Alex

Plouffe is playing hurt. This is what happens when players play hurt.

Somehow I don't see the Sox getting rid of one contract like that for another, even if it's only a year, and then giving up prospects in addition. Boston got a great deal here, and my point was the Twins missed out, as reports say they were contacted again this week about Morneau by LA.

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal. That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

Morneau is one of my favorite Twins and it saddens me to see how things have gone for him (, and this goes double so for what I'm about to say (though great to see him on the mend). There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect? What we do know is that he is not worth $15M do The irony here, and maybe the missed point, is that I actually believe the way Parmelee is playing and their comparable salaries, you're likely to get more for him than Morneau. In my opinion, if you can trade Morneau for a SP prospect and shed $15M, you do it; but I really don't see the Twins getting an offer like that. It's a no-brainer. I'd say the exact same thing is true of Parmelee. However, I don't think he's worth that either and thus no way a player making $15M can be either with the track record of injuries Morneau has and the fact that while he's hitting great, he's really not worth $15 at 1B.

I think this topic, and thus the original article, is preposterous. I really like Joe C., but this was one of his more disappointing articles. Mauer, first and foremost, doesn't make outs, and he's one of the best in the league at that. That's because of his approach at the plate and that approach at the plate is why he has a high average; he swings at pitches that he knows he can either hit well or are strike 3. You can't separate those two things. Those of you that say he should have swung because he has a high average with RISP are missing. He changes this approach and he's less likely to get a hit. Now focusing on the at-bat, assuming we agree that he had one pitch to hit, we really don't know what he was looking for. I'd personally give Mauer the benefit of the doubt due to his success and assume that it wasn't the pitch he was looking for.

Either gotta be about confidence as Dozier said or a message that even though there's no one pushing him, he can't coast. He doesn't strike me as someone who would thinheir benefit from the latter, even though I don't think he's really shown anywhere that he'll be a true everyday player in the bigs.

I mostly agree with Mackey though I think, as some have pointed out, his argument uses extremes and focuses mostly on the negatives in FA and spending, and the Twins added several positive pieces that way, too. In the end it is all about baseball decisions. Right now, though, I think the payroll is the focus because there are three ways to add talent to a team: the draft, trades, and free agency. The first is over and help from any draft still appears to be a couple years off. The Twins didn't make any impactful trades In terms of adding youth and talent, though maybe they will in the offseason. Which leaves only really free agency, and the fear becomes that they will cut payroll again, with the fear that they could be worse.

Exactly, and I'd add willing to give something back in return, which may not happen. At this point, I don't see the reason to free up his salary as it doesn't sound like the Twins will use it, and selling off Morneau for cheap won't put people in th seats. I'd like to see three conditions for the Twins to pull the trigger in the offseason. 1) They have a plan to do something with the money. 2) Parmelee continues to hit. 3) Someone is desperate enough to give something in return. Otherwise, why not just wait until next year's trade deadline? It's a bit of a gamble but if he continues to hit and stays healthy his demand should be way up as he'd be a great addition for another team and $7m might be more palatable for a team looking at the playoffs.

Rookies struggle at the plate, certainly. Morneau was a 900+ OPS hitter in the minors, Revere was a .300+ hitter at all levels, so while their early struggles are expected, it definitely wasn't surprising that they figured it out this year. Plouffe was consistent throughout the minors until he was 25 where he started crushing the ball at AAA. I very much hope Dozier turns out like Plouffe. I just don't see the evidence for it, and while Dozier's struggles don't surprise me this year, I also won't be surprised if they continue. As for fielding, I don't have the numbers but I agree with you that errors don't tell the story. Dozier's errors in particular, though, seem to come on plays that he should make. His UZR is -2.7, though, 18th in the majors, so it's not like he's making up for his bat with his glove. I agree he's likely the Twins starter simply by default for the next couple of years but I think in general people are a bit too optimistic about him.

I don't disagree totally, but you'd think that if he'd have hit at AAA.

It will be interesting to see if there's any demand for Morneau at all even if he keeps hitting like he is. His contract is so big and teams are still going to have question marks about him that I think the market will be limited. Mackey tweeted that they should move him for a pitcher this offseason, which I think is pretty funny. I don't see anyone taking his $14M contract, health questions, and giving something up decent return as well. I like Morneau but the gain for the Twins in moving him would be saving money. Which, to my mind means that Parmelee isn't going to have a chance to get a decent number of ABs barring an injury.

That's sort of my point. Our hopes rest on him and so do the Twins, but I think that middle infield may be a high position of need among several but maybe only second to starting pitching.

Back to Dozier, I obviously hope he performs very well and it would mean good things for the Twins if he did, but I look at the evidence a little differently than those that think he can be more than a utility player, sadly, that would mean a lot of trouble for th Twins. Dozier's success has not been sustained and has come when he is older than much of the competition, so I'm worried his success is a mirage. The first season he hit well was rookie ball with an OPS at .837. But, he was 22, pretty much the top end of the age spectrum there where most players are 18-20. If you're a 22 year-old in rookie ball who hopes to be in the majors, you'd probably better be crushing the ball. His second successful hitting season was at AA as a 24 year-old, but even that season was split with 40 games at high A-ball. His numbers were similar between both, so that was good to see. While 24 is more in the middle for AA ball, IMO, a player that has potential to be a major league starter should be further along. For example, look at Twins prospects Hicks and Arcia. Both are younger than Dozier and are handling AA pitching just fine. So I'd like to see evidence of sustained success at a level commiserate with his age and development. For me, at least AAA seems like the right level for him to be showing His brief stint there wasn't impressive and he's very clearly overmatched in the pros. Do those of you that think he's going to be a legit starter/full time player have evidence for comparison that show this? For example, Bartlett was mentioned, but he hit consistently from 2003-2006 in minors, and from 2005 posted far more acceptable OBP In the pros form 2005 on (25 years old). He's a great comparison from a developmental and age perspective but was much more consistent in the minors.

Better get it done with the first five tonight...though I like Caroll for a big hit.

The book by Tom Tango. It's derived from actual numbers.

Two solid hits, and two hits off pretty good pitches. That happens, but he shouldn't have had to get 4 outs, and the fact that Dozier's error was a two base error wasn't insignificant either.

Inning would be over if it weren't for Dozier.

It certainly does, though Buxton is much further away than the first two, and those first two aren't projecting to be major league starters right now.

Somewhere these the conversation got muddled, though we will have to disagree on Span's value. My point wasn't that I think we should necessarily hold onto Span, but that we shouldn't be disappointed if we don't get starting pitching (and I don't expect to) for him. That doesn't mean he might not bring something else that is interesting or useful. However, my whole point of this topic was not really about trading Span. It was more about the fact that when people talk of trading Span as well as other topics (like the draft), part of the discussion is OF depth, and I don't think our OF depth should really be considered because it doesn't really exist.

Nice, something I said must have struck a nerve there to account for that much detail (and yes, I get how it works). Well, we'll see if Span's apparent value (the player we were discussing) to another team garners something like this. I really don't see it, considering that the last offer we heard was for a closer. Maybe Ryan will be able to get more than that.

I think this is pretty much what I think about him. He tends to think use information he gets from access as facts, when he should be checking that the information with, well, real facts.

Span is not worth a solid starting pitcher. Starting pitching is just too valuable. Ask yourself if you were a GM, would you trade a starting pitcher for Span. If you're answer is yes, then give me some examples of a team and a pitcher. That said, I'm actually fine if the Twins trade Span for good minor league prospects at infield positions, but that has nothing to do with having depth at the OF positions. I think they're at a point where they need to start selling current pieces for overall prospect depth. I think the Twins have depth at first base and catcher, but you're right in that if there is depth anywhere, it is the OF, but simply having a lot of OF in the minors, of course, isn't true depth -- everyone has a lot of young OF in their minors.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. My perspective,though, was that these players haven't shown evidence (except in very small stretches) that there is reason to. Taking a look at their development, they don't have the same record that potential ML OF show in the minors. In fact, most of their limited success in the minors has come when they are more experienced than the competition. Until one of them shows that they have made some significant change, the Twins can't pretend they have even a single future starting caliber OF of the bunch. BTW, the minor point regarding Souhan's comment was that he believed Span should be traded due to outfield depth. So, my point is that if any decisions are made now about perceived outfield depth, those decisions are being made far to hastily. Hope that makes sense.

I agree, the sample size is much bigger, but as you mentioned it isn't good when you include those other 400. My point was the sample size of his success is small. As for other thoughts, for Revere to equal Span's contributions at leadoff, he has to hit around .330 unless he starts taking more walks. Plouffe , Mastroianni, Parmelee in right (if Span is traded) don't really equal a quality MLB starter unless they get significantly better.

Ironically, I'm often critical of him for just the opposite, he focuses too much on the character of a player (Cuddyer, Slowey, Dozier) as a condition for which we should keep/move them. But, yes, he definitely lacks rigor on a regular basis.