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Lonestar

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Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Lonestar
    I'm not trolling you, thrylos, but his AA numbers tell another story FWIW. vs RHB .277/.350/.459/.809 in 255 PA 24 BB/44 K vs LHB .297/.382/.517/.899 in 135 PA 17 BB/20 K
  2. Lonestar
    Thrylos, I applaud your listening and your effort. Doesn't Wilmer Flores stink at SS? I don't think Stephen Drew's or Ben Zobrist's scores make sense, at least in terms of reputation and what the market is willing to pay for them.
  3. Lonestar
    I agree that keeping Duensing (especially at his price tag) is suboptimal. Regarding Johan: There is more to being a LOOGY than being left handed. He hasn't been especially effective against LHB's since 2008 because of the demise of his slider.
  4. Lonestar
    by the way, the closest thing the Royals had to a LOOGY on their post season roster was Tim Collins.
  5. Lonestar
    I disagree. It's suboptimal to have more than 1 LOOGY on a 12-man staff in the regular season. O'Rourke is a genuine LOOGY - at least in the minors. Thielbar isn't a LOOGY. He has been lucky. With Perkins closing, why would you need more than 1 LOOGY. LHRP's are OK if they are like JC Romero or Johan Santana were in 2002. RHLP's with strong splits against LHB's like Oliveros or Burdi would be better than LOOGY's. My two cents.
  6. Lonestar
    Seth, you left out the fact that his split in 104 plate appearances against RHB's in 2014 was .326/.398/.573/.971. Most definitely a LOOGY. Have you ever seen such a split differential. Oliveros put up the following splits vs LHB .168/.264/.206/.470 in 123 PA's vs RHB .212/.299/.316/.617 in 151 PA's So replace Duensing and Thielbar with Oliveros and O'Rourke. Then there's Michael Tonkin. Here are his 2014 splits: vs LHB .290/.336/.470/.806 in 116 PA's vs RHB .246/.310/.282/.592 in 161 PA's And here are Tonkin's 2013 splits: vs LHB .173/.259/.279/.537 in 116 PA's vs RHB .271/.315/.361/.676 in 178 PA's Is there a special cause besides small sample size?
  7. Lonestar
    Buxton's 2014 was injury riddled. That doesn't mean he is injury prone. His injuries were on the field of play. It's not like his knees are going out or his ankles or his hamstrings. A broken finger or sprained wrist on a diving play don't make him injury prone. One concussion does not make him injury prone. And reinjuring a mending wrist doesn't make him injury prone necessarily. Buxton's wrist and concussion did affect his offense in 2014 including when he repeated A+ ball and AFL on what were essentially rehab assignments. Will the wrist or concussion or plateauing affect him in 2015? He does need to regain command and control of the strike zone. Thrylos, Buxton did put up stellar numbers in above the MWL in 2013. Other than that, I understand you and where you are coming from. You do like to be bleeding edge: witness your rankings of Diaz (#9) and Minier (#6).
  8. Lonestar
    I've never heard of % of Putouts that were Double Plays as a defensive metric. It doesn't measure his ability to range to his right. It doesn't even measure his ability to range to his left. And it's very dependent on his second baseman. Does anyone else use this measure. I think a more releveant measure would be % of Assists that were Double Plays. Good shortstop defense is worth more than good CF defense. I'm not sure you have established point regarding Polanco, let alone Polanco vs Buxton.
  9. Lonestar
    xFIP- is adjusted for park. xFIP is not. It's not surprising he would have a differential. It was only 0.39 in 2014. Of course we are talking Small Sample Size of only 30-34 innings pitched. I don't think it's fair to include his xFIP as a starting pitcher anymore than it is to include Perkins'.
  10. Lonestar
    Jorgy, I agree with you on Duensing and Thielbar. Stauffer's xFIP- (which is adjusted for park and league) was 88 in 2014 and 85 in 2013 where 100 is average and lower is better. I like the signing. For perspective, Perkins xFIP- was 82 in 2014 and 66 in 2013. Fien's as 102 and 68. Thielbar's was 114 and 104. Duensing's was 118 and 94. Perkins has only had a K% above 28% once, in 2013.
  11. Lonestar
    I agree with your list as of now, Seth. It will be interesting to see how it changes. I wouldn't let Pelfrey have a rotation spot in April regardless of salary. Let him have Swarzak's old job the bullpen -- if he can handle it. Maybe he works his way into high leverage relief. Maybe he washes out. Milone has an option (and he's tradeable if healthy). I can see May or Meyer beating him out of a spot in the rotation. I would go with May as of now. I like Hicks. That is, I think he will qualify for arbitration (maybe even free agency) someday. I just don't know if it is with the Twins. Having said that, I would have his ticket punched for Rochester already. And I don't think a Schafer/Robinson platoon will work. I think that Sano, Rosario, Polanco, and Kepler are not yet ready for the Show. That means the only position player on the 40-man roster in Rochester will be Chris Herrmann. And he's on the bubble. As a Rule 5 draftee, JR Graham is by definition on the bubble. Aaron Thompson is on the bubble, too, and Caleb Thielbar should be. So there's room to maneuver. Rochester should have a pretty good rotation and bullpen.
  12. Lonestar
    If all of those things happen, the Twins would have one All-Star starting pitcher, two more above average, and one close to average. They would have a solid bullpen. And solid to above average performances from Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Plouffe, Arcia, Hicks, and Pinto. Suzuki, Hunter, Schafer, Gibson and May would have to stink pretty badly for that team not to contend in the AL Central. So there would be no trades. Until the off-season.
  13. Lonestar
    Based on the Shields deal, I thought it would take Buxton or Sano. After reading Jeff Sullivan's article on fangraphs, we wouldn't need to include any of our top 6. Polanco, May, and Escobar might be an overpay. Throw in Pelfrey to even it out. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/
  14. Lonestar
    The way things stand now, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Gibson appear to be locks for the rotation. Perkins, Fien, Stauffer, and Duensing are locks for the bullpen. I would say Thielbar is a lock, too, even though I disagree that they need two LOOGYs or that Thielbar is a LOOGY. That leaves 3 slots for Pelfrey, Milone, May, Meyer, Pressley, Tonkin, and Oliveros.
  15. Lonestar
    I hope so. Or that could be the another shoe to drop.
  16. Lonestar
    Your definition works for me. And if Nolasco pitches like 2014, I agree with the dumped or exiled. If he pitches like 2013, I think he would be quite flippable. So what are your thoughts on Gibson?
  17. Lonestar
    Ryan has missed some opportunities in the last few years, but he used to be known as Trade Terry. On another thread, you said: "Gibson and Nolasco probably shouldn't put down any serious roots in the community." Sounds like you expect Nolasco to be flipped. I don't think Ryan will turn into Billy Beane and flip all three of Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes. But I can see him making room for cheaper, home-grown talent.
  18. Lonestar
    What does his age have to do with service time considerations? Would you rather have 6 years of team control or 6 years and 5 months? Especially when those 5 months are in a year when the Twins are still rebuilding. He only has pitched 130.1 innings at AAA and it took him a full year to get those. His BB/9 was 4.4. If he is going to be a starting pitcher, it's not wrong to start his season in AAA.
  19. Lonestar
    It's interesting that Hughes (now signed thru 2019) has a very limited no-trade clause. He is flippable. Santana (signed thru 2018) is flippable. Nolasco (signed thru 2017) either regains his value and is flippable or he is a sunk cost that you kick to the side, in which case the Twins will need cheap young pitching talent like Meyer, May, Berrios.
  20. Lonestar
    He was not ready two years ago. Some will say he was too inconsistent last year, especially in light of his innings limit. If he debuts in May, he will essentially be the same age Randy Johnson will be when he debuted. Other than that, his age seems irrelevant. I'm not worried about his age 33 season. As a Boras client, he will be pitching for someone else. It's not his fault the Twins haven't had (and still don't have) a back up plan for center field.
  21. Lonestar
    Right now Meyer is 4th on their depth chart behind May, Milone, and Pelfrey in whatever order. He would be second on my depth chart behind May who was a better pitcher last year. I disagree that Meyer must come up with the Twins after spring training. I would delay his arrival at least until his free agency is delayed another year. IIRC, that's only 2 or 3 weeks. We all want wins. Delaying Meyer's free agency 1 year maximizes the number of wins he will get in a Twins uniform. Remember he is a Boras client. Remember that the Twins are not expected to contend this year.
  22. Lonestar
    No, we all want the best players in order to maximize the probability of success. But you have to add context. Where is your team on the win curve? What is your payroll situation like this year, next year, for the next five years? How much of your payroll can you give one player? What does farm system look like? I will say it would be a mistake for the Twins to pay as much as it would take for the decline years of Lester and Scherzer. I don't think the Twins will contend in 2015. Who knows, they might in 2016, in which case a Lester or Samardzija type trade might make sense, especially with the farm system we have.
  23. Lonestar
    Let's see. The Athletics think it's all luck, yet they traded for two aces, giving up Cespedes and Addison Russell in the process. At the time, they had the best record and Pythagorean whatever in baseball. The Tigers believe in controlling their destiny and traded for another ace. Neither made it to the Series.
  24. Lonestar
    As a rule of thumb, Fangraphs defines a superstar position player or starting pitcher as one who generates 5 WAR. If we use that as a threshhold for an ace, 8 of the last 13 World Series champions have failed to field an ace. And that's after giving the 2003 Marlins credit for Beckett's partial season. Only one of those champions had two aces -- the 2004 Red Sox. The 2014 Tigers had 2 aces and failed to go to the Series. The White Sox had two and didn't sniff the playoffs. Ryan values aces. So far he gets them relatively cheaply. Santana, Liriano (on occasion), Hughes (if he doesn't regress too far). Meyers will be cheap if he becomes an ace, but look at the risk the Twins took on. Berrios, Stewart or Thorpe would be cheap if they were to make it. Do you expect the Twins to win a bidding war this year for Lester or Scherzer? Lester didn't even sign for the highest offer. Do you even want to win that war? Do you think the Twins should have traded for 1 year of Samardzija? It's true Ryan did not trade for Cliff Lee in 2010 [when Liriano was an ace]. Without 20:20 hindsight, what would you have given up to beat the package the Rangers gave up, headlined by Smoak and Bleaven. Your possibilities were Ramos, Gibson, Hicks, Sano, Benson, Revere, Wimmers, Salcedo, Arcia, and Gutierrez.
  25. Lonestar
    Would you call James Shields an ace? Yet the Royals made the World Series and came close to winning it all.
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