twins will look at those numbers and tell Berrios to go "dominate" at AAA.
  13. Ervin Santana is technically 1.25 years into his deal. His deal started last year, and he got suspended for half the year. So there's no issue there. Santana is an effective starter this year, with a 3.38 ERA and nearly a strikeout an inning. He has only two more seasons on his contract after this year that pays him about $14 million a year, so while he might not fetch a massive prospect haul, I have to believe he'd fetch something. And the Twins at this point need to go young. Frankly, I'd probably rather get rid of Nolasco or Hughes. Hughes has no trade value. But Nolasco has decent secondary numbers and if you put him on a team with decent defense -- or maybe to the NL -- he might get the team something. Also, Nolasco has only one year on his deal after this. As for whether it's wise for the Twins to get rid of free agents -- I don't think that matters that much at all. Do you honestly think that Santana and Nolasco want to keep pitching for a losing team? They'll get their money. And they might get an opportunity to pitch for a contender -- while also building some value for their next contract. You can't say that Ricky Nolasco, who has a 4.87 ERA but a 4.00 FIP, wouldn't relish the chance of going back to the National League and playing for a team that has good outfield defense.
  14. What should happen: Twins make room for Gibson by putting Hughes in the bullpen or by trading Nolasco or Ervin Santana. What will happen: Twins will make room for Gibson by sending down Berrios.
  15. Agree with some, but not all of this. First, trading Plouffe should be at the top of any fix-the-Twins agenda. Trade Plouffe. Put Sano at third and put Arcia in right field, with Rosario in left and Santana in center until Buxton comes up. The problem with starting Arcia all the time is that your outfield defense suffers greatly. Rosario is struggling with the bat. But he brings some semblance of common sense to the outfield. I'd much rather trade Dozier than Polanco. You're not going to get much of a return for an unproven rookie, even one on the team's top 10 list. To be honest, the best spot for Polanco might still be shortstop. But this team apparently doesn't want Polanco at short. So whatevs. I still think the Twins should be open to trading any number of players, including pitchers. I'd consider trading Abad, any starter not named Duffey or Berrios, Dozier, Plouffe, Arcia, Escobar. I'd ponder prospect-for-prospect trades. Anything to right this ship. Frankly, nothing should be off the table -- even a trade of Sano or Buxton if the deal were right. (That's "if the deal were right" so don't go assuming that I'd give them away.)
  16. You bring up a good point. And for what it's worth, I've long avoided taking this regime's word as gospel. But, that said, entering this year, Escobar was a serviceable shortstop. My thought is to trade Dozier mostly to get some sort of return. I'm assuming he'd bring something, given his years of team control at a relatively reasonable rate. And he's improved at the plate of late ...
  17. Except they've said repeatedly that Polanco can't stick at short. I'd agree it'd be nice to put him at SS. But if he can't play short, I'd get him at 2B as soon as possible.
  18. Twins also need to consider trading Dozier (insert Polanco) and Kyle Gibson (he'd generate a good return assuming he returns to form).
  19. If I were the Twins I would look into trading anyone that could bring back value. It starts with Plouffe. Yes, the Twins should look into trading Gibson -- assuming he comes back and improves -- as well as Nolasco if he can keep his ERA down. Here are some other names: Brian Dozier. Absolutely the team should look to move Brian Dozier. Assuming he picks up the average a bit, he has some value left and plays good up-the-middle defense. Oswaldo Arcia or Byung Ho Park. I hate the idea of trading either of these guys. But I'm hopeful that Arcia has rebuilt some value. And Park could definitely bring something in return. Whoever doesn't get traded should be the everyday DH. I'm not saying all of these guys should be traded. But the team should definitely look at trading as many of these players as possible. The issue, of course, is that this front office isn't big on fire sales. It gets married to current players and likes signing guys to ridiculous extensions. But, when they DO pull off trades, they usually do a good job of it. So I trust them to make trades. But I don't trust that they will actually do it.
  20. I understand Terry Ryan has respect throughout baseball. But, honestly, do we not think it's not time to bring in someone from outside the organization? Terry has had five years to fix this. He hasn't fixed it. A few points: * Yes, he helped build the farm system; but he SHOULD have built up the farm system because the team has had top draft choices for years now and some of these top prospects (like Miguel Sano) were actually signed under Bill Smith. Relatively few of the team's top prospects have come to the team via trade. * Most of his free agent signings have not worked. Even the players who did work initially, Phil Hughes and Kurt Suzuki, were then resigned to longer-term deals and have regressed badly. * He had badly misaligned the roster. There are too many poor fielding corner infielders/outfielders/DH types; not enough guys who can get on base and few stud fielders. This team badly needs a couple of trades to realign the roster. (As a side note: The piss-poor fielding likely cost the team a win last night, or at least extra innings - a better left fielder likely gets Adam Jones' hit in the 9th). * The bullpen. Oh, the bullpen. That bullpen has cost the team several games this season, and everybody KNEW in the offseason that it needed to be fixed. And while Terry Ryan wants to reserve spots for his young arms like Burdi and Chargois, those guys aren't up with the team. Again, Terry Ryan is owed a lot of credit for the 2000s resurgence. But it really is time to overhaul the front office and bring in some outsiders.
  21. Agree with a lot but not all of this. The OF defense IS a crime. Adam Jones' hit in the 9th would have been caught by an outfielder better than Arcia. You can't tell me that a lot of the current pitching problems, especially with Hughes, aren't due at least in part because of that awful outfield defense. Kepler and Buxton can't get up here soon enough. Definitely trade Plouffe and put Sano at third. That sacrifices some infield defense. But at least it improves outfield defense. And start playing Polanco for God's sakes.
  22. To me, this is where Hughes' fall from his 2014 highs really stinks. Just say for instance that Hughes performs to that level this year. He would certainly attract a Swihart-type player in return. And more, in fact. Unfortunately, he is pitching like garbage. That's been a big part of the problem with the Twins' struggles in recent years. Players who should be tradable haven't played well enough to generate the strong returns that would give a nice boost to the team's comeback. And players who do play well are greeted with shouts of "Don't trade him! He's too good!" Or they're local players. The best we can hope for at this point is for Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier to start playing well enough to generate trade interest so we can perhaps pry a good catching prospect from a contender.
  23. These are panic moves. Dumping JR Graham and Ryan O'Rourke reek of panic moves. O'Rourke was not great. But he was REALLY good at getting lefties out. Graham was a Rule 5 pick who was on the 25-man roster all last year and had options left. Murphy had to go down. I don't even mind calling up Mastro. But why not send Rosario and his .200 batting average down? I don't get any of this.
  24. I think the Twins have badly misused Alex Meyer, and it explains in a nutshell why the Twins are in the position they are in today. Meyer should have been starting for this team in 2014 when they had no realistic chance of winning and the team was badly in need of starters. Instead, the Twins decided to sign free agents like Phil Hughes (good initial signing, bad resigning) and Ricky Nolasco (ugh). And we had to tolerate Mike Pelfrey. Other guys who started that year included Yohan Pino, Sam Deduno and Kris Johnson. That year, in AAA, Meyer had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, 10.6 K/9. Yes, he walked too many. But for a team that had lost 90 games a year for three straight seasons and was trotting out the above guys and NEEDED to develop a topline starter, there was no reason to keep him down. Instead, they kept him in AAA. His confidence got shot. The next year he went into the tank and now he's pressing so badly you can see it in his face. This year, they call him up, pitch him once in nine days and then send him down after one three-inning start and just 65 pitches. My God. I get that maybe he just doesn't have the mental fortitude to succeed up here. But this was your top pitching prospect just 15 months ago. He needs a much longer leash than he's been given. He should have been called up far earlier. Sam Deduno walked four batters per nine innings and got nine starts in 2014 and didn't strike out nearly as many batters as would have Alex Meyer. I'm not saying that Meyer pitching in 2014 would have turned him into a stud. But it might have developed him the right way. Instead, the Twins signed free agents for a team that was losing badly year after year. Those pitchers didn't prevent the team from losing 90 games in 2014 (and, in fact, did little to get them on the cusp of the playoffs in 15) and meanwhile the guy with the best stuff in the system is languishing and unable to get more than a token start. This team is too aggressive in promoting some young position players. It is the exact opposite with pitchers. Quick: Name the last good starter the Twins developed on their own. I don't know, maybe they should do something different. And one thing they might do differently is actually reward players who continue to perform year after year in the minors.
  25. Except that it is an issue with replay. Replay takes a long time. And that's extended games further, which is just exacerbating a problem that's been evident for some time now ...
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