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whydidnt

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Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    Hey, I would have liked to see Gibson, just because I'd like to see Gibson. Nothing wrong with giving Deduno a shot though. I don't necessarily have high hopes for him, but if nothing else he is a change of pace from the junk tossers we have in the other 4 spots of the rotation. Considering that with Deduno's tendency to high pitch counts and management's aversion to the same, it's possible we see a move to a 13 man staff to allow the bullpen some breathing room. If it was my call, I'd probably allow for Deduno to throw more pitches to get deeper in the game and not worry so much about reaching 100 pitches or whatever this years limit is. Not that I don't care about him getting hurt, but he's also not the type of prospect we have to over-protect.
  2. whydidnt
    Well, I just don't think that we can fully judge these decisions based upon less than 10 starts for all these guys. I'll even go out on a limb and say that even with the lousy starts that by the end of the year McCarthy and Marcum will outperform anyone on the Twins staff, and Villaneuva will be as good as any of the guys. I was never a proponent of signing Blanton or Saunders, they are more of the same.
  3. whydidnt
    I don't know, I think you could see these numbers as a #2 (or a number 1 for most Twins teams of recent vintage). There are a couple of positives too - he's been pretty consistently good, he's been healthy, he didn't get blown up while pitching in the AL last year. In any event he didn't get the "elite" money that guys like Sabathia, Hernandez, Grienke, Verlander have gotten, so it's a bit of a stetch to put his deal in the same breath as theirs or other "elite" pitchers. He got what the market for reliable #2-3 pitchers dictates, and frankly I think he's better than every one of the guys you listed that might be available this year. I will agree, though, that Sanchez wanted to stay in Detroit and it probably wouldn't have taken more either $'s or years to get him to come here. In any event, the Twins could have landed 3 starters with considerably more upside this year for roughly 15-20 Million, which they have available to spend - and still brought in Corriera if the were so fascinated with him. Guys like Marcum, McCarthy and Villanueva. Marcum and McCarthy have been disappointing so far, but McCarthy is showing signs of life and when you are bottom feeding you're going to have to accept that not every signing is going to work. I would have been much more excited about laying my money down to buy tickets if the Twins had spent a little in this manner during the offseason.
  4. whydidnt
    I have to agree that the quality of the pitchers is huge factor. But why are all these guys throwing fewer K's than they did before? Is it just the change in leagues? Are they all dealing with arm injuries? Or does it have something to do with the staffs insistence upon putting the ball in play. I don't think you can look back at recent history and say the philosophy doesn't factor in. However, I do agree we have a small sample size and the other factors might help explain things- I just chose to believe it's more about the organization than the rest of this.
  5. whydidnt
    This is all true. However, I also think we've seen this philosophy for long enough to understand that where there is smoke there is probably fire. Let's see how things look in another month or so, perhaps as these guys adjust to the league their results will move back to their historical norms. If they don't, there seems to be on common thread...
  6. whydidnt
    Well, I think there is one general truth. A ball put in play has a much better chance of becoming a hit than one that isn't. That's why I think K's are so important. Yes, there will times when guys succeed with a low K/9 rate, as 2010 proved - but you really are counting on the luck factor of balls falling in our not, if you build your staff around guys without "stuff" and then further encourage those guys to pitch to contact. I was trying to think of other examples, but it's hard, we really haven't had many guys here over the last several years who were known for their stuff, guys like Garza and Liriano seemed to butt heads with the staff some, so I still think there is more here than just guys without stuff. It would be nice to have a larger sample size of guys though.
  7. whydidnt
    I agree that SSS is certainly a factor. However, we've seen the Twins staff featuring low k's, low bbs for the last several years. It goes beyond sample size and is an obvious philosophy. I do agree that it seems RPs are treated a bit different, at least back of the pen guys. Time will tell how these hard throwers develop and what happens once they get here - particularly those guys those guys that end up starters. I think it was telling that the Twins made the deals for Meyer & May and Ryan said they wanted more K's, but then he went did the exact opposite when signing guys for the ML staff. I don't really think he believes that K's matter. I think he's got guys on the staff telling him that, but some of his actions seem to point a different direction, and have for several years.
  8. whydidnt
    Just out of curiosity, why do I keep seeing 200M thrown out for Grienke? He signed for $159M. Is the implication the Twins would have had to outbid the Dodgers by 40M for his services? That seems a bit of a stretch.
  9. whydidnt
    Well, I probably should have looked at BB/9 to see if it proves my opinion - sure enough - Worley - 2.3 BB/9 - Previous career low 3.1 BB/9 (thowing out 2.8 for 13 IPs as a rookie) Pelfrey - 2.4 BB/9 - Previous career low 2.9 BB/9 (thowing out last years 1.8 over 18 IPs) Correia - 1.4 BB/9 - Previous career low 2.4 BB/9 Not that walking fewer guys is a bad thing. But there is an obvious trade off of strikeouts for walks for all three of these guys - indicating the Twins and Anderson's emphasis on pitching to contact. The question is going to be if the trade off is worth it. I don't think it is since a strike out is the most valuable out and a walk is the least damaging way for someone to reach base.
  10. whydidnt
    Phil Miller's MLB insider at the Strib today: MLB Insider: Twins missing out on league's strikeout trend | StarTribune.com mentions that Twins starters are striking out about 1/2 the league average of hitters. That's an astounding number, but it got me thinking. For the last couple years some of us have been complaining about the Twins Pitch to Contact philosophy. Others have said they just don't have the pitchers, it's not the coaching or organizational philosophy, it's just how things have fallen. I think we are seeing a disturbing trend that points to it being a philosophy thing, NOT just the guys that are here. Look a the K/9 rates for the three guys the Twins brought in this year: Worley 4.8 K/9 - previous career low 7.2 Pelfrey 3.9 K/9 - previous career low 4.9 Corriea 3.9 K/9 - previous career low 4.5 Keep in mind these are their previous low for an entire season, not their career average and I think even with relatively small sample size we can see a trend, or at least the start of one. It seems that, at least this year, veterans brought in to start with Twins are definitely pitching to contact more than at any point in their career. To me this is a huge issue and one reason why the Twins continue to struggle with their rotation. The organization is too stubborn to adjust to the way the game is pitched these days. Strikeouts are up and have been going up league wide everywhere but here.
  11. whydidnt
    1. Disagree - there wasn't a huge number of elite pitchers, but there were A LOT of guys that could have helped the Twins. 2. Why not? Every team has a some limit. They certainly couldn't outbid the Dodgers for every player, but for one guy there's no reasonable reason they couldn't, especially this year. 3. You say conservative and frugal, I say cheap...what's the difference? 4. I agree, but I think those big extensions are a few years away. 5. Probably, but I think this is where some of us disagree. I don't see any reason it HAS to be this way. You can turn over the roster and still bring in some decent guys that cost a few bucks in the process -without hurting your long term process. I have a hard time putting my hands around why any fan wouldn't want the Twins to try to field the best team the can every year. It's not like the money they aren't spending this year is going to be invested in the team later, it's simply going in to the owners pockets. Why should we be happy about that?
  12. whydidnt
    There isn't a cap on the number of players signed, but there is now a cap of the amount that can be spent. Each team now has a limited pool of money available. Teams with poor records are allocated a larger limit. The strategy of saving on MLB salaries to spend on international signings no longer exists.
  13. whydidnt
    Umm, what the heck? There were more than 2 FA pitcher last off-season. That's what this thread started as. I thought the Twins should have been in on Sanchez, and several of these guys. Some of them haven't worked out so far, but it's not like the Twins didn't have the money to sign more than what they did.
  14. whydidnt
    Well I didn't paste the entire quote, but he does say Money is the #1 thing and that's it's disingenuous for guys to say they took more money for "their families" since they get so much anyway. Anyway, I'm not necessarily advocating the Twins try to sign a Grienke (Though it would be nice, say once every quarter century). However, I disagree with those who say it's not worth spending the money when the team is bad. I want the team to be better and spending money is one way to help that. I'm not advocating mortgaging the future, just using the resources they have to put a good team on the field. They did not do that this last offseason, and it really ticks me off as a paying fan to hear them spout the nonsense that Free Agents wouldn't come here. That might have happened in one case...
  15. whydidnt
    Apparently that's what the Twins thought too. I was replying to your previous quote about 2nd tier free agents though anyway. AND I still stand by the statement that money is what matter 95% of the time in FA signings. If the Twins really wanted to sign some of the other 2nd tier FA's they just had to increase the offer. There is no way you or anyone else will convince me that none of those 10+ 2nd tier free agents wouldn't have agreed to play here if we had offered the most money. If it was 1 or two guys I could potentially buy it, but the list is too long.
  16. whydidnt
    Actually this is what Grienke said “I could play for the worst team if they paid the most. . . . If the last-place team offers $200 million and the first-place team offers $10, I’m going to go for the $200 million no matter what team it was.” He was pretty specific about going where the money was, and I really don't think it's that unusual. These guy are getting advised by agents that are paid on commission, and it's really somewhat unusual for them to take a lesser deal - even hometown discounts are pretty rare these days.
  17. whydidnt
    This is true with some guys, but Grienke flat out said he signed for the most money. In some cases the money is what matters, and I think that's probably true in a majority of cases. I am very skeptical that every guy the Twins supposedly tried to sign ended up taking less money elsewhere. We have a nice stadium, a decent track record that isn't too far in the distance, a supposed players manager etc. Guys are seriously going to pick Cleveland over the Twins if it's not about the money???
  18. whydidnt
    You may have a point. However, the real point is that current Twins management has never spent money to build around a nucleus like this. What would make you think they would do so in 2017? There is virtually nothing in TR's past to indicate he will ever invest that kind of money to supplement home grown talent. NOTHING. The money that isn't spent today isn't being saved to spend later. It's going into the owner's pockets. That's their right as owners, but it doesn't mean that we as fans have to like it or worse, encourage it.
  19. whydidnt
    April Stats: 2007 R.Ortiz - 35 IP 2.57 ERA, 14 K, 6 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 3W, 1L 2013 K. Corriera - 36.1 IP 2.25 ERA, 15 K, 5 BB, 1.07 WHIP, 3 W, 1 L Scary how similar they are.
  20. whydidnt
    Yet, the Marlins fans seem to agree.
  21. whydidnt
    Well, if you lose 96 games, it seems to me cutting the payroll isn't a way to improve. By your logic, the more you lose the less you should spend? It seems counter-intuitive to me to expect to improve by spending less. You can say you don't think they are going to win anyway so why bother. However they are't asking me to watch less or pay less so It think it's reasonable that they try to field the best team possible, not the cheapest team possible. Actually, it's not about saving money, it's about maximizing your investment and the Twins really haven't been very good at that over the last several years. Continually throwing 4-5 million a year at awful pitchers. I didn't bring up the Rays and A's, I'm just pointing out that those organizations make decisions in a vastly different manner than the Twins. Finally, over the last 3 years the Twins have had access to a huge amount of resources compared to those teams but have made bad decisions on how to spend that money. I just want to know WHEN is the time for the Twins to spend the money for that one big name free agent that could help them win. Under Ryan the answer is NEVER, and we have very few playoff victories and exactly 0 World Series appearances under his leadership. I think while you can be reckless with money and waste it, the Twins, particularly under Ryan, have taken the opposite approach and have been too conservative, wasting chances to make investments that could have helped put them over the top.
  22. whydidnt
    How does spending Money on a Jackson or Sanchez this off-season have any impact on Buxton or Sano's development or arrival in the big leagues. I've never understood this argument. Just because we have some players that could help us in a couple of years, we shouldn't try to be good now?
  23. whydidnt
    Or we could ask how many World Series have The Twins, Rays and A's won over the last two decades? The goal should be to win the world series not just be competitive on occasion, shouldn't it? I'm not saying the Twins can or should spend like the Yankees, but there are times it makes sense to open the wallet and pay for the top of the line guy. They seem to get it with guys like Mauer and Morneau, but have refused to do so with Pitchers. Including the Twins in with the Rays and A's is also a little strange to me, since both of those organizations apply and use advanced statistical analysis to try and offset some of their lack of funds. The Twins have for years ignored that and this off season, despite saying they now included this analysis in their decisions, signed two poster boys for the "scouts said he was good" camp.
  24. whydidnt
    In related news, Ramon Ortiz is starting today for the Blue Jays. Before we get too excited about 1 months results we should remember Ortiz and Hernandez's starts to their Twins careers. The rough reality is that the Twins rotation has still been terrible and management, despite all their bravado over the off season, did very little to fix it. Just because it's been better than the last two years, don't confuse that with good. I think the Twins could have been more aggressive in bringing in guys with higher upside. Do I think all of these guys would have worked out? Of course not, but I still would rather have most the guys on that list than Corriera and Pelfry and it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the year, the numbers bear that out. Though I was never a fan of Blanton or Saunders....
  25. whydidnt
    Well, my first thought when I heard this is "great, he'll be out for 10 days and then placed on the DL". And that very well could happen, but really there aren't any good options to replace him on the roster right now. The bullpen doesn't need another arm, we already have a Utility IF, actually several of them. We are having a hard time finding ABs for the OF/DH/1B we have on the roster now. Seems to me that this is the one time we might as well wait and see if can get back on the field. My opinion might be different if we had an IF in the minors that looked like they could help, but I don't really see that at this point.
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