glunn

I am expecting a huge drop if Trump wins and a significant (but short-lived) pop if Clinton wins. Overall, I am bearish and holding about 50% in cash, waiting for the next 2008 level crash. I am also wary of any company that is paying a dividend less than 2% and that is not both profitable and growing. Over the long run, I believe that the best investment will likely be apartment buildings, but real estate values go in cycles and we are at an all-time high. I invest through syndications, because I don't want the management burdens, and my overall returns have exceeded 15% per year. However, I have passed on these opportunities for the past two years or so, because I think that a major pullback is likely. That said, I have a buy order on APTS on the theory that it should do well over the long run.

Moderator note -- the bickering in this thread needs to stop.

Great article!

Great interview. He seems like a solid young man. I wonder how people are evaluating his upside.

On a more positive note, the #1 pick is now a lock.

The fact that Suzuki is catching baffles me. I would think that Murphy should be out there getting experience, or at least Centeno.

Are you trying to revive the eternal debate about Ginger versus Mary Ann?

Happy Birthday Brian!

Here is a link to an interesting debate about Anthopoulis and other options: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/twins-considering-alex-anthopoulos-for-president-of-baseball-operations.html Some people prefer Ben Cherington. They both seem interesting to me.

More on Wiel -- http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605530#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

I have to work today and am missing the game, but am glad that people are posting on this thread.

There has been lots of discussion of Jim Pohlad's diagnosis of "total system failure." The owners are business people who rely on baseball experts to run the team, In one interview, Mr. Pohlad said the following: "I’m the type to stand back and let the manager do his job. That’s something I learned from my dad, he would find people he could relate to and had confidence in, and then he let them go and run a business....I believe in that....n this case, I don’t know more about baseball that Paul Molitor (manager), Terry Ryan (general manager) and Dave St. Peter (president). So I try to put that lesson from my dad in practice." https://thatisgreat.co/category/interviews/ From a business perspective, this hands-off approach makes sense to me, but only there is a system in place that promotes accountability, particularly when the end product is failure. Based on the interview, it appears that Mr. Pohlad made an effort to figure out what's going wrong and identified three possible explanations: 1. "One theory: the team isn’t as good as we thought it was." 2. "Maybe we’re doing something wrong in developing players." 3. Maybe last year was just a fluke. Maybe they appeared to play better than they really did. When you look at it, they only had one winning month last year, May, they were something like 20-7, and that kind of carried the whole season. Maybe we had unrealistic expectations for this year." In my mind, explanation #1 and explanation #3 are two sides of the same coin, and explanation #2 is a red flag from a business perspective. As a businessperson, these statements suggest to me that the Twins organization needs greater accountability. Obviously it's difficult to measure something like player development, because every player is unique. On the other hand, it seems to me that the two most important factors for a successful organization are player evaluation (scouting for the draft, scouting international players and scouting potential trades) and player development (coaching and decisions regarding promotion). If a team can excel at player evaluation and player development, then that team will likely succeed over the long run. Obviously, there is a luck factor. Sometimes a team drafts a diamond in the rough (Mike Trout) and often a great looking prospect flops. But I think that there should be accountability for scouts who tag prospects who fail and who pass on prospects like Trout. I would hope that the Twins have scouts file detailed reports as to the prospects who they are scouting and that such reports are in a format that promotes intelligent evaluation of each scout's ability to predict success. For example if a scout notes that a prospect has below average bat speed, then the development people should focus on that. Such records promote accountability and improvement. If the scout failed to note poor bat speed than that can be identified as the scout's mistake. If the coaches failed to help the player compensate for poor bat speed, then they should be able to show what they tried after reading the scout's report and why they failed. From a business perspective, I would think that once a player comes into the system there should be a detailed computer record as to the player's strengths and weaknesses in every relevant category and that detailed records should be maintained showing what is being done and what needs to be done to improve every aspect of that player's game. For example, in the case of Buxton, every coach, manager and player development executive should have had access to reports going back to the first day that Buxton was scouted that include evaluations as to his ability to deal with curveballs and reports as to every effort made to improve this aspect of his game. I don't know whether the Twins maintain such a database or whether it is sufficiently detailed to promote accountability. Mr. Pohlad's use of the word "maybe" in the context of player development suggests to me that the Twins are not effectively using computer databases to create accountability. Not to pick on Buxton, but another example is his seeming inability to bunt. This is based on my subjective eye test, but I have seen little league players who seem to have better fundamentals. In particular, if the ball is high then a player should pull the bat back,, and jabbing at the ball is a bad technique. In my ideal world, the Twins would have been tracking Buxton's bunting skills from the beginning and there should be records as to who worked with him on bunting, what they did and what they reported to the next set of coaches every time that Buxton moved up the ladder. There are lots of bunting drills. Which ones were used with Buxton and what has been done to help him with bunting? It seems to me that considering the financial investment that the team has made in Buxton, as well as the opportunity cost, the people running the team should be able to track every aspect of his development and make sure that all future speedsters have an excellent grasp on bunting fundamentals. When I coached little league there was one team whose infielders all had great hands. At the end of the season, I asked their coach about this. His secret was using tennis balls for infield practice so that the kids could get used to weird hops without fear of getting hit in the face. There are some drills that are better than others. A a good database could give the Twins an edge over other teams by identifying the drills that pay off the most. Hopefully, there is a lot of accountability that we are not seeing and there will be meaningful changes in the organization's practices and personnel. Ideally, the team will bring in high level people from more consistently successful organizations like the Cardinals who can suggest proven strategies that work better than what the Twins are doing now. With Buxton's speed, bunting should have been a priority from day 1. In my mind, maintaining accountability is very important to maintaining long term success in any organization. If something is working then it should be repeated and enhanced. If something is not working, then a change of approach and/or personnel should be made promptly. Without accountability, mistakes are repeated and ineffective personnel injure the business. Computer databases can promote accountability, but only if they are carefully designed to track relevant information. I would hope that the Twins are investing enough in this. Mr. Pohlad portrays himself as a business person who delegates to baseball people and I have no problem with that. But it seems to me that as a business person, Mr. Pohlad would be wise to insist on a very high level of accountability within the business. If I were a team owner and had a Buxton who could not bunt, I would like to know that someone in the organization can look at a detailed record of Buxton's development and identify what happened. Did coaches try like hell to help Buxton learn the fundamentals of bunting? Or did coaches drop the ball on this? There should be a record within the organization so that if a player is having a problem with a fundamental skill then every coach and the relevant people in the FO can track the efforts to remedy this. Perhaps, the Twins' performance is ultimately attributable to not employing cutting edge business strategies. Fans sometimes complain that the owners run the team too much like a business. Perhaps the opposite is true? Perhaps the key is to start tracking players from the first day that they are scouted and maintaining a database that allows the relevant coaches and executives to evaluate which scouts are doing the best job and which coaches are getting the best results. Maybe the Twins are doing a lot of this already, but I am not seeing it on the field or in the media.

I like your thinking on this. It seems to me like he would be a great investment based on his track record.

Arguably, the Cardinals have the best GM in MLB. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2401663-ranking-mlbs-top-10-general-managers/page/12 I would guess that he might have a lieutenant who is ready for a promotion. I hope that someone takes a close look at bringing in someone from the Cardinals for one of the open positions.

I agree with Chief. I would add that it seems to me that the minor league development program is deficient. One example -- Buxton's approach to bunting. Buxton is fast. If he were effective at bunting then he could get on base a lot more. Instead, we see him committing too early, which allows the pitcher to elevate the pitch, then Buxton tries to bunt balls at the letters or higher, which is always a bad idea. Also, I don't remember him pulling the bat back and letting a high pitch go by. Also, I have seen him jab at the ball, which is something that I taught my little league players not to do. This is basic coaching, and in light of Buxton's speed, bunting should have been a priority from day 1. I could give lots of examples of what I see as mediocre player development; however, I am not an expert. Fortunately, there are genuine experts outside the organization who could be hired to give impartial opinions in this regard. I also suspect that there has a system wide failure to track performance and hold people accountable. It seems to me that there should be a thick file of reports that track every aspect of a player's game, beginning with his first scouting report and ending with yesterday's game. Again using Buxton as an example, there should be scouting reports that analyze his bunting skills (and other skills) and that meticulously track his progress at every level through the system. Jack, you are a computer guy and I suspect that you do some of this, but with all due respect if I were the GM I would want to see the reports that I just described and would be trying to find out who was supposed to teach Buxton and why they failed. Finally, I am not fond of the "country club" label, but I agree with those who believe that when an organization is failing for an extended period of time then it makes sense to bring in people from organizations that are succeeding. For all I know, Rob Anthony might be an effective GM, but unless he is willing to bring in new blood and new ideas I will not be optimistic that things will get much better. And if I were the owner, I would ask Mr. Anthony why my speedster stud CF does not seem to have mastered the fundamentals of bunting.

It seems to me that he is committing to bunt too soon and that he needs to learn to pull the bat back when the pitch is high. It is very difficult to bunt successfully when the pitch is high.

I keep wishing that Parker would do an analysis of Buxton's approach to bunting. I also wish that Buxton would spend a week with this guy:

This video does not give me comfort. It looks like the ball is coming in at less than 70 mph and without any movement. I never coached beyond little league, but I would like to see him practicing with actual fastballs and curveballs, or with a batting machine that is coming in at 95 or 100 mph. Maybe he has done other drills, but from the games I have seen his bunting skills are disappointing. Based on his overall skill set, I wonder whether the coaching has been competent.

It seems to me that the focus should be on playing the younger players, which will likely result in more losses in the short run, while giving them experience that will likely result in more wins next year.

It seems to me that Cody has listed some promising candidates, but I would hope that someone looks closely at candidates from the Cardinals organization. I will be deeply disappointed if the Twins do not bring in a total outsider.

Moderator note -- please keep this thread respectful of other posters.

Another great report and another good day for the system.

I think that VR is the next big thing, but am not willing to bet on who will win this market. My surest bet is that there will be a lot more old people, so I am heavy on SNH and am looking to get into NRZ. I endured a big dip in SNH, but recently it has come back and in the meantime the dividends exceeded 8%. These may be especially good plays for an IRA or other retirement plan where the taxes on dividends are deferred. They are not high flyers, but seem pretty safe over the long run.

I am nervous about the entire market and am looking for safe havens.

Ouch.