Ted Schwerzler

Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.
 
As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.
 
In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.
 
With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.
 
Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.
 
A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.
 
Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.
 
At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.
 
Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.
 
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Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.
 
As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.
 
In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.
 
With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.
 
Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.
 
A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.
 
Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.
 
At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.
 
Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.
 
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It's often said that you're only as good as your weakest link. In sports, this proves vital when a team makes a playoff run, and every outcome matters. For the 2017 Minnesota Twins, a playoff run seems a bit lofty, but the club could look to vault themselves forward by upping the production from the bottom of their roster.
 
Given that a big league baseball team is able to deploy 25 players at any given time, the roster remains in flux throughout the majority of the season. For the Minnesota Twins though, one player that could be improved upon prior to leaving Spring Training in Fort Myers is super utility man Danny Santana.
 
Describing Santana as a super utility player may be also highlighting his greatest asset to the club. The idea that he can play all over is really where the benefits stop, because in reality, his roster spot causes extreme pause. Since his inflated .405 BABIP rookie season, Santana has slashed .227/.259/.308 in 166 major league games the past two years. He's contributed just 29 extra base hits, and his 123/18 K/BB ratio is anything but ideal.
 
Then there's that idea that Santana is some sort of a utility player capable of playing all over the diamond. Defensive metrics are a fickle beast, but across the board, none of them are kind to Santana. In 2016 alone, Santana was worth -8 DRS combining six different positions. In 2015, the former shortstop was worth -15 DRS proving to be an extreme liability in the infield. Thus far defensively, Santana has shown he doesn't have the chops to play center or short, and he's miscast as a body virtually everywhere else.
 
Looking at what Santana provides at the plate, the Twins should see a lot to be desired as well. He owns nearly a 12% career swinging strike rate that has elevated the past two seasons. He chases pitches out of the zone 40% of the time, and he makes hard contact just over a quarter of the time. To summarize, Santana isn't a fit in the field, doesn't carry a big bat, and is really a theoretical asset.
 
So, what do the Twins do to address the issue?
 
What it comes down to for Minnesota and Paul Molitor, is whether or not they can get over the idea that Santana provides value where he doesn't. Is it beneficial to have a player on the bench that can simply step up to the plate and occupy a fielding position, or is there someone who can push the envelop a bit further? Minnesota may not have an immediate utility bench type outside of Eduardo Escobar, but they could push the overall roster talent upwards by having more of a sure thing.
 
It's interesting that the organization decided to DFA Byungho Park prior to considering Danny Santana. While it may have been a lot to ask for the Twins to carry Park, Kennys Vargas, and Joe Mauer all on the big league roster, exposing Byungho to waivers first doesn't seem like the best bet. There's not a ton of veteran options in Minnesota's camp, but using Fort Myers as a proving ground to find a Santana replacement really should be a must.
 
Zach Granite may only be able to play the outfield, and Engelb Vielma may not hit at all, but players like those have true assets in one category or another. If the Twins can find someone to bring any real value on either side of the ball, moving on from Danny Santana (out of options and all) may not be a bad thing.
 
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Over the course of a 162 game season, it's incredibly inevitable that injuries are going to take place. The depth of even the strongest 40 man rosters are often tested in the game of baseball. While the Minnesota Twins have experienced their fair share, they've also been behind the eight ball far too often.
 
Just this last season three key examples of reactivity as a detriment come to mind for Minnesota, and one came to a head as Byungho Park was DFA'd by the new front office. Each of Trevor Plouffe, Alex Meyer, and Park were grossly mishandled (or so it would seem) by the Twins training staff a season ago.
 
Park, who was recently jettisoned off the 40 man roster to make room for recently acquired Matt Belisle, ended his rookie season with season ending wrist surgery. That surgery didn't take place until September, after he had been optioned to Triple-A. Back in July, Park missed time due to the injury, he wasn't DL'd until landing on the shelf with Rochester in August, and there weren't corrective measures taken until the surgery in September.
 
In Park's last 30 games at the big league level for the Twins (May 17-June 28), he slashed just .123/.208/.236. After starting .257/.339/.578 through his first 32 games, it was pretty clear regression had move in for some reason or another. Given that he was a prolific slugger coming over to a new test for the first time, it would stand to reason that Park was doing what he could to give his new club more than he currently had.
 
Then, other the opposite end of the spectrum is a veteran that may have been in the same boat. Last season, Trevor Plouffe dealt with plenty of side injuries that no doubt played into what was somewhat of a disappointing year. He suffered a groin injury early in the summer, then cracked a rib in July. The cracked rib was initially diagnosed as "sore ribs" by the Twins, and the third basemen attempted to play through it. As the season drew to a close, another DL stint was pushed off as a strained oblique became the latest thing to sap Plouffe's production.
 
In 2016, Plouffe's .723 OPS was his lowest since the 2013 season, and in part, indicative of a player that never was able to take the field with a clean bill of health. It's admirable when a vet wants to go out and battle, especially an arbitration case like Plouffe, but again the Twins training staff did him no favors. He was allowed to participate to his detriment on multiple occasions, and injuries went wrongly diagnosed for a period as well.
 
Rounding out the most noticeable trio from 2016, and arguably the most egregious, is former prospect Alex Meyer. To be fair, the Twins did a less than ideal job of developing Meyer into the frontline starter he was dubbed as, but their handling of his body may have been even worse.
 
On May 3, 2016 Alex Meyer pitched for the Twins and lasted just 2.2 IP. He was then optioned to Triple-A Rochester. Despite having shoulder issues, he was simply called day-to-day for 32 days. He wasn't DL'd until June 3rd. The Twins didn't have him throwing, they didn't have more information, the simply did nothing for what was once considered a top tier starting prospect.
 
When the Twins dealt Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels on August 1st with Ricky Nolasco, he ended his time with Minnesota having not pitched since May 3. The Angels placed Meyer on the minor league 7 day DL immediately to work a roster spot, but had him back on the mound pitching on August 13. The organization invested time into getting him healthy, and had him contribute five starts in September for the big league club.
 
Ron Gardenhire was often chastised for how he handled roster movement with injured players. He'd carry a guy not available for too long, only to DL them and leave the club short for a longer period of time. In recent memory, the Twins process has been to slap a day-to-day designation on a player (Byron Buxton has also experienced this fate), despite seemingly having no real plan on how to get players healthy.
 
Given that I'm unfamiliar with the inner workings of the training department, and what Dave Pruemer and his staff have as goals, I can't point an exact finger. What is apparent though, is that the Minnesota Twins seem to be an incredibly reactive organization when it comes to injuries, and it often works to the detriment of their players. Guys like Park, Plouffe, and Meyer all were worse off for how the Twins handled their setbacks a season ago. For a team needing every advantage possible, poor injury management isn't something ideal to fall under.
 
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It wasn't the 11th hour, but times were getting desperate in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had spent the entire winter talking with the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of acquiring All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. Needing a second basemen to fix a glaring hole occupied by the aging Chase Utley a season ago, the Dodgers needed to act. In the end, they did, but it wasn't with the Twins.
 
Trading pitching prospect Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Forysthe, the Dodgers found their man. Forsythe is 30 years old, and under team control for the next two years (with an $8.5m team option for 2018). He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2016, 4.0 in 2014, and -0.5 three years ago in 2014.
 
How does that stack up against the Twins Dozier? Brian is just a bit younger still at 29, but is also under team control for each of the next two seasons. He was worth 5.9 fWAR as an All Star in 2016, and has been worth 2.5, 4.7, and 3.3 fWAR from 2013-2015 respectively. While very similar, the Twins two bagger is the slightly superior big leaguer.
 
In dealing De Leon straight up for Forsythe, the Twins position that there man was worth more than a 1-for-1 deal becomes immediately justified. Where the Twins maybe outkicked their coverage, was in who they were asking for along with the top pitching prospect. Names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger were all thrown around. Los Angeles had no compelling reason to move any of those three, and it's understandable why they'd draw a line there. Had Minnesota stepped back to Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun, they may have found a more willing dance partner.
 
At the end of the day, it comes down to opportunity cost for Los Angeles. In nabbing Forsythe, they get a lesser second basemen than the one the originally were targeting, but they also hold onto more of their assets. De Leon has some shoulder concerns, and the Dodgers have been said to be lower on him than other organizations may be. While Stewart and Calhoun aren't top tier guys, they provide strong depth that now stays on the farm. Los Angeles decided the added boost from Dozier wasn't worth the premium price tag.
 
With it being all but certain now that Dozier stays in Minnesota for the forseeable future, the Twins have left themselves with a couple different realities at play. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stepped in and had an immediate strong showing. As noted at the end of Nick Nelson's piece, the way in which the front office stood their ground was impressive, and is something Terry Ryan probably wasn't known for. It will absolutely influence how other teams go about business with the Twins new brass in the future.
 
Secondly though, the Twins have kept one of the best second basemen in all of baseball on their roster. The harm in that in and of itself is nil, the downside comes in how he is supported. At this point, the free agent market is left with virtual holdovers saved for a few names. There's not a significant impact player or two that is going to turn the Twins reality around. Dozier deserves to have talent brought in to supplement his play, but spending to do so is something the former regime wound up doing far too often.
 
Instead, the Twins should sit and wait. Last season was a mirage of sorts in that the club wasn't the blueprint of a 103 loss team. Pitching was awful, and the offense was nonexistent at times, but the youth expected to carry the group mostly was trying to find its way. You can make the argument that even an upward trend towards mediocrity should give the Twins a realistic shot at something like 80 wins in 2017, and that'd be a heck of a turnaround in and of itself.
 
That being said, Dozier can dictate how Falvey and Levine support him. Should he back up his incredible 2016, or really just stay somewhere in the middle of his past two seasons, he could become a trade candidate to a contender in July. More likely though, he gives Minnesota some strong play, and factors into their 2018 plans as well. With money owed to Glen Perkins and Joe Mauer quickly nearing a close, Minnesota will have plenty of funds at its disposal to bring in impact players both on the mound and in the field for the 2018 season.
 
Right now, the Cleveland Indians remain well positioned in the AL Central. Outside of that though, the Royals are treading water, the Tigers are aging, and the White Sox are reliant on a full scale rebuild. If the Twins want to spend and supplement a year from now, it's hard to scoff at the idea they'd have a shot at being at least a divisional contender.
 
Stocking the farm is something that Levine and Falvey need to make a priority. The reason it's bare though, is because of the talent having graduated to the big league level. It'll be on the backs of the former top prospects that a turnaround needs to happen for the Twins. Asking Brian Dozier to be a part of that is far from a bad idea, and spending on the group as a whole a year from now would make everyone happy.
 
As Spring Training approached, the Dodgers balked on the game of chicken first. They looked at an opportunity cost being too steep and went a different direction. The haul Minnesota likely deserved was never there, and the organization was right by holding serve. Now it'll be on them to follow up the second half of the process and make Dozier feel supported throughout the lineup.
 
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There's no nice way to put it, the pitching for the Minnesota Twins was absolutely abysmal in 2016. While the club set a franchise record losing 103 games, they very easily could've avoided that fate by getting just a bit more out of the production turned in from the rubber. This season, Paul Molitor doesn't have a significantly revamped staff, but there's a few key cogs that could turn heads.
 
While I'm not naive enough to believe that the Twins are all of a sudden going to be one of the best pitching teams in the American League, there is a path for a turnaround. Trevor May can stay healthy in the rotation, Phil Hughes could bounce back, and Jose Berrios has yet to truly emerge. Stepping aside from the big names though, I'd like to focus on a returning commodity, and one that is new to the organization.
 
First, Tyler Duffey presents the Twins with an interesting opportunity. At 26 years old, Duffey has turned in 36 starts across two big league seasons thus far. His rookie year saw a pitcher that limited damage by keeping the ball in the yard and striking out opposing batters. As the book got out on him, and his impressive curveball, he served up 25 dingers in 2016 while being demoted back to Triple-A. I'm not sure I want to dub Duffey as a "failed starter," but I'm pretty confident he can be of more use in the pen.
 
A former closer at Rice University, Duffey has the chops, and the pure stuff, to get hitters out in a more limited role. Over the course of his career, he's allowed a .963 OPS to batters from the 4th inning on. When facing batters in the first three innings, he's limited them to just a .743 OPS. As with most pitchers, his OPS rises the more often he faces an opposing hitter in a game. Unfortunately for Duffey, it drastically jumps from .639 the first time around to .976 in their second appearance.
 
On top of being a pitcher that hitters adjust to, Duffey's best stuff really includes only two pitches. He's got a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a curveball that is easily his best pitch. In his big league time, he's thrown a changeup just 5.5% of the time. Duffey also isn't a guy that generates a ton of swing and misses in his current role. His big league number comes in at just 8.9% while allowing opposing hitters to make contact over 81% of the time. In a relief role, I think the tides turn in his favor some.
 
Asking Duffey to start out in middle relief, with the potential to use him in a bit more high leverage, could be a really good thing. Out of the pen, his fastball should trend more towards the mid-90s with his curveball being a big yakker as an out pitch. Minnesota has a deficiency in the bullpen as well, and casting Tyler in the right role could be a great move for both parties. I'm sure he'll get a chance to start this spring, but with so many options, moving him to a full time relief role makes a lot of sense.
 
The other guy is someone that I see having the potential to help Minnesota either in starting or in relief. Justin Haley was selected with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft for a reason, Minnesota thinks he can help them right now. While the Twins have had success in the Rule 5 Draft in the form of players such as Johan Santana and Ryan Pressly, I'm not ready to call Haley a guarantee. What I do think is that he has a strong enough floor that no matter how he's used, he can be effective.
 
At 25 years old and yet to debut, Haley is no spring chicken or top prospect. However, the former Red Sox 6th round pick has seen success at each level of the farm system, and should have a pretty smooth projectability. Striking out right around eight batters per nine and walking right about three per nine over the past two seasons at Double and Triple-A, he could be a serviceable arm at the back end of the rotation. If Molitor wants to hide him a bit more, he looks like the makings of a swing man in the pen, that can eat innings and get big league hitters out,
 
Haley has never been significantly bittern by the longball, and has posted some pretty respectable FIP numbers. I wouldn't expect him to come in and contend for the Rookie of the Year, but if he ends up being a consistent back-end starter or reliable reliever, I'd be far from shocked.
 
It's going to take scenarios like this playing out for the Twins to turn the tide on their pitching woes. The reality is that the system may not have a true ace in it, and the big league level doesn't have much to hang its hat on either. I really like the pieces and depth that Minnesota has at its disposal, but an immediate turnaround will require guys rising to the occasion. If given the opportunity, I'd be on both Duffey and Haley answering that call.
 
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This offseason, the Minnesota Twins haven't done much to add to a club that lost a franchise worst 103 games a season ago. While a rebuild seems logical, and a new front office has been installed, it's hard to fault the organization for taking a wait and see approach. Offensively this club isn't in a bad place, and while pitching is an issue, it shouldn't be historically bad again. However, looking at the potential 25 man roster, there's two former prospects that could be on the outside looking in.
 
First as primarily an outfielder, and maybe more egregiously a super utility player, Danny Santana comes to mind. At 26 years old, he's hardly a kid anymore, and the BABIP inflated rookie debut seems like a distant memory. After slashing .319/.353/.472 in 2014, he's combined to slash a paltry .227/.259/.308 over 166 games the past two seasons. What started out as a nice outfield emergence has turned into a player with a ton of question marks.
 
Arguably the largest feather in Santana's cap is that he's out of options. Minnesota can no longer hope he works on things in Rochester, and any trip to Triple-A would require him to pass through waivers unclaimed (unlikely). At the big league level though, it's hard to find value outside of a guy that can simply occupy space. Defensively, Santana has been nothing short of underwhelming. He was worth -15 DRS at SS in 2015 prior to losing the job, and he cost the Twins -9 DRS in the outfield over 63 games a season ago. With an already suspect pitching staff, poor defense isn't an ideal pairing.
 
At the plate, Santana's swinging strike rate has increased yearly, and it's been in tandem with a declining contact number. He's a guy that relies on his speed to stretch bases, although he's not much of a base stealer either. Walking less than 4% of the time over the course of his career, his plate approach leaves plenty to be desired and doesn't give him an ideal lineup spot.
 
In short, Santana is a guy that the Twins could absolutely carry as a 25th man out of fear that he's plucked on waivers. Most organizations have someone similar to Santana, but as a reclamation project in a more defined role on a decent club, he could have value. In keeping Santana however, the Twins would be failing to capitalize on an opportunity to stretch the upside at the back end of their 25 man roster. A player like Santana isn't the difference in contending, but he represents an area where a known commodity can be replaced with higher-ceiling talent.
 
That brings us to another Twin that had a bit more prospect steam going for him, Kennys Vargas. A year ago, Vargas posted an .833 OPS, but it was almost solely carried by 18 games in the middle of the summer. Joining Minnesota on July 4, Vargas slashed .333/.446/.683 through July 31. In that span he mashed four homers while drawing 13 walks to go with his 18 strikeouts. If Paul Molitor could get anything close to that consistently he'd have to be elated. Vargas then played just 29 more games for Minnesota slashing .163/.252/.380 with six homers and a 39/11 strikeout to walk ratio.
 
A power guy that has failed to command the zone, Minnesota has demoted Vargas previously for his lack of home run production. He was granted another option year this season, and that stands to weigh heavily in the Twins decision making during roster crunch time.
 
Things were a bit more encouraging for Vargas a season ago. he hits the ball hard, and his 40% hard hit rate was the best of his career. He also decreased his swinging strike number to just under 12% and posted a rising contact rate. The unfortunate reality though is that Vargas owns a career contact number of just 71.8%. For a guy his size, and making contact less frequently, you'd absolutely expect to see more balls leave the yard.
 
Defensively, Vargas is far from a black hole. In 32 games he posted just -1 DRS and was serviceable more often than not. He's far from the Gold Glove caliber defense that Joe Mauer has developed at first base, but as a secondary option, he's better than passable. Given that the Twins have a glut of designated hitter types, Vargas will always have to bring his mitt to the yard if he wants to carve out regular playing time.
 
Quite possibly the biggest deterrent for Vargas' chances to make the Opening Day roster rest on the shoulders of Byungho Park. After being acquired by the previous regime, there's reason to wonder how both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former Korean Baseball Organization slugger. Coming back healthy after a wrist injury, I expect a nice turnaround year for Park, and his second season in the big leagues should overshadow his first. With Vargas able to start at Triple-A, it would make sense to reason that first base alongside Mauer, is Park's job to lose.
 
I'm not sold on either Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas being everyday big leaguers for the Minnesota Twins or otherwise. Of the two though, it's Santana that strikes me as less of a loss should he be jettisoned from the organization. There's always going to be appeal for power guys in today's game, and while Vargas profiles as such, I'm not sure there's been enough convincing done to suggest he can deliver just yet.
 
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We've now turned the calendar to 2017, and the offseason is quickly coming to a close. The Minnesota Twins will report to sunny Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, and shortly thereafter Opening Day will be upon us. Dominating headlines this winter has been what the Twins will do with Brian Dozier, and it is in that decision that we can raise questions about what the plan for the future is.
 
Conventional wisdom says that the Twins should trade Brian Dozier for the best possible return. He's the club's best player, coming off of a career year, and there's just two years left on his team friendly contract. While Paul Molitor's club should be a far cry from the 103 losses they suffered in 2016, expecting a deep playoff run isn't realistic either. With Minnesota arguably more than just two years away, Dozier's greatest value is in what he brings back that can supplement the next Postseason team.
 
Unfortunately, the market for Dozier hasn't materialized as Minnesota has needed it to. The Los Angeles Dodgers have seemed like the best fit from the get go, but they have also become virtually the only landing spot. While top prospect Jose De Leon is a nice get for the Twins, he alone doesn't represent fair value for the All Star second basemen. With no other bidders however, the Twins are watching as fair value is turned into what someone will pay.
 
Whether or not a trade is consummated by the two sides, I find it hard to suggest that Minnesota should take less than Dozier is worth (De Leon by himself), but the flip side is also worth questioning. If De Leon on his own is short-ending the Twins now, is holding Dozier for a potential non-existent return in the future even worse?
 
You could make the case that Brian Dozier may hold value to a contender somewhere around the 2017 trade deadline, and if you want to go further, that he may present value for Minnesota as a guy that could be tagged with a qualifying offer two years from now. Both of those hopes require that he continue to produce at a very high level however. For a guy that has reinvented himself into a power pull hitter, Dozier will need to stay ahead of opposing pitchers as he looks to keep playing at a high level.
 
So what happens when you don't trade Dozier? Well, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some explaining to do when it comes to future plans. Even though Minnesota isn't likely to lose 100+ games again in 2017, returning Dozier doesn't make them relevant. Worse is that in returning Dozier, and with the free agent market where it is, the roster will be constructed in virtually an identical way it was a season ago. That development would signify a hesitancy to rebuild, while not committing to an ability to compete.
 
The reason Brian Dozier has been tabbed as such a fit for the Dodgers is because they are a couple pieces short of a World Series, and second base appears the most vacant hole. A team like the Dodgers is in a position to give up top prospects to win now. They have up and coming talent, while also being in a position where one or two pieces put them in a contender position. Unfortunately for the Twins, the farm system is non-existent with virtually all prospects of value being at the big league level, and the major league club isn't yet ready to turn the corner.
 
On his own, Dozier is a luxury for Minnesota at this point. He represents a player that is out of position given the organizational structure. With the new brain trust deciding not to bring in any real firepower, top notch pitching or positional talent, Dozier stands to be a wasted commodity should he remain in the organization.
 
There's still reason to believe Dozier is moved; obviously the offseason isn't over. That said, if Minnesota decides to hold on him while not bringing in other top tier talent, the reality of some weird purgatory will set in. This team isn't going anywhere this year, and asking Brian Dozier to stick around to witness it while deciding against future plans seems like an odd decision.
 
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We've now turned the calendar to 2017, and the offseason is quickly coming to a close. The Minnesota Twins will report to sunny Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, and shortly thereafter Opening Day will be upon us. Dominating headlines this winter has been what the Twins will do with Brian Dozier, and it is in that decision that we can raise questions about what the plan for the future is.
 
Conventional wisdom says that the Twins should trade Brian Dozier for the best possible return. He's the club's best player, coming off of a career year, and there's just two years left on his team friendly contract. While Paul Molitor's club should be a far cry from the 103 losses they suffered in 2016, expecting a deep playoff run isn't realistic either. With Minnesota arguably more than just two years away, Dozier's greatest value is in what he brings back that can supplement the next Postseason team.
 
Unfortunately, the market for Dozier hasn't materialized as Minnesota has needed it to. The Los Angeles Dodgers have seemed like the best fit from the get go, but they have also become virtually the only landing spot. While top prospect Jose De Leon is a nice get for the Twins, he alone doesn't represent fair value for the All Star second basemen. With no other bidders however, the Twins are watching as fair value is turned into what someone will pay.
 
Whether or not a trade is consummated by the two sides, I find it hard to suggest that Minnesota should take less than Dozier is worth (De Leon by himself), but the flip side is also worth questioning. If De Leon on his own is short-ending the Twins now, is holding Dozier for a potential non-existent return in the future even worse?
 
You could make the case that Brian Dozier may hold value to a contender somewhere around the 2017 trade deadline, and if you want to go further, that he may present value for Minnesota as a guy that could be tagged with a qualifying offer two years from now. Both of those hopes require that he continue to produce at a very high level however. For a guy that has reinvented himself into a power pull hitter, Dozier will need to stay ahead of opposing pitchers as he looks to keep playing at a high level.
 
So what happens when you don't trade Dozier? Well, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some explaining to do when it comes to future plans. Even though Minnesota isn't likely to lose 100+ games again in 2017, returning Dozier doesn't make them relevant. Worse is that in returning Dozier, and with the free agent market where it is, the roster will be constructed in virtually an identical way it was a season ago. That development would signify a hesitancy to rebuild, while not committing to an ability to compete.
 
The reason Brian Dozier has been tabbed as such a fit for the Dodgers is because they are a couple pieces short of a World Series, and second base appears the most vacant hole. A team like the Dodgers is in a position to give up top prospects to win now. They have up and coming talent, while also being in a position where one or two pieces put them in a contender position. Unfortunately for the Twins, the farm system is non-existent with virtually all prospects of value being at the big league level, and the major league club isn't yet ready to turn the corner.
 
On his own, Dozier is a luxury for Minnesota at this point. He represents a player that is out of position given the organizational structure. With the new brain trust deciding not to bring in any real firepower, top notch pitching or positional talent, Dozier stands to be a wasted commodity should he remain in the organization.
 
There's still reason to believe Dozier is moved; obviously the offseason isn't over. That said, if Minnesota decides to hold on him while not bringing in other top tier talent, the reality of some weird purgatory will set in. This team isn't going anywhere this year, and asking Brian Dozier to stick around to witness it while deciding against future plans seems like an odd decision.
 
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Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.
 
Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.
 
While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.
 
As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.
 
Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.
 
Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.
 
In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.
 
Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.
 
There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.
 
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Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.
 
Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.
 
While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.
 
As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.
 
Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.
 
Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.
 
In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.
 
Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.
 
There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.
 
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The Minnesota Twins have not had a ton of needs to address this offseason. While the 2016 season produced the worst record in major league history, it was indicative of the worst pitching staff in the big leagues. With more reason to rely on internal options, addressing deficiencies through a poor free agent market never seemed like a good bet. If there was something to be addressed though, it was Brian Dozier.
 
Coming off the best season of his career, the first as an All Star, and having totaled over 40 homers for the first (and potentially only) time, Minnesota finds themselves at a crossroads. Sure, there's little room to argue that the Twins lineup isn't better with Dozier in it, but in getting back to being a playoff contender, does Dozier realistically fit in the picture?
 
It's been clear for quite some time that Minnesota was going to be forced into a decision. Jorge Polanco is an up and coming prospect that can realistically only help the Twins at second base. Dozier wasn't extended into his free agent years, will undoubtedly never be better, and is playing for a Twins squad that isn't exactly close to contending. So, does Minnesota need to trade him at all costs?
 
The short answer is yes, but the longer answer is yes with some caveats.
 
Thus far, the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the likely landing spot. That has been expected since the talks of a trade were initially thought probable. Los Angeles needs just another piece or two for a World Series run, and second base remains a large hole for them. With the club now open to trading their top pitching prospect Jose De Leon, Minnesota is simply jostling with who joins him on the flight to the Twin Cities.
 
As expected, the Dozier are reluctant to trade first base prospect Cody Bellinger. He's near big league ready, looks like the real deal, and should seamlessly take over for Adrian Gonzalez. Expecting the Dodgers to deal Yadier Alvarez, whom they invested over $30 million in signing him out of Cuba, never seemed like a good bet. Asking for 2016 draft pick Walker Bueller didn't seem to be a realistic bet either. Nonetheless, Minnesota has inquired on all three and reportedly been turned down.
 
That brings up to the "trade Dozier at all costs" crossroads. Right now, the Twins have followed the best possible path in dealing their star. They made sure to guarantee that the centerpiece of any deal is included, and they've aimed as high as possible for any secondary players. Now it's time to pull the trigger and take what else you can get.
 
De Leon quite possibly helps the Twins more long term than does Dozier. Getting another prospect such as Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun in addition is something Minnesota should feel content with. While they may not see the immediate impact that another year of Dozier may provide, understanding that any step backwards would squash the ability to move him at any time. Right now it's about asking for the stars (they have) and settling for everything you can get (they need to).
 
With how much smoke there has been this offseason in regards to Dozier moving from Minnesota to Los Angeles, you'd be hard pressed to suggest anything less than a 90 percent chance a deal is consummated. It's taking a bit longer than I imagined, but the process the Twins have followed thus far has been the right one. At this point, it's time to back off the highest ask, take what you can get, and close the chapter on a deal that should benefit both sides.
 
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The hot stove season is just around the corner, and the GM Meetings have kicked off down in Arizona. As the offseason rolls on, we'll quickly get closer and closer to free agent signings taking place at a rapid pace. I don't believe there's too many names the Twins should be in on (see here), but Jason Castro is one I really like.
 
Now I can understand why a catcher with a less than exciting hit tool might have Minnesota Twins fans down, but there's plenty more to the puzzle here. It's true that Castro owns just a .660 OPS since 2014, and that he's averaged just 12 homers per year in that span. Since 2014 however, Kurt Suzuki has just a .680 OPS and has hit a total of 16 homers. Comparing the offensive production is really splitting hairs though, the play here is on the defensive side of the field.
 
When looking at both Suzuki and Castro, you couldn't possibly find two more polar opposites. Suzuki has averaged throwing out just 19.6% of would be base stealers. Over the past three years, the league average in that statistic is 29.3%. On the flip side, Castro has caught 27.3% of would be base stealers in that same span. It's not just the arm that separates Castro though. Actually, it's the glove the really puts weight behind what the Twins are looking to do here.
 
Per StatCorner, Jason Castro was the 5th best catcher in all of baseball in 2016 when it came to generating extra strikes for his pitchers. Conversely, only 19 catchers were worse than Suzuki, and the second worst catcher in all of baseball when it came to pitch framing, was his backup Juan Centeno.
 
When behind the plate for the Astros, Jason Castro grabbed strikes outside of the zone 8.3% of the time, while allowing pitches in the zone to be called balls just 11.8% of the time (6th best among qualified catchers). Suzuki generated strikes out of the zone just 7.1% of the time while allowing should be strikes to be called balls 14.6% of the time. Understandably so, Centeno was even worse at 4.1% and 17.0% respectively.
 
It was apparent at multiple points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season that Juan Centeno had no business being behind the plate in a major league game. While Kurt Suzuki was once a respectable veteran, his presence alone is now his value to the roster as his on field performance has deteriorated to below replacement levels.
 
So, Jason Castro is a defensive stalwart, why do the Twins want to bring him in? The long and short of it is that Minnesota needs to fix its pitching problem, and focusing on the mound is expensive.
 
Right now, the Twins have a handful of arms that can at least be counted on to start games in 2017. There's at least eight realistic starting options at Paul Molitor's disposal, and they all provide a different level of projected output. Getting more out of them, prior to moving on or looking elsewhere, can realistically be accomplished by stacking the deck in their favor. A catcher that will steal them strikes, as well as ensure they are properly called, all while controlling the running game, is something the Twins haven't had since Joe Mauer was behind the dish.
 
The marriage between the Twins and Castro seems to make a lot of sense at least from the Minnesota lens. With just John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver as big league options, a true starter is again a need. I'd prefer to see Garver get a shot to prove himself in a backup capacity over Murphy after how each of their 2016 seasons went, but neither are capable of being the guy out of the gate. Castro is just 29 years old, and would be able to shore up the position nicely on a three year deal.
 
At this point, talks seem preliminary, and Castro will likely have multiple suitors. It works in Minnesota's favor that the Orioles didn't extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, and that Wilson Ramos should be game ready by May. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can look past those two names and try to tempt the former Houston backstop with a multi year offer somewhere between $20-25 million. If it works out, the Twins would be addressing their catcher issue, but it would be through the eyes of a pitching focus.
 
Rather than spending on pitching that isn't there, this is absolutely the way you'd hope the Twins franchise address one of their largest issues.
 
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The hot stove season is just around the corner, and the GM Meetings have kicked off down in Arizona. As the offseason rolls on, we'll quickly get closer and closer to free agent signings taking place at a rapid pace. I don't believe there's too many names the Twins should be in on (see here), but Jason Castro is one I really like.
 
Now I can understand why a catcher with a less than exciting hit tool might have Minnesota Twins fans down, but there's plenty more to the puzzle here. It's true that Castro owns just a .660 OPS since 2014, and that he's averaged just 12 homers per year in that span. Since 2014 however, Kurt Suzuki has just a .680 OPS and has hit a total of 16 homers. Comparing the offensive production is really splitting hairs though, the play here is on the defensive side of the field.
 
When looking at both Suzuki and Castro, you couldn't possibly find two more polar opposites. Suzuki has averaged throwing out just 19.6% of would be base stealers. Over the past three years, the league average in that statistic is 29.3%. On the flip side, Castro has caught 27.3% of would be base stealers in that same span. It's not just the arm that separates Castro though. Actually, it's the glove the really puts weight behind what the Twins are looking to do here.
 
Per StatCorner, Jason Castro was the 5th best catcher in all of baseball in 2016 when it came to generating extra strikes for his pitchers. Conversely, only 19 catchers were worse than Suzuki, and the second worst catcher in all of baseball when it came to pitch framing, was his backup Juan Centeno.
 
When behind the plate for the Astros, Jason Castro grabbed strikes outside of the zone 8.3% of the time, while allowing pitches in the zone to be called balls just 11.8% of the time (6th best among qualified catchers). Suzuki generated strikes out of the zone just 7.1% of the time while allowing should be strikes to be called balls 14.6% of the time. Understandably so, Centeno was even worse at 4.1% and 17.0% respectively.
 
It was apparent at multiple points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season that Juan Centeno had no business being behind the plate in a major league game. While Kurt Suzuki was once a respectable veteran, his presence alone is now his value to the roster as his on field performance has deteriorated to below replacement levels.
 
So, Jason Castro is a defensive stalwart, why do the Twins want to bring him in? The long and short of it is that Minnesota needs to fix its pitching problem, and focusing on the mound is expensive.
 
Right now, the Twins have a handful of arms that can at least be counted on to start games in 2017. There's at least eight realistic starting options at Paul Molitor's disposal, and they all provide a different level of projected output. Getting more out of them, prior to moving on or looking elsewhere, can realistically be accomplished by stacking the deck in their favor. A catcher that will steal them strikes, as well as ensure they are properly called, all while controlling the running game, is something the Twins haven't had since Joe Mauer was behind the dish.
 
The marriage between the Twins and Castro seems to make a lot of sense at least from the Minnesota lens. With just John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver as big league options, a true starter is again a need. I'd prefer to see Garver get a shot to prove himself in a backup capacity over Murphy after how each of their 2016 seasons went, but neither are capable of being the guy out of the gate. Castro is just 29 years old, and would be able to shore up the position nicely on a three year deal.
 
At this point, talks seem preliminary, and Castro will likely have multiple suitors. It works in Minnesota's favor that the Orioles didn't extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, and that Wilson Ramos should be game ready by May. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can look past those two names and try to tempt the former Houston backstop with a multi year offer somewhere between $20-25 million. If it works out, the Twins would be addressing their catcher issue, but it would be through the eyes of a pitching focus.
 
Rather than spending on pitching that isn't there, this is absolutely the way you'd hope the Twins franchise address one of their largest issues.
 
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In general, I've tried to keep a consistent level of content in each blog post. However, when considering the moves that the Minnesota Twins may make on the free agent market, it's hard not to want this post to be considerably shorter. Minnesota isn't very good, and the free agent market is even worse. Paying for mediocre talent isn't going to get the Twins out of the cellar, and that's likely what they'd have to be doing in free agency.
 
On the flip side, the Twins do have some needs, and if they aren't going to be addressed in trades, they'll need to find answers elsewhere. Given what the Twins have internally, and what the market is currently providing, here are a few names I'd be happy about Derek Falvey and Thad Levine getting in on.
 
Jason Castro C
 
Castro was once trending towards being a big name behind the plate for the Astros. At 26, he made his first All Star Game and posted an .835 OPS. Since, he's totaled just a .660 OPS across 343 games dating back to 2014. Still just 29 years old, he has plenty of catching days ahead, and it's the Twins that find themselves among the neediest teams in the majors.
 
He's above average defensively, grades out favorably with pitch framing, and has been around league average when it comes to catching would be base stealers. From Kurt Suzuki in 2016, an average defensive catcher would seem like a whole new world in Minnesota. the Twins could go with more of a stop gap option in Dioner Navarro, Geovany Soto, or even Chris Iannetta. Right now though, the Twins two best internal options are John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver. Both will take their lumps, and I'm not quite sure either is ready for an every day type role.
 
Neftali Feliz RP
 
In general, I'm more in favor of the Twins not signing a reliever to anything but a minor league deal this offseason. That being said, Feliz presents somewhat of an intriguing case. Having just made $3.9m on a one year deal with the Pirates in 2016, the 28 year-old Dominican had his best year since 2014. He posted a 10.2 K/9 for the first time since his 20 game debut in 2009, and his 62 games pitched were the second most in a single-season during his career.
 
You can wonder whether or not the turnaround was due to getting to work with pitching guru Ray Searage, and there's reason to caution his health. If Minnesota could get in at the right price though, he's a name I'd listen on. The 4.53 FIP isn't ideal, and that's where I'd start my negative sell. His fastball sat at 96.0 again in 2016 though, and that's the highest velocity since 2011. A pen void of hard throwers could do worse.
 
Jordan Walden RP
 
A 12th round pick by the Angels back in 2006, Walden spent his age 27 season with the Cardinals last year. Pitching in just 12 games after dealing with a shoulder injury, St. Louis declined his $5.25m option. With arm injuries being more common place for pitchers, it's hard not to look at the prospects of what a healthy Walden may present.
 
He's struck out at least 10.0/9 in each of his six big league seasons, and owns a career 10.8 K/9 acorss 222.0 IP. Walden has posted a sub 3.00 FIP in all but one big league season and has generally danced around walks by not allowing home runs. His velocity dipped down to 94 last season, but he could trend back up towards 95-96 with a clean bill of health. Negotiating against his injury, even a guaranteed big league deal, isn't something I'd shy away from at the right price.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota needs to make more internal decisions than they do external ones. Deciding who to keep, and what assets to deal in order to advance the system as a whole is a practice that the Twins will need to get underway sooner rather than later.
 
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Monday November 7, 2016 will mark a substantial date in the history of the Minnesota Twins. For the first time since 1995 when Terry Ryan assumed the General Manager role, the organization will have quite the shake up at the top. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are being formerly introduced and they'll have quite the challenge in front of them. It will be incredibly important for them to get creative.
 
Looking back at a World Series played between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians, it became quite apparent that the internal processes for both teams were focused within. Neither team had made it to the pinnacle of the 2016 Major League Baseball season by targeting a multitude of free agents. Sure, the Cubs had Jon Lester and Ben Zobrist while the Indians took interest in Mike Napoli. At the heart of it all though, you could find good draft strategies and strong trades.
 
As both Falvey and Levine look to right the ship for the Twins, it's now more than ever that they'll need to revamp the system by using the same principles as baseball's best. Forget what you think about payroll or how money should be spent, there's just not really any good reasons to be spending it this winter. The free agent market is mediocre at best, and the Twins overextending themselves on lackluster pieces is something we've seen far too often.
 
Players like Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Francisco Lindor, and Addison Russell come about because of front office executives willing to take chances. Both Falvey and Levine will need to get together and decide which pieces they have to hold onto, and where they can part with value in hopes of returning even more. Unchanged from 2016, the Twins could be a better team next season. Slightly better pitching and more consistent hitting would have them trending towards .500 quite realistically. The problem is that shouldn't be the goal.
 
It's hard to suggest a full on rebuild, but right now, the Twins have way too many parts that simply land somewhere in the middle. Ervin Santana probably isn't going to be around when this team is a winner, Kyle Gibson may not push the needle, and guys like Trevor Plouffe, Phil Hughes, and even Glen Perkins may find themselves tied much more to what once was. Some of them will have value, and others will have their value tied to the roster spot that could be better utilized elsewhere. The two new front office members will have to immediately begin to make those decisions.
 
For now, it's hard to suggest a flurry of moves for the Twins this winter. They have some pretty glaring weaknesses, and finding answers on the free agent market isn't the right way to go. Falvey and Levine are going to need to get to scouting internally in short order, while hoping they can find some partners to get creative with. If Minnesota has its way, making a handful of trades prior to the 2017 Major League Baseball season would be a pretty great plan of action.
 
At some point, internal development will need to be raised, and the prospects counted on throughout the system will need to spark the change. While that's pretty obvious, doubling down to bring in more wild cards and chances for success is something that the Twins can definitely afford to do.
 
For far too long, the organization has been ok with being good enough, settling for mediocrity, and really treading water in the shallow end. It's long been time to get creative, take some chances, and in turn, hope to see some results that push the needle a bit. Getting that started sooner rather than later is something we should all be excited about.
 
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With the 2016 regular season in the books, the Arizona Fall League underway, and the Major League Baseball season barreling towards the World Series, it's time to take a look at what's to come for the Minnesota Twins. The last prospect update here at Off The Baggy was the 2016 Midseason Top 15 (you can find that here).
 
As 2017 gets underway for the Twins, Derek Falvey will be tasked with getting the organization back on track. A large group of youth has already graduated from prospect status, but it's the young talent that the Twins will have to build their turnaround on. Despite no longer being a top five farm system, there's plenty of talent on the way. With that out of the way, let's get into it.
 
15. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
The Aussie starter remains one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system. He has the stuff to be a capable middle of the rotation arm, but injuries have derailed his development. Still just 20 years old, Thorpe hasn't seen live actions since 2014 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. He was supposed to be back on the mound post Tommy John this year, but never could get healthy. 2016 remains a pivotal campaign for him. When right, he's a top 10 prospect for Minnesota.
 
14. Jake Reed RP
 
I really thought Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal.
 
13. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
 
A third round pick in 2015, Blankenhorn is already at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Just 20 years old and taken out of high school, he really started coming into his own last season. After tearing it up for Elizabethton, Blankenhorn had a solid .774 OPS in 25 games for the Kernels. He's got pop in his bat, and should continue to swing his way up the Twins system.
 
12. Nick Burdi RP
 
Like Thorpe, Burdi lost some really significant development time in 2016. He was injured down in Fort Myers during spring training in a fluke accident, and then couldn't get himself healthy enough to pitch with other injuries throughout the year. When he's right, his stuff reaches triple-digits, and penciling him in as a future closer makes a ton of sense. If Burdi can prove he's healthy, and hone in his command a bit, he should join the Twins quickly in 2017.
 
11. Wander Javier SS
 
Speculation and projection remains the key to Javier and his ranking. The Twins spent a boatload on the international free agent out of the Dominican. He's just 17 and played only nine games in the Dominican Summer League during 2016 due to injury. His ceiling is as high as anyone on this list, and if everything breaks right, he could be a star. Javier should be stateside for 2017 and seeing how he does in the lower rookie levels is something to monitor in the year ahead.
 
10. Daniel Palka OF
 
Voted by many publications as the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Palka came to the organization in the Chris Herrmann trade. He hits for ridiculous power and was one of the top home run producers in both the Southern and International Leagues this season. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but from a bat perspective, you might not find a better power tool in other organizations.
 
9. Adam Brett Walker OF
The only reason that Palka's power tool isn't the most impressive among Twins prospects is because Walker exists. Once again this season, Walker made a mockery of pitches that he sent over the fence. His game and raw power are easily 80 grade, and while that remains his greatest asset, he's continued to hold his own while moving up to Triple-A. The swing and miss tendency is real, and his arm isn't good enough to be an every day corner outfielder, but he should be considered as an extra off the bench for the Twins sooner rather than later.
 
8. Kohl Stewart SP
 
If there's a prospect I'm more down on than anyone else for the Twins, it's Stewart. After being selected 4th overall in 2013, he's consistently taken steps backwards. A consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2015, he's fallen off of nearly every top 100 list. Stewart is still young at just 22 and already pitching at Double-A. Unfortunately, he has shown very little ability to strike anyone out, his command has progressively gotten worse, and he's now strung together multiple seasons of injury concerns. The upside remains apparent, but Stewart's stock has plummeted. He's got time to turn the tables, and that taking place would be huge.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
Creating prospect lists requires players to be evaluated on their own accord. Jorge's ceiling isn't as high as some of the other names on this list, but his floor should also be much more projectable. He looks the part of a mid-to-back-end starter, and he's up to Double-A at 22 years old. Jorge's stuff is never going to overpower hitters, but he doesn't walk anyone, and he limits damage. If he continues his current path, he could be up at Triple-A Rochester by the end of the 2017 season.
 
6. Adalberto Mejia SP
 
Acquired from the Giants in trading Eduardo Nunez, Mejia is about as good of a return as the Twins could have gotten. He's a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, and he absolutely should be capable of being a big league starter. His strikeout numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, but he limits damage by not allowing free passes. Coming into the year, Mejia will be one of the first guys called upon to slide into the Twins starting rotation.
 
5. Fernando Romero SP
 
21 years old and already mastering High-A Fort Myers, 2016 was an exciting year for Romero. Coming off a missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Romero looked as good as ever. Making 16 starts across Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, his 1.89 ERA dazzled. He has strikeout stuff, and this season, took a big step forward in limiting walks as well. If Romero flashed what we should expect from him going forward, he's going to be a top of the rotation arm, and could be one of Minnesota's best kept secrets.
 
4. Tyler Jay SP
 
Ranking Tyler Jay is somewhat difficult, because the jury is still out on what he becomes. Operating solely as a reliever in college, he transitioned to a starter full time for Minnesota. His numbers were solid at High-A Fort Myers, but he got lit up pitching for Double-A Chattanooga. He has strikeout stuff, but has to scale it back some when starting. 2017 will be big for the former Illinois pitcher as it will likely go a long ways in determining the Twins future plans for him. If Jay ends up being a reliever, he could be a very, very good one. That said, even the most elite reliever isn't something you're hoping for with the 6th overall draft pick.
 
3. Nick Gordon SS
 
If there's someone you should be watching in the Arizona Fall League, it's Gordon. He was drafted as a shortstop and expected to stick because of his glove. Thus far, the leather has gotten worse, and it was especially bad in 2016. He made 26 errors for Fort Myers this season, and there's some real doubts now that he sticks at the premium position. The bat has begun to come around, and his .721 OPS was a career best, but the 20 year old will need to continue to grow as a whole if he's going to be an asset up the middle for Minnesota.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
This time in 2017, Kirilloff has a chance to be the Twins top prospect, and he could go a long ways to being one of the best in baseball with another strong year. Playing for Elizabethton after getting drafted, Kirilloff's bat just destroyed the lague. He ended with a .794 OPS, but hovered around a .340 average for most of the year. He launched seven homers, and the power, both gap and home run, was as real as it was suggested. He's a bat first prospect, and continuing to hit will be his ticket to advancing. After the initial showing though, betting against him would seem foolish.
 
1. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
After Jose Berrios, Gonsalves has quickly emerged as the Twins most important pitching prospect. Pairing him in the big league rotation with other young arms is a must. He dominated the Florida State League across 11 starts, and then was even better for Double-A Chattanooga. Gonsalves is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and is he can continue to hone is his command, he has a very high ceiling. Just 22 years old, he could get to the big leagues in 2017, and making himself a fixture for plenty of years to come seems like a good bet.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the 2016 regular season in the books, the Arizona Fall League underway, and the Major League Baseball season barreling towards the World Series, it's time to take a look at what's to come for the Minnesota Twins. The last prospect update here at Off The Baggy was the 2016 Midseason Top 15 (you can find that here).
 
As 2017 gets underway for the Twins, Derek Falvey will be tasked with getting the organization back on track. A large group of youth has already graduated from prospect status, but it's the young talent that the Twins will have to build their turnaround on. Despite no longer being a top five farm system, there's plenty of talent on the way. With that out of the way, let's get into it.
 
15. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
The Aussie starter remains one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system. He has the stuff to be a capable middle of the rotation arm, but injuries have derailed his development. Still just 20 years old, Thorpe hasn't seen live actions since 2014 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. He was supposed to be back on the mound post Tommy John this year, but never could get healthy. 2016 remains a pivotal campaign for him. When right, he's a top 10 prospect for Minnesota.
 
14. Jake Reed RP
 
I really thought Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal.
 
13. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
 
A third round pick in 2015, Blankenhorn is already at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Just 20 years old and taken out of high school, he really started coming into his own last season. After tearing it up for Elizabethton, Blankenhorn had a solid .774 OPS in 25 games for the Kernels. He's got pop in his bat, and should continue to swing his way up the Twins system.
 
12. Nick Burdi RP
 
Like Thorpe, Burdi lost some really significant development time in 2016. He was injured down in Fort Myers during spring training in a fluke accident, and then couldn't get himself healthy enough to pitch with other injuries throughout the year. When he's right, his stuff reaches triple-digits, and penciling him in as a future closer makes a ton of sense. If Burdi can prove he's healthy, and hone in his command a bit, he should join the Twins quickly in 2017.
 
11. Wander Javier SS
 
Speculation and projection remains the key to Javier and his ranking. The Twins spent a boatload on the international free agent out of the Dominican. He's just 17 and played only nine games in the Dominican Summer League during 2016 due to injury. His ceiling is as high as anyone on this list, and if everything breaks right, he could be a star. Javier should be stateside for 2017 and seeing how he does in the lower rookie levels is something to monitor in the year ahead.
 
10. Daniel Palka OF
 
Voted by many publications as the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Palka came to the organization in the Chris Herrmann trade. He hits for ridiculous power and was one of the top home run producers in both the Southern and International Leagues this season. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but from a bat perspective, you might not find a better power tool in other organizations.
 
9. Adam Brett Walker OF
The only reason that Palka's power tool isn't the most impressive among Twins prospects is because Walker exists. Once again this season, Walker made a mockery of pitches that he sent over the fence. His game and raw power are easily 80 grade, and while that remains his greatest asset, he's continued to hold his own while moving up to Triple-A. The swing and miss tendency is real, and his arm isn't good enough to be an every day corner outfielder, but he should be considered as an extra off the bench for the Twins sooner rather than later.
 
8. Kohl Stewart SP
 
If there's a prospect I'm more down on than anyone else for the Twins, it's Stewart. After being selected 4th overall in 2013, he's consistently taken steps backwards. A consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2015, he's fallen off of nearly every top 100 list. Stewart is still young at just 22 and already pitching at Double-A. Unfortunately, he has shown very little ability to strike anyone out, his command has progressively gotten worse, and he's now strung together multiple seasons of injury concerns. The upside remains apparent, but Stewart's stock has plummeted. He's got time to turn the tables, and that taking place would be huge.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
Creating prospect lists requires players to be evaluated on their own accord. Jorge's ceiling isn't as high as some of the other names on this list, but his floor should also be much more projectable. He looks the part of a mid-to-back-end starter, and he's up to Double-A at 22 years old. Jorge's stuff is never going to overpower hitters, but he doesn't walk anyone, and he limits damage. If he continues his current path, he could be up at Triple-A Rochester by the end of the 2017 season.
 
6. Adalberto Mejia SP
 
Acquired from the Giants in trading Eduardo Nunez, Mejia is about as good of a return as the Twins could have gotten. He's a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, and he absolutely should be capable of being a big league starter. His strikeout numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, but he limits damage by not allowing free passes. Coming into the year, Mejia will be one of the first guys called upon to slide into the Twins starting rotation.
 
5. Fernando Romero SP
 
21 years old and already mastering High-A Fort Myers, 2016 was an exciting year for Romero. Coming off a missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Romero looked as good as ever. Making 16 starts across Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, his 1.89 ERA dazzled. He has strikeout stuff, and this season, took a big step forward in limiting walks as well. If Romero flashed what we should expect from him going forward, he's going to be a top of the rotation arm, and could be one of Minnesota's best kept secrets.
 
4. Tyler Jay SP
 
Ranking Tyler Jay is somewhat difficult, because the jury is still out on what he becomes. Operating solely as a reliever in college, he transitioned to a starter full time for Minnesota. His numbers were solid at High-A Fort Myers, but he got lit up pitching for Double-A Chattanooga. He has strikeout stuff, but has to scale it back some when starting. 2017 will be big for the former Illinois pitcher as it will likely go a long ways in determining the Twins future plans for him. If Jay ends up being a reliever, he could be a very, very good one. That said, even the most elite reliever isn't something you're hoping for with the 6th overall draft pick.
 
3. Nick Gordon SS
 
If there's someone you should be watching in the Arizona Fall League, it's Gordon. He was drafted as a shortstop and expected to stick because of his glove. Thus far, the leather has gotten worse, and it was especially bad in 2016. He made 26 errors for Fort Myers this season, and there's some real doubts now that he sticks at the premium position. The bat has begun to come around, and his .721 OPS was a career best, but the 20 year old will need to continue to grow as a whole if he's going to be an asset up the middle for Minnesota.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
This time in 2017, Kirilloff has a chance to be the Twins top prospect, and he could go a long ways to being one of the best in baseball with another strong year. Playing for Elizabethton after getting drafted, Kirilloff's bat just destroyed the lague. He ended with a .794 OPS, but hovered around a .340 average for most of the year. He launched seven homers, and the power, both gap and home run, was as real as it was suggested. He's a bat first prospect, and continuing to hit will be his ticket to advancing. After the initial showing though, betting against him would seem foolish.
 
1. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
After Jose Berrios, Gonsalves has quickly emerged as the Twins most important pitching prospect. Pairing him in the big league rotation with other young arms is a must. He dominated the Florida State League across 11 starts, and then was even better for Double-A Chattanooga. Gonsalves is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and is he can continue to hone is his command, he has a very high ceiling. Just 22 years old, he could get to the big leagues in 2017, and making himself a fixture for plenty of years to come seems like a good bet.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin.
 
Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins.
 
Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness.
 
Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013.
 
Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man.
 
Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove.
 
I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield.
 
Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games.
 
Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more.
 
From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

At this point in the season, there's enough doom and gloom surrounding a Twins team with over 90 losses to go around. Arguably the most perfect way to overlook all of that is simply by understanding just how impressive the season Brian Dozier is currently having is. Having gone from non-prospect to elite slugger, Dozier is rewriting the record books in 2016.
 
Rather than go into any further analysis, or try and wrap my head around exactly what Dozier is doing this season, let's let the numbers talk for themselves. That's it, no meat and potatoes here. Just feast your eyes on the numbers below and look in awe as Brian Dozier continues to put up one of the best seasons in Major League Baseball by a second basemen ever.

Brian Dozier sits at 38 homers while playing second base in 2016. That is second most (behind Alfonso Soriano's 39) all-time in the American League, and trails Rogers Hornsby's 42 for the 1922 Cardinals overall.
In 139 games during 2016, Dozier has hit 40 homers. He has never eclipsed 28 in a single season previously (157 G in 2015), and hit just 16 homers in 365 MiLB contests.
Since returning to the lineup (following a two-game benching) on May 25, 2016 Brian Dozier is slashing .307/.371/.671 and has posted a career best .277/.348/.574 line on the season.
Brian Dozier's 40 homers are second in all of baseball, trailing Baltimore's Mark Trumbo by just one long ball.
On the season, Dozier owns a .297 ISO (measurement of a hitter's raw power). That mark is second best in all of baseball trailing only Boston's David Ortiz (.311)
To date, Dozier has been worth 5.7 fWAR for the Twins. That mark is easily his highest career fWAR and is good enough to make him the 9th most valuable player in all of baseball (7th in the American League).
Of his 40 homers, 20 of them have gone more than 400 feet.
By Fangraphs estimation of fWAR converted to dollars, Brian Dozier has been worth $45.9 million to the Twins this season. He is being paid $3 million.

I'll leave you with this image of Brian Dozier's home run spray chart for 2016.

Today, the New York Mets became the team to sign former Florida Gators and NFL quarterback Tim Tebow to a minor league contract. The assumption is that he'll head to either the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. From essentially the news of a Tebow tryout broke, there have been feelings on both sides of the fence. When considering my stance, I simply can't get over the ridiculousness of the message both the Mets and professional baseball is sending.
 
As of today, Tim Tebow is a 29 year old that has not played organized baseball since he was a well rounded athlete at Neese High School. He's played since at The Swamp, and in big time NFL stadiums. He's been a quarterback, and now a TV Analyst. At no point in over ten years has he ever been a baseball player, until now.
 
Let's address a couple of the rebuttals I've seen on the interwebs this far. No, I don't dislike Tim Tebow. In fact, I believe he's a better NFL quarterback than at least a handful of current backups, and I'd personally rather see him start than one NFL quarterback. Whether you agree or not is irrelevant, the point is that I don't have a vengeance against the man at all. In fact, I think he's been blackballed from the sport he fits in simply because of the media frenzy that baseball is welcoming.
 
Secondly, there's this notion that it's just a minor league signing and that excuses any ill-advised decisions because they are (for the majority) all low risk crapshoots. Sure, there's a ton of players in minor league baseball, and a very minute amount that will ever reach the big leagues. Tebow though, was graded above average only in speed and raw power. When considering how fast you can run, or how far you can hit a meatball, teams don't typically line up to offer contracts to those that are received warmly.
 
I'd make the argument that hitting a baseball is quite possibly the most difficult athletic feat there is. A small round object is being thrown towards you at speeds of nearly 100 mph and you are tasked to make a split second decision to swing, and make contact, with a small round bat. It's not for the faint of heart, and those that are projected to develop into being capable of competing at the highest level have significant signs in their corner.
 
Understanding where Tebow is on his developmental curve, and the fact that he's at essentially the age a player typically reaches their prime, expecting him to progress substantially is a fool's errand. A below average thrower, hitter, and fielder, investing into him as a project could be better served with a player that may actually allow you to reap dividends.
 
It's not at all fair for me to suggest that the New York Mets are signing Tim Tebow simply as a publicity stunt. Obviously Tebow doesn't need the media attention, but it'd be silly not to assume that jersey sales and affiliate ticket sales wouldn't rise because of his presence. That all being said, GM Sandy Alderson isn't doing himself any favors to dispel the notion that's all this is either. Today he even went as far as wondering whether the Mets may have the former quarterback invited to big league spring training.
 
At the end of the day, the grind through minor league baseball is far from an easy one. It takes countless hours devoted to a craft you already possess better than average skills for. It's not for the faint of heart, and more often than not, it ends in heartbreak. Tebow is attacking that reality by working out with the Mets that he will continue to serve ESPN as an SEC analyst on the weekends, and he may even be on an Arizona Fall League (usually reserved for an organization's top talents) roster.
 
The showcase treatment for Tim Tebow as if he were some Cuban superstar was amazing in and of itself. The way the Mets have allowed it to progress from there has taken an even more interesting turn. Minor League baseball is professional baseball after all, and it shouldn't be used as a proving ground to try and expand decade old skills. Absolutely baseball has been looking for ways to drive new viewers to the sport, but making a mockery of itself in the form of some participation-trophy-esque fashion is a sad development.
 
There will be minor leagues that likely welcome the opportunity to be starstruck by the former NFL player, but if really considering it at its core, I'd assume the idea of Tebow being given a free pass isn't thrilling. There's a place for this kind of thing in non-affiliated Indy Leagues, but let's stop pretending this is any more legitimate than the farce it should be seen as.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin.
 
Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins.
 
Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness.
 
Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013.
 
Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man.
 
Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove.
 
I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield.
 
Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games.
 
Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more.
 
From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin.
 
Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins.
 
Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness.
 
Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013.
 
Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man.
 
Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove.
 
I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield.
 
Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games.
 
Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more.
 
From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In 2016, the Minnesota Twins have been among the worst teams in baseball. While that's far from an ideal situation, the reality is that it's provided an opportunity for the organization to get a look at a lot of different players. In too many cases though, they haven't taken it. Why not remains a realistic question.
 
You can almost take your pick as to which players you may want to shake your head at getting significant time for Minnesota. Danny Santana has played in 75 games this season, Juan Centeno has caught 44, Ryan O'Rourke is currently on the big league roster, and Neil Ramirez was given over a month of poor performances before being sent packing. Over the course of the season, Paul Molitor has gone with plenty of low ceiling options.
 
Now, if the Twins were looking to field the team with the most veteran presence, there's probably some merit to their roster construction. The reality however, is that this team hasn't been good since the get go, and they really owe nobody anything. Poor performances didn't need to be compounded by lengthy stays on the 25 man roster. While Minnesota would have been promoting inexperience, it's that youth that is going to be relied upon to turn things around.
 
Highlighting the scenario as a whole is a current member of the starting rotation, Andrew Albers. Albers hasn't started a major league game since 2013, for a Twins team that finished the year 66-96 while also having Cole DeVries and P.J. Walters make starts. Since then, he was a failed starter in Korea (5.89 ERA in 28 starts), and played a game in the Atlantic League for the Lancaster Barnstormers. Now starting for Minnesota, he was added to the 40 man roster over a more deserving option in Jason Wheeler.
 
Wheeler, a 25 year old 8th round draft pick by the Twins, owns a 3.23 ERA in 23 Triple-A starts this season. He's not a high strikeout guy, owning just a 6.4 K/9 over 131 minor league starts. He pitched the final game for Double-A Chattanooga a season ago to win the Southern League title, and he's owned a 3.04 ERA in 2016 after resurfacing in Triple-A. By all measures, Wheeler has earned it at this point.
 
It's in these situations that the Twins appear to be operating with a confusing knowledge of their own organization. Sure, Wheeler is far from a sure thing, but when a 40 man roster move is needed regardless, putting the developed player with some upside in position to compete seems like a better bet than the castoff retread. In failing to understand these principles, the Twins turn an already bad season, into one that they learn little as well.
 
You have to ask yourself what the Twins may have been able to learn from Mitch Garver, D.J. Baxendale, or Jake Reed at the big league level right now. As rosters expand, they could easily be called up. No matter the 40 man situation, Minnesota is far from a position in which they don't have warm bodies occupying roster spots. Rather than lose and do so without purpose, using the stretch run as an acclimation process seems to be an ideal scenario.
 
At some point, you'd hope that the Twins would put stock in the players they've drafted, and seemingly developed. You can't assume they'll all work out, but rather than going out and cycling through the Neil Ramirez's and Edward Mujica's of the world, playing time at the highest levels for those expected to carry some realistic weight would be a good idea.
 
Sooner rather than later, the Twins need to understand (and covey that) what they have at their disposal, and actually use it.
 
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If you've been reading Off The Baggy at all this season, there's been no one I've been more all over the place on than Brian Dozier. From wondering if he's selling out too much, or becoming defiant in his approach during his down swing, to marveling at his uptick, his season has been a roller coaster ride. Since May 25 however, he's turned it on, and the results have been incredible.
 
At this point, you know what Brian Dozier is. He's a pull hitter, although doing so less often than in 2015 (just 54.9% of the time this season). He hits most of his homers to left field, and he's an adequate defender. This season, more of Dozier's fly balls are leaving the yard (15.8% HR/FB ratio) and he's hitting 32.9% of balls he puts in play with hard contact.
 
Let's end the statistical analysis there though and look at the ridiculousness of the numbers he's provided us in 2016.
 
In 2012, Dozier burst onto the scene during spring training. Many wanted him to come north with the club as the starting shortstop. He ended up being promoted in May and owned a career worst .603 OPS while playing a very poor defensive shortstop. Since transitioning to second base, Dozier has gone from non-prospect to relative national name.
Over the course of his career, Dozier has amassed 14.0 fWAR, which is already 25th best in Minnesota Twins history. Among franchise second basemen, only Rod Carew and Chuck Knoblauch have a higher total than Brian. Really, what fuels his rise though, has been the power numbers.
 
This season, Dozier has set a new career high in longballs for the Twins with 29 (excluding his wiped out shot in the Twins suspended game). Over the course of Major League Baseball's entire history, only 39 times has a second basemen hit that many. He becomes just the 18th second basemen in big league history to reach that plateau.
 
As things stand currently, Dozier is on pace to set career highs in multiple different categories. His batting average of .268 is well above his career mark of .245, and his .877 OPS is over 100 points better than his previous career best of .762 set in 2014. He's already tripled five times this season, another career high, and his 87 strikeouts have him on pace to post a career low by a longshot.
 
Considering the power output, Dozier also compare favorably across all of baseball position-wide. His ISO of .268 is easily the best mark of his career, and currently puts him 12th in the big leagues during 2016. That mark is higher than that of names such as Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout.
 
Thus far, the Twins have played 125 games, meaning they've got 37 left to go. Calculating off of his current pace, Dozier would end the season with 38 homers. That would be the 9th highest single season total in Twins franchise history, and the highest by a player not named Harmon Killebrew. 38 homers would tie for the 7th most in major league history during a single season by a second basemen.
 
To summarize, Brian Dozier went from a fun spring training story, to a failed shortstop, to an incredibly polarizing second basemen. He's now one of the game's most legitimate middle infield power hitters, and the Twins are season production at levels they've never before experienced. To put it bluntly, Brian Dozier is a lot of fun.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz