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This was just what I needed. “The heck is a game show on at night for anyway,” asked former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. “Phrase that in the form of a question.”

And I was just pointing out, his track record and career arc wouldn't make me project an "average" 2020 contribution. His age and stats would make me expect he's about done as a major league contributor. His 2019 league average performance represented a marked improvement over the previous 4 years. Homer Bailey's past 5 years: 5.56 ERA, 96 IP per year Kyle Gibson's past 5 years: 4.41 ERA, 171 IP per year The FO has to be seeing a story that his basic stats don't tell. I'm skeptical because his bbref page doesn't say "upgrade." It really looks like a pitcher who signs to a minor league contract + spring training invitation. If the best we can hope is league average production, I'd rather see those innings allotted to an ascending pitcher. Of course, that might not be the best we can hope for. i just don't see it. Thanks for engaging in a respectful and thoughtful discussion.

Good points about base stealing, but speed is also about advancing and scoring. With Buxton on second, almost any subsequent single scores a run. With Arraez standing on second it better be a well-struck, well-placed, outfield single. ...or just hit a double. ...or a home run. That's probably what they'll do anyway.

I enjoy how this article concisely made a case for each. I think Arraez seems the best fit for winning each game, but I think there is also a case to be made for giving Buxton as many at-bats as possible to try and help him catch-up on his development after missing so much time in his career so far. If Buxton can pay off more of his potential, he can render this debate moot.

Just looking at his bbref page, I can't see how this could possibly be characterized as an "upgrade." It doesn't just look like a downgrade from Kyle Gibson, but a downgrade from a replacement level pitcher. I don't see how Bailey possibly qualifies for anything above a minor league deal (like he signed entering last year.) He had a nice, solid run that ended in 2014. From 2015 on, he's posted a 5.56(!) ERA while averaging only 79 innings per year. Most of that was posted in the NL where average ERA has been hovering around 4.30 At age 34, that is a recipe for unemployment or minor league duty. I think giving the innings to internal options or AAAA rule 5 or waiver wire pitchers would be a more appealing option as it has potential for some upside. Are we to project Bailey's production solely on the 73 pretty-good innings he pitched with Oakland? Should we be convinced that those 73 innings are representative of what can be expected in 2020? Moreso than the previous 4.5 years? Are we supposed to be convinced by his track record of having a better FIP (4.71 since 2015)? Are we not supposed to remember how that reasoning worked when we brought in Nolasco? I don't get this one at all.

3 bright spots in the wake of last night: 1) Luis Arraez is one a heck of an unflappable hitter. I'm a fan. 2) I somehow managed not to choke to death on my own vomit. 3) "Rocco Baldelli is extremely happy." -That warms my heart. Just super. Next time a bully beats up my kid at school, I'll try to follow Rocco's example and remind everyone that I'm extremely happy. It is very helpful and welcome.

Sports have taught me that Yankees are not humans and do not deserve empathy or mercy. It will feel so good to my aching soul if these Twins can deliver a victory. May there be blood tonight!

From the outside, it sure seems like Falvey is adept at alienating and angering key players. Baldelli might have an impossible task trying to keep players feeling comfortable and appreciated while the FO treats even the golden child as a commodity rather than a person. It was probably the right call to shut down Buxton’s 2018, but only if you could do it in a way that made him feel respected. I think Falvey failed in this regard and Molitor lost his job for it. I’m having trouble rooting for this team right now but I’m still pulling for Buxton.

Rodney improved to 3-for-6 on save opportunities with this tight rope walk. Ugh. He’s exactly who I was afraid he is.

Can we agree on “Rotteny”? “FernandNoooooo!”?

It’s Ex-lax time. We need some runs

The Rodney move is always going to have me on edge.I’m going to need to stock up on more wine.

Good lord.

I always like looking at Baseball Reference "Similar Batters" list for context. The Vargas list for "Similar Batters Through 26" starts with Paul Sorrento at the top and includes Blaine's own Dan Johnson and Kevin Maas. There's value in those players, but David Ortiz is decidedly not on the list.

Was pleased to find this and give it a listen. Thanks John!

Seems that many keep referring to the Ortiz comparison with the conclusion that "He's proven he'll never be Ortiz." Bollocks! That misses the entire point of the comparison- Ortiz was squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.266/.348/.461) but hadn't established himself as better than the other options. Vargas appears to be getting squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.252/.311/.437) but hasn't established himself as better than the other options. The age 27 season is the point in most sluggers career arcs where they start to peak. For comparison, here are some current DH's and Twin's sluggers before-age-27 triple slashes: Logan Morrison: 251/.333/.426 Josh Willingham: .250/.357/.333 Michael Cuddyer: .260/.330/.428 Nelson Cruz: .231/.282/.385 Mark Trumbo: .259/.302/.478 Edwin Encarnacion: .260/.341/.448 Jose Bautista: .240/.329/.395 There's no certainty he'll have a productive mlb career like the players listed above, but the numbers he's posted so far are right at home with that group and he's just arriving at the age where power hitters tend to blossom. There are greats who slug early on (Killebrew, Pujols, Thome, Sano), but they are definitely a minority when you look at the full population of power hitters. I think this was the year to give Vargas 500+ PA's and the Twins are opting to give the opportunity to Logan Morrison instead. It may prove to be a fine decision or it may prove comparable to choosing Lecroy over Ortiz. The point of the comparison is that the Twins are again stuck making a choice prematurely and it feels eerily similar. It seems foolish to draw a conclusion on Vargas. All he has proven is that he's worth a shot that he hasn't gotten yet and his true emergence should have been expected in 2018 all along. Respectfully, Bitter Old David Ortiz Fan Reed

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive. All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker. He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury. It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

Yuck. Yuck. 1000x Yuck. Rodney was the least reliable closer in the division when he was in his physical prime. He is one of the best at putting guys on base. His career WHIP is 1.35 Never trusted him and can’t believe he got more than a minor league deal at this age. After pushing all their chips in on Ohtani, then having to settle for cutting their losses, giving up Melotakis+Bard+Burdi for a combined nothing, and starting the free agent period by spending $14.5-16 million on one pitcher that won’t play in 2018 and a 40 year old closer who posted a 4.89 ERA over the past two seasons... I’m quickly losing trust in this Front Office. Last year’s moves (Castro, Gimenez, Belisle, Breslow, Adrianza) didn’t overwhelm, but I liked them a whole lot more than what’s happening this offseason. Yuck.

I don't see nearly the contrast in approach that Nick sees. The Ryan regime also threw a lot of arms from a lot of sources out on the field. They had their slow-cooked draft-and-develop guys, but they too sourced rule 5, the independent leagues, junkpile, major and minor league trades. Look at the 2016 staff- Abad, Kintzler, O'Rourke, Graham, Light, Mejia... I don't see the current leadership doing anything new or different other then the fact they seem even quicker with the trigger. This means we've again seen a lot of arms attached to unfamiliar names, but might not see them long enough to recognize who belongs. With this constant carousel, players will frequently be made available to other organizations. As a fan, I have to hope they evaluate well and hold the right guys in the shuffle. We'll see about that.

I looked at the results of the 181 games he pitched prior to his callup, not just the last 11. I can't see how anyone would have enough confidence to assign him to face an mlb lineup after such a short stretch of competence when it follows a long, poor track record. That's my point. They lost the game and I'm already over it. Kind of sad when you face Mike Pelfrey, who's been dumped by the Tigers and demoted to the pen and realize his numbers are good enough he'd be the Twins fourth best starter if he was still here. Ouch.

Agreed that his leadoff power is outstanding. However, for 2 seasons, he has quite simply failed to translate that to power in situations where men are on base. I think your comment "he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base" is right on, but it's also my point. He can manage to get the cookie he likes to hit but only when no one is on. When somebody is on base, he's now improved to hitting 1 HR per 41 PA. Slugging .388 You assert that "That's baseball," but it is not the case for all power hitters. Many hit their homeruns at the same rate or even a higher rate when there are runners. My whole point is that his power shows up a LOT more when bases are empty, therefore, I no longer see a big need to move him down the order. He still sees a lot of opportunities with men on base, he just is not a power hitter in those situations.

Just baffled about the Tim Melville callup. This guy's minor league numbers are bad. He's been an unsuccessful pitcher at every level. Like these-numbers-get-you-cut-before-high-A bad. Minor league career ERA of 4.58, WHIP of 1.43. What are they seeing? The article mentions a 96 mph fastball, but since it's never translated to outs... I get that they are grasping at straws on a doubleheader day, but this decision has no base. With this track record, I probably wouldn't let him start for the Saints. Super confused.

Happy they moved the spotlight to the question of why Brian Dozier and his power are at leadoff. However, I think they missed the most important point. -yeah, Brain Dozier is overall a power hitter and it would seem wise to maximize his power-except for the fact that he's only a power hitter when the bases are empty. He's hitting 1 home run every 17 PA's (.541 SLG) with the bases empty, but only 1 hr every 47.75 PA's (.363 SLG) with a man on base. Dozier shrinks into a weak hitter when he bats with a baserunner. Something is lacking with his approach. Still a fun discussion to listen to. Even with the scrambled timeline this week