Alex

Obviously not, and if he continues to hit this way, then that changes the discussion a bit. However, it's only 92 AB. As mentioned I hope it's indictative of actual improvement and not due to small sample size. As eluded to, the Twins judged Parmelee on a similar sample size that included Spring Training and a short debut and he clearly wasn't ready. Dozier's big league potential at the plate was evaluated based on a season at AA (age 24 no less). So, while I'm definitely excited about how Revere is doing, he hasn't done enough to prove yet, IMO, that he's turned it around enough to be an MLB regular starter. Nor, in the context of this discussion, does success over 100 ABs suddenly alter the idea that the Twins have depth at OF.

I definitely hope Revere's done something that has changed his swing definitively and he's going to hit for a higher average and keep getting extra base hits, and it definitely looks like it's possible, but we do have to be leery of a small sample size at least for the moment with him (I assume I don't need to quote the number of players who looked good for a small sample size this year, earning them a spot, only to find out they weren't ready). As for Revere's defense, I don't think there can be much doubt that he'll be a fielder with better range than Span, but that arm has been getting run on like crazy.

I guess I consider that minor league depth or prospect depth, not overall organizational depth. When all the true talent/hope is below AA and just drafted, there's a lot that can happen between now and then, as we've seen with Benson and Hicks. There's not a single player there that we can project to be a legitimate starter in the next two years.

I wondered when someone would bring him up. Span's an anamoly. Most players don't put up better numbers in the majors than they do in the minors, though he seemed to figure things out at AAA.

Fair enough. As it was Seth replying to a thread I started, it seemed that the "he" in your thread was me. Thanks for the clarification.

Wow. It was an honest mistake and totally missed his post. No need to be a jerk about it. As mentioned, I browsed the recent forum topics as I hadn't read much here in a few days to try and avoid duplication. I didn't comb through the blogs, though. As for the reading Souhan bit, it wasn't just him, but there were a lot of people on this site who were putting lineups together in a thread for 2014 or 15 or whatever that included Hicks, Revere, and or,Benson, as well as most of the discussion about Span being about traded because we have outfield depth. I definitely didn't mean to start a should we read Souhan or shouldn't we discussion.

Doh! Sorry I missed this one Seth. Normally I try to keep track and even did a little search of the forums for a similar topic as I hadn't been around much this week.

Well, I wasn't trying to be critical of Souhan in particular because I think it's a relatively accepted idea in the mainstream.

I just read Souhan's recent article, in which he suggests trading Span due to outfield depth. I thought about the fact that it is pretty widely accepted in a lot of places that the Twins have outfield depth, but do they really? I'm not sure what this means exactly in terms of how far beyond 2012 we're looking, but I guess the conclusion I came to is that we have a lot of young outfielders, but true outfield depth, imo, would be a situation where we have multiple outfielders that are fighting for playing time because they are high quality players. They certainly don't have that now, and I also don't see it in the next couple of years. Left field is the only solid spot for the next couple of years, with Willingham there and then Span in center (assuming he's not traded). After that, this team really doesn't currently have a legitimate RF and has a couple of #4 outfielders on the bench. I think that Revere could be starting for this team, but I'm not convinced he's a starting caliber outfielder yet. In the minors, people like to talk about Benson and Hicks as the promising future out there, but they are both currently at AA and they're looking anything but promising right now. Maybe Parmelee has had some promising stretches, but nothing convincing yet that he's an everyday player (it was nice to see him play well in AAA again and will be interesting to see what he does as he arrives back here). For comparison, take a look at Michael Cuddyer's minor league numbers and compare them to any of our current prospects. Cuddyer is a solid, maybe slightly above average, starter in the majors. Only one season in the minors did he post an OPS below .800, his first season in AA as a 20 year-old. For his remaining 3 years in the minors he proceeded to crush minor league pitching at the AA and AAA level. Setting aside whether we should trade Span (I think that's a different, though related debate), I know we like to look to the future thinking we have OF depth and then slot guys like Revere, Benson, and Hicks into the big league lineups a couple years down the road. However, I really think that we're overrating how much depth we have in the minors in the outfield, at least right now and for the immediate future.

Ugh...so many lineups full of borderline major leaguers, and what's scary is that I think they are actually accurate. Like I mention above, this is far more depressing than hopeful. Joe Benson, for example is currently rolling with a .500 OPS is AA... I knew it was bad, but not this bad until this thread and I started looking at some of these guys. None of the "new" starters project to be above average. Cuddyer

No Sano in 2014? Probably a bit early. Dozier may well be starting for this team in 2014, but I don't think that will be a great sign if he is, though we don't have many SS or 2B options that look promising either. Yuck, the future of this team is even depressing.

I understand the point, but I think he's actually hurting and might be on low pitch count anyway. Additionally, it's not a good idea to drag the game out when you might only be talking the difference of another inning.

Good thing the bullpen had a day off.

@Jokin, Gleeman and I think similarly on this, at least from what I can tell in a recent appearance he had on PA's show, where he said these numbers aren't Mauer numbers and that Mauer isn't worth $23 million. We're going to have to agree to disagree on why fans are booing as there's just no hard evidence, but I wasn't speaking to just that. It's always seemed to me that Mauer's type of hitting has always been undervalued to some extent by the large fan base and media, imo, even when he wasn't making $23m. I'll also say that I think the local mainstream media's lock-step with that notion has not helped Mauer, either. Aside: It's a big reason I was glad to see Souhan's article and his change of tone. I especially like that he seemed genuinely upset about the poorly chosen headline for the article. Some of these guys, though (including Souhan), have been outright rude to people who have a different opinion on the value of statistics in baseball than they do, so I'm not surprised with the vitriol with which some people view their writing. It's very tough to win someone back when you tweet about fans of sabermetrics needing to get off their mom's couch in their basement. As for Mauer's approach and his preference for "walks," that again goes to what we, individually, value. I prefer a walk to a lot of things that a hitter can do. Mauer currently has a 70% chance of getting out when he puts the ball in play, so a walk is better than %70 of the alternatives. His "approach" also got him 4 IBB this season, putting him on pace for something close to his highest of any season, and that's often with Willingham hitting behind him! A lot of people complain that Mauer's "approach" to take the first pitch allows pitchers to throw him a first pitch strike "all the time." Mauer sees first pitch strikes 52.6% of the time. Only 17 hitters in the entire MLB see fewer first pitch strikes. 17! for I know I've discussed this before and that it wasn't a particular stat you talked about, but it definitely illustrates the reason people need to look at the numbers in some cases simply watching an at-bat. Finally, as for other catchers that you'd rather have now, well, sure. It's very easy to see who it would be worthwhile to have in hindsight (and yeah, I jumped lines with Molina), but that could be done with several of the Twins players, and for that matter, players on any team.

I guess I didn't read all this in Nick's statement. I got the impression he was talking about the player value stat, and I think that's fine. I don't think that the stats crowd believe that Mauer is performing to norms or trying to find hidden value. Most wouldn't argue that he's been as valuable as he has in the past, but I think that most of us would argue that he's more valuable than the booing fans, or even a large portion of the mainstream media think. Much of this is because, imo, HR are far overvalued. I actually liked the Souhan article. If you're going to talk Billy Beane, you really should understand that many, many teams have now copied his approach and have far more money with which to do it. Obviously, there's more to it than just stats as they tell you what a player has done, but not what he will do. However, it's worth pointing out here that almost all of this discussion is about what Mauer has done this season (or points to evidence) and the fact is that he's done a lot more than watching a single at bat or even a few games can tell you. Rangers fans certainly don't need stats to tell them Josh Hamilton is valuable, obviously, but the stats won't lie to them there either. Eyes do lie, though. For example, one of the biggest complaints about Mauer, especially early in the season, was that he wasn't getting hits with runs in scoring position. You can actually look these numbers up, as there are places that keep records of these kinds of things. At the time, Mauer's numbers with RISP were actually far above his season totals, and they still are. For my part, if I had only watched the games and not looked up the numbers, I'd have actually been in agreement with people that were saying he was terrible with RISP. The other thing a lot of us (those of us especially tempted by statistics!) said was that it was cautionary to judge his entire contract on the first portion of the season. I'd say it's still early to do that, and to some degree we've been proven right. The triple slash line you quoted on the front page has improved in every area. Does this mean he's Joe Mauer we hoped for or that his contract value will be met? No. His groundball rate is especially concerning, as many have written about, and might inform the rest of his hitting. Overall, though, my point throughout this thread is that there's too much simply "eyeballing" of Mauer going on and that much of the Twins woes are being laid upon him unjustly, and that frankly, he's still a very valuable hitter. If you've thought he was very valuable in the past, he's still very valuable now, and it might surprise people to know that this is not his worst season (even throwing out last year). It's one of his worst three, but probably not his worst. As for catchers having better years, I'd agree there are certainly some: Molina, Ellis, and Pierzynski, all of whom are having career years and playing catcher full time. Though I'd be hard pressed to say I'd prefer them over Mauer long term (for different reasons: Molina's not cheap either and might be having the best season he'll have), Ellis at 31 is cheap but his numbers seem to be a bit of an anamoly, and AJs got to be about done) . I'd have a hard time choosing 6 that are hitting better than Mauer this season.

Are people really arguing it's not a pitcher's park? Based on the data so far, I think it's clear it is. How much of one is debatable. Now, the question is, would moving the fences in help anything? I really don't see how, and I don't know why such a big deal is being made of it, as if it would solve this team's problems.

I agree, especially with the fault of such a small evaluation period. The one thing I did notice is that Doyle has a higher K/9 ratio than. He others mentioned here, but in the end they all do look similar.

Heh. Mistype there. Meant changes that help your hitters hurt your pitchers.

Parker did a good analysis some time back that showed Target field rewards pull hitters more than power alley hitters with regard to home runs. The Twins hitters in the past have not been pull hitters. The fences aren't the answer, IMO because any change made for your hitters negatively impacts your hitters.

Iirc, Span has less range but is still better overall in CF. that might change as Revere gets more exp, but it migh be an issue with how Revere plays the position. I'd have to look it up as I'm not sure, though.

I'd also agree that I have no problem with fewer attempts. Getting caught has one of the biggest negatives in run expectations while success does not add much. That's not to say its never worthwhile.

In order to steal, players do need to reach base and I think most of our players with speed have a problem with that except Span.

Yeah, I'd say it's been erratic.

Yuck. Off night for Dozier. Hopefully he'll figure it out tonight yet. Edit: Wow, terrible call on the lead off walk for Walters.

2nd inning AB for Dozier might have been his ugliest of the season. Everyone's entitled, though.