Ted Schwerzler

If there’s one thing that the Minnesota Twins have been big on since June of 2001 is Joseph Patrick Mauer. The organization was behind him as the first overall pick, as a three-time batting champion, and MVP, and the recipient of a massive contract extension. At no point since that mid-summer day has the Minnesota Twins not been big on Joe Mauer. In 2019, that trend will continue. It didn’t take long for the organization to announce that the number 7 would be retired. 35 players donned that digit, with Denny Hocking to be the last wearing it prior to Mauer. Going forward, it will be enshrined among the Twins other untouchable uniforms and the honor will deservedly be placed upon the former catcher. After announcing his retirement in November 2018, the ball was expected to get rolling on a handful of different glorifying initiatives. The retirement of “7” was a logical first step but has proven to be just one of the first things considered. Today the organization announced that a ceremony will be held to appropriately convey the honor on June 15. To make sure he’s celebrated through the season, a series of five bobbleheads depicting different moments of Joe’s career will be handed out to fans as well. Through a reorganization of the Target Plaza just outside of Gate 34, the Twins will be adding new entrance points into the stadium. While nothing has been solidified, it’s beyond logical to assume that one of the new gates will be used to commemorate Joe. For a quiet and limelight avoiding superstar like Mauer, a bronze statue is probably a bit much. Given that statues have become a customary addition to the grounds outside the field, it only seems necessary that the latest organization altering retiree find himself among those depicted. Nothing has been announced in terms of a celebratory patch for Minnesota’s 2019 uniforms, and the on-field product has all but moved on from a player no longer contributing to it. However, if the Twins were to find a way to incorporate a symbol on their uniforms, or in the field of play itself, there’d be no reason for backlash. In trying to quantify his impact and compare it to the adoration being shown since his decision, the Twins have taken every step in a most perfect direction. The reality is that Mauer had a Puckett or Killebrew-like impact on this ballclub and making sure the sendoff is more than just a simple something in passing was always the right decision. At the end of the day Mauer will always deal with detractors that can’t wrap their head around him having been underpaid in relation to his value. His impact wasn’t flashy enough to draw the full-throat support of others. Regardless of the irrelevant minority, this long, big, and well-earned sendoff has been everything a Mauer fan could have hoped for. Around five years from now, a second publicity tour would provide another fun opportunity for Twins fans to adore the Mauer that was. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow at @tlschwerz

Without being mean or rude, I couldn't disagree more. There's nothing a bullpen today needs less than a "proven closer." Also, Parker has 20 saves, Reed has plenty, and there's other guys who have filled that role. Give me a pen full of guys with setup capabilities over "9th inning arms" all day long. I'm not saying that Rogers, Hildenberger, and May make it fair for the Twins to sign Parker and no one else, but they certainly don't need a guy solely for saves. In 2019 I'd expect Baldelli to have at least 3 guys who all record 10 saves.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are expected to reach a deal with Blake Parker in short order. The 33-year-old will turn 34 during the 2019 season and is looking to improve upon a 3.26 ERA posted during 2018. The former Angels reliver is Minnesota’s first pitching acquisition of the offseason, and for a bullpen needing some help, is hardly aiming to high. Given the internal options however, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could certainly be rolling the dice on how some holdover names bounce back for 2019. Relief pitching is one of the most unpredictable assets in baseball year over year. Unless you’ve got an arm among the elite upper echelon of the sport, expecting consistency on an annual basis is a crapshoot highlighting the desire for teams to acquire arms on one-year deals. For Parker, there’s reasons to believe he’ll be as effective out of the bullpen as the likes of Zach Britton, Cody Allen, or any other player cut from a similar cloth. He’s not going to require much of a commitment from the squad, and he’ll help to raise the water level over the Matt Magill and Tyler Duffey types. It’s become apparent that Minnesota isn’t going to be a player on one of those elite talents at this point. Craig Kimbrel is really the only name left in that group, and even Adam Ottavino is a 33-year-old with a less than ideal track record. I wholeheartedly support the notion that Minnesota should be allocating funds to bring in another arm for the sake of talent, but the difference making presence certainly could come from within. While not remembering if I’ve discussed it in this space, I’ve tweeted often about the prospects of Fernando Romero as a reliever. It’s more than fair to dream about him as a top of the rotation starter, but right now he may not be there. Utilized in short bursts out of the pen, his electric fastball could be paired with one other offering allowing him to be relied upon by Rocco Baldelli. Starting out in somewhat of a middle relief scenario and eventually transitioning to high leverage, expecting the ceiling to be anything but through the roof for Romero seems shortsighted. There’s another guy that certainly could end up being the cream of the crop for the Twins in 2019 however, and he was worthy of a two-year pact just last offseason. Addison Reed is just 30 years old and signed a contract for $16.75 million over two years. He was coming off a two year stretch with a 2.40 ERA 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. Not tabbed to be the closer with Fernando Rodney in the fold, Reed brought high leverage and back-end experience to the pen. We know how his 2018 went and calling it suboptimal would be putting it nicely. He gave up far too much contract, lost velocity, and was batted around the park. Can 2019 be different though? Dealing with triceps tightness Reed hit the disabled list for the first time in his career last season. The move took place in early July and was a precursor for a season that simply wouldn’t get back on track. Owning an average 93 mph fastball in 2017 the juice had dipped to just 91.3 mph last season. After generating swinging strikes a career high 13.7% of the time in 2017, Reed got them just 10.7% of the time last season. Batters weren’t chasing, and the 78% contract rating was among the highest of his tenure in the big leagues. Going into the upcoming year there may be no more important player to the Twins eventual success than Reed. There’s no denying that having some stability around Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a must. Romero represents a nice upside play, and Parker will certainly help to support the group. As a new manager with a pen in flex Baldelli needs the best version of Reed for what lies ahead. Another opportunity at a payday is also in store for the California native, and slotting back into the late innings would do wonders for his future value. It remains to be seen if Reed is both health and effective, but a perfect mix would’ve made him among the most coveted arms on the open market in this circuit as well. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I do believe they were noted as in on Familia, Miller, and Soria. I have flip flopped a bit though after digging a bit deeper. There’s still plenty of teams looking for relief help, but I tweeted out a bunch of realistic possibilities earlier today.

After laying in the weeds for a handful of weeks, the Minnesota Twins made another free agency splash in the form of signing designated hitter Nelson Cruz. A hulking power threat with a respectable level of on-base skills, the former Mariners slugger is an ideal fit for Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. In 2019 though, Steamer projections tab him as the high-water mark in terms of fWAR across the entirety of the club, and that is what will determine the fate of the season.In coming up with his 3.0 fWAR total, Steamer has Cruz slated for a .282/.361/.533 slash line with 36 homers and 104 RBI. For a guy who’s played a grand total of nine games in the field since 2016, it’s his bat that will solely carry the production. The numbers projected for Cruz are right on par with fair expectations. Despite him being 38 years-old, there’s little indication that a steep decline is about to set in. His batted ball profile is still at an elite level, and Target Field is a stadium even more friendly to his approach at the dish. What I’m getting at here isn’t where Nelson Cruz winds up, but instead how the rest of his teammates fare in comparison to his projected production. Last season Paul Molitor’s Twins had two players surpass the 3.0 fWAR mark. Eddie Rosario finished with a 3.4 fWAR and Jose Berrios ended with a 3.3 fWAR. Neither Miguel Sano or Max Kepler has surpassed the 3.0 fWAR bar, and Byron Buxton’s 3.5 fWAR in 2017 seems a distant memory at the current juncture. It’s in performances from those players that this team will go, however. There’s no denying that the Cleveland Indians have left the door open in the AL Central for 2019. They’re coming off just a 91-win season in which they got career years from Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger. It’s fair to expect sustainability from some of that elite talent, but they’ve also lost Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, and Lonnie Chisenhall, while also teasing the idea of dealing Corey Kluber. This is more of a retooling for Cleveland as they add new assets, but the immediate future leaves the division up for grabs. Minnesota cannot simply rest on their laurels at this point, and I’d assume we’ll see at least another signing or two prior to spring training taking place. Though the bullpen is an area still needing improvement, it’s the lineup that will push this club over the top. Generating 3.0+ fWAR seasons from the likes of Sano, Buxton, or Kepler is a must. Getting that level of production out of new additions Jonathan Schoop or C.J. Cron could also be necessary. The former surpassed that plateau as an All-Star in 2017, while the later would be looking at a career year in realizing that value. There’s nothing wrong with suggesting Nelson Cruz reach the 3.0 fWAR bar for the fifth time in the last six seasons. He was a key acquisition and the talent speaks for itself. What Minnesota can’t have happen however, is that to be the only player capable of production at that level. Seeing Rosario or Berrios take drastic steps backwards would be nearly as detrimental as watching the young trio of offensive talent flop yet again. When signing Cruz, the front office suggested a message of immediate competition. Though there’s a option for the pact to be a two-year deal, the hope is that Cruz helps to solidify the roster, rather than to anchor it. By pairing his production with what you’d hope is already internally available, Minnesota would be looking at a best-case scenario. It’s relatively hard to tie team production to a projected fWAR mark. However, I feel good about suggesting that if the Twins can have Cruz at the suggested level with at least three teammates producing above him, they’ll have a very good shot at winning the division when the dust settles. If that ends up not being the case, and should the writing be on the wall early in the summer, the newest asset could find himself gone almost before he ever got started. Click here to view the article

Expecting somewhat of a breakout campaign for Max Kepler in 2018 was a relatively accepted possibility going into last season. When the dust settled, his .727 OPS was the lowest of his career and there was no denying his performance left plenty to be desired. Rectifying the ability to hit left-handed pitchers, he fell off against righties and the offense tanked. 2019 represents new opportunity, and according to at least one project system, there’s some reason to get excited. Steamer projections have the Twins outfielder pegged for 2.6 fWAR in 2019, a mark that would replicate his 2018 season. Although the result is similar, the path to get there is a new one. A .779 OPS with a .336 OBP is suggested for the German native and those would both be massive boosts to career .730 and .313 marks respectively. So, in other words, the bat arrives. Last season Kepler’s value was heavily tied to his defensive presence. With Byron Buxton shelved due to ineffectiveness and injury, Max was called to take on a more demanding presence in the outfield. He tallied 390 innings in center after having played 90 total in the two years prior. His 10 DRS and 10.8 UZR both blew previous tallies out of the water, and even the eye test suggested that the mainstay in the Minnesota outfield was a great glove. I’ve previously discussed some of the reasons that Kepler appeared to be hampered in 2018. He has consistently vocalized a desire to put the ball on the ground, and while his hit profile suggested he was accomplishing lifting the ball more last season, it wasn’t at an optimal level. His launch angle increased, and the hard-hit rate was a career high, but a lack of line drives held him back given the ground ball outputs and failed HR/FB ratio. On top of how he was putting the ball in play, Kepler shifted his platoon splits drastically year over year. After struggling mightily with lefties in 2017, his .745 OPS was a drastic improvement. Posting an .828 OPS against righties in 2017 kept his head above water, but that mark dipped all the way down to .720 last season. Settling in more of a middle ground would give Rocco Baldelli a greater assurance that Kepler is capable of being deployed daily and expecting a high level of value no matter who is on the bump. Looking ahead to what Steamer sees of Kepler in the season ahead, it’s hard not to draw loose comparisons to some of the realities Byron Buxton faces. Kepler has elevated his defensive profile to be a real asset on its own and pushing his OPS anywhere near the .800 mark would genuinely elevate him to a star player level. I’ve found myself bullish on Max believing him to be better than the likes of Eddie Rosario going forward, and it’s this all-encompassing ability that would drive that notion. Max doesn’t have to be a world beater at the plate to take the next step, but if a couple of tweaks are made, this is a guy we’re talking about for years to come. There’s long been a notion that defense doesn’t slump, so maybe the Steamer projections shouldn’t come as a surprise. If Kepler is in fact the second-most valuable Twins player in 2019, I’m not sure that’s anything but positive. Needing a handful of former top prospects to hit on all cylinders this season, Minnesota will be successful as a sum of its greater parts. With the calendar now turned over, Kepler has an opportunity to be the guy everything indicates he’s capable of. Now we wait and see what happens. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Not long after Santa had gotten back to the North Pole, Minnesota decided that the lineup could use one more present. After being connected to him for weeks, the front office finally landed slugging designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Assuming the lineup is now all but addressed, it’s time to turn the focus over to pitching. Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation potentially has one opening, but it’s the bullpen where a more pressing need can be felt. Looking at a dwindling list of options, and some likely out of the realm of possibility, it’s worth wondering if the largest contributor may come from within.Fernando Romero has been placed near the top of Minnesota Twins prospect lists for the better part of the past few years now. He cracked top 100 prospect lists for the first time entering the 2018 season, and his solid showing with Triple-A Rochester in his third season removed from Tommy John surgery earned him his eventual major league debut. As with all starting pitchers, the goal would be to keep them on the mound for something like 200 innings over the course of a season. During his 125-inning output in 2017 with Chattanooga, Romero posted a 3.53 ERA bolstered by an 8.6 K/9. Those numbers were plenty respectable but didn’t jibe with the 1.89 ERA and 9.0 K/9 (paired with a 1.5 BB/9) split between two levels of Single-A in 2016. Looking to get the most out of their 24-year-old hurler with an upper 90’s fastball, the Twins could pivot to a role in relief. Despite owning a fastball that sat just shy of 96mph on average during 2018, Romero consistently left the Twins wanting more. As Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson pointed out, the thought regarding Romero’s profile generally presents the consensus that “This guy's dominant, let's get the most innings out of him we can.” He goes on to note however, that the results haven’t been indicative of that reality. With a sub 7.0 K/9 at Triple-A in 2018, and just barely breaking that mark at the big-league level, it’s apparent the ability isn’t translating to output. With a freakish fastball-slider combination, Romero can push velocity while also forcing the batter to stay on his toes. He’s utilized the heavy heat roughly two-thirds of the time while turning to his slider as the top secondary offering. Although both pitches should present difficulties to opposing hitters, 2018 saw a chase rate of just 30% and a swinging strike rate of only 10.6% for Romero. To offer some perspective, both of those marks are essentially the same profile that Jake Odorizzi posted a season ago. There’s little denying that the Twins expected a more drastic strikeout profile from Romero. Whether or not the issues stem from settling back into a full workload, or it’s more in relation to the ineffectiveness of a quality third pitch, new pitching coach Wes Johnson will be looking to unlock the 90th percentile of where Romero’s capabilities lie. Considering his youth, there’s hardly a reason to look at a move to the pen as a death sentence, or even a forever destination. Knowing the Twins need to pair more impact arms with the likes of Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, and Trevor Hildenberger however, it’s hard not to salivate at the thought of what a quick burst Romero could look like. Baseball has long since changed to be a game that doesn’t force relievers into set roles. While there’s a small number of guys still chasing saves, the best relievers in the game are called upon to put out fires when their teams need them most. Affording Baldelli the opportunity to unleash a Romero that shoves near 100mph and totes a double-digit K/9 when a lead is in jeopardy is beyond an exciting proposition. Given the financial flexibility still afforded to the club, something like $30 million shy of the 2018 Opening Day payroll, an acquisition or two for the pen should be a certainty. Raising the water level of the group by transitioning what could be the best internal option into the group only makes the collective that much more exciting. If the bullpen is rounded out by a group with names like Moya or Vasquez, you’d be asking unproven commodities to do quite a bit. A key free agent or two, plus Romero, turns the likes of May, Rogers, and Hildenberger into valuable pieces rounding out the depth instead of horses tasked with carrying the load. We certainly don’t have the answer as to whether Romero unlocks his potential in relief, but nothing we’ve seen as a starter suggests he’s there, in that starter role, currently. Narrowing the focus, using his two best pitches, and letting it fly in short stints could have both Fernando and the Twins looking at a player that performs at somewhat of an unstoppable level. Considering the current deficiency in that area, it’s a proposition that should be relatively easy to get behind. Click here to view the article

Yes, as I mentioned, there's certainly time left. There are dwindling assets on the open market however, and deciding to not utilize open cash to differentiate is not a blueprint I'm a huge fan of.

We’re quickly approaching the close of the 2018 calendar year. While there’s still multiple months before Spring Training commences in sunny Fort Myers, the Minnesota Twins talent acquisition has come in the form of two moves. Both players found themselves on the free agent market by way of non-tender decisions from their previous ballclubs. We saw a patient strategy in 2017 but employing it again could be to the team’s detriment. Despite how the Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison signings worked out for Falvey and Co. last offseason, there’s no denying that both moves made a ton of sense. Morrison represented a power bat the lineup could certainly use, and Lynn allowed the starting rotation an ability to be bolstered by one of the premiere names on the market. Both players were inked to team-friendly dollars, and there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal. It appears that the Twins are content employing a similar level of patience this time around. The problem, however, is that the circumstances had them in a position ripe to jump the market. We’ve heard that a $100 million payroll could be the bar to clear, and much has been made about the uncertainty of both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton’s development. The former is a number that should represent an embarrassing effort towards competitiveness, while the latter strikes this blogger as a backwards way of thinking. Right now, we’ve yet to see Sano and Buxton put it all together over a consistent period. Minnesota obviously has reservations about whether it will happen for the two former top prospects but planning for anything other than full speed ahead comes with quite a few issues. First, Sano and Buxton will never be cheaper than they are right now. Whether they explode or not, arbitration raises will continue to increase their rate of pay. Should things go according to plan, the dollars will mount considerably in the next few seasons. Waiting for the next wave of prospects would signify something like a ten year rebuild and comes with the same caveats as to whether the prospect status matures at the highest level. Pairing the current duo with external talent is also just a drop in the bucket in terms of dollars at this point, and nothing hamstrings an organization with zero dollars committed to 2020 and beyond. You can certainly look at the free agent landscape as it stands today and wonder where those extra dollars would be spent. Craig Kimbrel isn’t the most appealing reliever at his ask, and Bryce Harper probably wants little to do with Minnesota. However, we’ve heard about plenty of relievers that the Twins were in on to this point and they simply didn’t want to extend a second year. These are the avenues that strike me as poor planning. Outpacing the competition by showing a willingness for an extra season, or a few extra millions, is something this team is in the perfect position to do. The Twins shed a ton of salary prior to 2019 and have literally nothing on the books for the season after. By being aggressive on some second-tier names, there’s no denying the impact could have been felt in the wins column. At this juncture, there’s a dwindling list of those types left, and the suitors remain a vast and competitive field. As referenced from the get-go, there’s still time left to sort this all out. If Nelson Cruz, Cody Allen, and Zach Britton all end up in Twins Territory the panic button can be put away. When C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are joined by the like of a Zach Duke or Matt Belisle type however, we’ll be vindicated in wondering what was taking place at 1 Twins Way. Regardless of any team’s payroll flexibility, it’s always fair to view deals through a sensible market value meter. That said, there’s nothing wrong with being the aggressor in acquiring talent when you have resources on your side. For years the Twins have been in a situation that extra spending didn’t make sense because a level of competitiveness wasn’t going to be impacted by anything but a total overhaul. Now is not that time, and each additional acquisition can play a key part in a result greater than expected. Waiting for something to fall into your lap has its purpose, but dictating your future often bears greater fruits. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Nearly 20 years ago, a centerfielder was selected sixth overall in the Major League Baseball draft. Three years after being drafted, that same player was highlighted as the second best prospect in all of baseball per Baseball America. Fast forward just seven years from that point, 519 games later, and the career was all over. Rocco Baldelli had officially experienced the highest of highs, and lowest of lows during his professional baseball career. Those exploits could be the key to unlocking what’s next for the Twins expected superstar Byron Buxton.Recently Seth Stohs of Twins Daily reported that the Minnesota Twins new skipper went down to Georgia and met with the heralded centerfielder. Tuesday was Byron’s 25th birthday, and after being in Minnesota recently for a charity event, Buxton was in his own element this time. The meeting included a round of batting practice, and Darren Wolfson reported that the time spent went “very well.” Rocco has been described as a people person, which was evident in his introductory press conference, and connecting with such a similarly destined individual is arguably his greatest task in Twins Territory. By the time he was 25, Baldelli has played in 384 big league games, almost 100 more than Buxton has seen to this point. He owned a .780 OPS and an impressive .289 batting average. Without sugarcoating it, Rocco was vastly superior to Byron numerical at this stage in their careers. Like the mentee, Rocco had also dealt with adversity. The Tampa Bay *Devil* Rays outfielder didn’t play during the 2005 season due to both an ACL tear and Tommy John surgery. He then got in less than 40 games in 2007 and 2008 due to an undiagnosed medical condition. It was the mitochondrial channelopathy that would also abruptly end his career as a 28-year-old in 2010. After what was viewed as such an encouraging spark to close out the 2017 season, Buxton’s MVP votes seemed to be a distant memory last year. Playing in just 28 big league games, the Baxley, Georgia native suffered from foot ailments, migraines, and a multitude of other unforeseen circumstances. When push came to shove the Twins front office decided to play the service time game and invoke the business side of baseball, as opposed to letting their star build some momentum into the offseason. When discussing how the year ended with KSTP last week, there was no uncertainty when it came to how Buxton felt about the decision. Minnesota’s front office was cutthroat, and the player was within his rights to feel like it sucked. The reality is that the past can become irrelevant, depending on how the future unfolds. Should 2019 be a season of resurgence, the two sides will likely be able to celebrate the success together and let bygones be bygones. Although Baldelli can’t make a direct impact on the field, this is where his work begins. Byron Buxton was once considered the best prospect in all of baseball. He’s flashed an ability that has garnered him multiple defensive awards as well as votes feeling that he was the best player in the sport. He’s also fallen from grace causing frustration within the organization, fans, and most likely himself. There’s been adversity along the way, and a significant triumph is the chapter of this story that’s yet to be written. If Minnesota’s new man in charge can connect with a player that is still just a young man, the limit in the sky would still be plenty within reach. Regardless of what talent is acquired, signed, or promoted from within, the long-awaited reality is that the Twins eventual reign over the AL Central has rested upon the shoulders of Buxton and Miguel Sano. The previous manager failed to unleash that ability in tandem and with continual success. As this team looks towards the (bright) future, it will be in the connection Baldelli makes with his team, and the output that is forthcoming from that connection, that ultimately paves the path for what is next at 1 Twins Way. You’ve likely grown sick of hearing that “This could be the year,” or that “Byron is ready to turn a corner,” but if there’s a profile of an individual capable of relating to the talented 2012 first round pick, it’s the man that Buxton now regards as boss. There’s isn’t a character in this story that isn’t hoping for a happy ending, but the author taking over the narrative may just be the spark to turn the page. Click here to view the article

I'd look to try and lock Allen up on a two year deal. If you believe he can rebound, I want year two as well.

After signing Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to deals earlier this month, the Minnesota Twins have been largely quiet. Despite having been linked to a few big bats for the lineup, there’s been no new acquisitions for Rocco Baldelli to pencil into his Opening Day 25-man roster. Looking at where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can upgrade this club, there’s no denying some relief pitching help is a must. A familiar face could be the key acquisition in that area. Cody Allen is the 30-year-old former Cleveland Indians closer. During their peak, it was Allen that often trotted in behind the efforts of Andrew Miller. While Miller was considered the fireman that came on to escape big jams, it was Allen who was routinely asked to close the door. Since 2014 he’s accumulated 147 saves and has surpassed the 30 mark on three separate occasions. In each of those years he tossed at least 67 innings, and his 11.8 K/9 over that stretch is nothing short of impressive. While we aren’t yet into the advanced stages of the offseason, Allen’s market really has yet to take shape. He may eventually see the money expected to come his way entering the 2018 regular season, but the reality is that the latest campaign was a step backwards. Allen posted a career worst 4.70 ERA along with a 4.56 FIP. The strikeout totals dipped to 10.7 per nine, and his 4.4 BB/9 was also a low water mark for his seven-year big league tenure. In trying to deduce what could be next, you must look at Allen’s inputs under the hood. His fastball velocity average 94 mph last season, which was down 0.6 mph from 2017. Allen sat in the mid 96 range back in 2014 and has lost roughly 2 mph on the pitch over the past four seasons. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher, using a fastball and curveball, he went back to being fastball reliant after briefly (and starkly) reversing that trend during 2017. The results yielded more hard contact, less swinging strikes, and an ever-climbing HR/9 tally. This is where the Twins can find opportunity. At 30 years-old, it’d be somewhat shocking if Allen was running out of steam. There’re just over 400 innings on his arm at the big-league level, and he tallied under 100 total innings during two minor league seasons. Allen was drafted and groomed through the Indians system, meaning Falvey should have a rather intimate understanding of his health and ability. Bargaining against his recent performance, future results could be captures at somewhat of a discount. Baldelli likely needs at least two relief arms brought in to shore up the back end of his pitching staff. Minnesota, as you’ve heard, has plenty of cash flow ready for allocation. It’s fair to assume that Allen could be had for a contract like that of Addison Reed a season ago, which then would leave roughly that same amount for another arm to be brought. The Twins acquiring two relievers at something like $8 million a year should lead to a considerable talent influx out of the bullpen. There’s no denying that we may have become enamored with saves years ago, but they don’t tell the story of a pitcher’s true efficiency at this point. Allen however is more than a late inning statistic when he’s right, and if Minnesota determines that 2018 was a fluke, the opportunity to allow him an ability to thrive in a familiar division is more than appealing. We have yet to see the direction Minnesota’s front office is going to take on the mound, but this would be one that should be easy to get behind. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If you’re feeling a bit underwhelmed at the close of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, I’m sure you’re not the only Minnesota Twins fan in that boat. The only free agent acquisitions made thus far include Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes. While the former has big-time potential, there’s not much here to move the needle. Nelson Cruz rumors have started to become noteworthy, but there’s yet to be a deal in place. As Minnesota practices caution, it’s worth wondering if they’re still waiting on internal sustenance.Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton create a duo that rivals almost any other organization's best prospects to hit the big leagues together. Both finished their prospect tenure within the top 10-15 players across all of baseball. While Sano exploded onto the scene as a rookie, it was late in 2017 that Buxton had his coming out party. At the current juncture though, neither has lived up to his potential and both have plenty of questions to answer. Should everything break right, Buxton and Sano could combine for something like 10.0 fWAR during any given season. That would make both players more than relevant during MVP discussions, and it’d certainly have the Minnesota Twins eyeing the top of the AL Central Division standings. Right now, that is the peak, but it’s about getting them there that the Twins in 2019 will focus on. It’s not just that pair when it comes to future success, however. Max Kepler has long been one of Minnesota’s heralded young stars, and it’s time he found consistency of his own. A guy that has been vocal about rebelling against the launch angle revolution, Kepler seemed to make a change in 2018. Although the numbers left him in the same middle state he’d finished in since his debut in 2016, the process seemed to be one worth building upon. Looking back at Kepler’s 2018 season, he posted a career high fly ball rate (46.2%) and married to with a career low 37.8% ground ball rate. His 37.1% hard hit rate was also a high-water mark, and his strikeout rate was below 20% for the first time (15.7%). Hitting the ball higher and harder is a great start, but a .236 BABIP on a .224 average suggest his trajectory has plenty of work left to be done. Turning more of the fly balls into line drives should open avenues for more pop outs to become extra base hits or home runs. Plate discipline is something Max has consistently improved upon since reaching the big leagues. He was at his best across the board last year, notching impressive totals for chase rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact numbers. Again, it’s just another notch on the checklist of a process being committed to. What both Kepler and hitting coach James Rowson now need to unlock is the results. There’s no denying Minnesota’s future and sustained success relies on the backs of Sano and Buxton. Those two alone aren’t going to be able to carry the burden for the club however and having other key contributors in a similar age bracket is a must. Jose Berrios can anchor the rotation, and Eddie Rosario’s ability will be utilized as long as it lasts. Kepler has the tools to be a big-time star as well though, and the only thing holding him back is the unlocked potential of the entire tool arsenal at his disposal. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should certainly be ridiculed if they fail to spend appropriately this winter. The money is more than available, and opportunity is on the table for Rocco Baldelli’s club. It’s understandable that they’d be a bit hesitant at making the big moves before seeing how some key guys already within the organization respond when backed up against a make or break situation. Bringing in new talent only to suffer another year of internal flops would be anything but ideal, but a commitment to supplementing, and a realization of actual value by those currently here, could lead to something truly special for the hometown nine. Click here to view the article

I haven’t seen a prospect list with Jeffers in the top 30.

Wade's comps to Grossman (and I made them in the piece) are valid to an extent. He's a far superior fielder, and although the ceiling is nowhere near some of the guys behind him, I believe the floor is much higher as well.

I'm very high on Javier, but gave him just a slight bump after missing a season of development.

With the Winter Meetings well underway, signings and reports are flying in from every direction. The Minnesota Twins made their initial splash with the acquisitions of Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes. Now having the middle infield gaps covered, some thump in the lineup can be addressed. Rocco Baldelli’s projected starters have plenty of power at their disposal, but none look the part of true on-base threats. Nelson Cruz would change that. On Tuesday evening Hector Gomez reported that the two teams left vying for the services of the former Seattle Mariners DH are the Twins and Tampa Bay Rays. Cruz hits the market as a 38-year-old that will be playing 2019 at the age of 39. Despite nearing his forties, there doesn’t yet appear to be much slowdown in terms of production. During 2018 with Seattle, Cruz watched his average dip to .256 (a career low), but it was bolstered by an .850 OPS and 37 homers. There wasn’t ever a point in his career that Cruz was an ideal outfielder, but at this stage in the game he’s become a full time DH. Luckily with the Twins, there’s no need for him to ever be inserted into the outfield. On the premise of his bat alone, Cruz is among the most intriguing names for Minnesota to consider offensively. Dating back to 2014, he’s hit no less than 37 longballs, and he’s had a .356 OBP over that stretch. Right now, Jorge Polanco looks destined to be the leadoff hitter for Baldelli, and some combination of Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, and Eddie Rosario will fill out the top half of the lineup. That group has plenty of ability to lose balls in the seats, but Polanco’s .325 OBP over the past two seasons paces them. As baseball has trended towards the launch angle revolution, and adaptation for power, a remaining necessity to get on base is ever present. Even if everything breaks right from a homer standpoint for the current Twins group, there stands a reasonable expectation that many of them could be hollow, solo shots. It’s not just on-base skills that make Cruz an ideal candidate to join the Twins clubhouse, however. As a veteran who has not bounced around, he’s been someone that no doubt displays a certain presence within the clubhouse. Minnesota has been big on veteran leadership surrounding their young and upcoming stars in recent years, but that role has often been filled with aging players offering little value (Torii Hunter, Matt Belisle, etc.). In Cruz, Baldelli gets a Spanish speaking veteran than can lead by example for many of the impressionable minds he’s looking to mold. Doing so by example on and off the field must have a bit more merit. There’s little doubt that Cruz is approaching the end of his time as a professional ballplayer. Whether that means three years or five years, age always wins out. At this point in time there isn’t much reason to believe the production will dip, and that should calm any fears of agreeing to a one- or two-year deal. He’ll get paid a hefty sum, but with the open cash flow that the organization has, there will still be plenty of dollars to allocate towards pitching. Whether this pact gets done while the Twins contingent is in Las Vegas or not remains to be seen, but it would be hard to swallow a scenario in which Minnesota was just “in the hunt” again. There’s not going to be a long-term commitment here, and the dollars won’t be a showstopper. There’s a serious fit from multiple angles, and a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should be adamant about. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We’re amid the Winter Meetings, and the Minnesota Twins are putting together their active roster for the 2019 Major League Baseball season. Having turned the page on a less than stellar year, an overhaul of the coaching staff puts Rocco Baldelli as the new man in charge. Although the Twins have yet to break through at the top of the AL Central to this point, the hope is that they’re not far off. If that’s going to be a sustainable reality the farm system will need to bear fruit. Last touched mid-way through 2018, my top 15 Twins prospects is due for some updating. If you’d like to see where things stood then, look here. Below you can also find the Top 15 Prospect lists dating back to 2016. Entering the 2019 season, here’s how the list shakes out: 2016 Top 15 Prospects 2017 Top 15 Prospects 2018 Top 15 Prospects 15. Jorge Alcala RHP Minnesota acquired Alcala when dealing Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros in the middle of the 2018 season. He got in 20 innings with Double-A Chattanooga last season and it didn’t go great. The strikeout numbers were there, which isn’t a surprise for a guy who can threaten triple digits, but command became a larger issue. He’s still working as a starter, but the transition to relief could happen as soon as 2019. He’ll be 23 this season and could be an asset in late inning relief work for the Twins. As a guy who was acquired in exchange for Pressly, dominant relief work would be the situation coming full circle. 14. Luke Raley OF/1B It was Logan Forsythe that was acquired to replace Brian Dozier when Minnesota struck a deal with the Dodgers. Raley was the prospect that looked the most intriguing in the package though. He’s getting old for his level now at 24, but he should start at Triple-A in 2019. Brent Rooker is the prospect that gets the power fanfare, but Raley is looking like he should be in that conversation as well. There’s plenty of swing and miss here and refining the approach at the dish is a must, but he could profile as a fourth outfielder or nice bench bat going forward. 13. Gilberto Celestino OF The other part of the Pressly deal, Celestino is just going to be 20 in 2019. He played in rookie ball for Minnesota last year, but a progression to Cedar Rapids for the year ahead makes sense. Celestino held his own in the New York Pen league while in the Astros system, and driving an OPS back up around .800 would be a very nice development. He’s raw and yet to fill out, but this is a prospect worth monitoring. 12. Jhoan Duran RHP Picked from the Diamondbacks system when the Twins sent Eduardo Escobar to Arizona, Duran has plenty of exciting peripherals. He put up a highlight reel after joining Cedar Rapids, and his strikeout numbers only continued to rise. He’ll likely move up to Double-A at the beginning of 2019 and getting a guy that may have had his minor league breakout last year is an exciting add. 11. Blayne Enlow RHP It was Enlow that was the beneficiary of some shrewd draft strategy by Minnesota in 2017. Despite going in the 3rd round, he was a targeted draft pick and with good reason. He played all of 2018 at Single-A Cedar Rapids despite being just 19, and the numbers were plenty respectable. He did miss some time, but that’s not abnormal for a kid in his first full pro season. He needs to continue developing and the hope would be the strikeout stuff continues to play. Enlow has a shot to be a mid-level or better piece of the rotation. 10. Lewis Thorpe LHP Having returned to the mound in 2017, Thorpe turned in his first full season since 2014. With the injuries and illness behind him, he threw over 100 innings for the first time in his career. Although he’s a lefty, Thorpe isn’t just a soft-tossing contact pitcher. With strong command of his arsenal, he posted nearly 11 strikeouts per nine at both Double and Triple-A last season. Expecting him to be a depth option for the big-league club in 2019 is more than realistic. 9. Wander Javier SS Without a missed season, Javier is probably even higher on this list. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Javier has been one of the must-see type prospects in the system for a while. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2018, but he will be healthy when 2019 kicks off. Javier showed well in his Appy League debut during 2017, and as he fills out, should only become more exciting. 8. Akil Baddoo OF I’ve raved about Baddoo at different times in this space. His body has matured greatly, and he did a great job as a regular for the Kernels in 2018. Although his average wasn’t where it sat during rookie ball, the .770 OPS continues to be reflective of a guy with great plate discipline. He takes a ton of walks and started to show power with the muscle he’s put on. Baddoo is quick enough to stay in centerfield but could profile as a bopper on the corners as well. This is an exciting mix of tools to monitor. 7. LaMonte Wade OF Although lacking some of the power Baddoo may possess, Wade is another guy that can play all three outfield positions and does a great job getting on base. He owns a career .391 OBP in the minors and forces pitchers to work in order to get him out. He probably won’t start 2019 in Minnesota, but he could claim a spot as soon as needed. This is a non-switch-hitting Robbie Grossman with a much better glove. 6. Nick Gordon SS/2B We could’ve been writing a different story here had Gordon’s 2018 continued like it did at Double-A Chattanooga. Through his first 42 games of 2018, the former 1st round pick has a .906 OPS and was on his way to Triple-A. Nothing went right in Rochester, and now both Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes have been brought into the mix. The goal would be for Gordon to still take over for the Twins up the middle, but that will come after a level of mastery in Rochester is shown. 5. Trevor Larnach OF Picked by the Twins following a College World Series victory in June 2018, Larnach made it to Cedar Rapids in his professional debut season. Positing an .890 OPS split between two levels, Larnach’s bat has always been his calling card. He isn’t a centerfielder, but there’s no reason the glove won’t be good enough for the corners. As with all power guys, a strikeout tendency could be a worry, but Larnach’s 28/21 K/BB in his first 42 games is a great jumping off point. 4. Brent Rooker OF/DH Slow starts can be doom and gloom for some, but Rooker turned it on after stumbling out of the gate. He finished with a .798 OPS at Double-A in 2018 and posted a .900 OPS for a matter of months. He swatted 22 homers and all the comments regarding how much power he possessed were absolutely for real. It sounds like there’s no belief he’ll have the footwork to play first base, so he’s a left fielder or DH at this point. That said, he was drafted as a quick mover and highlighted for his bat. Minnesota could call upon him in 2019 and I’d expect him to be more than ready. 3. Brusdar Graterol RHP Following in the footsteps of Fernando Romero, Graterol is the next Twins fireballing prospect. There is some reason to believe he could end up in the bullpen, but if he harnesses his skills as a starter, he’s a top of the rotation guy. Making it to High-A Fort Myers as a 19-year-old is no small feat, and he had little problem laying waste to hitters quite senior to him. The fastball sits near triple digits, and he’s yet to experience much issue with walks. If there’s a Twins ace of the future, it could be Brusdar. 2. Alex Kirilloff OF Known as a bat first prospect out of high school, it was unfortunate to see Kirilloff miss a year of development due to injury in 2017. You’d be hard pressed to believe action wasn’t seen in a year after the 2018 he had, however. Splitting 130 games equally between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, Kirilloff owned a ridiculous .970 OPS. He posted 20 homers and owned a .392 OBP. The Pittsburgh native has all the makeup you’d want, and the tools on the field take it to another level. He’ll enter 2019 as one of the best prospects in the game. 1. Royce Lewis SS Maybe the only thing to slow the Royce Lewis hype train in 2018 was the season Kirilloff had. On his own however, the 2017 1st overall pick looks every bit as good as hoped. On top of being an incredible human being, he should enter 2019 as one of the top three or four prospects in all of baseball. His defensive ability has taken steps forward at shortstop, and his .803 OPS was more than impressive for being his first full year of pro ball. There’s no reason to expect a trip to Pensacola for Double-A won’t be in short order, and a future Twins superstar could emerge from there. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were tasked with finding infield help. They needed to replace the retired Joe Mauer, and the flipped Brian Dozier. Internal options put pretty much any infield position as an acquirable target, but in the end, second base and first base were the routes traveled. Now with Jonathan Schoop joining C.J. Cron, Minnesota has filled both needs, but there’s plenty to question here. Schoop was acquired by the Brewers during the 2018 season. The intention in Milwaukee was to keep the 2017 All-Star around for the 2019 season. With a year of team control left, his arbitration contract was almost certain to be tendered. Unfortunately for Schoop, he owned just a .577 OPS in 46 games with the Crew and find himself out on the free agent market. After making $8.5 million in 2018, the Twins getting a bounce-back candidate in his age-27 season at a paltry figure of $7.5 million, it’s hard to be disappointed. When viewing Schoop through a vacuum we can see a power hitting middle infielder that’s just a year removed from an .841 slugging percentage. He plays better defense than the Twins have employed at the position in some time, and the market itself wasn’t rich with ideal options. It’s when you look at the fit with the Twins specifically that Schoop becomes a bit more of an odd fit. Gone from the 2018 team are the likes of Dozier, Mauer, and Robbie Grossman. That trio was a mainstay in Paul Molitor’s lineup, and even with the down year from Dozier, the group provided an ability to get on base. Looking at the projected starters for Rocco Baldelli, the best OBP mark over the past two seasons comes from Eddie Rosario (.326). Given that the front office wound up with both Cron (.316 OBP 2017/18) and Schoop (.307 OBP) it’s worth considering that there may be a shift for power as opposed to plate discipline and on-base skills. There’s an argument to be made that slugging percentage can begin tipping the scales away from OBP, but you’d like to have some sort of marriage throughout the lineup. Being too heavy on one side of the spectrum seemingly would lead to a feast or famine type of offensive output. Certainly, a rebounding Miguel Sano (.352 OBP in 2017, .385 OBP in 2015) would help matters. A designated hitter that can marry on-base skills and slugging prowess could also be an avenue of opportunity. At the end of the days, Minnesota got one of the better second basemen on the market. Schoop has plenty more to like than players like Daniel Murphy or Jed Lowrie when considering all factors. At his best though, he’s a downgrade from even 2017 Brian Dozier (who wasn’t and shouldn’t have been considered by Minnesota), and the skillset that the Mississippi native used display in Twins Territory. If this is going to work swimmingly, Schoop needs to make 2018 a mirage and see the rest of the lineup help to hide his deficiency. I’d bet the Twins are done with offensive additions unless a designated hitter falls into their lap, and now it will be up to the ability of the front office to raise the water level of the rotation and bullpen. Cleveland willingly taking steps backwards for 2019 helps this organization, and although the club doesn’t appear to be kicking the door in, beginning to pry it open would be a nice sign of things to come. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Prior to the 2018 season the Minnesota Twins acquired a few free agent relief arms on one-year deals. Needing to shore up the bullpen, and close the widening gap in that area, the goal was to give Paul Molitor a better arsenal. Fast forward to 2019 and relief help is a necessary target once again. While bringing in some sort of top tier talent isn’t something to shy away from, Minnesota has had two very strong revelations play out in relief. Both Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers have developed nicely from within, but the question is can that be replicated and who’s next?Back in the 2013 Major League Baseball draft the Twins selected Kohl Stewart with the 4th overall pick. After peaking at 28th in the Baseball Prospectus top 100 in 2015, his fall from grace has been both long and hard. Stewart never possessed good strikeout stuff on the farm, but from his ERA darted the wrong way each of the past two seasons. Even with those concerns, he was the first prospect called upon down the stretch by the Twins and he turned in 36.2 IP during his big-league debut. Employing the opener strategy, Minnesota subjected Stewart to just four traditional starts. His other experience came in the form of piggybacking off an initial reliver. What’s interesting about the output though, is that Stewart benefitted by avoiding the first inning. Working as a traditional starter, Kohl posted a 6.61 ERA across 16.1 IP while never making it out of the 5th inning. In the next four games with an opener, he lasted at least five innings three times and owned a 1.33 ERA with a .424 OPS against. Regardless of the situational improvement, Stewart’s strikeout stuff didn’t change much. While going good he still tallied just a 13/9 K/BB. The .185 BABIP was reflective of a guy that generated ground balls over 55% of the time when he was on his game. A guy like Stewart has significant value if he can keep the ball in the yard and generate easy outs. By being stingy in surrendering line drives, batters were rarely able to exploit a pitcher that wasn’t setting them down. It’s not as though Stewart saw a significant jump in velocity when working in relief, after all the intention was to still have him pitch significant innings. What he did change in his latter outings was the reliance on his curveball. After utilizing his bender just 8% of the time in his four starts, he went to it nearly 14% of the time after the opener. A heavy fastball and curveball mix helped to keep opposing hitters on their toes. Recently turning 24 years-old, there’s probably no reason to completely shut the door on Stewart continuing to work as a starter. He’ll likely begin the year at Triple-A serving as depth for the big-league club. That said, Fernando Romero remains ahead of him, and both Stephen Gonsalves and Adalberto Mejia make more sense in the rotation than the pen. With Stewart stretched out some, working him into somewhat of a long man role could be an enticing possibility. It took longer than desired by fans (and likely Kohl himself) for the former first rounder to reach the big leagues. Now that he’s made his debut and we’ve gotten a taste of what it may look like, there could be a role in which he thrives to an even greater extent. As the roster evolves players are always going to look for their best opportunity to contribute. For Kohl, a relief role could unlock a heightened level of effectiveness and help the Twins to build on an area of deficiency in the process. Click here to view the article