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Alex

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Everything posted by Alex

  1. That's fine if you disagree, but your counterpoints continue to make the case against having high expectations for Dozier based on AA numbers as a 24. The players you mention have seen their status fall and their big league stints were uninspiring. My points are far less a knock on Dozier than that I think way too many expectations have been laid upon him. Just because Dozier made the majors after three years doesn't mean he should have and that's the point about using his AA numbers as a 24 year old to evaluate him. They didn't tell us anything about how ready (or in this case, not ready) he was for the majors. On top of that, we're talking about 78 games in AA (hence my us of the phrase "sustained success"). Personally, I'd have liked to see him at AAA for a full season (not unlike what they did with Parmelee even though they botched that a couple of times) and that would have given a much better picture of where he was at. At this point, I honestly think this was, at best, a lost and wasted year of development for him. At worst, this could have ruined him for the long run. Regarding the Florimon comparison. If you are going to have a SS who can't hit, it's probably better to have one that has a better arm and better range. That said, it's not really an issue of Dozier or Florimon (or Esocobar); the Twins MI situation is dire and there's not anything in the near future that looks to change that.
  2. He's on the older end in terms of actual major league prospects, so citing a bunch of guys who are older and in AA in a relatively poor farm system doesn't really contradict the argument. The Twins will likely have real prospects in AA next year (or shortly after) who are much younger.
  3. Fair enough I guess. I was going a bit off of memory, and it does look like his May numbers were a bit better. His three games in Sept, he actually hit pretty well also, but overall an unimpressive body of work this season. Either way, it does look like we agree, sadly, on his upside.
  4. This may be splitting hairs, but his earlier higher average in AAA was due to an amazing first two weeks. He was in the start of the slump when called up. I've also pointed out elsewhere, as have others that it's very dangerous to put too much stock in those A+/AA numbers as he was among the oldest players in those minor leagues. .As I've said, he has yet to show sustained success at a "developmentally appropriate" level. So, imo, his overall struggles both at AAA and the majors are not all that surprising, but I definitely agree that the Twins handled him extremely poorly. I don't think they've scapegoated him, but for an organization that is usually patient with players in the minor leagues, and even if they weren't his original call-up wasn't warranted or needed.
  5. The additional issues with Dozier and the hints from the front office regarding Dozier are about not being in the right position before the play starts and some other issues that involved decision making and not stats. Not sure how big of a deal these are, but my guess is that considering Gardy was pretty high on him, I'd bet that they played just as big a role as his lack of hitting (though hitting below .200 in AAA certainly didn't help). That's speculation on my part, but I don't think he gets called back up unless he starts hitting well, clears up those issues or in the case of injuries.
  6. Dozier's going to need to hit I think before he gets a shot to start again. Needs in the middle infield are high, and unless one of these guys is going to hit better in the majors than he has in the minors, none should be taken as a serious solution.
  7. If Revere isn't a good hitter... The list of good hitters gets pretty tiny. Revere is probably one of the more overrated hitters in the organization because he puts up a good average. This doesn't mean he's a good hitter and certainly it doesn't mean he's a good hitter overall. Among qualified CF, he's 5th in average but that's about as good as it gets. Despite 5th in average, he's 10th in OBP, bottom 4 is SLG and wOBA, and has an OPS below .700. While I like Revere as a player and, as mentioned, has some other tools that give him value, I don't think he should really be held up as a shining example of the hitters the Twins minor league produces.
  8. There are literally just two (maybe three) above average proven hitters in that MLB list at their position. Cuddyer, Kubel are what you'd get from most corner outfielders. Revere and Parmelee have yet to prove anything yet, and while Revere has an interesting skillset, he's not a good hitter overall. Span has proven he can get on base (he's the maybe) but hasn't been able to put together a full good season in three years. It's also frighteningly apparent that the Twins haven't been able to produce a respectable slugger since Morneau. That may change in the near future, but I'd argue that "churning out very good hitters for ten years" is a bit of an exaggeration. I can't think of a season in the last 10 years where they had a fearsome lineup.
  9. I was personally impressed by the intestinal fortitude it took to hold him (or Burton) back in case he was needed to save the 9th while strategically using mediocre relievers when a far less meaningful situation occurred in the 7th: no outs, two on, tie game...
  10. Great summary. The AAA competition issue is baffling to me. If these other pitchers are better than Slama, why don't they actually, you know, pitch better than him?
  11. I'm very curious to know if Anthony Slama is aware is something like 25 pages of forum threads on him over the course of the season! It's an impressive movement that may say more about how frustrated people are with the decision making of the organization and lack of trust in it in it.
  12. The logic of course, being that forcing a hitter to put the ball in play means that most of them get themselves out 7/10 times; whereas a walk never gets them out. So, yes, the oft stated pitch to contact phrase is also about walks. Obviously, strikeouts are the ideal, but I remember an interview with Verlander last year where he said realized he can go deeper into games when he isn't trying to strike every batter out.
  13. These two items aren't mutually exclusive.
  14. Now, Twins start the no DL game with him again, though doesn't probably matter with Sept. callups soon.
  15. And how have most of those guys worked out? Yep, Slama had a bad seven innings in the majors but since then he pitched well. I assume that if you're ready to make a judgement on Slama after that, you'd also like to keep Dozier where he's at?
  16. I hope you caught my sarcasm and I just missed yours...Obviously, the point was that as you say a 5.71 helps no one. If he's pitched multiple innings occasionally it's helped no one because he's essentially left the game early other times.
  17. Things the box score tells me: Of 182 pitchers with 30 or more innings, Jeff Gray's 5.71 ERA is not the worst. He is 171st. Jeff Gray has 49 Appearences and 52 IP. 7 outings have gone 2 IP or more. Slama has 27 G and 30 IP, but I couldn't access data. Either way those ratios are very similar in terms of how much they help the rest of the pen in terms of fatigue.
  18. It's true that numbers don't always translate and that Slama could just have figured out AAA hitters. He still posts a lot of walks and that may be a concern. But conversely, if a hitter was hitting, say .344/.463/.661 in AAA, you'd be wanting to see what he could do in the majors, right? Even if it was only sixty games and his recent few opportunities in the majors were relatively poor. It's also true that Slama has become somewhat of a lightning rod for the Twins talent evaluation, possibly past the point of reason, but how effective has that talent evaluation and their methods of doing so been in the last couple of years?
  19. No, he can't become a 6 year minor league free agent until after the 2013 season, which makes me feel even more horrible for him. he was drafted in 2006, but he didn't sign until early in the 2007 season, after his senior season of college (final year of draft-n-follows). if they don't put him on the 40 man roster (or if they do for September and then take him back off again), he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. But then again, when the Twins took him off the 40 man last November, no one claimed him. Hard for me to understand this one. In 8-9 years of following the Twins farm system pretty closely, nothing has confused me more than the Slama Situation. Thanks for clarifying (originally my post but I think getting rid of the double quote caused the error). It sounds like he could still be gone for nothing. For those that believe we should trust the Twins scouts, how have they done lately? If you look at how poorly they've done with them, it's arguable that they should probably abandon that approach and that those who have followed just the stats (because that's all we can) have been a bit more accurate this year, unfortunately.
  20. If we judged every player on his first five games (and in Slama's case that would be seven innings) we'd have very few major leaguers. There's no reason the Twins can't give him 20-40 innings between now and the start of next year of years to see if they're opinion is wrong. The guy costs nothing and he's going to be able to walk after this season unless they move him to the 40-man roster. It just doesn't make sense.
  21. Statistics can also tell you exactly what we see, and that's part of the point of the article. If we believe that the Twins are right in trotting out a player like Gray while Slama rots in Rochester, we have blind faith. I've no problem trusting scouting if it turns out to be correct, but in the Twins case, I think we can see that it's not going very well.
  22. Great article, and I was just about to post a shorter version in the game thread. It's less about a guy like Gray being horrible than it is about the concern this puts in the Twins ability or method of evaluating players. People who were paying attention to the evidence early on haven't been surprised that Willingham has done well (maybe even better) or that that Doumit has been a successful signing. However, there was a ton of concern about Marquis, Dozier being ready, and Jeff Gray. The only person who has defied the evidence has been Deduno.
  23. Strike that campaign. Jeff Gray has been charged with Crimes Against Humanity and is being sent to the Hague Court in the Netherlands to face trial. Does MLB allow players to be removed from the 40man for that or is it more like 15 day DL?
  24. Gray definitely solidified my vote for him as chairman of the #FreeAnthonySlama campaign. Chairman of said campaign gets a free trip to Rochester...
  25. The Twins seem like a very static organization right now. With that in mind, my prediction is they keep Morneau and end up seeing him leave to FA after another disappointing season next year for the Twins. They may not spend on starting pitching but they should, otherwise we're just "Sitting Still for Sano."
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