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whydidnt

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Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    I just read through most of this thread. It seems to me, there is way more focus on Hicks on this topic than there should be. While I think Hicks has potential, I'm not sure that this trade on it's surface is awful. For me, the point is that bringing in Murphy, if that's your only move at C, is another example of the organization settling for average. THAT is my frustration with Ryan. Whenever he deals, signs a FA, etc. the guys he brings in almost all have a low ceiling. The best they will be is above average. Maybe Park changes that, but when we see the final cost for him, I'm not convinced it's that big of an investment. In any event, Ryan's history is of settling for mediocrity, and that's why I am not optimistic about our chances to win a Championship under this regime. Oh and for the Hicks conversation. His K% declined significantly last year. To me that shows he figured "something" out and may be poised to finally break out in the coming year.
  2. whydidnt
    Agree 100%. My complaint is that it seems we set our sites too low. Maybe it's not the end of the Catcher acquisitions, but I think it is. I would have rather they held onto Hicks as an insurance/platoon option or packaged him with a more valuable piece to land someone we could really count on at C.
  3. whydidnt
    Well for me, it's not that I don't think he won't take chances. He does all the time. My problem is that he almost always takes chances on low-upside guys, just like Murphy. The pitchers we have signed over the last couple of years almost by definition were guys that we took a chance on, but none of them really had any chance of being much better than average. My opinion is that he's risk adverse. That isn't always a bad thing, but I think he takes it to the extreme when building a team. Even Ryan didn't expect the Twins to win the bidding for Park, who on the service appears to be in conflict with my previous paragraph. Based upon his reaction to winning the bidding process, I think he was hoping to give us another, we tried, but couldn't get him statement.
  4. whydidnt
    I have no problem dealing Hicks, though I think he offered quite a bit of value to the Twins to start 2016. It would have been nice for the Twins to have flexibility to send Buxton to AAA to start the year and get some seasoning. I'm not thrilled with Murphy as anything more than backup long term though. I'm not convinced he's either a good enough hitter or defender to be anything else. Hope I'm wrong. IF this is the only move the Twins make to upgrade the C position, I will be disappointed. It seems like another move where the best we aspire to is maybe average. You can't win championships with average players up and down your lineup an that's really where the Twins stand too frequently, and you can add guys like Plouffe, Escobar, Rosario, Mauer, and now Murphy to that list.
  5. whydidnt
    Good post. I think he was also the last of the top college relievers the Twins drafted in 2012 with the idea to convert him into a starter. Interesting that the last one drafted is the one that seems to have succeeded (at least so far).
  6. whydidnt
    I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year? I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?
  7. whydidnt
    Really? I'm not sure it's the same people. I know there were people clamoring for the Twins to add good pitchers, but don't think they are the ones complaining about the contracts now. Some of us didn't complain about the signings because the Twins had plenty of money to spend, but I was among those that wished they had aimed higher. From my perspective the 3 guys you mentioned, May, Berrios and Duffey (especially Duffey) are all question marks as well. I can almost guaranty that at least one of those guys will never be a quality major league starter, just based upon the history of young pitchers. One of the veterans is likely to get hurt as well, so the "blocking" everyone is concerned about probably won't turn into an issue. We can point to May this year, but that is much on the Twins desire to have him in the pen, then anything else.
  8. whydidnt
    I don't really understand how this would help. The owners in the NBA and NHL still had to pay the player for the contract, the amnesty just allowed them to exclude the deal from the salary cap. The MLB has no cap, so amnesty wouldn't really help the Twins, who are so far from the luxury tax limit that it's really not relevant.
  9. whydidnt
    The Twins 2015 Salary is still $16M below the league average, even with these contracts. They also likely have higher than average revenue.Money is not the issue. There is no guaranty that May, Duffy, Berrios and Myer are going to perform better than the guys you mentioned, and especially in the short term it's very likely that at 2-3 of the four aren't going to perform well. That's just the nature of pitching prospects. My point is just that while the contracts aren't great, they really are only an anchor if the Twins voluntarily let them be, they still have plenty of money to spend IF they want to. It's not the money, or the years, it's how the Twins decide to deploy their resources. If they allow money already committed to a guy like Nolasco to shade their judgement, then they get what they deserve, but they have the resources to overcome the mistake if they want.
  10. whydidnt
    Well, as the GM, both Smith and Ryan are the one's making the final decision on not only who they sign or trade, but also on who they hire to advise them. At the end of the day, that means they have A LOT to do with who is playing for the team and how much they are paid. What's the point of having a GM if they aren't accountable for the team on the field?
  11. whydidnt
    I don't think this is accurate. Rule 5 guys have to stay on the Major League roster for the entire season or be offered back to the previous team. Not saying he should have been pitching in that situation, just that if the Twins want to keep him, he's got to be on the 25 man all year.
  12. whydidnt
    If the Twins stand pat this off-season then you pretty well nailed it. I tend to agree they will stick Berrios at AAA to start the year (judging by recent treatment of top pitching prospects) and I'd be very surprised if Meyer made the team out of Spring Training as well. I would really like to see the Twins play Sano at 3B more the rest of 2015 so they can determine if he can fill that position in the future. If so, I think they have to shop Plouffe for a reliable RP or C this off-season. Plouffe is a decent 3B, but if you can leverage him for another need and Sano can replace him you do it. Hopefully the Twins will bring in a veteran C of sorts to supplement Suzuki. Not much out there, but even a guy like Navarro would be an upgrade over the current pairing.
  13. whydidnt
    Good point, plus if you think there is good chance that Berrios is one of your best 5 starters in 2016, he's going to need a spot before 2016 rosters are set anyway.
  14. whydidnt
    Regarding Nolasco and Santana. I didn't hate the signings at the time, but I sure didn't love them either. Ryan paid close to or a little more than market rate. However, to me rather than spending 12-13 on each of these guys and 6 to Pelfrey, etc, I would have much rather combined the salaries and brought in a true stud that you could likely count on. My problem is that the organization always tends to think small. The exception being the Mauer deal, and that was a special circumstance. Rather than competing for the 3rd-4th best FA pitcher, go for one of the top 2. If your going to blow a pile of money, you might as well be sure you are getting quality. At some point the GM has to be responsible for the decisions he makes, right? When does that happen with Ryan. I'm having a hard time finding to many "good" decisions being made regarding the major league roster over the last couple of years.
  15. whydidnt
    Yes, because the rest of the league has gotten smarter and adapted. Teams are placing more emphasis on quality arms in the bullpen than ever. But the Twins continue to manage the pen, like much of the rest of their operation like it's still 2005. Lavelle's blog post last night hit it on the head. Last offseason the Astros invested in Neshek and Gregorson to shore up the pen, while the Twins dumpster dived for Stauffer. Wouldn't you rather be where the Astros are right now? I don't agree that's it's hind site at all. Most of us thought the bullpen looked awful before the season, and have been proven right. The problem isn't Graham, the Twins have carried 12 or 13 RPs all year, you can afford to have one rule 5 guy out of 7 or 8 RPs. The problem is the other 5-6 guys that really aren't very good, so they don't eat enough innings and you end up burning through 4 guys a night.
  16. whydidnt
    Of course there is no way to prove if keeping Berrios in the minors was the right thing for him or the team. You can't go back and redo things after the fact. I'm in the camp that the Twins tend to focus too much on young players flaws and not enough on their strengths. This means they keep marginal veterans around instead of promoting from within and we never really know what some of these guys would do if given a chance sooner.
  17. whydidnt
    Joke all you want, but I think it was a legitimate question, considering the original post and the organization's history regarding "new school" thinking.
  18. whydidnt
    I'd be curious to hear if the equipment is used. Is it installed at Hammond, but the scouts ignore it and rely on their eyes and radar guns? Kind of like how the Major league team has an analytic staff but we don't really see much use of their work (other than Molitor's shifts this year).
  19. whydidnt
    This is why I think the Twins had a legit shot at Tulowitzki if they wanted it. If Reyes really was an anchor in the deal, what could we have gotten him for? Of course, we'll never know what conversations, if any, were really held. But it sure seems like he could have been had without mortgaging the future. Funny, to me it looks like the Jays gave up more for abut 10 David Price starts, and no way those are more valuable than Tulowitzki, are they?
  20. whydidnt
    Really? What has he sold recently for a good return? I think the game has passed him by. Teams spend more and make quicker, more informed decisions than they did his first time around. He is still trying to run the team like early 80s version. I am seriously disappointed in his performance since returning. Tired of hearing how he built the farm system...he had super high picks every year people, he almost couldn't help but rebuild the farm system.
  21. whydidnt
    You also have to factor in that you can probably sign a guy comparable to Jepsen in the offseason for similar $ as he's likely to earn in arbitration. If he was a high value player that extra year of control has value, but he's just another average, to slightly above average reliever. The more I think about it, the more I don't understand this deal. If the Twins think they could seriously contend this year they should have done more, and if they don't, why give up 2 minor league guys for a middle reliever? Just don't understand the thought process.
  22. whydidnt
    Jones is 23 years old, still at high A, with an OPS of .714 and 110 Ks in 370 ABs. Some scouts think he will need to move to the OF, and others worry that his contact issues will prevent him from ever developing into a good hitter. Yes, he has higher upside than Hu, but I'm not sure how much, and if you include Tapia, and then look at Soria vs. Jepson, I think the Pirates made a better deal than the Twins.
  23. whydidnt
    Of course, Flags fly forever. If the moves pay off this year, then it won't really matter next, will it? Actually, their core of hitters is all signed through next year. 3/5's of their present rotation is set to be FA's though. However, they can likely re-sign Buerhle for less than the $19M he's making this year, or get a a better pitcher than him for that same amount. It will be interesting to see what they do to replace Estrada and Price, though. I think as it compares to the Twins, their situation going into next year really doesn't look worse. The Twins pitching seems to be more settled, but the bullpen still could be a mess. Toronto's lineup is multiple times better than the Twins and will likely remain that way.
  24. whydidnt
    In my previous post about RP trades, the Pirates landed Soria from the Tigers for a MI prospect that is probably going to end up in the OF and isn't a great hitting prospect at this point. Would rather have had Soria than Jepsen too. Perhaps the Tigers didn't want to trade in their own division though?
  25. whydidnt
    But, Clippard Papelbon and Lowe are all arguably better than Jepson - and in the case of Clippard the A's got a comparable player to Wu, not 2 players and ALSO included cash in the deal. Papelbon brought back a worse prospect - he wasn't a candidate for the Twins though, unless you wanted to see Perkins in the setup role, due to his no-trade clause. For Lowe, the Mariners got 3 guys, the best of which has a 4.78 ERA in rookie ball right now.Again, I like the Rays take better than of these deals. Then let's not forget about Cishek who really isn't much worse than Jepson, for a AA SP that nobody considers to be a great prospect and has bad control. It wasn't a good deal for the Twins, based upon the current market for RPs. It's also not the end of the world. Just seems we might have been able to do better if we would have been willing to act quicker rather than waiting until a couple of hours before the deadline.
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