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SarasotaBill

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Everything posted by SarasotaBill

  1. SarasotaBill
    Everyone - great article and thread. I think the most underrated aspect is ball movement. 90Mph with movement is better than a straight 93Mph. Movement creates Ks and weak hits. The Pirates have maximized their pitchers' effectiveness by throwing two seamers vs four seamers. The radar gun won't like it but the results are the proof. Regarding the pull shift, you can throw off speed to the outside of the plate. However, I've seen the shift beaten when the pitcher throws a FB on the outside corner. There is no magic bullet but the shift takes advantage of percentages and forces hitters into uncomfortable reactions.
  2. SarasotaBill
    Since Ryan has come back, the Twins have drafted power arms instead of control/finesse pitchers, made the May & Meyer trades, and built the team to be good after a few years, The Twins were a mess when Ryan came back. The Twins have the pieces and top prospects to be good from 2016 to 2022.
  3. SarasotaBill
    My Ranking by Position: SP - Berrios,Meyer,Stewart,May,Thorpe,Gonsalves,Rogers,Duffey,Ynoa,Hu,Romero,Jorge RP- Burdi,Z.Jones,Chargois,Reed,Tonkin,Melotakis,Cederoth,Curtiss,Adam,Landa,Clay C - Turner,Silva,Garver,Fernandez,Navaretto 1B- Diaz,Hicks 2B/SS- Gordon,Polanco,Vielma,Michael,Hinojosa,Mejia 3B- Sano,Goodrum OF- Buxton,Rosario,Walker,Kepler,Minier,Harrison,Larson,Murphy
  4. SarasotaBill
    I would take the upside of Thorpe and Gonsalves over Rogers.
  5. SarasotaBill
    Stanton salary could be 13M, 18M, and then he's a free agent (25-30M per year). The required prospects and his future salaries make trading for Stanton unrealistic.
  6. SarasotaBill
    Since Thorpe and Gonsalves excelled against older competition, I would have them in the top ten. Also, Diaz and Silva are too low for me since I put more weight on potential. Vargas has a much better track record as a hitter than Walker. Even though Walker has great power, he faces long odds to become a more consistent hitter. Biggest point - the Twins farm system has never been better in recent years
  7. SarasotaBill
    Twins need a new voice in the dugout. A new pitching approach. A new way managing the roster - platoons & defensive shifts. Steinbach or Molitor or outside the organization?
  8. SarasotaBill
    Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team. Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did. Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.
  9. SarasotaBill
    KC is a wildcard team and Shields is a free agent. I don't want to copy that formula. If you want a Ace, then sign Lester or Shields as a free agent. Only trade a top prospect for a young cost controlled player. Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).
  10. SarasotaBill
    Pelfrey and Nolasco were awlful signings. Pelfrey - injury prone history Nolasco's ERA last five years in NL - 3.70, 4.48, 4.67, 4.51, 5.06 Ryan needs to sign an Ace (Lester) to make the Twins relevant. Cost of Nolasco + Pelfrey is close to the cost of an Ace (buy quality). Without a true ace signing: - The Twins will be irrelevant again in 2015 -The bullpen will get crushed again (young pitchers tend to be inconsistent) - The top propspects debuting next Summer will create a spark of interest - By August, most people's interest will turn to football
  11. SarasotaBill
    2015 is a transition year unless they sign Lester or other ace. If no ace signings, start Pelfrey for first three months and try to trade him before the deadline. If he is awlful in ST, then stick him in the bullpen and see if he can find sucess there and if so then try to trade him before the deadline.
  12. SarasotaBill
    2015 improvement 1. Sign Lester as a free agent. All good teams need a ace. Team improves because Lester is much better than the #6 pitcher and he helps protect the bullpen. 2. Young players improve. Most players are like Tori Hunter who need time to adjust to the majors. 3. Use platoons. Schafer / RHB in LF and likewise to a lesser extent at CF, SS, and 3B. 4. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios will earn their way up sometime in 2015.
  13. SarasotaBill
    Lose as much as possible. 1. Better draft pick (Duke and VA have top pitchers). 2. Convince Ryan and ownership that a true ace is needed and sign Lester for 100 to 120 million.
  14. SarasotaBill
    Here's my plan: 1. Sign Lester (back up is Shields) - you need a Ace to make Hughes a very good 2 and Gibson a good 3. Besides being better than the #6 pitcher, an Ace will greatly reduce the load on the bullpen. 2. Sign a cheap RH LF to platoon with Shafer (Ideal would be Rios but probably too expensive). 3. At trade deadline, if you can't sign Hughes to an extension, then try to trade him for a top ten prospect (like the Cubs did with Samardzija). 4. Have Milone and the Meyer/May (whoever doesn't win #5 spot) in AAA ready to fill in. 5. Have Hicks, Sano, Buxton earn their way onto the team next year (July - September).
  15. SarasotaBill
    I believe the Twins followed BAA strategy. Pitchers break down (Tottle, Bashore, Wimmers). You never have enough pitchers. Twins went after high upside, high risk rather than soft tossing SPs. For the most part, the Twins got value (according to BA and other rankings).
  16. SarasotaBill
    Do you want "pitch to contact with better control" or "higher velocity but more risk"? I'll take the higher potential with higher risk in rounds 3 to 10.
  17. SarasotaBill
    I know I'll be in the minority but I love the Twins draft. Big time arms
  18. SarasotaBill
    Ryan said they needed LHP. Hopefully their GA scout does better here than with Bard.
  19. SarasotaBill
    Super Two, Working on secondary pitches and FB command, AAA all star game, July Futures Game in MN, and trade deadline - all possible reasons to delay until mid-July or later. Let's see May and Meyer have great Junes and discuss then.
  20. SarasotaBill
    Adjustments to adjustments. Mauer needs to make adjustments (get closer to the plate, be more aggressive early in the count, ....) or Trade him to Boston after the season - (Joe will be tired of the shift if he doesn't adjust).
  21. SarasotaBill
    Sano was the exception and he is their top int'l prospect. With 18 million coming off the books at the end of 2014 (Willingham, Correia, Burton, and Kubel), spend the money on young int'l free agents and signing team friendly long term deals with pre-free agency players (like Rays did with Longeria). 2014 & 2015 is a transition period for the Twins. Unlike Mike Trout. most prospects take awhile to succeed at the MLB level. Every decision should be based on what's best for the period of 2016 to 2022.
  22. SarasotaBill
    Take BAA. If Gordon is not BAA, then spend the whole 2014 Int'l Pool Money if necessary on the top Int'l SS.
  23. SarasotaBill
    Article said Twins have pitchers who have below average strike out rates and bad defensive out fielders.
  24. SarasotaBill
    Carrying a prospect on the 40 man roster for two years is normal. The twins will carry Polanco, Kepler, and Vargas for at least two years before they get a sniff of MLB. There are many examples of guys taken in Rule V while in Class A - Johann Santana, Jorge Bell, .. Bell had to play for the Jays as a 21 year old, was in AAA the next year and most of the following year. Three years after being taken in the Rule 5 draft, he started a streak of nine years averaging over 20 HRs a year.
  25. SarasotaBill
    Protected Polanco, Kepler, and Vargas from the likes of Astros, Cubs, .... Darnell - LP at AAA - likely to be plucked in Rule 5 Once they sign two FA pitchers - who gets dropped: - Albers? - Johnson? - Duensing - not offered arb?
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