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Alex

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Everything posted by Alex

  1. Alex
    Not really, I think both of those situations are different. Hughes was out of options but had been in the organization for awhile. Revere isn't really close to the same argument because I think it was clear the point of him playing at AAA was to get him ABs every day. This theory was supported when they picked Clete Thomas up off of waivers.
  2. Alex
    I mentioned this in the other thread, but Burroughs had 18 PA, 6 of which were pinch hits. Not really a test of a player's worth, especially if they thought he was good enough to make the roster in the first place. All that you say (not needing a lefty, and needing another IF) could have been accomplished in a different manner and when the Twins didn't have such a short bench already, especially when replaced with Butera.
  3. Alex
    If that's the choice and Mauer's hurt and won't be playing catcher, bring up Butera, fine. However, that's choice. If Morneau is out beyond Friday, they will yet have another situation where they should have put him on the DL. Even if you think they end up being right and he's ready to go Friday (I've very little confidence in that at this point), they are still carrying 13 pitchers. It should also be noted that your comparison (Butera vs. Burroughs) not two players who can't hit. It's one player who can't hit and another who we could choose to DH for instead of the pitcher and not lose much. And, to be fair to Burroughs, a lot of his ABs (6) have been pinch hitting, so he's really had no opportunity for for any consistency and only logged 18 PA. Again, though, the choice didn't have to be, nor should have been, imo, between Burroughs and Butera.
  4. Alex
    I know this is supposed to be good news since it means Morneau's injury isn't serious, but Twins will have 2 player bench for three days at least while still carrying 13 pitchers. Really?
  5. Alex
    I think its far more due to perception thanks to the way the team handled his press last year with his injuries. WPA is one single reference point and it's early in the season. There are players getting paid more and doing a lot less (Twins are playing one of those guys right now) who aren't getting the ire of their fans. It's ridiculous that he's getting this much ridicule when the Twins have to score more than four runs every night just to be in the ballgame.
  6. Alex
    Yet again we have the confusion of last night, and we agree on most points. I didn't say the titles themselves were "all" smoke an mirrors (please see, "...should be recognized as impressive"). The point about smoke and mirrors and winning the division was that some of us, myself included, probably thought the Twins were a better team than they actually were.
  7. Alex
    I actually very much appreciated their discussion on this, but I think the poster above, John, and Gleeman were arguing about different things and that their points weren't mutually exclusive. John's point that the Twins basically played to win the division and that should be recognized as impressive is something I agree with. Win your division and hoping to pull off an upset in the playoffs 6 of tens years is admirable. On the other hand, I think Gleeman's point about the Twins division titles being a bit of smoke an mirrors is just as valid, a fact proven by their lack of competitiveness in the playoffs (7 wins in 6 appearances?) as well as their record against teams outside of their division. Whether or not you think they would have done something differently if they were in another division over the course of several years, it's clear that their division titles may have led us to believe they were a better team then they actually were/are in comparison to the rest of the league.
  8. Alex

    Mauer Power

    Alex commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias

    Too high a GB percent to hit in the #2
  9. Alex
    In general, I agree, but I believe they've only given up less than 4 runs in 2 games so far this season but scored more than four in 8 (three times in the last week they scored 5+ runs and lost). Point is, it's not going to be enough runs because of the pitching staff. The hitters have shown they can get on base, and I think that they'll start scoring more runs as those hits come with two outs and/or runners in scoring position. On the pitching side, I do hope the runs will come down a little, but I also wouldn't be surprised if this pattern continues because the staff is much more of a mess and doesn't show as much in terms of potential as the hitting.
  10. Alex
    I think those instances are magnified because the pitching is so horrible. The Twins have scored enough runs to win several games but pitching, both starting and relieving has let them down. League worst in both HR and ERA, I believe. In addition, I thought the bullpen was horribly managed in the 8th. Perkins or Burton should have been in there, if not to start the inning, they should have put in instead of Gray. Also hated the bunt with Revere. Good plan if they just needed one run, but that wasn't the case.
  11. Alex
    Spring training numbers rarely mean anything (Valencia and Hughes had big ST, too.).
  12. Alex
    One more question....let's say the Twins don't have Mauer, would they have spent that money? I'm not convinced and think their payroll could easily be around $75 million instead of $100. They had the opportunity and cash to pick up a couple $5-8 million this year and chose not to. They certainly wouldn't have been out to get anyone more expensive than that like Pujols or Reyes.
  13. Alex
    IMO, you can criticize the contract, but if that's your issue, you should focus that criticism on organization. I agree that even that's hard to do for reasons mentioned. I think it's ridiculouly unfair to expect a hitter to change, especially adding power, when his track record shows that's just not the type of hitter he is. While I don't mind him playing elsewhere occasionally, the idea that you get more value out of him elsewhere is counter intuitive. In fact, 1B is probably the worst place for him to earn value on the contract.
  14. Alex
    The Twins had (and I believe currently have) the 30th ranked staff in baseball. It's definitely possible that there are pitchers on much better teams that are out of options that would be be better than what the Twins have, even if it's just to add depth in case of more injuries.
  15. Alex
    Blackburn is hopefully only out one game, and he's had two relatively solid starts, especially considering last year. Every source says there is more movement on his pitches and he's hitting his spots. Whether that will keep up or not is another thing, but he's been the Twins #2 pitcher. Again, that's not saying much, but with Baker going down, Blackburn needs to have a good season. It will be an added bonus if Hendricks and Swarzak pitch well, too, especially with an ailing and flailing Liriano, who does not look like a ML pitcher right now. Twins are going to need them all, but they should definitely be looking elsewhere as well.
  16. Alex
    Didn't understand pinch hitting for Carrol in the first place and doubly so now.
  17. Alex
    Exactly the same thing I thought. Darn good pitching and there wasn't really one that most hitters could do much with. As for people getting frustrated with Mauer, he's now gone 1-3 with runners in scoring position in this game, it's almost like what should be expected from a career .323 hitter....that is if you understand that clutch hitting is a myth. I'm sure people it's more about frustration over the teamin general, but hitters, no matter how good, are going to have streaks where they don't get hits, runners on or not.
  18. Alex
    And those kind of writers should, because they're essentially paid bloggers who don't write as frequently and confuse the idea of access with facts. (I like Mackey, btw, but there are others I've stopped reading). I remember a Star Trib writer speculating that Joe Mauer was "depressed" based on his access, though that access didn't include Mauer. I also remember another Strib commentator criticizing Twins for not playing hurt and praising those that did. However, I took 10 minutes, unpaid out of my day, to fact check his article with statistics. player for player those that he praised as playing hurt were horrible when they played hurt (worse than replacement value). Finally, and more recently, take a look at what access gained with regard to Jason Marquis. Ryan told the reporters he was a guy who throws strikes (paraphrasing). I didn't see anyone but bloggers fact-checking this statement, which can be done literally in one minute, to find out he in fact has the same career walk-rate as Liriano. In the end, I really like Nick's take on the whole thing, too, that there really shouldn't be an argument as both are valuable. I can't expect paid sportswriters, who are covering many different avenues, to go as in-depth as the bloggers. However, those bloggers do require the initial access and reporting that comes from the paid outlets.
  19. Alex
    The problem with the argument that these anecdotes show some kind of evidence is that you're also never going to hear the opposite kinds of stories. No one is going to bash their current hitting coach and say they were better off under a previous one. If Cuddyer changes his swing and hits worse with the Rockies (a lot of reasons this is unlikely of course) he's not going to be complementing the Twins hitting staff... That's not to say I don't have concerns about the coaching staff. In fact, I think to have way too much affinity for the types of players the coaches themselves used to be, but that doesn't mean that these anecdotes are good evidence.
  20. Alex
    I'm just glad he's swinging a bat. I've been worried since last year, and it's honestly tough to expect too much from him this season after not really playing much in the last couple years. While I realize his salary is a big factor in expectations, I think seeing him play 120+ games should be the goal with steadily increased production throughout the season. He's not going to be a .300 30 HR guy this season.
  21. Alex
    I've been worried since last season, so I think it's just good that he's swinging a bat....
  22. Alex
    Well, if you haven't seen this, it would give you an additional perspective for a couple of those that have complained about it: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hitters-age-like-wine-power-like-cheese/ So, Kubel and Cuddyer pay have been being hit by two factors at once. They were playing in a more pitcher friendly park and they were on the downward side of their power peaks. Ironically, in the first season at Target Field, I remember Cuddyer had been pretty vocal this issue early on. At the time he had only five HR (or something like that) and every one had come at Target field. From everything I've read (analysis of the same hitters at various parks) the park is pitcher friendly but not quite to the extent that people seem concerned about it. Parker did a great analysis (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/131334289.html) of what kinds of hitters could be more likely to see success in Target Field. You should read it if you haven't! The fact is, too, that besides Twins playing at Target Field, the sample size is pretty small still. It may be need a couple more seasons before it can be said just how pitcher friendly it is.
  23. Alex
    Interesting perspective and a nice comparison in terms of the value the Twins may have been getting as compared to other teams and what we may have to consider with regard to the Twins in the future. A couple of thoughts, though: -It would even better to see numbers here, and especially important to see what other clubs were getting for the money with similar pitchers. -In terms of WAR, remember that zero is a replacement player and not "average." There's actually also a vast difference in the value of 1 point of WAR (and thus 2 and 4 are very different). A WAR 2 is really the minimum WAR you want/expect from a regular player in the MLB (everyday position player or regular part of the rotation). A 4 is considered a good player. As an example, I think we'd all agree that Pavano had one of his worse years as a Twin, and with an ERA of 4.3 but he still posted a WAR of 2.0. -Finally, I think that Thrylos lays out some additional things needed when you have pitch to contact pitchers, but I'd add that pitch-to-contact pitchers can do well over the course of the regular season (especially in the AL Central), but when it comes to playing against heavy hitting playoff teams, you need pitchers who can miss bats.
  24. Alex
    Not really. I'm basing mine on his last year and really a lack of improvent during it, as well as his inability to even look decent in a weak league over the winter. I hope I'm wrong but his trend, as well as continued evidence of it is concerning.
  25. Alex
    At this point, I'm afraid Liriano just isn't ever going to be that good of a pitcher. He wasn't good last year (and while I loved seeing his no-no, it had to be one of the most painfully pitched) and his winterball numbers were weak, even for that league, not to mention for a major league pitcher. I think, for whatever reason, poor coaching, injury, or mentally, he's lost his way.
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